Xiaohong Li, Graduate Research Asst.
Rita Caso, Director
Sam Houston State University
Office of Institutional Research & Assessment
 Purpose of the Study
 Why Study Freshman Outcomes?
 Why Bayesian Networks
 Method
 Example Inferences
 Conclusions
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
2
 Apply Bayesian Belief Network(BBN) techniques to examine
student outcomes for the purpose of identifying families of
factors associated with students’ college success at Sam
Houston State University (SHSU)
 Identify what factors impact retention and graduation for First
Time Freshmen (FTF)
 Retention and Graduation rates: key performance indicators
 Providing management information, analyzing and
interpreting these data for using in planning and policy
decisions
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
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 To determine if we are providing the best environment
& experiences to promote success for our diverse
freshman population
 To make tailored improvements in the learning
environment and the learning experiences we offer in
order to maximize successful outcomes for all students
across preparation backgrounds, needs, learning
styles and life-styles
 To satisfy external accountability requirements
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
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 University Stakeholders who need detailed insights
into the conditions and combinations of factors that
influence new student success:
Enrollment Management
 Enrichment and Support Programs
 Student Services
 Academic Department

TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
5
 Graphical Model with an Associated set of
Probability Tables

Learn causal relationships easily

Better understand the problem domain and predict
the consequences

Flexible and robust recommendation strategies
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
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 Definitions of Basic Terms:

Independent


Conditional probability



B
The probability of event C occurring, given that
event A has already occurred: P(C|A)
D
E is independent of A and B given D
E and F are conditionally independent of each
other, given D
Causal Theory


A
Conditional Independence


Event A does not affect the probability of B
occurring: P( A, B) = P(A) * P(B)
A or B can cause D to occur
E
F
Node: variable
 Leaf Node: no outcome depends on them (E, F)
 Root Node: do not depend on any outcome (A,B)
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
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 “A graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among
variables of interest”
 Named “Bayes” after Reverend Thomas Bayes, a British theologian
and mathematician who wrote down a basic law of probability
 Bayes Rule
Smoking
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
Cancer
8
 Bayesian Networks Contain:

A Network Structure:

Directed, acyclic (non-circular) graph

Encodes a set of conditional independence and
dependence information about variables

Probability

Probability distributions associated with each variable

Represented in the data and computed from the data
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
9
 Example of Bayesian Network

Example Data below is Invented
FAID
Full/Part
FAID
Yes
No
FAID
Full/Part
Part
Full
0.4
0.6
0.11
0.99
Yes
No
0.2
0.8
Retention
Full/Part
Full
Full
Part
Part
FAID
Yes
No
Yes
No
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
Retention
Yes
No
0.95
0.05
0.8
0.2
0.9
0.1
0.99
0.01
10
 Data Processing

Data Source:

Institutional Research & Assessment Office data files from which Fall FTF
cohorts for 2000 through 2006 were extracted

Working Data File

Merge extracted FTF Cohort data into aggregated data file

Records=13542, variables =216

Dependent variables - retention rate & graduation rate computed from
enrollment and graduation variables in working data file

Discretization – transform continuous variables into categorical
variables
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
11
 Developing Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) Model by using a
computer application program called NeticaTM3.25

Selection of Variables

Input variables selected from commonly used in SHSU
IRA Office studies of freshman outcomes

Variable selection reinforced by variables used in ‘ Data
Mining with Bayesian Belief networks to Examine
Retention and Graduation at a Public University’ by P.
Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac, presented at AIR
2007 Forum
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
12
Name
Label
Type
Value
1 Year Retention
1 Year Retention
Discrete
2
Admitted_HscholGrad
Year Admitted-Graduation Year
Discretized
4
College
College of Students’ Enrollment
Discrete
7
Ethnicity
Ethnicity
Discrete
6
Gender
Gender
Discrete
2
I_O
In-state(I)/Out of State (O)
Discrete
2
F_T
Full or Part Time
Discrete
2
BKLC
Bearkat Learning-Community
Cohort
Discrete
2
PBSP
Probation or Suspension
Discrete
6
ONOFF
Whether or not student lives on
campus
Discrete
2
FAID
Financial Aid
Discrete
2
HSrank
Rank in High School
Discretized
5
SAT_Total
SAT Total Score
Discretized
6
GPA
End of Semester GPA
Discretized
8
Graduated_6yrs
6 year Graduation
Discrete
2
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
13
 Assumptions in the model Structure
 Graduation
and Retention (Dependent Variables) are
“leaf nodes”
 Gender, Ethnicity, Full/Part, Probation & Suspension
(PBSP) are “root nodes” and are independent of each
other.
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
14
• Building the Model Structure

In order to specify the relationships between the selected variables
from PRIOR information, I took inspiration from:

Structure used by Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac in their study

