Profit Measures in Life Insurance Shelly Matushevski Honors Project Spring 2011 The University of Akron 2 Table of Contents I. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 3 II. Loss Function ....................................................................................................................................... 5 III. Equivalence Principle .......................................................................................................................... 7 IV. Profit Measures .................................................................................................................................. 8 a) Profit Margin ............................................................................................................................... 8 b) Internal Rate of Return ................................................................................................................ 9 c) Modified Internal Rate of Return................................................................................................ 10 d) Return on Investment ................................................................................................................ 12 e) Summary of Whole Life Profit Measures .................................................................................... 12 V. Term Life Insurance ........................................................................................................................... 13 VI. Conclusion........................................................................................................................................ 14 APPENDIX .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Works Cited........................................................................................................................................... 22 3 I. Introduction Driving a car, skydiving, cooking dinner, reading a book-- each of these events has a certain risk associated with them. Because of this risk, insurance was created to help manage the effects of a loss. Without insurance, risk would put large burdens on individuals. For example, individuals would have to maintain large emergency funds, the risk of a lawsuit may discourage innovation, and could cause the individual to have excessive worry and fear (Rejda, 2011). Although there are a few ways to handle risk, one of the most common methods for the average person is to buy insurance. Insurance can be defined as “the pooling of fortuitous losses by transfer of such risks to insurers, who agree to indemnify insureds for such losses, to provide other pecuniary benefits on their occurrence, or to render services connected with the risk” (Rejda, 2011). Pooling losses together help to spread the risk over the entire group, and risk reduction results because of the large number of individuals in the group. Statistical theory says: as the number of exposures gets larger, predictions will become more accurate, there is less deviation between the actual losses and the expected losses, and the credibility of the prediction increases. The two separate types of insurance that most people will purchase at some point in their life can be classified into two separate groups: property and casualty (such as auto and home insurance) and life insurance. The major difference between these two groups is that with property and casualty insurance, it is not known whether a loss will occur, as opposed to life insurance where it is not a matter of if a person will die but when. There have been many different types of life insurance dating as far back as the Roman Empire, although there have only been companies selling policies since the 1800s (Ajmera, 2009). The main purpose of the original life insurance in Rome was to cover burial expenses and to assist the living family 4 members of the deceased. The idea of life insurance as we now know it came from England in the 17 th century. The first life insurance company founded in the United States was in South Carolina, and called The Philadelphia Presbyterian Synod. It was for the benefit of the ministers that worked there (Ajmera, 