World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Climate services for improved disaster risk
reduction
National – Regional - Global
Dr Maryam Golnaraghi
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
www.wmo.int
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction
Programme was established in
2003 to …
Leverage WMO Research and Operational
Capacities to Address Meteorological,
Hydrological and Climate Information
Challenge in supporting DRM at all levels
WMO focus on Capacity Development of National
meteolrogical, hydrological and climate services within New
Paradigm in DRR with focus on Prevention and Preparedness
(HFA)
1
Alignment of clear policies, legislation, planning, resources
at national to local Levels (Multi-sectoral, Multi-agency)
Risk Assessment
Historical Hazard
databases
2
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and forward looking
hazard trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Preparedness (saving lives):
early warning systems
emergency planning and
response
3
Prevention (Reduction of
economic losses):
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CATastrophe insurance &
bonds
5
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
4
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training across agencies 6
Understanding the Risks Provides the
Foundation for Preventing Disaster Risks!
Hazard
Analysis and
Mapping
Exposure
and
Vulnerability
Potential
Loss
Estimates
Number of
lives at risk
$ at risk
Heavy Precipitation
and flood mapping
Need for historical and
real time data
Statistical analysis tools
climate forecasts and
trend analysis
Impacts:
 population density
 agricultural land
 urban grid
Infrastructure
Businesses
Need for Socioeconomic impacts
data and analysis
tools
This
information is
critical for
decision-making
and
development of
strategies to
reduce the risks
Destruction of
buildings and
infrastructure
Reduction in crop
yields
Business
interruption
Need for risk assessment
tools combining hazard,
asset and exposure
information
Billions of USD per decade
Geological
495
500
Hydrometeorological
450
400
345
350
300
While economic
losses are on
the way up!
250
200
150
50
0
11
4
56-65
24
14
66-75
Geological
47
76-85
86-95
96-05
decade
2.66
Hydrometeorological
2.5
2
1.73
1.5
1
0.67
0.65
0.39
0.5
0.05
0
103
88
100
Millions of casualties per decade
3
160
56-65
0.22
0.17
66-75
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED
International Disaster Database
76-85
0.25
86-95
0.22
96-05
decade
Loss of life from
hydrometeorological
disasters are
decreasing!
Early Warning Systems save lives
Coordination Across Many Levels and Agencies
National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms
1
3
2
4
Recent advances in seasonal climate forecasting and trend
analysis provide unprecedented opportunities….
…. to support sectoral risk assessment
and management!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Land zoning
Infrastructure and Urban planning
Insurance / Finance
Agricultural productivity and food security
Tourism
Health epidemics
Water resource management
Climate Services are Critical for (Re)Insurance
Markets and other Risk Transfer Mechanisms
Which Risks?
Financial risks
What type of
Financial tools?
Who Could
Benefit?
CAT insurance &
bonds
Individuals
Historical and real-time
data (Fundamental for
development of these
markets!)
Seasonal to inter-annual
climate forecasts
Other
Decadal climate trend
analysis
Government
Weather-indexed
insurance and
derivatives
Regional
Catastrophe
Insurance
Facilities
Requirements for
Hydro-Met Services?
