Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
1
Iran—Nuclear Threat ........................................................................................................................... 2
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Iran Doesn’t Have Enough Uranium ...................................................... 3
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Iran Doesn’t Have Uranium .................................................................... 3
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Opposition Movements Solve................................................................. 4
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Computer Virus Solves ........................................................................... 5
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Computer Virus Solves ........................................................................... 6
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: New Sanctions Solve .............................................................................. 7
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Talks Solve ............................................................................................. 8
Iran Threat – Regional Hegemony ....................................................................................................... 9
Iran Threat – Naval Power Projection ................................................................................................ 11
Iran Threat – Naval Power Projection ................................................................................................ 12
Iran Threat – Naval Power Projection ................................................................................................ 13
Iran – Threat – Naval Power Projection ............................................................................................. 14
Iran – Threat – A2: Sanctions Solve .................................................................................................. 15
North Korea – Threat -- General ........................................................................................................ 16
North Korea – Threat – Provocations ................................................................................................ 17
North Korea -- Threat – Provocations ................................................................................................ 18
North Korea – Threat – A2: Northern Economic Downturn ............................................................ 19
North Korea – Missile Threat ............................................................................................................. 21
North Korea – Nuclear Threat – A2: China Cooperation Solves ....................................................... 22
North Korea – Nuclear Threat – A2: China Cooperation Solves ....................................................... 23
North Korea – Nuclear Threat – A2: Can’t Fit Nukes on Missiles .................................................... 24
North Korea -- No Threat -- A2: South Korean Troop Reductions Now .......................................... 25
North Korea – Missile Threat ............................................................................................................. 26
North Korea –No Threat – A2: US/SK Relations Weak Now ........................................................... 27
North Korea – No Threat – A2: Missile Launch ................................................................................ 28
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
2
Iran—Nuclear Threat
Iran concealing military components of its nuclear program
Agence France Presse – English, February 25, 2011
IAEA has new info on alleged nuclear weapons work by Iran
The UN nuclear watchdog said Friday it had received new information on allegations of possible military
dimensions to Iran's controversial nuclear programme.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has been investigating the Islamic republic's disputed atomic
drive for a number of years now, with a whole range of issues still unresolved, among them allegations
that Iran had undertaken studies to build a nuclear payload for a missile.
In a restricted new report, a copy of which was obtained by AFP, the IAEA said Iran was still refusing
"to discuss a number of outstanding issues related to possible military dimensions to its nuclear
work."
Indeed, "additional information... has come to the (agency's) attention August 2008, including new
information recently received" which gave rise to "further concerns," the report said.
"Iran is not engaging with the agency in substance on issues concerning the allegation that Iran is
developing a nuclear payload for its missile programme," the report said.
Iran concealing military aspects of its nuclear program
Associated Press Online, February 25, 2011
UN says has new info on alleged Iran nuclear arms
The U.N. nuclear monitoring agency said Friday that "recently received" information is adding to
concerns Iran may have worked on developing nuclear arms.
At the same time, a report by the organization The International Atomic Energy Agency noted that
Tehran continues to stonewall its attempts to follow up on that information, which points to possible
experiments with components of a nuclear arms program.
An annex to the confidential report listed "the outstanding issues which give rise to concern about possible
military dimensions to Iran's nuclear programme." It included design work on a nuclear payload;
experiments with explosives that could detonate such a payload and other work that could be linked to
making weapons.
The list contained no new information, with much of its contents based on material that first surfaced seven years ago on a laptop United States intelligence agencies say was spirited out of Iran by a
defector. A senior international diplomat familiar with the report said it was annexed to summarize suspicions for the 35-IAEA board member nations the report was meant for.
Still, the listing was unusual. Part of a longer annex of "areas where Iran is not meeting its (international) obligations," it also appeared to reflect IAEA frustrations that Iran has rejected its attempts to
follow up on the allegations since August 2008.
New intelligence continues to come in to the agency strengthening those suspicions, despite Tehran's stonewalling, said the report, obtained by The Associated Press.
"Based on the agency's analysis of additional information since August 2008, including new information recently received, there are further concerns which the agency also needs to clarify with Iran,"
said the report, which was also sent to the U.N. Security Council.
Tehran is under four sets of U.N. sanctions for its refusal to stop uranium enrichment which can create both nuclear fuel and fissile warhead material and other instances of nuclear defiance. It insists
its program is peaceful and meant only to power a future generation of reactors.
While the report did not specify how recent its new information was on possible weapons programs experiments, a senior international official familiar with Iran's nuclear program said the agency
received fresh intelligence within the last three months. He asked for anonymity because his information was confidential.
"Iran is not implementing a number of its obligations including ... clarification of the remaining outstanding issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to its nuclear
programme," said the report.
"Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation to enable the Agency to provide credible assurance
about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that
all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities."
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
3
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Iran Doesn’t Have Enough Uranium
The Boston Globe, February 25, 2011, Iran secretly searching for uranium, leaked report says, p. 5
Iran is expanding its covert global search for the uranium it needs for its nuclear activities, and a key
focus is Zimbabwe, according to a new intelligence report acquired by The Associated Press.
The report is in line with international assessments that Iran's domestic supplies cannot sustain its
nuclear program, which could be turned toward making weapons.
An intelligence report from a member country of the International Atomic Energy Agency - shared with the
AP by an official from that nation - said Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi met secretly last month
with senior Zimbabwean mining officials ``to resume negotiations . . . for the benefit of Iran's uranium
procurement plan.''
``This follows work carried out by Iranian engineers to map out uranium deposits in Africa and assess
the amount of uranium they contain,'' said the two-page intelligence summary.
The report - confirmed independently by an official from another IAEA country - was shared as an Iranian
delegation led by the head of the Cooperative Ministry Abbas Johari was meeting yesterday with
``agriculture and mining interests'' in the Zimbabwean capital Harare.
The official confirming the intelligence described the Salehi visit as part of an international Iranian
effort that stretches across Africa, Asia, and South America and may involve more than a dozen
countries. Both officials - whose countries follow Iran's nuclear program - asked for anonymity in
exchange for discussing intelligence matters.
The assessments are important because they call into question recent Iranian assertions meant to
dispel doubts about the country's capability to sustain and expand its uranium enrichment program.
Iran says it is enriching solely to power a future network of nuclear reactors.
But it has been targeted by UN sanctions because enrichment can also create fissile warhead material
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Iran Doesn’t Have Uranium
Iran has enough uranium for 20 to 30 nuclear weapons
The Associated Press, February 24, 2011 AP Exclusive: Iran hunts for uranium
With the completion date of any Iranian nuclear reactor network decades away, Tehran may have other
pressing reasons to look for replenishable ore supplies, said Fitzpatrick, now head of nonproliferation for the
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Iran, he said, now has enough uranium gas to make 20 or 30 nuclear weapons, should it choose to turn
what it says is a peaceful program into making such arms. If that supply were destroyed by a military
attack or sabotage, "that could put a serious crimp into Iran's ability to reconstitute the program."
"That's why for strategic reasons its not surprising that Iran is continuing to try to acquire additional
sources," he added.