2009). Today, life insurance has evolved quite a bit since its origin. While insurance agents and policy makers are important, some of the most important people behind the scenes are actuaries. Actuaries help a life insurance company by developing “health and long-term-care insurance policies by predicting the likelihood of occurrence of heart disease, diabetes, stroke, cancer, and other chronic ailments among a particular group of people who have something in common, such as living in a certain area or having a family history of illness” (Statistics, 2011). This is beneficial to the company as well as the consumer because it helps to keep premiums more accurate and fair. One of the most important tools to a life insurance actuary is a life table, or mortality table, which will be a majority of the discussion in this paper and can be found in the appendix. It will be used to perform many different calculations including profit margin, internal rate of return, modified internal rate of return, and return on investment, using Microsoft Excel. Calculations such as those that will be discussed in this paper are extremely important to the insurance industry because they help the insurance company accurately and fairly price their policies. Pricing is a large part of what actuaries help with in insurance because the company wants to find the best balance between their profits and costs, while still being able to have low enough prices that consumers will want to buy their product. Some of the calculations in this paper will help show the types of things that are considered when pricing a policy. 5 II. Loss Function For an individual, Table 1 shows an illustrative life table where the interest rate is .06. TABLE 1 Illustrative Life Table: Basic Functions and Single Benefit Premiums at i=.06 Age lx 0 5 10 15 10,000,000 9,749,503 9,705,588 9,663,731 dx 1000qx 250,497 43,915 41,857 45,929 äx 20.42 0.98 0.85 0.91 1000Ax 16.801 17.0379 16.9119 16.7384 qx 49 35.59 42.72 52.55 Ax 0.02042 0.00098 0.00085 0.00091 0.049 0.03559 0.04272 0.05255 This table is the same table that is used for the third actuarial exam, MLC -- life contingencies (SOA, 2008) and the full table can be found in the appendix. These numbers will be used in all calculations throughout this paper. The table spans age zero to age one hundred and ten and the calculations will be using a status age x = 22. The curtate future lifetime variable K is the number of whole years an individual survives. The first calculation performed is the column P(K=k). The formula for this is dx+k /lx where dx+k is the number of decrements in a given year, and lx is the initial number in the group. The next column is the insurance benefit, which will just be one to keep the calculations simple. All calculations for whole life insurance can be found in Table 2, which can be seen below TABLE 2 Discrete Whole Life Age P(K=k) 22 23 24 25 26 27 0.001097 0.001134 0.001174 0.001219 0.001268 0.001321 b PVE 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.94340 0.89000 0.83962 0.79209 0.74726 0.70496 PVR 1.00000 1.94340 2.83339 3.67301 4.46511 5.21236 PVC 0.03500 0.03736 0.03958 0.04168 0.04366 0.04553 v^(k+1) P(K=k)*v^(k+1) (v^k)*(lk/l0) 0.94340 0.89000 0.83962 0.79209 0.74726 0.70496 0.00103 0.00101 0.00099 0.00097 0.00095 0.00093 1.00000 0.94236 0.88801 0.83676 0.78843 0.74286 LF(K) 0.96840 0.90792 0.85087 0.79705 0.74627 0.69837 6 and the full table can be found in the appendix. For an individual age x, the curtate future lifetime random variable K defines the number of whole years lived. The loss function as a function of K is defined as where PVE(K) is the present value of expenditures, PVR(K) is the present value of revenues, and PVC(K) is the present value of costs. The loss function shows either the profit or loss depending on a company’s costs, expenditures, and revenues. Ideally, the loss function should be less than zero, meaning that the revenue being brought in is greater than expenditures and costs. For interest rate i we define the discount value v = (1+i)-1. The present value benefit b payments at future time K+1 is For discrete whole life insurance