Companies
Other emerging
products
Long term trend
analysis (long-term
market strategy)
WMO Workshop: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/events/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-
2007/index_en.html
Decisions in Climate Mitigation, Adaptation and
Disaster Risk Reduction are part of holistic risk
management strategy
Climate
Adaptation
Multi-sectoral
planning and risk
management
Incremental cumulative risk
Disaster Risk Management
Geological
Meteorological,
Hydrological and
climate extremes
Climate
Mitigation
Emission
reduction
Example of Seamless meteolrogical, hydrological and
climate products and services for risk management and
planning across various sectoral stakeholders
DECISION
MAKERS
DECISIONS
SERVICES
Emergency Services
Government
Authorities
Insurance
Public, Media
Government
Coastal Zone
Managers
Insurance
Suppliers
Emergency
planning activation
and response
Evacuations,
inventory, preparing
houses
Weather Forecasts:
Tropical cyclone
Forecasts and warnings
Urban planners
Local to national
Governments
Banks
Insurance
Negotiators
Parlimentarian
Local/national
governments
Private sector
Urban & coastal
Emergency
Preparedness
Inventory: Food,
Construction Materials,
Shelter, Emergency
funds
Strategic Planning
Building codes
Infrastructure &
Urban Development
and Retrofitting
Land Zoning and
Planning
International
negotiations
and
agreements
National
policies and
legilation
Seasonal Climate
Forecasts: Probabilities of
severity and intensity of
tropical cyclones for the
next season
Decadal trend
analysis: of
Climate
Change
scenarios –
IPCC Process
Next hour to 10
days
Emergency Preparedness
Season to year
severity and
intensity of tropical
cyclones
Decade
Sectoral planning and risk reduction
Long term
Scenarios
A Journey from Research to Decision-Making
Examples of Climate Services for improving Decision-tools
in Insurance / Reinsurance
Drivers are
– Legislative: new requirements (USA, UK and EU, etc) for the
companies to report of their climate risk
– Industry: Consortium of insurers/re-insurers, leading global climate
centers (academia, Risk Analysis Companies (AIR World Wide)
have teamed up Funding research and partnering with climate
research community (e.g., NCAR, GFDL, Scripts, UK Met
Office),, risk modeling companies (AIR World wide), and NMHS
to develop relevant climate services and decision tools
– Climate Community and NMHS: Vary receptive and have initiated
various projects and activities
Research
Operationnal
climate
forecasting
Risk
modelling
tools
(Re) Insurance
decisionmaking
Importance of understanding global trends
and correlations
Source: Natural Disaster
Hotspots: A Global Risk
Analysis. World Bank.
Highly Diverse Users of Climate
Information at different levels
• Global:
– International policy negotiations
– International development and funding agencies
– Multi-nationals and global companies (private)
• Regional
–
–
–
–
Inter-governmental economic groupings
Regional development banks
Private sector
Multi- and bi-lateral national cooperation and planning
• National to local
–
–
–
–
Government and policy applications
Strategic planning (Public and private sectors)
Medium to long-term operational planning (multi-sectoral)
Long term infrastructure planning and development
Need for Strengthening National and Regional Operational
Capacities
Reduction of Risks: Life, economics sectors:
DRM and civil protection, agriculture, water resource management,
infrastructure and planning, urban development, health insurance
and financial markets, etc
Products and Service Delivery
Capacity Building
Forecasting and analysis tools
Observations and
data
Research and modeling
International aspects
policies/legislation/coodination and planning
Regional aspects
National aspects, with consideration for evolving DRR
WMO National Survey to assess Meteorological,
Hydrological and Climate Services technical
capacities in support of DRR (2006)
• 70% need amendments or
restructuring of national
policies and legislation
• 67% NMHS need
strengthening or full
modernization of
infrastructure
• 80% NMHS need technical
and management training
• 80% of NMHS need
strengthening or building
multi-sectoral institutional
partnerships, coordination
and service delivery (QMS
and SOPs)
Mapping WMO DRR ccoperation projects
since 2007 to date
Type I: Multi-Agency Cooperation
Projects with World Bank, ISDR, UNDP
and WMO
Central
America and
Caribbean
Central Asia and Caucasus
(2009 – ongoing)
South East
Europe (2007present)
(2010- )
South East
Asia (early
2010 –
ongoing)
Haiti
Pakistan
Type II: Multi-Agency
Cooperation Projects in endto-end Multi-Hazard EWS
(UNDP, ISDR, World Bank,
UNESCO-IOC, CDEMA,
CEPREDENAC, IFRC)
Special
project: WMO
Shanghai MHEWS Demo
Type III: Post-Disaster
Assistance (in coordination with
UN and World bank and multilateral cooperation with Members
Conclusions
• Decisions in disaster risk reduction are interlinked
with climate adaptation and mitigation
• Disaster risk reduction provides new multistakeholders mechanisms (national / regional / global)
for access to users and identification of their needs
• Highly diverse user community at different levels
(global to local)
• Need for seamless products from next minute to longterm to adress risk management holistically
Thank You