Many of the world's uranium producers or countries with large reserves are in Africa. And while some, like
South Africa, observe U.N. sanctions slapped on Iran in efforts to crimp its enrichment programs, there are
doubts about more reclusive countries.
The intelligence summary said "part of Iran's plan is to gain a foothold in Zimbabwe and other African
countries such as Congo, Nigeria (and) Senegal." The official who provided the summary said Salehi also
visited Senegal in mid-January, apparently to patch up tensions created by allegations that Iran was
supporting Senegalese separatists with weapons.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
4
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Opposition Movements Solve
Opposition movements support the nuclear proogram
Antiwar.com, February 21, 2011,
Nationalism, Democracy, and the Arab Awakening
What complicates the picture in the case of Iran, for example, is outside pressure on the regime by the US,
which reinforces actual grassroots support for the ruling elite and retards the growth of the opposition. The
American and Israeli-led international campaign to isolate Iran on the grounds that it has no right to obtain
nuclear power is opposed by both the mullahs and the oeGreen movement that is trying to overthrow the
dictatorship. If the Greens took power tomorrow, Iran's nuclear program, such as it is, would remain in place
" as would the hostility of the West and the sanctions that are slowly strangling ordinary people in that
country.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
5
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Computer Virus Solves
Computer virus has been neutralized
Iranian Government News, February 18, 2011
Iran neutralizes nuclear malware: Report
Iranian scientists have successfully neutralized the impact of a sophisticated malware designed to
disrupt Tehran's nuclear program, says a recent report.
According to a draft report released by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS),
Iranian scientists have shown vigilance in keeping the virus from disrupting their low-enriched
uranium production.
"It did not stop ... or even delay the continued buildup of low-enriched uranium," the ISIS report reads.
In July 2010, Western and Israeli media claimed that the Stuxnet, a computer worm that is viewed as
potentially the most destructive piece of computer malware discovered, has targeted industrial computers
around the globe, with Iran identified as the main target of the attack.
The reports insisted that the country's Bushehr power plant was at the center of the cyber attack.
Iranian officials, however, dismissed such claims, saying that the Stuxnet was detected early by Iranian
experts and thus caused no damage to the country's industrial sites.
The Stuxnet malware causes extensive physical damage to centrifuges used in nuclear fuel production.
The virus is so sophisticated that experts believe it is the work of a highly-funded state-sponsored project.
The New York Times reported in a detailed article in January that the Stuxnet was primarily an Israeli
project specifically aimed at disrupting Iran's first nuclear power plant in Bushehr. However, the highly
secretive and sophisticated effort also involved cooperation as well as technical and financial assistance by
the US, Britain and Germany.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
6
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Computer Virus Solves
Suxnet had no impact on Iran’s nuclear program
The Washington Post, February 16, 2011
Iran recovered swiftlyin wake of cyberattack, p. A11
VIENNA - In an underground chamber near the Iranian city of Natanz, a network of surveillance cameras
offers the outside world a rare glimpse into Iran's largest nuclear facility. The cameras were installed by U.N.
inspectors to keep tabs on Iran's nuclear progress, but last year they recorded something unexpected: workers
hauling away crate after crate of broken equipment.
In a six-month period between late 2009 and last spring, U.N. officials watched in amazement as Iran
dismantled more than 10 percent of the Natanz plant's 9,000 centrifuge machines used to enrich
uranium. Then, just as remarkably, hundreds of new machines arrived at the plant to replace the ones
that were lost.
The story told by the video footage is a shorthand recounting of the most significant cyberattack to
date on a nuclear installation. Records of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N.
nuclear watchdog, show Iran struggling to cope with a major equipment failure just at the time its
main uranium enrichment plant was under attack by a computer worm known as Stuxnet, according to
Europe-based diplomats familiar with the records.
But the IAEA's files also show a feverish - and apparently successful - effort by Iranian scientists to
contain the damage and replace broken parts, even while constrained by international sanctions
banning Iran from purchasing nuclear equipment. An IAEA report due for release this month is
expected to show steady or even slightly elevated production rates at the Natanz enrichment plant over
the past year.
"They have been able to quickly replace broken machines," said a Western diplomat with access to
confidential IAEA reports. Despite the setbacks, "the Iranians appeared to be working hard to maintain a
constant, stable output" of low-enriched uranium, said the official, who like other diplomats interviewed for
this article insisted on anonymity to discuss the results of the U.N. watchdog's data collection.
The IAEA's findings, combined with new analysis of the Stuxnet worm by independent experts, offer a
mixed portrait of the mysterious cyberattack that briefly shut down parts of Iran's nuclear
infrastructure last year. The new reports shed light on the design of the worm and how it spread
through a string of Iranian companies before invading the control systems of Iran's most sensitive
nuclear installations.
But they also put a spotlight on the effectiveness of the attack in curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions. A
draft report by Washington-based nuclear experts concludes that the net impact was relatively minor.
"While it has delayed the Iranian centrifuge program at the Natanz plant in 2010 and contributed to
slowing its expansion, it did not stop it or even delay the continued buildup of low-enriched uranium,"
the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said in the draft, a copy of which was
provided to The Washington Post.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: New Sanctions Solve
Russia blocks new sanctions
Thai Press Reports, February 21, 2011, IRAN/RUSSIA MOSCOW OPPOSED TO NEW SANCTIONS
AGAINST TEHRAN
Section: General News - Russia renewed opposition to the imposition of any new round of sanctions
against Iran over Tehran's peaceful nuclear program, stressing that such embargoes are futile and
unconstructive.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Alexander Lukashevich, made the remarks in a press conference on
Thursday, adding that Moscow is strongly against a new round of US-backed UN sanctions imposed on the
Islamic Republic of Iran.
He further said that any sanctions against Iran are futile and unconstructive.
"Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a press conference in London last Tuesday announced that
Russia opposes sanctions against Iran and deems them as futile," Lukashevich added.
He noted that the unauthorized sanctions against Iran are outside the framework of decisions of the
UN Security Council and they are unacceptable.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had voiced his opposition to a new round of sanctions imposed on
Iran at a joint press conference with his British counterpart British Foreign Secretary William Hague held in
London last Tuesday.
"New sanctions mean creating economic and social problems for the Iranian nation and hence Russian
government cannot support such measures," Lavrov said.
Despite the rules enshrined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) entitling every member state, including
Iran, to the right of uranium enrichment, Tehran is now under four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions
for turning down West's calls to give up its right of uranium enrichment.
Tehran has dismissed West's demands as politically tainted and illogical, stressing that sanctions and
pressures merely consolidate Iranians' national resolve to continue the path.
Washington and its Western allies accuse Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons under the cover of a
civilian nuclear program, while they have never presented any corroborative evidence to substantiate their
allegations. Iran denies the charges and insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.
Tehran stresses that the country has always pursued a civilian path to provide power to the growing number
of Iranian population, whose fossil fuel would eventually run dry.