if benefit b = 1, the expected payment value is The insurance is funded by annuity payments at the start of each surviving year. The present value for unit premiums is For a discrete whole life annuity the expected payment value is 7 The costs are defined as fixed costs, proportion of benefits, and proportion of premiums. Here, b is the unit benefit, fR is the fixed cost renewal, rB,R is the proportion of benefits renewal, rP,R is the proportion of premiums renewal, fI is the fixed cost initial, rB,I is the proportion of benefits initial, rP,I is the proportion of premiums initial, and G is the loaded premium. The present value of costs is for K = 1, 2, … III. Equivalence Principle The equivalence principle requires that parameters in the model are defined so that the expectation of the loss function should be equal to zero giving The equivalence principle allows us to solve our present value of cost equation for the loaded premium G. An insurance premium is composed of two parts: the pure premium and the loaded premium. The pure premium is the actual amount of the discounted expected loss and the loading is the amount of the insurer’s costs and profits (Seog, 2010). To solve for the loaded premium in our present value of cost equation we must be given values for the rest of the variables. For this example, I have chosen values for the benefit, fixed cost renewal, proportion of benefits renewal, proportion of premiums renewal, fixed cost initial, proportion of benefits initial, and proportion of premiums renewal. These values can be found in Table 2. To find the amount of the premium without costs we find the unit benefit premium Px = Ax / äx 8 which gives Px = .004349. Multiplying the benefit of b = $100,000 by Px gives a premium (without costs) of π = $434.90. A loaded premium G is found by including the costs in the loss function. A very useful add-in that Microsoft Excel offers is one called Solver. Solver will be used to solve for the loaded premium G by setting the loss function equal to zero. We will set our target cell equal to zero, which will be the E(LF(K)), by changing the cell containing G, subject to the constraint that the value of G must be greater than or equal to zero. This methods gives G = .008732, and when multiplied by the benefit of $100,000, a loaded premium equal to $873.18. To find the value of the loading, we will take our loaded premium G and subtract out the premium with no costs. The loading is equal to $438.28, meaning that this is the amount that is equal to the insurer’s costs and profits. IV. Profit Measures a) Profit Margin (PM) We apply various profit measures utilized in finance to the situation of discrete whole life insurance. First, the profit margin is defined as which is the negative expected value of the loss function divided by the expected present value of revenues. The equation for the expected value of the loss function is given above and the expected present value of revenue is 9 Two different fixed values of a general loaded premium G will be used to calculate the expected value of the loss function including costs. Changing the value of G to .01 now produces a value of -.0192 for the expected value of the loss function. For comparison, G was also changed to .05, which gives a value of -0.62463 for the expected value of the loss function. The negative values for the expectation of the loss function show that at this value of G, the company is making a profit. The value of G = .01 means that the loaded premium is $1000.00, and a value of G = .05 is a loaded premium of $5000.00, meaning that company has lower costs then when G = .01. Comparing the profit margin of the two values of G shows a much higher profit margin for G = .05 with PM = 0.03801 which would be expected since the loaded premium was so much higher. The PM for G = .01 is 0.00117. b) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Another good indicator of profit is the internal rate of return. IRR is defined as the interest rate that causes the present value of the loss function to be equal to zero. First, we will define The loss function including costs will be computed