A Nexus Approach
for Sustainable Intensification
Holger Hoff, Huiyi Chen, Guoyi Han
Stockholm Environment Institute
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
CEWP Nexus Workshop WWW 3 September 2013
Outline:
What is the nexus?
Why do we need a nexus approach?
How to implement it?
Where to implement it – examples
The Ningxia case
What is the nexus?
The nexus refers to integrated or systemic approaches across sectors:
generating co-benefits and increasing productivities across resources ,
mobilizing untapped potentials, e.g. via recycling, cascading use of resources,
improved land configurations etc.
previous examples of integrated approaches
- ecosystem approaches (CBD)
- integrated water resources management (GWP)
- integrated pest management
- multi-functional systems (IAASTD), e.g. crop-livestock systems
- ecological sanitation
BUT: these approaches have been sectoral, lessons have not been learned,
upscaling and transfer is missing
Why do we need a nexus approach?
a resource constrained and environmentally limited world:
growing demand for biomass (food, feed, fibres, fuel….) & natural resources
ecosystem degradation & climate change add pressure
risk of transgressing critical thresholds,
across scales from local sustainability boundaries to planetary boundaries
-> do the Chinese Red Lines also pose critical thresholds?
sustainable intensification (not another „green revolution“)
for economic development today,
without compromising future food, water, and energy security,
diversity and resilience
How to implement a nexus approach?
start from nexus assessments: resource availabilities & productivities
today & future
toolbox e.g. WEAP (water), LEAP (energy), AEZ (land)
partnerships between sectors, strengthen bridging institutions
entry points for mainstreaming nexus principles into new
(water, agricultural, energy, climate and other) strategies and plans
economic incentives for reducing negative externalities across resources,
sectors and regions, e.g. payments for environmental services
nexus solutions, reducing losses & increasing synergies, win-wins
e.g. ecosystems as natural infrastructure, conservation agriculture
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example upper Blue Nile:
entry points:
Ethiopia‘s Growth and Transformation Plan,
Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy
improved landscapes for local and export production for food and biofuel,
higher productivity, income, local food and energy security
(e.g. bioethanol for cooking)
foreign direct investments for improved agricultural productivity
reconciling downstream water demands
and upstream land (and water) development
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example MENA region:
integrating climate adaptation and mitigation
soil and water conservation
for improved green water productivity and climate resilience
renewable energy for seawater desalination
guiding foreign direct investments (in Africa) for win-wins
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example Mauritius
sugarcane for ethanol / bioenergy production
Howells et al. 2013
Where to implement a nexus approach?
example Ningxia
rapidly increasing demand
for food, energy etc.
climate change
may add
pressure
River runoff (million m 3 )
natural resources, e.g. water,
and ecosystems and their services
are limited
35000
30000
25000
Average 1987-2000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Average 1956-2000
0
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
A nexus approach in Ningxia
forest
irrigation
grassland
steppe
forest/meadows
A nexus approach in Ningxia
What does the red line on water quantity (total withdrawal) indicate?
A sustainability boundary?
similar story for China as a whole
What does the red line on water quantity (total withdrawal) indicate?
Liu et al. 2013
A sustainability boundary?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
need for increasing water productivity,
projected to accelerate according to red line
irrigation efficiency coefficient
How has that red line been defined? From projected food demands and water availability?
similar story for China as a whole
need for increasing water productivity,
projected to continue according to red line
Liu et al. 2013
How has that red line been defined? From projected food demands and water availability?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs:
is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
how much more land is required for meeting the irrigation target ?
how much land is required for biofuels?
how much land is converted to forest (afforestation)?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs:
is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
how does this increase in land demand affect other ecosystems, e.g. grasslands,
and their ecosystem goods & services (e.g. livestock, carbon, biodiversity)?
Cultivated land, woodland , grassland and afforestation this year
300
Land Area (10000ha)
250
200
Cultivated land
Woodland
150
Grassland
Minimum cultivated land in 2013
Afforestation this year
100
50
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2007
2008
2010
2011
2013
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs:
is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
does the water red line account for aquatic ecosystems / environmental flows?
how is the red line for land (see previous slide) defined?
is it consistent with the objectives of the grain-to-green program,
anti-desertification programs and other land use changes?
how do these cumulatively affect water, land and other resource productivities,
carbon sequestration and other ecosystem services?
is there any sustainability boundary for land?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs:
is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
16 large-scale coal power bases planned, predominantly in western areas of China
Production of Primary Energy (10000 tons of SCE) and Its Composition
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
Hydropower, Windpower
and Photovoltaic
4000.00
Crude Oil
3000.00
Raw Coal
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
is this development consistent with the coal cap?
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs:
is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
16 large-scale coal power bases planned, predominantly in western areas of China
additional water demand from Ningdong coal base
(on top of additional irrigation water demands) by 2015 in billion m3:
coal mining
coal fired power generation
chemical production from coal
Total
provincial industrial water
withdrawal in 2010
0,153
0,189
0,044
0,386
0,41
Greenpeace
A nexus approach in Ningxia
assessing tradeoffs:
is water sector planning consistent with land, ecosystem and energy planning?
how much more energy will the agricultural intensification require
(e.g. pumping of water, fertilizer, machine use?
what about the hydropower target and additional bioenergy production
(e.g. in response to the coal cap / energy red line), and their water and land
requirements – are they accounted for in the red lines for water and land?
year
hydropower, wind
power, photovoltaic
(10000tons of SCE)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
33,44
63,62
68,74
64,97
76,36
77,82
98,25 111,32
-> need for integrated planning
according to resources availabilities and productivities
2011
A nexus approach in Ningxia
How does Ningxia contribute to th national strategies and goals?
e.g. do regional red lines from Ningxia and other regions
add up to the national red line?
export production is not always taking place
in the most resource productive regions:
The upper Yellow River is a net export to RoC (rest of China) while having lower
water productivity than RoC
Feng et al 2012
A nexus approach in Ningxia
The nexus approach can become a catalyst for cooperation across sectors
Ministry of
Water
Resources
Energy
Ministry of
Housing and
Urban-Rural
Development
State Forest
Administration
Food
State Forest
Administration
Water
National River
Commisions
Water
Ministry of
Land and
Resources
Ministry of
Agriculture
Ministry of
Environmental
Protection
WRB
Nexus approaches needs concerted efforts, because of they’re knowledge intensive
and require innovations