Iran insists that it should continue enriching uranium because it needs to provide fuel to a 300-megawatt
light-water reactor it is building in the southwestern town of Darkhoveyn as well as its first nuclear power
plant in the Southern port city of Bushehr. - FNA
7
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
8
Iran – Nuclear Threat – A2: Talks Solve
Talks failed
IPS - Inter Press Service, February 16, 2011, U.S.: AS TALKS STALL WITH IRAN, U.S. STEPS UP
PROPAGANDA WAR
Egypt's revolution appears to have stiffened the spine of the Barack Obama administration when it comes to
Iran.
President Obama - and to an even greater extent, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton - have toughened their
language against the Iranian government.
At the troubled Persian service of the Voice of America, a U.S. Foreign Service officer has been hired to
direct broadcasting to Iran. As a consequence of the mass protests that ousted Egyptian President Hosni
Mubarak, Washington has begun to "tweet" in Farsi as well.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that the
administration was more inhibited when protests broke out following Iran's disputed 2009 presidential
elections because "Obama still held out hope of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. Today I think
the White House has come to the conclusion that they can't reach a modus vivendi with a regime that
seemingly needs them as an adversary."
Two rounds of nuclear talks between Iran, the United States and the other permanent members of the
U.N. Security Council plus Germany ended last month without progress or even a date for further
discussions. Then popular protests erupted in Tunisia and spread to Egypt, drawing attention from Iran's
nuclear program and refocusing it on democracy and human rights.
Officially, U.S. policy toward Iran is not regime change but a change in regime policies. However, there has
been a clear shift in tone in recent days.
In a series of interviews on Monday - as Iranian protesters returned to the streets of major Iranian cities en
masse for the first time in more than a year - Clinton called the Iranian government "hypocritical" for
praising the Arab revolts while crushing its own.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
9
Iran Threat – Regional Hegemony
Middle East revolts have shifted power to Iran at the expense of US interests and allies
The International Herald Tribune, February 25, 2011, Amid turmoil, Saudis sweat while Iran is sitting
pretty; Tehran's clout increases, as West-aligned nations sidetracked by instability, p. 6
The popular revolts shaking the Arab world have begun to shift the balance of power in the region,
bolstering Iran's position while weakening and unnerving its rival, Saudi Arabia, regional experts said.
While it is far too soon to write the final chapter on the uprisings' impact, Iran has already benefited from
the ouster or undermining of Arab leaders who were its strong adversaries and has begun to project
its growing influence, the analysts said. This week Iran sent two warships through the Suez Canal for the
first time since its revolution in 1979, and Egypt's new military leaders allowed them to pass.
Saudi Arabia, an American ally and a Sunni nation that jousts with Shiite Iran for regional influence,
has been shaken. King Abdullah signaled his concern on Wednesday by announcing a $10 billion increase
in welfare spending to help young people marry, buy homes and open businesses, a gesture seen as trying to
head off the kind of unrest that fueled protests around the region.
King Abdullah then met with the king of Bahrain, Sheik Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, to discuss ways to
contain the political uprising by the Shiite majority there. The Sunni leaders in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain
accuse their Shiite populations of being loyal to Iran, a charge rejected by Shiites who say it is intended to
stoke sectarian tensions and justify opposition to democracy.
The uprisings are driven by domestic concerns. But they have already shredded a regional paradigm
in which a trio of states aligned with the West supported engaging Israel and containing Israel's
enemies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, experts said. The pro-engagement camp of Egypt, Jordan and
Saudi Arabia is now in tatters. Hosni Mubarak of Egypt has been forced to resign, King Abdullah II of
Jordan is struggling to control discontent in his kingdom, and Saudi Arabia has been left alone to face a
rising challenge to its regional role.
''I think the Saudis are worried that they're encircled - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon; Yemen is unstable;
Bahrain is very uncertain,'' said Alireza Nader, an expert in international affairs with the Rand
Corporation. ''They worry that the region is ripe for Iranian exploitation. Iran has shown that it is very
capable of taking advantage of regional instability.''
''Iran is the big winner here,'' said a regional adviser to the U.S. government who spoke on the
condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to reporters.
Iran's circumstances could change, experts cautioned, if it overplayed its hand or if popular Arab movements
came to resent Iranian interference in the region. And it is by no means assured that pro-Iranian groups
would dominate politics in Egypt, Tunisia or elsewhere.
For now, Iran and Syria are emboldened. Qatar and Oman are tilting toward Iran, and Egypt,
Tunisia, Bahrain and Yemen are in play.
''If these 'pro-American' Arab political orders currently being challenged by significant protest movements
become at all more representative of their populations, they will for sure become less enthusiastic about
strategic cooperation with the United States,'' Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett, former National
Security Council staff members, wrote in an e-mail.
They added that at the moment, Iran's leaders saw that ''the regional balance is shifting, in potentially
decisive ways, against their American adversary and in favor of the Islamic Republic.'' Iran's standing is
stronger in spite of its challenges at home, with a troubled economy, high unemployment and a determined
political opposition.
The United States may also face challenges in pressing its case against Iran's nuclear programs, some
experts asserted.
''Recent events have also taken the focus away from Iran's nuclear program and may make regional
and international consensus on sanctions even harder to achieve,'' Mr. Nader said. Iran's growing
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
10
confidence is based on a gradual realignment that began with the aftershocks of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
By ousting the Taliban in Afghanistan, and then Saddam Hussein in Iraq, the United States removed two of
Iran's regional enemies who worked to contain its ambitions. Today, Iran is a major player in both nations, an
unintended consequence.
Iran demonstrated its emboldened attitude this year in Lebanon when its ally, Hezbollah, forced the collapse
of the pro-Western government of Saad Hariri. Mr. Hariri was replaced with a prime minister backed by
Hezbollah, a bold move that analysts say was undertaken with Iran's support.
''Iraq and Lebanon are now in Iran's sphere of influence with groups that have been supported by the
hard-liners for decades,'' said Muhammad Sahimi, an Iran expert in Los Angeles who frequently writes
about Iranian politics. ''Iran is a major player in Afghanistan. Any regime that eventually emerges in Egypt
will not be as hostile to Hamas as Mubarak was, and Hamas has been supported by Iran. That may help Iran
to increase its influence there even more.''
Iran could also benefit from the growing assertiveness of Shiites in general. Shiism is hardly
monolithic, and Iran does not speak on behalf of all Shiites. But members of that sect are linked by
faith and by their strong sense that they have been victims of discrimination by the Sunni majority.
Events in Bahrain illustrate that connection well.
Bahrain has about 500,000 citizens, 70 percent of them Shiite. The nation has been ruled by a Sunni family
since it was captured from the Persians in the 18th century. The Shiites have long argued that they are
discriminated against in work, education and politics. Last week, they began a public uprising calling for
democracy, which would bring them power. The government at first used lethal force to try to stop the
opposition, killing seven. It is now calling for a dialogue while the protesters, turning out in huge numbers,
are demanding the government's resignation.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
11
Iran Threat – Naval Power Projection
Collapse of Mubarak government means Iranian ships are now in the Suez canal
Investor's Business Daily, February 25, 2011, Iran's Evil Encirclement Of Israel, p. A14
Gunboat Diplomacy: The arrival of Iranian warships in the Mediterranean amid Mideast chaos raises
the ante in Iran's conflict with Israel and the West. What if the next Gaza flotilla has an escort?