for each year of life with a loaded premium G= .01, and then the positive and negative loss functions will be separated to compute ) 10 In the preceding equations, A will be represented by the values of K for which the loss function is negative. The positive values of the loss function will be represented by AC, or the complement of A. To find RA, the expectation that the loss function will be less than zero, we will compute for all values of K where the loss function is negative. The same process will be followed for RAC, the complement of RA, but using the values of K that are positive. For this example, the IRR was calculated to be about 4.64%. Two big advantages of using IRR include it being easy to use and understand as well as being closely related to the net present value, and often resulting in the same decision for investments. While IRR is a good profit measure, it does have short comings. The IRR may result in multiple answers and usually cannot deal with nonconventional cash flows. It may also lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually exclusive investments (Ross, Westerfield, & Jordan, 2007). IRR is unable to be used when cash flows switch from negative to positive or vice versa. When this problem arises it is better, and more appropriate to use the MIRR, or modified internal rate of return (IRR, 2008). c) Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) Modified internal rate of return assumes that the positive cash flows from a project are reinvested at the IRR. The MIRR assumes that the positive cash flows are reinvested at the firm’s cost of capital. This helps the MIRR to more accurately reflect the cost and profitability of a project (MIRR, 2009). Assuming that the cash flows are reinvested, to calculate the MIRR all cash flows are compounded to the end of the policy’s life, and then calculate the IRR (Ross, 11 Westerfield, & Jordan, 2007). The profits (over A, as defined above from the IRR process) will be reinvested at rate α for m years so will be the future value of RA, which was previously defined as the expectation of the loss function where it is less than zero. The MIRR is defined as the rate where Then solving for MIRR gives This gives Or if we set eα = 1+j, where j is the reinvestment interest rate, then we get 12 For this example m is equal to 88 and the reinvestment interest rate will be 8% with the loaded premium G = .01. We will want to choose a higher interest rate than six percent because otherwise, we would not want to reinvest. Using these numbers we get an MIRR of about 8.644%. d) Return on Investment (ROI) Another good measure of performance is the return on investment. The ROI is used to measure the efficiency of an investment. To calculate the ROI we take the benefit, or return, of an investment and divide it by the cost of the investment. This is shown by Once calculated, if the ROI is not positive, or there are other investments with higher ROIs, then the investment should not be undertaken (ROI, 2009). Again using a loaded premium of G = .01 and the interest rate at 6%, the ROI is calculated to be 0.0011714. e) Summary of Whole Life Profit Measures For our example with loaded premium G = .01 we found PM IRR MIRR ROI 0.117% 4.64% 8.644% .11714% 13 which shows that overall the company will be making a profit on this policy with a favorable profit measure and positive ROI. The value of MIRR is about double that of IRR. V. Term Life Insurance The above calculations and discussions involved only whole life insurance where benefit b is paid at the end of the year of death. Another popular type of life insurance is term life insurance. Term life insurance provides coverage with a fixed rate of payments for a limited period of time. It is the simplest and least expensive type of policy to buy (Types of Life Insurance Explained, 2007). For this example, we will take a status age x=22 and have them purchase a discrete 30 year term life insurance policy. As above, the present value of expenditures, present value of revenues, and present value of cost is calculated. The formula for the present value of cost will be kept the same and the