Knowledge about variables related to dependent outcome variables
from other SHSU IRA Office studies

Knowledge about relationships between pairs of variables from
correlation matrices that included all selected variables
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
15
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.59
1.13
18.1
11.4
0.80
68.0
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.9
2.07
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.084
44.2
16.4
.084
13.4
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
18.3
81.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
67.7
N
32.3
0.677 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.7
X1
2.94
X5
1.51
X5more
0.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.12
19.8
16.6
22.0
8.83
14.2
7.36
4.10
3.65 ± 1.9
16
 Posteriori Analysis
Students’ gender determines students’ college choice and
high school rank
 Ethnicity influences students’ college choice.
 1 year retention rate and 6 year graduation rate directly
depend on GPA and students’ probation or suspension
status
 Students’ in-state or out–of-state status and ethnicity
related to how many years after high school graduation
students applied to the university
 Students living on campus perform a little bit better than
those living off campus

TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
17
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.59
1.13
18.1
11.4
0.80
68.0
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
0
100
2
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
15.5
Top10
6.55
Top11 25
19.0
Q2nd
37.3
Q3rd
18.6
BottomQ
3.07
2.46 ± 1.4
I_O
97.9
2.14
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
4.92 ± 2.1
0.10
46.3
21.6
0.10
16.2
10.5
5.16
ONOFF
18.3
81.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
67.7
N
32.3
0.677 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.7
X1
2.94
X5
1.51
X5more
0.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.12
19.8
16.6
22.0
8.83
14.2
7.36
4.10
3.65 ± 1.9
18
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.59
1.13
18.1
11.4
0.80
68.0
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
100
0
1
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
12.9
Top10
13.1
Top11 25
29.0
Q2nd
33.4
Q3rd
10.5
BottomQ
1.05
2.19 ± 1.2
I_O
98.0
2.03
0.98 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.5 ± 2.4
.073
42.7
12.7
.073
11.5
19.1
13.8
ONOFF
18.3
81.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
67.7
N
32.3
0.677 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.7
X1
2.94
X5
1.51
X5more
0.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.12
19.8
16.6
22.0
8.83
14.2
7.36
4.10
3.65 ± 1.9
19
 There is no significant difference in graduation rate
and retention rate between males and females.
More females’ high school ranks are above the 1st
Q (from the top) than males

Females


Tend to study majors in college of Art & Sciences and
Humanities & Social Sciences
Males

Tend to study majors in college of Art & Sciences and
Business Administration.
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
20
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0
0
0
0
0
100
6
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
98.6
1.42
0.986 ± 0.12
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.2 ± 2.3
.022
46.6
15.4
.022
12.1
14.8
11.1
ONOFF
22.2
77.8
0.222 ± 0.42
1 year retention
Y
67.6
N
32.4
0.676 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.4
X1
2.99
X5
1.64
X5more
0.95
0.0914 ± 0.42
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.13
19.8
16.5
22.0
8.82
14.1
7.45
4.18
3.65 ± 1.9
21
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0
0
0
100
0
0
4
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
98.9
1.11
0.989 ± 0.1
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.5 ± 2.2
0.13
38.0
15.5
0.13
21.0
16.5
8.75
ONOFF
13.8
86.2
0.138 ± 0.35
1 year retention
Y
67.8
N
32.2
0.678 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
96.1
X1
2.52
X5
1.10
X5more
0.32
0.0568 ± 0.31
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.1
N
54.9
0.451 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.10
19.9
16.6
22.1
8.82
14.3
7.23
3.95
3.65 ± 1.9
22
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0
0
100
0
0
0
3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
98.5
1.50
0.985 ± 0.12
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.35 ± 2.2
.085
39.5
20.4
.085
13.9
17.8
8.21
ONOFF
5.92
94.1
0.0592 ± 0.24
1 year retention
Y
68.1
N
31.9
0.681 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
96.6
X1
2.08
X5
0.78
X5more
0.53
0.0522 ± 0.31
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.1
N
54.9
0.451 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.08
20.0
16.7
22.2
8.82
14.4
7.06
3.80
3.66 ± 1.8
23
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
100
0
0
0
0
0
1
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
91.4
8.62
0.914 ± 0.28
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.31 ± 2.4
2.15
39.8
14.0
2.15
14.0
20.4
7.53
ONOFF
24.7
75.3
0.247 ± 0.43
1 year retention
Y
67.3
N
32.7
0.673 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
86.7
X1
3.61
X5
4.82
X5more
4.82
0.277 ± 0.77
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.21
19.2
16.3
22.0
8.98
13.9
7.79
4.64
3.65 ± 1.9
24

No significant difference in graduation rate and retention
rate among ethnicities

Native Americans are less likely (86.7%) to attend
university within 1 year after high school compare to
other ethnicities (around 95%), and 91% are in-state
students, while 99% of other ethnicities are in-state.