Iran apparently agrees with the statement that one should never let a crisis go to waste; it lets you do things
you couldn't get done before.
The political demise of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and the uncertainty of that country's future
relationship with Israel has let Tehran move a couple of pieces on the Mideast chess board.
Those pieces are: (1) the Iranian guided missile frigate Alvand and (2) the 33,000-ton supply ship
Kharg. Together, they represent the first Iranian warships to transit the Suez Canal in three decades.
Mubarak, as part of Egypt's peace agreement with Israel and partnership with the U.S., had barred
Iran from using the canal.
Iran's deputy navy chief, Rear Adm. Gholam-Reza Khadem Biqam, describes the mission as a "training
exercise" that could also involve maneuvers off the coast of Lebanon. The ships could remain based in the
Syrian port of Latakia for up to a year, according to reports.
Tehran's gunboat diplomacy is a way of telling the West what it can do with its sanctions and that it
intends to be a player in the region. It's a warning to Israel that any pre-emptive strike on its nuclear
facilities would have serious consequences, as would any further attempt to put the squeeze on Hamas
in Gaza.
Last year a six-ship flotilla tried to break Israel's blockade of the Hamas-run Gaza Strip. Israeli commandos
boarded the ships, which were suspected of trying to bring more than food and medical supplies to the
Hamas-ruled enclave.
Would such a flotilla be escorted by Iranian warships the next time around?
Through its creation Hezbollah, Iran has transformed Lebanon into a satellite. Lebanese democracy is
all but gone, with Hezbollah having obtained virtual veto power in the Lebanese Cabinet and with the
selection of Hezbollah-backed Sunni billionaire Najib Mikati as prime minister to succeed Saad Hariri.
Hariri is the son of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, whose assassination prompted a U.N. tribunal that is
expected to name members of Hezbollah as responsible. Iran and Syria, which regards Lebanon as a lost
province, have long tried to destabilize Lebanon.
Hezbollah fought a five-week war with Israel in 2006 using weapons supplied by Iran and transported
through Syria. Long-range rockets bombarded northern Israeli towns and villages, even reaching the Israeli
port of Haifa. Hezbollah is believed to have stored 45,000 rockets and missiles for a future offensive.
During that conflict, Hezbollah fired what was believed to be a Chinese-built CS-802 anti-ship missile that
struck the Israeli corvette Hanit off the coast of Lebanon, killing four sailors and seriously damaging the
sophisticated warship. Hezbollah is believed to have been assisted and trained by Iranian Revolutionary
Guards.
The current naval move by Iran comes shortly after a visit to southern Lebanon by Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a statement by Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah that he was
confident his forces would "capture Galilee" in a new war with Israel.
We missed opportunities to save Lebanon's democracy and undermine Iran's dictatorship when dissidents
rocked Tehran vainly looking to the West for help. We were too busy apologizing for our sins to notice.
As North Africa unravels, we, and Israel, face the prospect of an unrestrained Hamas and Hezbollah, both
armed and supported by a soon-to-be nuclear-capable Iran, threatening to keep Iran's promise to "wipe the
Jewish state off the map."
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
12
Iran Threat – Naval Power Projection
Iranian Suez ships a threat to Israel
Human Events Online, February 23, 2011, Iran Warships Steam Up the Suez Canal
Iran sailed warships up the Suez Canal for the first time in 30 years this week in what is widely
interpreted as a clear exercise of gunboat diplomacy aimed at reassuring allies in Syria and Lebanon,
showing Iran's new influence with the post-Mubarak government in Egypt and testing Israel at a time of
spreading unrest throughout the Middle East . "The passage of the Iranian ships is part of the
comprehensive struggle that Iran is conducting against the West for domination and control in the Middle
East" Israel's Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom was quoted as saying by AP. "The objective of the
Iranian provocation is to signal to the leaders of the Arab world who the new leader is in the Middle
East". Israel and the U.S. have led international efforts to block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons that
could transform the radical Islamic state into a regional superpower. Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad has repeatedly threatened to "wipe the Jewish State off the map" and has recently been
extending his global reach, which now stretches into parts of Africa and Latin America . Iran's missilecarrying frigate Alvand and the 33,000-ton supply ship Kharg entered the canal from the Red Sea at 05:45
GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) on Tuesday, exiting into the Mediterranean at 13:30 GMT. The move could
signal a shift by Egypt, which controls the Suez crossing.
Its recently deposed president, Hosni Mubarak, who was a close ally of Israel and the U.S., banned the
Iranian Navy from using the canal. He was toppled in a popular uprising two weeks ago. Iran's naval
squadron, equipped with three helicopters and a combined crew of almost 400 men, was headed for Syria,
where the ships were expected to dock at the port of Latakia on Wednesday, and remain for an unspecified
period of time that could extend up to a year, according to some reports. Iran's deputy navy chief, Rear Adm.
Gholam-Reza Khadem Biqam, has described the mission as a "training exercise" that could also involve
maneuvers off the coast of Syria's neighbor, Lebanon. The move seems part of a wider military operation
by Iran and Syria to reinforce a base from which they can project into the Mediterranean and support
a new government in Lebanon controlled by their terrorist ally, Hezbollah. Iran and Syria have been
close allies for decades. They have remained largely unaffected by Middle Eastern revolts that have toppled
governments in Egypt and Tunisia and shaken pro-U.S. regimes in Yemen and Bahrain. Bahrain serves as
the U.S. Fifth Fleet's naval base in the Persian Gulf. Iran quickly put down street protests that erupted in its
capital, Tehran, last week. No major unrest has broken out in Syria, which is consolidating its regional
position through Hezbollah proxies assuming power in Lebanon following the resignation of pro-West Prime
Minister Saad Hariri last month. Hezbollah has fought several wars with Israel along Lebanon's northern
border and is believed to have 45,000 rockets and missiles stored for a future offensive. "The current naval
move by Iran is occurring after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to southern Lebanon and his
hostile statements against Israel" in January, observed Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said that last week that he was confident his men would "capture Galilee"
in a new war with Israel. Israeli officials fear that reinforced Iranian military activity around its borders
could also strengthen the radical Islamic Hamas movement on the Gaza Strip. A naval presence on the
eastern Mediterranean might also allow Iran to intervene in the current civil war in Libya, where longtime
dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi is being strenuously challenged by rival Muslim rebels who have established
their own caliphate, or Islamic system of government, in the port of Benghazi. To read more of a special
report detailing Iran and it's threat to security across the globe, click here.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
13
Iran Threat – Naval Power Projection
Iranian ships in the Suez canal demonstrate a drive for regional hegemony
Daily Outlook Afghanistan, February 24, 2011, New Emergence in M.E. Power Politics
It brings Iran an enormous chance for seeking bigger role in M.E. power politics. Soon after fall of
Mubarak regime, Egypt agreed to let two Iranian naval vessels transit the Suez Canal. The move,
however was set earlier than public uprisings, came despite expressions of concern by Israeli officials. Iran
has said the vessels are heading to Syria for training and that the request to move through the canal is in line
with international regulations. It would be the first time since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution that Iranian
warships pass through the Suez Canal, which links the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. As expected, the US
said it will closely monitor the progress of the warships. The move had been widely expected and Iranian
officials have insisted the request is in line with international regulations. A Suez Canal official said Egypt
can only deny transit through the waterway in case of war. Their passage into the eastern Mediterranean
comes as the Arab world and the Middle East grapples with a vast wave of unrest and protests that is
radically changing the political landscape, and leaving Israel increasingly concerned about its security. On
Sunday February 20, 2011, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the ships' arrival
in the region as an Iranian power play. Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Iran's
attempt to send warships through the canal was a provocation. But the country's state-funded Channel
One television said Lieberman had spoken out of turn and that Israel's defense ministry "had preferred to
ignore" the ships' approach. In the meanwhile, Israel put its navy on high alert and said it would respond
immediately to any "provocation". A senior Israeli security source was reported as saying Israel would "not
initiate any action" against the Iranian vessels, but if the Iranians deviated in any way that could be
considered "a provocation" there would be an "immediate Israeli response." Animosity between Iran and
Israel has grown under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly spoken of the Jewish
state's demise. Israel also accuses Tehran of arming and funding Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
Israel, which has the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear arsenal, suspects Iran of trying to
develop atomic weapons under cover of a civilian nuclear program. Analysts believe that Iranian
warships sailing to areas out of its territory, for whatever reason may be, indicate the country's
ambition for bigger engagements in the regional power play. It will further irritate Israel and certain Arab
countries.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
14
Iran – Threat – Naval Power Projection
Suez ships will destablilize the Middle East
Associated Press Online, February 20, 2011, Israel eyes Suez trip of Iran warships with worry
Iran's first attempt in decades to send warships through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean on
Europe's and NATO's southern flank could further destabilize the Middle East, a region already reeling
from an unprecedented wave of anti-government rebellions.