values for each of fixed cost renewal, proportion of benefits renewal, proportion of premiums renewal, fixed cost initial, proportion of benefits initial, and proportion of premiums initial will be kept the same. One of the major benefits as stated above of term life insurance is lower premiums. When we solve for the premium without costs we get Px = 0.00195, which is about half of the amount of premiums for whole life. Then using the equivalence principle with costs included to solve for G, the loaded premium, we get 0.0390545. This gives the loaded premium equal to $3,905.58 and the loading equal to $3,710.53. Also as we did with the whole life insurance, we can calculate the same profit measures. With a loaded premium of G = .05, the calculated IRR is 1.9934% which is less than the IRR of whole life, but this 14 was expected. The MIRR was found to be 6.6273%, again less than the value of the MIRR of whole life. The profit margin PM is 0.009966 and the ROI is 0.010067. The following table summarizes the profit measures for term life insurance. PM 0.9966% IRR MIRR ROI 1.99% 6.63% 1.0067% Comparing the whole life summary table and the term life summary table we can see that the IRR and MIRR of the term life insurance is much lower than that of whole life. Conversely, the profit margin and the ROI are higher for term than for whole life. VI. Conclusion Overall, the calculations performed here were extremely simplistic compared to some calculations that are made in pricing a policy. Many other factors such as health, geographic area, age, preexisting conditions, as well as other things could be taken into account to price a policy. Another important thing to note is the type of policy also plays a large role in the price, shown here through the calculations of whole life insurance versus term life insurance. Other types of life insurance such as variable, universal, universal variable, joint, endowment, along with many others will each have their own pricing and benefits. It is up to the consumer to decide which type is affordable and fits their lifestyle. All in all, actuaries are an integral part of appropriately pricing and analyzing life insurance calculations and policies. 15 APPENDIX TABLE 1 Illustrative Life Table: Basic Functions and Single Benefit Premiums at i=.06 Age lx 0 5 10 15 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 10,000,000 9,749,503 9,705,588 9,663,731 9,617,802 9,607,896 9,597,695 9,587,169 9,576,288 9,565,017 9,553,319 9,541,153 9,528,475 9,515,235 9,501,381 9,486,854 9,471,591 9,455,522 9,438,571 9,420,657 9,401,688 9,381,566 9,360,184 9,337,427 9,313,166 9,287,264 9,259,571 9,229,925 9,198,149 9,164,051 9,127,426 9,088,049 9,045,679 9,000,057 8,950,901 8,897,913 8,840,770 8,779,128 8,712,621 8,640,861 dx 250,497 43,915 41,857 45,929 9,906 10,201 10,526 10,881 11,271 11,698 12,166 12,678 13,240 13,854 14,527 15,263 16,069 16,951 17,914 18,969 20,122 21,382 22,757 24,261 25,902 27,693 29,646 31,776 34,098 36,625 39,377 42,370 45,622 49,156 52,988 57,143 61,642 66,507 71,760 77,426 1000qx 20.42 0.98 0.85 0.91 1.03 1.06 1.1 1.13 1.18 1.22 1.27 1.33 1.39 1.46 1.53 1.61 1.7 1.79 1.9 2.01 2.14 2.28 2.43 2.6 2.78 2.98 3.2 3.44 3.71 4 4.31 4.66 5.04 5.46 5.92 6.42 6.97 7.58 8.24 8.96 äx 16.801 17.0379 16.9119 16.7384 16.5133 16.4611 16.4061 16.3484 16.2878 16.2242 16.1574 16.0873 16.0139 15.9368 15.8561 15.7716 15.6831 15.5906 15.4938 15.3926 15.287 15.1767 15.0616 14.9416 14.8166 14.6864 14.551 14.4102 14.2639 14.1121 13.9546 13.7914 13.6224 13.4475 13.2668 13.0803 12.8879 12.6896 12.4856 12.2758 1000Ax 49 35.59 42.72 52.55 65.28 68.24 71.35 74.62 78.05 81.65 85.43 89.4 93.56 97.92 102.48 107.27 112.28 117.51 122.99 128.72 134.7 140.94 147.46 154.25 161.32 168.69 176.36 184.33 192.61 201.2 210.12 219.36 228.92 238.82 249.05 259.61 270.5 281.72 293.27 305.14 qx 0.02042 0.00098 0.00085 0.00091 0.00103 0.00106 0.0011 0.00113 0.00118 0.00122 0.00127 0.00133 0.00139 0.00146 0.00153 0.00161 0.0017 0.00179 0.0019 0.00201 0.00214 0.00228 0.00243 0.0026 0.00278 0.00298 0.0032 0.00344 0.00371 0.004 0.00431 0.00466 0.00504 0.00546 0.00592 0.00642 0.00697 0.00758 0.00824 0.00896 