SLCP Benefits Toolkit:
A Modular Approach to Estimating the Benefits of
Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Emission Reductions
June 16, 2015
Overview
A. What We Know About the Benefits of Reducing Short-lived Climate Pollutants
(SLCPs)
B. Toolkit Goals
C. Description of Toolkit Components
1. Data Requirements
2. Outputs
D. How the Toolkit Can be Applied
E. Demonstration
F. Next Steps
G. Contacts
Estimate change
in emissions
Implementation of
SLCP measures
Link emissions to
air pollution
concentrations
Estimate benefits
Health
Climate
Agriculture
Benefits of Reducing Black Carbon and Methane
•
•
•
A 2011 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment report identified 16 key measures
to reduce black carbon (BC) and methane globally.
The UNEP methane and BC measures are estimated to reduce annual air-pollution related deaths by 1-5
million globally and avoid yield losses from 4 major crops of 21-57 million ton globally each year.
Health and other benefits vary by country, as illustrated below.
Benefits of the methane and BC mitigation measures by country
Climate
Shindell et al. Science, 2012
Health
Crops
3
Toolkit Goals
Making the Business Case for Reducing SLCPs
The Toolkit is Designed to Allow Countries To:
• Characterize national and/or urban
emissions
• Explore alternative emission scenarios at
urban and/or national scale
• Calculate country-level health, agriculture
and regional climate benefits
• Compare results across alternative
scenarios
• Support national and city scale policies
that reduce SLCPs
Global Impact of UNEP Measures
on Health, Crop Yields and Climate
Toolkit Components
A. LEAP – SLCP – Emissions and Scenarios Tool
1. Based on Stockholm Environment Institute’s LEAP – Long-range Energy
Alternatives Planning system – developed over last 25 years
2. Simple structure – initially designed for developing countries/emerging
economies
B. Benefits Calculator – Simplified Benefits Estimation Tool
1. Estimates concentrations of particle pollution and ozone using a global air
quality model (GEOS-Chem Adjoint)
2. Includes calculations to determine the impact on health, crops, and climate
3. Requires limited user inputs: emissions for 10 substances, population data
and projections, crop yield, and optional input of health-response factors
(some default data available)
C. BenMAP-CE – Customized Health Benefits and Economic Valuation Tool
1. Uses health impact functions to relate changes in particle pollution and
ozone concentrations with health outcomes
2. Estimates the economic value of health outcomes
Toolkit Components
LEAP – SLCP
•
•
•
Allows users to build SLCP-relevant emissions models and
implement hypothetical SLCP control strategies
Calculates emissions for historical years
• Based on default emission factors linked with activity
data, which may be changed by users, if desired.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population and other drivers
can be used to develop emission scenarios
Inputs
• Sector and technologybased emission factors and
activity data
• Current and future
population data
• Control strategy scenarios
Outputs
• Historical, baseline and
reference scenario
emissions for all pollutants
Toolkit Components
Benefits Calculator
• Links the emissions from LEAP-SLCP or other source to a
global air quality model to estimate concentrations of
particle pollution and ozone
• Estimates benefits using concentration response
relationships for health, crops and climate
• Results distinguish between impacts of foreign and domestic
emissions
Inputs
• Baseline and scenario
emissions data
• Current and future
population data
• Crop yields
Outputs
• Country-level changes in
premature death
• Country-level changes in
crop yield
• Changes in regional
radiative forcing and
surface temperature
Overview of LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator
#1 Create
emission model in
LEAP
#3 Estimate
emission changes
#2 Develop
control strategies
#4 Translate
emissions to air
quality changes
#5 Estimate
Benefits
Gridded Air Quality Data
#6 Report results
Charts
and
Graphs
Summary
tables
The Toolkit: Modeling Emissions,
Air Quality Changes and Benefits
Emissions from LEAP-SLCP or default
emissions data
Health, Climate and
Agricultural Benefits
Air Quality
Concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone calculated
using GEOS-Chem Adjoint - a global air quality model
E.g. population weighted PM2.5
concentration used with response
function for health to give health
number of deaths
Toolkit Components
BenMAP-CE
•
Calculates health impacts and monetized benefits using
ozone and PM2.5 air quality data that the user specifies
Inputs*
• Modeled or monitored air
quality data
• Population counts
• Baseline disease rates
• Concentration-response
relationships
Outputs
• Fine resolution changes in
health outcomes (multiple
spatial, time, and age
endpoints) including
premature mortality and
asthma
• Monetized benefits of
changes in health outcomes
*BenMAP-CE is pre-loaded with data from the Global Burden of Disease study for each country including:
modeled air quality, population, baseline mortality and the integrated exposure-response function. Users
may wish to substitute their own, more detailed, data.
Overview of BenMAP-CE
#1 Select air
pollution data
o
r
Modeled data
Monitored data
Import your own
data
#2 Estimate
number of people
exposed
or
Number of people
exposed
risk
#3 Estimate health
impacts and
economic values
Use default settings
air pollution
#4 Report results
Maps
Summary
tables
Applications
•
•
•
•
Countries just beginning can use the LEAP-SLCP tool to
develop historical emission inventories, baseline and
mitigation scenarios.
Countries with existing emissions data can modify LEAPSLCP with their own data.
All countries can use the Benefits Calculator to estimate
national-level health, crop yield and climate outcomes of
different emissions.
Countries with emissions, air quality modeling or
monitoring data can take advantage of the more refined
health and economic benefit analytic capability available in
the BenMAP-CE tool.
LEAP-SLCP Demo
BenMAP-CE Demo
Next Steps
• LEAP-SLCP/Benefits Calculator
•
•
•
Beta Testing
Peer Review
Planned Enhancements
• Web based user interface
• Add control cost data
• Modeling for additional countries
• BenMAP-CE
•
•
•
Incorporate 2013 Global Burden of Disease data
Online user forum
Training in Brazil, Chile and Thailand
Questions? Contacts
• Stockholm Environment Institute
• Johan Kuylenstierna, Harry Vallack, Charlie Heaps
• Email: [email protected]
• United States Environmental Protection Agency
• Benefits Calculator: Amanda Curry Brown
• Email: [email protected]
• BenMAP-CE: Neal Fann
• Email: [email protected]
• University of Colorado
• Daven Henze
• Email: [email protected]