Egypt's new military rulers, who took power from ousted Hosni Mubarak a little more than a week ago, have
granted two Iranian warships passage through the strategic waterway something Israel has made clear it
views as a provocation. Still, Egypt appeared to have no other choice because an international convention
regulating shipping says the canal must be open "to every vessel of commerce or of war."
Iranian warships have not passed through the Suez Canal since 1979.
The vessels bound for Syria are not expected to enter the canal before Tuesday or Wednesday, according to
maritime sources in Egypt. On Sunday, the frigate Alvand and the supply ship Kharq were still near the
southern entrance to the canal.
The canal linking the Red Sea and the Mediterranean enables ships to avoid a lengthy sail around Africa.
The Iranian ships are headed for a training mission in Syria, a close ally of Iran's hardline Islamic
rulers and an arch foe of Israel. In Syria, officials at the Iranian embassy said it would mark the first time
in years that Iranian warships dock in a Syrian port.
Iran is suspected by the U.S. and Israel of gearing its nuclear program to develop weapons, something
Tehran denies. Israel considers Iran an existential threat and is watching the warships' movements with
growing alarm. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran on Sunday of trying to exploit recent
instability in Egypt and told his Cabinet he views Iran's moves "with gravity."
The request by the Iranians to send the warships through Suez is a test of the foreign policy intentions of
Egypt's new military rulers, the gatekeepers of the canal. Mubarak, an ally of Israel and the U.S. who ruled
for nearly 30 years, was toppled Feb. 11 by a popular uprising and the country is now run by a military
council. Mubarak was considered a bulwark in the region against Islamic extremism.
"Iran wants to say to the world, to the U.S., Israel and other countries in the Mideast that it has reach
not only in areas close to it but also farther away, including in the Mediterranean," said Ephraim Kam
of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel.
He said Iran is also signaling to Israel that it is prepared to protect its allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in
Lebanon on Israel's northern and southern flanks.
A senior Iranian naval commander told an Iranian news agency already several days before the Jan. 25 start
of the revolt in Egypt that Iran planned to dispatch warships to the Mediterranean, via the Suez Canal. The
commander said candidly at the time that the mission was to gather intelligence on the region and train Navy
cadets to protect Iranian cargo ships and oil tankers against attacks by Somali pirates.
But Iran appears to have more far-reaching objectives, including asserting itself as a regional power
and testing whether Egypt's new rulers will stick to Mubarak's pro-Western line, analysts said.
Iran's influence has grown in recent years, with the political rise of its proxies Hamas in Gaza and
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and its close alliance with Syria. At the same time, Israel lost the friendship of
Turkey and the nature of its with post-Mubarak Egypt remains uncertain.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
15
Iran – Threat – A2: Sanctions Solve
Sanctions empirically fail
Trend Daily Economic News, February 23, 2011 Iran's oil storage capacity in the Persian Gulf to increase
The storage capacity for crude oil in Iranian Persian Gulfs Kharg oil terminal expected to increase by
four million barrels once new storage facilities come on stream in two years, Mehr News Agency
reported.
Presently Iran's Kharg oil terminal contains more than 40 reservoirs with the storage capacity of about 22 million barrels of crude oil.
Earlier the managing director of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company (NIOPDC), Farid Ameri said that by building new storage tanks, oil products storage capacity will be increasing to 13 billion liters during the first half of next Iranian calendar year (starting March 21, 2011).
According to Ameri, current oil products storage capacity amounts to 11.5 billion liters and will increase by five billion liters to 16.7 billion liters at the end of 2016.
" Creating 600 million liters storage capacity is underway and it is expected NIOPDC to implement new projects this year in order to increase storage capacity by 300 to 400 million liters," Ameri said .
"O ur priority for building new storage tanks is getting help from private sector and using banking facilities," Ameri added.
According to Ameri, Iran 's oil products storage capacity will be increasing to 13 billion liters over the next six months.
The European Union and the United States last year targeted the Iranian energy sector through a
series of sanctions meant as punishment for Iran's controversial nuclear program.
Iran responded by converting many of its petrochemical plants to gasoline production in order to meet
domestic demand. The government also announced it was taking steps to end subsidies that keep
gasoline prices considerably lower in Iran than in the rest of the world.
Sanctions antagonize Iran, sanctions easily circumvented
The Christian Science Monitor, February 20, 2011, US and Iran could become strategic allies - with
India's help; Tighter sanctions and military threats haven't swayed Iran over its nuclear program.
What the West really needs is genuine rapprochement - the kind that India is especially suited to
facilitate.
The standoff with Iran over its suspected nuclear weapons program continues. While Washington is arming
its Gulf Arab allies in a process of 'strategic containment,' hardliners are seeking tighter sanctions and
even military options to coerce Iran into compliance.
But these options remain untenable. The "Gulf Security Dialogue" simply postpones the inevitable,
neglecting Iran's unconventional strengths. Sanctions antagonize Tehran, while Russia, Turkmenistan,
China, and even smugglers fill the void in Iran's energy sector.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
16
North Korea – Threat -- General
Leadership transition increases North Korean threat risks
Voice of America (VOA), February 18, 2001
South Korean and U.S. officials are expressing renewed concern about North Korea. The concern
comes as there are indications the power transition in the reclusive communist state is accelerating and
that Pyongyang has completed a new missile test launch facility.