Ax 0.049 0.03559 0.04272 0.05255 0.06528 0.06824 0.07135 0.07462 0.07805 0.08165 0.08543 0.0894 0.09356 0.09792 0.10248 0.10727 0.11228 0.11751 0.12299 0.12872 0.1347 0.14094 0.14746 0.15425 0.16132 0.16869 0.17636 0.18433 0.19261 0.2012 0.21012 0.21936 0.22892 0.23882 0.24905 0.25961 0.2705 0.28172 0.29327 0.30514 16 Table 1 Cont’d 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 8,563,435 8,479,908 8,389,826 8,292,713 8,188,074 8,075,403 7,954,179 7,823,879 7,683,979 7,533,964 7,373,338 7,201,635 7,018,432 6,823,367 6,616,155 6,396,609 6,164,663 5,920,394 5,664,051 5,396,081 5,117,152 4,828,182 4,530,360 4,225,163 3,914,365 3,600,038 3,284,542 2,970,496 2,660,734 2,358,246 2,066,090 1,787,299 1,524,758 1,281,083 1,058,491 858,676 682,707 530,959 403,072 297,981 213,977 148,832 99,965 64,617 40,049 83,527 90,082 97,113 104,639 112,671 121,224 130,300 139,900 150,015 160,626 171,703 183,203 195,065 207,212 219,546 231,946 244,269 256,343 267,970 278,929 288,970 297,822 305,197 310,798 314,327 315,496 314,046 309,762 302,488 292,156 278,791 262,541 243,675 222,592 199,815 175,969 151,748 127,887 105,091 84,004 65,145 48,867 35,348 24,568 16,344 9.75 10.62 11.58 12.62 13.76 15.01 16.38 17.88 19.52 21.32 23.29 25.44 27.79 30.37 33.18 36.26 39.62 43.3 47.31 51.69 56.47 61.68 67.37 73.56 80.3 87.64 95.61 104.28 113.69 123.89 134.94 146.89 159.81 173.75 188.77 204.93 222.27 240.86 260.73 281.91 304.45 328.34 353.6 380.2 408.12 12.0604 11.8395 11.6133 11.3818 11.1454 10.9041 10.6584 10.4084 10.1544 9.8969 9.6362 9.3726 9.1066 8.8387 8.5693 8.2988 8.0278 7.7568 7.4864 7.217 6.9493 6.6836 6.4207 6.161 5.905 5.6533 5.4063 5.1645 4.9282 4.698 4.4742 4.2571 4.047 3.8442 3.6488 3.4611 3.2812 3.1091 2.945 2.7888 2.6406 2.5002 2.3676 2.2426 2.1252 317.33 329.84 342.65 355.75 369.13 382.79 396.7 410.85 425.22 439.8 454.56 469.47 484.53 499.7 514.95 530.26 545.6 560.93 576.24 591.49 606.65 621.68 636.56 651.26 665.75 680 693.98 707.67 721.04 734.07 746.74 759.03 770.92 782.41 793.46 804.09 814.27 824.01 833.3 842.14 850.53 858.48 865.99 873.06 879.7 0.00975 0.01062 0.01158 0.01262 0.01376 0.01501 0.01638 0.01788 0.01952 0.02132 0.02329 0.02544 0.02779 0.03037 0.03318 0.03626 0.03962 0.0433 0.04731 0.05169 0.05647 0.06168 0.06737 0.07356 0.0803 0.08764 0.09561 0.10428 0.11369 0.12389 0.13494 0.14689 0.15981 0.17375 0.18877 0.20493 0.22227 0.24086 0.26073 0.28191 0.30445 0.32834 0.3536 0.3802 0.40812 0.31733 0.32984 0.34265 0.35575 0.36913 0.38279 0.3967 0.41085 0.42522 0.4398 0.45456 0.46947 0.48453 0.4997 0.51495 0.53026 0.5456 0.56093 0.57624 0.59149 0.60665 0.62168 0.63656 0.65126 0.66575 0.68 0.69398 0.70767 0.72104 0.73407 0.74674 0.75903 0.77092 0.78241 0.79346 0.80409 0.81427 0.82401 0.8333 0.84214 0.85053 0.85848 0.86599 0.87306 0.8797 17 Table 1 Cont’d 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 23,705 13,339 7,101 3,558 1,668 727 292 108 36 11 10,366 6,238 3,543 1,890 941 435 184 72 25 11 437.28 467.61 498.99 531.28 564.29 597.83 631.64 665.45 698.97 731.87 2.0152 1.9123 1.8164 1.7273 1.6447 1.5685 1.4984 1.4341 1.3755 1.3223 885.93 891.76 897.19 902.23 906.9 911.22 915.19 918.82 922.14 925.15 0.43728 0.46761 0.49899 0.53128 0.56429 0.59783 0.63164 0.66545 0.69897 0.73187 0.88593 0.89176 0.89719 0.90223 0.9069 0.91122 0.91519 0.91882 0.92214 0.92515 18 i= 0.06 TABLE 2 Discrete Whole Life Age P(K=k) 0 5 10 15 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 0.001097 0.001134 0.001174 0.001219 0.001268 0.001321 0.001379 0.001443 0.001514 0.00159 0.001674 0.001766 0.001866 0.001976 0.002097 0.002228 0.002371 0.002528 0.002699 0.002885 0.003089 0.003311 0.003553 0.003816 0.004103 0.004415 0.004753 0.005122 0.005521 0.005954 0.006423 0.006929 0.007477 0.008067 b PVE 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.94340 0.89000 0.83962 0.79209 0.74726 0.70496 0.66506 0.62741 0.59190 0.55839 0.52679 0.49697 0.46884 0.44230 0.41727 0.39365 0.37136 0.35034 0.33051 0.31180 0.29416 0.27751 0.26180 0.24698 0.23300 0.21981 0.20737 0.19563 0.18456 0.17411 0.16425 0.15496 0.14619 0.13791 PVR PVC 1.00000 1.94340 2.83339 3.67301 4.46511 5.21236 5.91732 6.58238 7.20979 7.80169 8.36009 