46.6% of White Americans enrolled in college of Arts and
Sciences, compare to 39% of other ethnicities.

94% of African Americans live on campus, compare to
75% - 86% of other ethnicities.
•
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
25
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.57
1.13
18.2
11.5
0.74
67.9
5.14 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
98.0
2.03
0.98 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.083
44.2
16.4
.083
13.4
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
18.1
81.9
0.181 ± 0.38
1 year retention
Y
55.0
N
45.0
0.55 ± 0.5
BKLC
2.38
97.6
0.0238 ± 0.15
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
2.68 ± 1.5
1.03
6.04
36.6
33.9
1.95
20.5
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
96.2
X1
2.28
X5
1.10
X5more
0.45
0.0584 ± 0.32
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
27.0
N
73.0
0.27 ± 0.44
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
26
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.58
1.13
18.2
11.5
0.78
67.9
5.14 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.9
2.06
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.084
44.2
16.4
.084
13.4
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
17.5
82.5
0.175 ± 0.38
1 year retention
Y
74.5
N
25.5
0.745 ± 0.44
BKLC
2.91
97.1
0.0291 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.102 ± 0.56
2.76
0.20
0.43
0.89
0.43
95.3
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
95.2
X1
2.66
X5
1.70
X5more
0.47
0.0749 ± 0.36
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
43.0
N
57.0
0.43 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
0
0
100
0
0
0
0
0
3
27
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.63
1.13
17.3
11.2
0.88
68.8
5.17 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.9
2.14
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.085
44.2
16.3
.085
13.4
15.5
10.3
ONOFF
22.4
77.6
0.224 ± 0.42
1 year retention
Y
84.8
N
15.2
0.848 ± 0.36
BKLC
3.38
96.6
0.0338 ± 0.18
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.0892 ± 0.55
0.47
0.46
0.85
0.88
0.29
97.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
93.0
X1
3.55
X5
2.10
X5more
1.35
0.118 ± 0.48
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
70.4
N
29.6
0.704 ± 0.46
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
0
7
28
 Bearkat Learning Community students have a higher
probability of having a higher GPA
 Students with low GPA (below 2)

Have only 27% graduation rate and 55% 1 year retention rate
 Students with higher GPA (2 to 2.5)

Have 43% graduation rate and 75% retention rate
 Students with highest GPA (above 3.75)