Military and government officials in Seoul and in Washington say they are closely monitoring North Korea.
They say there is heightened concern of possible violence, given Pyongyang's history of belligerent
action in the years before the country's founding leader, Kim Il Sun, prepared to hand power to his
son, Kim Jong Il.
Father, son
Regional analysts note that Kim Jong Il's heir apparent, Kim Jong Un, is being more prominently featured in
official activities and is quickly moving up the leadership ranks. His father, believed to be beset by health
problems, celebrated his 69th birthday Wednesday.
South Korea's prime minister, presiding over an annual defense meeting Friday of top military and
government officials, warned of possible incidents because of Pyongyang's economic hardship and
diplomatic isolation. Kim Hwang-sik called on the South's military to be "fully prepared" to respond to
attacks from the North.
The top U.S. military commander in the Pacific, Navy Admiral Robert Willard, said Thursday that any
provocative moves toward South Korea could be part of the leadership transition in Pyongyang.
"Our concerns are that we're in a period of a compressed timeline for Kim Jong Il to train Kim Jong Un in
these coercive measures and that we may very well be facing a next provocation in months and not years,"
Admiral Willard said.
North-South tensions
North Korea is blamed for sinking a South Korean navy ship last March in the Yellow Sea. In the same
waters, eight months later, it shelled a South Korean island, killing four people.
Pyongyang denies being involved in the ship sinking and says it fired on the island only because South
Korean troops had fired into waters the North claims.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
17
North Korea – Threat – Provocations
North will undertake new provocations
Asia Pulse, February 18, 2011 N. KOREA'S ADDITIONAL ATTACKS POSSIBLE: S. KOREAN PM
South Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik said Friday North Korea may renew military
provocations, given its diplomatic isolation and dire economic trouble.
"North Korea is not showing a responsible attitude yet," Kim said, presiding over an annual defense
meeting of top military commanders, ministers and presidential aides. President Lee Myung-bak also
attended the session.
The prime minister said that, "Seeing the situations in North Korea, there is a chance of its military
provocation again. So, (the military) should be fully prepared."
He stressed that robust national security guarantees "survival and future prosperity."
Seoul took bitter lessons from Pyongyang's deadly attacks on a South Korean warship in March last year and
a western border island eight months later.
The militaries of the two sides, technically at war since their 1950-53 conflict ended in a cease-fire, had
two days of working-level talks last week at the North's request to pave the way for a higher-level meeting.
But the negotiations ended in acrimony as the North refused the South's demand that the issue of its
attacks last year should be addressed at a meeting of higher-level officials, most likely defense ministers.
The communist nation sought dialogue with the South apparently in search of food and fertilizer aid.
Meanwhile, satellite photos showed that the North has completed the construction of a gigantic and cuttingedge missile launch site near its border with China.
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
18
North Korea -- Threat – Provocations
Another North Korean provocation is imminent
BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific, Supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, February 18, 2011
US commander warns of further North Korean provocations
Text of report in English by South Korean news agency Yonhap
[Yonhap headline: "US expects further N. Korean provocations within months: Adm. Willard" by Hwang
Doo-hyong]
WASHINGTON, Feb. 17 (Yonhap) - The United States Thursday [ 17 February] warned of further
provocations from North Korea within months as part of the ongoing effort by leader Kim Jong Il
[Kim Cho'ng-il] to cede power to his youngest son.
Adm. Robert Willard, commander of the US Pacific Command, however, told a forum here that he saw "no
signs that I'm aware of that they're preparing for near-term missile tests."
Reports said that North Korea has completed the construction of a new sophisticated missile launch
site on its western coast near the Chinese border in an apparent bid to test-fire another ballistic missile
that can reach the mainland United States.
North Korea detonated nuclear devices in 2006 and 2009, and conducted long-range missile tests three times
-in 1998, 2006 and 2009 -which were seen as a partial success.
"When you package that together with the provocative actions that we saw in 2010, and the
complexities of succession that are currently ongoing in North Korea, it should concern us all," the
commander said. "We may very well be facing the next provocation in months and not years."
Willard was discussing the North's shelling of a South Korean border island and the torpedoing of a
South Korean warship that killed 50 people last year.
The North's recent provocations are widely believed to be linked to ailing leader Kim Jong Il [Kim
Cho'ng-il]'s plans to transfer power to his third and youngest son, Jong-un, in an unprecedented thirdgeneration hereditary power transition in any communist state.
The 28-year-old heir apparent, who like his father lacks a proper military background, is believed to be trying
to rally support from the military, the only power base in the impoverished but nuclear-armed communist
state, amid a chronic food shortage and the economic plight.
"2010 was a very difficult year with regard to the provocations," Willard said. "On the conventional side,
there were two provocations in the sinking of the Ch'o'nan [Cheonan] and the attack on Yeonpyeong Island
that cost South Korean soldiers and civilians their lives. That has caused us to look very intently at North
Korea with regard to next provocations."
The commander said such provocations nearly exhausted South Korea's tolerance.
"I think it has certainly got the attention of President Lee (Myung-bak) and the Republic of Korea
government and the people of Republic of Korea with regard to testing their tolerance to put up with another
provocation from the North," he said. "There is a great deal that we are doing both within the ROK and US
alliance and internationally to try to prevent occurrences like the experiences last December and earlier in
2010."
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
North Korea – Threat – A2: Northern Economic Downturn
Economic downturn doesn’t threaten the regime
New York Times, 2-25, 11, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/world/asia/25ihtnorth.html?src=twrhp
SEOUL — It was 1992 when a new wave of economic reform in China reminded the Chinese
people that getting rich was glorious. Meanwhile, in neighboring North Korea, citizens were
being exhorted to take part in a nationwide campaign of their own: “Let’s Eat Two Meals Per
Day!”
In the two decades since, even as its Asian neighbors have succeeded at market-style
transformations, North Korea has stuck with its command economy — resolutely socialist,
centrally planned, stubbornly self-reliant.
“And grindingly poor,” in the words of John Everard, the former British ambassador to North
Korea. As the envoy from 2006 to 2008, Mr. Everard saw firsthand that the North was on a
“precipitous descent into levels of poverty we more normally associate with sub-Saharan
Africa.”
Economic data about the North are notoriously unreliable, but the anecdotal evidence is
alarming enough: Children with oversized heads and rust-colored hair — telltale signs
of malnutrition. Hospitals where broken legs are splinted with broom handles, where
patients are told to bring in empty beer bottles for IV drips. Most factories are closed.
Oxen outnumber tractors.
Now, as military and political tensions persist on the Korean Peninsula, and with the
hectoring between the North and South at worrisome new levels, North Korea is trudging
through yet another winter of shortages, yet another winter of bitter cold, not much food
and precious little fuel. A recent report from the North described the longest stretch of
freezing temperatures since 1945.
A number of countries and international aid groups have reported desperate appeals from
Pyongyang for humanitarian food aid in the past few weeks. And an epidemic of foot and
mouth disease has infected more than 10,000 cows, pigs and draft animals.
But has it been a winter of discontent? Not so much. Officials in Seoul said they have seen no
signs of unrest in North Korea, and certainly nothing that suggests a Middle East-style revolt
might be taking shape there. People in the North seem to be bearing up and muddling through,
as they always do, and the likelihood of economic reforms appears unlikely.
“The gap between the elite and the rest of the country has probably never been wider,” said
Mr. Everard, currently a fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford.
But at the same time, he added, “There’s no reason to expect things to change any time soon.”
The Communist regime in Pyongyang, analysts said, has no intention of relaxing its political
grip or opening up its economy.
“Reforms mean death,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert and professor at Kookmin
University in Seoul. “It’s a matter of survival and control.
“The leadership wouldn’t mind economic development,” he said. “Look, they’re rational.
They want modernity. They’re not fundamentalists looking to Paradise and expecting 72
virgins to be waiting for them.
“But reforms? No.”
19
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
Indeed, the word “reform” — kaehyuk in Korean — has never been used in the official North
Korean economic literature, according to Changyong Choi, a research fellow in social science
at Syracuse University in New York State who has studied the topic. Instead, policy changes
are known as “adjustments,” and the result is called “pragmatic socialism.”
Recent refugees, scholars of North Korea and South Korean government officials see no
signs that the economic hardships are pointing toward political instability. They see no
existential threat to Kim Jong-il and his regime, whether through civil unrest, political
factionalism or a military revolt.
Regime change, as tantalizing as it might be to Seoul and Washington, seems remote. Mr.
Kim looks to be in passably good health. And the apprenticeship of his youngest son, Kim
Jong-un, appears to be under way, albeit slowly and quietly.
Ordinary North Koreans certainly struggle to eke out a living, but they are not starving.
And the situation is nothing at all like the so-called Arduous March famine of the mid1990s. More than a million North Koreans reportedly died from starvation then when
aid from Russia stopped, crops failed and the socialist system of food allotments fell
apart.
Even at that level of hunger and horror, there was no profound, collective unrest. “The
people who kept waiting for their government rations to come, they just died quietly,” said
John S. Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace in
Washington.
“It’s bad in the North,” said a senior government official in Seoul.
20
Planet Debate 2011
March PF Topic Update
21
North Korea – Missile Threat
North Korea’s missiles threaten the US
Yonhap (South Korea), February 17, 2011, N. Korea's nuke weapons, ballistic missiles pose serious
threat to U.S.: Clapper
North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles pose a serious threat to the United States, the chief
U.S. intelligence official said Wednesday.
"North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs also pose a serious threat, both regionally and
beyond," National Intelligence Director James Clapper told a Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
hearing. "Pyongyang has signaled a willingness to re-engage in dialogue, but it also craves international
recognition as a nuclear weapons power, and it has shown troubling willingness to sell nuclear
technologies."
The chief spy's remarks are in line with U.S. military leaders.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last month that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will
pose a threat to the U.S. within five years. The defense chief urged North Korea to impose a moratorium
on nuclear and missile testing to help revive stalled six-party nuclear talks.
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also said last month that "unless North Korea is
deterred, that sometime in the next, I'm not sure but, five to 10 years, the provocations ... will continue at a
much higher threat level, which could include a nuclear-capable ICBM (intercontinental ballistic
missile)."
The multilateral nuclear talks have been deadlocked for more than two years over the North's nuclear and
missile tests and other provocations.
North Korea also revealed in November a uranium enrichment plant that could serve as a second way of
building nuclear bombs in addition to its existing plutonium program, despite Pyongyang's claims it is
producing fuel for power generation.
Clapper said in a report presented to the hearing that the North apparently has more uranium enrichment
facilities than the one in its nuclear complex in Yongbyon, north of its capital Pyongyang, that was revealed
last year.
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea – Nuclear Threat – A2: China Cooperation Solves
22
China blocking cooperation to arreast North Korea’s nuclear program
UPI, February 24, 2011, U.S. blasts Iran's human rights record
Agence France Presse, February 23, 2011, China blocking N. Korea nuclear report: diplomats
China on Wednesday refused to let the UN Security Council publish a report on North Korea's
nuclear sanctions busting, diplomats said.
The sanctions panel report calls for tougher implementation of sanctions against North Korea and outlines
progress the isolated Stalinist state has made with its uranium enrichment, according to diplomats.
The report says the uranium enrichment is a new violation of UN sanctions imposed after North Korea
said it staged nuclear bomb tests in 2006 and 2009.
The 15-nation Security Council on Wednesday discussed the North Korea nuclear case at a closed hearing
but China again refused to allow the normal publication of such reports, diplomats said.
"Many council members are pushing for its publication on the grounds that it is important that all UN
member states get access to the findings and recommendations to improve compliance," said one
diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
He said just one country was blocking publication and other diplomats confirmed that it was China
blocking the release.
China is the North's closest ally and has sought to protect the Pyongyang regime on the
international stage while seeking to restart six nation talks on the nuclear program.
Diplomats said that China's action was strange as a Chinese expert, Xue Xiaodong, has signed off on the
report.
China doesn’t think the North Korean threat is serious, they support the status quo
Korea Herald, February 23, 2011, China’s influence on N.K. exaggerated
Professor says bilateral discussions needed before 6-party talks
South Korea wants to protect its security and economic growth from North Korea"s threats, while the U.S. wants to defend its ally and its regional interests.
Both of them would like China"s help in dealing with the rogue state led by Kim Jong-il. But what does China want?
China expert and Yonsei University professor of international studies John Delury believes that
expecting China to force a change in North Korea is contrary not only to its relationship with that
regime, but with any nation around the world.
He sees this principle reflected in China"s recent public endorsement of North Korea"s plan to have
Kim Jong-il succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-un.
"I think that China"s attitude toward North Korea is kind of like their attitude toward regimes
worldwide,"
Delury recently told The Korea Herald. "They take them as they are."
Furthermore, he said China views the security problem on the Korean Peninsula differently to South Korea, as well as the U.S. ™ which recently began warning of North Korean missiles that might one day be capable of reaching its territory.
There are those in all three countries who believe the situation will not reach a disastrous conclusion
anytime soon, but the growing group of individuals in the U.S. and South Korea who fear a dire
outcome are not present in China, he said.
"They"re much less apocalyptic in their thinking," he said. "They have worst-case scenarios, but for the
most part they think it can all muddle through."
22
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea – Nuclear Threat – A2: China Cooperation Solves
23
China won’t and can’t control North Korea
Asia Pulse, February 23, 2011, p. online
RUMSFELD URGES S. KOREA TO TAKE BIGGER ROLE IN ITS DEFENSE
One idea he is quick to dispel is that China can simply force North Korea to denuclearize, or to cooperate
with Western forces.
"I don"t think that"s anything like what China-North Korea relations will ever resemble," he said. In fact,
one analogy he has heard from some in China is North Korea as Israel, a nation that is a close ally ™ and
aid recipient ™ of the U.S., but that sometimes acts independently of U.S. wishes.