Have 70% graduation rate and 85% retention rate
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
29
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.59
1.13
18.1
11.4
0.80
68.0
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
P T
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.9
2.07
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.084
44.2
16.4
.084
13.4
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
18.3
81.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
45.1
N
54.9
0.451 ± 0.5
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
4
0
0
0
100
0
0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.7
X1
2.94
X5
1.51
X5more
0.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
22.1
N
77.9
0.221 ± 0.41
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
GPA
X00100
25.5
X00200
64.0
X00250
1.40
X50300
0.62
X00325
0.62
X25375
0.62
X75400
0.62
NA
6.61
1.71 ± 0.89
30
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.59
1.13
18.1
11.4
0.80
68.0
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
P T
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.9
2.07
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.084
44.2
16.4
.084
13.4
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
18.3
81.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
76.0
N
24.0
0.76 ± 0.43
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.7
X1
2.94
X5
1.51
X5more
0.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
53.3
N
46.7
0.533 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
0.25
5.56
21.6
29.4
11.7
19.1
9.79
2.61
4.35 ± 1.6
31
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.59
1.13
18.1
11.4
0.80
68.0
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
P T
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.9
2.07
0.979 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.084
44.2
16.4
.084
13.4
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
18.3
81.7
0.183 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
45.1
N
54.9
0.451 ± 0.5
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
4
0
0
0
100
0
0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.7
X1
2.94
X5
1.51
X5more
0.84
0.0847 ± 0.4
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
22.1
N
77.9
0.221 ± 0.41
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
GPA
X00100
25.5
X00200
64.0
X00250
1.40
X50300
0.62
X00325
0.62
X25375
0.62
X75400
0.62
NA
6.61
1.71 ± 0.89
32
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.55
1.08
18.2
11.5
0.21
68.5
5.15 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
P T
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.2
40.8
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
13.8
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
25.0
Q2nd
35.1
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.83
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
100
0
1
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.26 ± 2.3
.073
44.2
16.3
.073
13.5
15.6
10.3
ONOFF
18.2
81.8
0.182 ± 0.39
1 year retention
Y
67.7
N
32.3
0.677 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.9
X1
2.84
X5
1.45
X5more
0.83
0.0822 ± 0.39
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.12
19.8
16.6
22.0
8.82
14.2
7.36
4.09
3.65 ± 1.9
33
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
2.45
3.32
13.1
6.12
28.4
46.6
4.95 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
P T
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
57.9
42.1
1.42 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
20.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
22.1
Q2nd
27.2
Q3rd
16.1
BottomQ
4.13
2.21 ± 1.5
I_O
0
100
0
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.23 ± 2.3
0.59
42.7
19.0
0.59
11.0
16.1
10.1
ONOFF
20.7
79.3
0.207 ± 0.41
1 year retention
Y
67.5
N
32.5
0.675 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
86.7
X1
7.71
X5
4.17
X5more
1.44
0.204 ± 0.58
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.0
N
55.0
0.45 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.15
19.4
16.5
21.9
8.93
14.1
7.58
4.48
3.65 ± 1.9
34
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.54
1.15
20.8
12.0
0.72
64.8
5.05 ± 1.3
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
98.0
2.01
0.98 ± 0.14
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.27 ± 2.3
.084
43.9
16.5
.084
13.5
15.7
10.2
ONOFF
0
100
0
1 year retention
Y
68.2
N
31.8
0.682 ± 0.47
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.8
X1
2.90
X5
1.47
X5more
0.82
0.083 ± 0.39
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
45.1
N
54.9
0.451 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.09
19.9
16.7
22.3
8.88
14.4
6.99
3.77
3.66 ± 1.8
35
AM
AP
BL
HI
IN
WH
Ethnicity
0.80
1.04
5.85
8.63
1.16
82.5
5.56 ± 1
F
M
F-T
PT
3.06
FT
96.9
Unknow
.007
1.03 ± 0.17
Gender
59.1
40.9
1.41 ± 0.49
Y
N
Y
N
I
O
HSrank
Unknow
14.0
Top10
10.4
Top11 25
24.9
Q2nd
35.0
Q3rd
13.8
BottomQ
1.87
2.3 ± 1.3
I_O
97.7
2.35
0.977 ± 0.15
F
O
College
Gen study undecided
Art Sciences
Business Admin
Academic Services
Criminal Justice
Humanities Social Sciences
Education
5.23 ± 2.3
.083
45.3
15.8
.083
12.9
15.2
10.7
ONOFF
100
0
1
1 year retention
Y
65.4
N
34.6
0.654 ± 0.48
BKLC
3.00
97.0
0.03 ± 0.17
PBSP
Remediation defic
Remediation GradePoint Defic
GradePoint Defic
Probation
Suspended
Good standing
0.879 ± 1.5
1.33
2.80
11.5
10.5
0.91
73.0
FAID
67.9
32.1
0.679 ± 0.47
Admitted_HscholGrad
X
94.3
X1
3.12
X5
1.67
X5more
0.92
0.0923 ± 0.42
SAT_Total
X400 599
0.32
X600 799
6.67
X800 999
37.3
X1000 1199
34.6
X1200 1600
6.30
NA or below400
14.7
2.96 ± 1.4
Graduated_6yrs
Y
44.5
N
55.5
0.445 ± 0.5
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
X00100
X00200
X00250
X50300
X00325
X25375
X75400
NA
GPA
7.27
19.6
15.9
20.9
8.58
13.2
9.00
5.57
3.63 ± 1.9
36
 Students on probation or suspended in the first year

Have only 22% graduation rate and 45% retention rate
 Good standing students

Have 53% graduation rate and 76% retention rate.
 Out-of-state students are less likely (87%) to attend university
within 1 year after high school, compared to in-state students
(95%).
 There are no GPA distribution differences between in-state
students and out-of-state students
 Students living on campus have a slightly higher GPA, retention
rate and graduation rate.
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
37

Bayesian Belief Networks are good tools for analyzing
institutional research data

BBN is a powerful methodology for graphically demonstrating
probability theory and can provide good references for
university administration

Users could have difficulty using BBN if they do not have
sufficient data or theory base to provide prior probabilities.
This is particularly problematic when exploring a previously
unknown network

The validity and reliability of prior beliefs used in Bayesian
inference processing are critical. If this prior knowledge is not
reliable, then the Bayesian network is not useful
TX Association of Institutional Research (TAIR) 2008 Conference, 2/5-7/08
38
Bibliography
1.
P. Edamatsu, D. Jankovic and Pokrajac, Data Mining with Bayesian
Belief networks to Examine Retention and Graduation at a Public
University, presented at AIR 2007 Forum
2.
David Heckerman, A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian Networks,
1997
3.
Bruce G. Marcot, What Are “Bayesian Belief Network Models?”, 2005
4.
Castillo, E., J.M.Gutierrez and A.S.Hadi Expert Systems and
Probabilistic Network Models. Springer Verlag, 1997
5.
Jie Cheng, Russell Greiner, Learning Bayesian Belief Network
Classifiers: Algorithms and System 1995
39
40