Even if China were to present an ultimatum to North Korea, requiring them to reform in order to keep
receiving aid, the North would most likely refuse, Delury said.
"The deeper illusion is that China would ever exercise (that influence)," Delury said. "China doesn"t act
that way in any part of the world."
23
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea – Nuclear Threat – A2: Can’t Fit Nukes on Missiles
24
North Korea has warheads small enough for missiles
Yonap, BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific , February 23, 2011 Wednesday, USA wants North Korea to
improve ties with South
.
The North is believed to have at least several nuclear weapons, with some experts saying it may have
already developed nuclear warheads small enough to be mounted on ballistic missiles.
US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said last month that North Korea's missiles and nuclear weapons will
pose a threat to the US within five years. The defence chief urged North Korea to impose a moratorium on
nuclear and missile testing to help revive the stalled six-party talks.
24
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea -- No Threat -- A2: South Korean Troop Reductions Now
25
Troop reductions have been delayed three years in the status quo
Asia Pulse, February 23, 2011, p. online
RUMSFELD URGES S. KOREA TO TAKE BIGGER ROLE IN ITS DEFENSE
The previous South Korean government under the liberal President Roh Moo-hyun, seeking less
dependence on the U.S., agreed to the U.S. troop reduction in South Korea and Seoul's retaking of
wartime operational control of South Korean troops in 2012. Peacetime control of South Korean forces
was returned in 1994.
The Roh administration also decided to reduce the number of South Korean troops to about 500,000
from more than 600,000, focusing more on advanced equipment and technology.
The conservative Lee Myung-bak government, which took office in 2008, and U.S. President Obama
agreed in June last year to delay South Korea's taking back of wartime OPCON to December 2015
from April 2012, citing the need for the sides to prepare more for their joint defense capability in
the face of nuclear and other threats from North Korea.
The troop reduction in the Korean Peninsula was made under the strategic flexibility posture drawn up by
the Bush administration for rapid deployment of U.S. troops abroad to conflict regions.
The U.S. maintains 28,500 troops in South Korea as a legacy of the 1950-53 Korean War, when the U.S.
fought for South Korea against invading communist North Korean troops aided by China and the former
Soviet Union. They are part of more than 400,000 American forces stationed abroad, including in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
"They indicated to me that they would prefer we not use any troops from Korea for any contingency other
than Korea," Rumsfeld talked about the strategic flexibility. "The United States of America couldn't have
one military for Korea, one for Germany and one for somebody else."
The Obama administration has been closely following the strategic flexibility.
Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last year that the strategic flexibility
stance "is one we are addressing with the South Korean leadership," which is "very important part of a
strategic concept for security both for the region and globally."
Mullen has also reconfirmed the U.S. commitment to retain the current level of U.S. troops for the
coming years, saying, "What I said earlier about 28,500, that's the commitment and that's where we are."
President Obama told American soldiers in Seoul last year, "The story of your service goes beyond this
peninsula. Others among you served in Afghanistan. Others among you will deploy yet again."
South Korean officials have denied discussing deployment of U.S. troops in Korea abroad, insisting any
talk of that kind should be seen as a routine rotation of troops without reducing the number.
25
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea – Missile Threat
26
North has just completed a new launch pad
Irish Independent, February 18, 2011, US alarm over new Korean missile threat
NEW satellite images show North Korea has completed a second long-range missile launchpad.
The images will heighten, anxieties in Washington that Pyongyang's ballistic missile programme is fast
becoming a direct threat.
The launchpad is more sophisticated than the country's first facility and strikingly similar to a
Chinese site, suggesting Beijing's involvement, according to Tim Brown, an image analyst from military
analysis group globalsecurity.org.
Mr Brown said the reclusive North, which insists that its missile programme is peaceful and intended to
put a satellite in orbit, was working on development together with Iran and Pakistan.
The facility at Tongchang-ri is equipped with a 100-ft (30-m) launch tower and is located near North
Korea's northwest border with China, making it more difficult for US intelligence to observe compared to
its Musudan-ri launchpad in the east. The Tongchang-ri site has been under construction for a decade.
Mr Brown, who identified the latest development, said the images were taken about a month ago, and that
there were no signs of an imminent test launch. He said it would take weeks, possibly months, to put a
rocket on the launchpad.
A South Korean government official also said there were no signs the North was preparing a missile test.
The North is developing the so-called Taepodong-2 missile, with an estimated range of 4,160 miles, but
testing so far suggests production of the complete weapon is a long way off.
The North's arsenal already includes intermediate-range missiles that can hit targets of up to 3,000km
away, officials say, putting all of Japan and US military bases in Guam at risk.
Launch
26
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea –No Threat – A2: US/SK Relations Weak Now
27
US-South Korean military ties growing
Japan Economic Newswire, February 18, 2011 U.S. Korea, U.S. to hold first talks on nuclear
deterrence next month
South Korea and the United States plan to hold their first talks on measures to boost the nuclear
deterrence Washington provides to protect Seoul, a senior South Korean Defense Ministry official told
Yonhap News Agency on Friday.
"Both sides plan to hold two rounds of talks of the Extended Deterrence Policy Committee this year, and
the first round is set for late next month," the official was quoted as saying.
Working-level officials from the two countries have been preparing since early this year to set details of
the agenda for the first meeting, the official added.
Seoul and Washington agreed last October to form a joint committee to make decisions about the
alliance's nuclear policy, stepping up their commitment to deterring threats from North Korea's
nuclear programs and other weapons of mass destruction.
The Extended Deterrence Policy Committee was officially set up in December at a regular meeting of
defense officials between the allies.
27
Planet Debate –
Politics Neg Update – January 27, 2011
North Korea – No Threat – A2: Missile Launch
28
North not preparing to launch a long-range missile
BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific – Political, February 17, 2011
South Korea says no sign of North missile launch preparations
SEOUL, Feb. 17 (Yonhap) - North Korea has shown no signs of preparations to launch a long-range
missile, a South Korean official said Thursday following a news report that the communist nation has
completed construction of a new missile launch facility.
The Washington Post reported that the latest satellite imagery indicates an expansive launch pad
positioned next to a launch tower that stands more than 100 feet tall. The facility is located close to the
North's border with China and is more modern than the existing one in the country's northeast, it said.
The communist nation, which test-fired its most advanced Taepodong-2 missile in 2006 and 2009, has
been known for years to be building a new missile launch site in Dongchang-ri in the country's northwest.
But it has not been confirmed whether the construction has been completed.
A South Korean official said that he could not confirm whether the new missile facility has been
completed, but said that there have been no specific signs of the North making preparations to testfire a long-range missile.
"If a missile is to be fired, there have to be specific moves. But there have been no such unusual
signs," the official said on condition of anonymity. "I don't think that there are high chances of North
Korea pushing ahead with a nuclear test or a missile launch at a time when it is asking for food aid."
North Korea's missile programme has long been considered a top security concern in the region, along
with its nuclear programmes. The country test-fired the Taepodong-1 in 1998 and the more advanced
Taepodong-2 in 2006 and 2009.
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