8.88687 9.38384 9.85268 10.29498 10.71225 11.10590 11.47726 11.82760 12.15812 12.46992 12.76408 13.04158 13.30338 13.55036 13.78336 14.00317 14.21053 14.40616 14.59072 14.76483 14.92909 15.08404 15.23023 0.03500 0.03736 0.03958 0.04168 0.04366 0.04553 0.04729 0.04896 0.05052 0.05200 0.05340 0.05472 0.05596 0.05713 0.05824 0.05928 0.06026 0.06119 0.06207 0.06290 0.06367 0.06441 0.06510 0.06576 0.06638 0.06696 0.06751 0.06803 0.06852 0.06898 0.06941 0.06982 0.07021 0.07058 v^(k+1) 0.94340 0.89000 0.83962 0.79209 0.74726 0.70496 0.66506 0.62741 0.59190 0.55839 0.52679 0.49697 0.46884 0.44230 0.41727 0.39365 0.37136 0.35034 0.33051 0.31180 0.29416 0.27751 0.26180 0.24698 0.23300 0.21981 0.20737 0.19563 0.18456 0.17411 0.16425 0.15496 0.14619 0.13791 LF(K) 0.96840 0.90792 0.85087 0.79705 0.74627 0.69837 0.65318 0.61054 0.57033 0.53238 0.49659 0.46282 0.43096 0.40091 0.37255 0.34580 0.32057 0.29676 0.27431 0.25312 0.23313 0.21427 0.19649 0.17970 0.16387 0.14893 0.13484 0.12155 0.10901 0.09718 0.08602 0.07549 0.06556 0.05618 19 Table 2 Cont’d 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 0.008703 0.009386 0.010118 0.010903 0.011739 0.012631 0.013576 0.014576 0.01563 0.016736 0.01789 0.019088 0.020324 0.02159 0.022875 0.024167 0.025451 0.026709 0.02792 0.029062 0.030108 0.031031 0.031799 0.032383 0.03275 0.032872 0.032721 0.032275 0.031517 0.03044 0.029048 0.027355 0.025389 0.023192 0.020819 0.018335 0.015811 0.013325 0.01095 0.008753 0.006788 0.005092 0.003683 0.00256 0.001703 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.13011 0.12274 0.11579 0.10924 0.10306 0.09722 0.09172 0.08653 0.08163 0.07701 0.07265 0.06854 0.06466 0.06100 0.05755 0.05429 0.05122 0.04832 0.04558 0.04300 0.04057 0.03827 0.03610 0.03406 0.03213 0.03031 0.02860 0.02698 0.02545 0.02401 0.02265 0.02137 0.02016 0.01902 0.01794 0.01693 0.01597 0.01507 0.01421 0.01341 0.01265 0.01193 0.01126 0.01062 0.01002 15.36814 15.49825 15.62099 15.73678 15.84602 15.94907 16.04630 16.13802 16.22454 16.30617 16.38318 16.45583 16.52437 16.58903 16.65003 16.70757 16.76186 16.81308 16.86139 16.90697 16.94998 16.99054 17.02881 17.06492 17.09898 17.13111 17.16143 17.19003 17.21701 17.24246 17.26647 17.28912 17.31049 17.33065 17.34967 17.36762 17.38454 17.40051 17.41558 17.42979 17.44320 17.45585 17.46778 17.47904 17.48966 0.07092 0.07125 0.07155 0.07184 0.07212 0.07237 0.07262 0.07285 0.07306 0.07327 0.07346 0.07364 0.07381 0.07397 0.07413 0.07427 0.07440 0.07453 0.07465 0.07477 0.07487 0.07498 0.07507 0.07516 0.07525 0.07533 0.07540 0.07548 0.07554 0.07561 0.07567 0.07572 0.07578 0.07583 0.07587 0.07592 0.07596 0.07600 0.07604 0.07607 0.07611 0.07614 0.07617 0.07620 0.07622 0.13011 0.12274 0.11579 0.10924 0.10306 0.09722 0.09172 0.08653 0.08163 0.07701 0.07265 0.06854 0.06466 0.06100 0.05755 0.05429 0.05122 0.04832 0.04558 0.04300 0.04057 0.03827 0.03610 0.03406 0.03213 0.03031 0.02860 0.02698 0.02545 0.02401 0.02265 0.02137 0.02016 0.01902 0.01794 0.01693 0.01597 0.01507 0.01421 0.01341 0.01265 0.01193 0.01126 0.01062 0.01002 0.04734 0.03900 0.03114 0.02371 0.01671 0.01010 0.00387 -0.00201 -0.00755 -0.01279 -0.01772 -0.02238 -0.02677 -0.03092 -0.03483 -0.03852 -0.04200 -0.04528 -0.04838 -0.05130 -0.05406 -0.05666 -0.05911 -0.06143 -0.06361 -0.06567 -0.06761 -0.06945 -0.07118 -0.07281 -0.07435 -0.07580 -0.07717 -0.07846 -0.07968 -0.08083 -0.08191 -0.08294 -0.08390 -0.08482 -0.08567 -0.08649 -0.08725 -0.08797 -0.08865 20 Table 2 Cont’d 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 0.00108 0.00065 0.000369 0.000197 9.8E-05 4.53E-05 1.92E-05 7.5E-06 2.6E-06 1.15E-06 Costs First Year Fixed Benefit Premium 0.01 0.02 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.00945 0.00892 0.00841 0.00794 0.00749 0.00706 0.00666 0.00629 0.00593 0.00559 17.49968 17.50913 17.51805 17.52646 17.53440 17.54188 17.54895 17.55561 17.56190 17.56783 0.07625 0.07627 0.07630 0.07632 0.07634 0.07635 0.07637 0.07639 0.07640 0.07642 0.00945 0.00892 0.00841 0.00794 0.00749 0.00706 0.00666 0.00629 0.00593 0.00559 Costs Renewal Fixed Benefit Premium 0.001 0.001 0.05 -0.08930 -0.08990 -0.09047 -0.09101 -0.09152 -0.09200 -0.09245 -0.09288 -0.09328 -0.09366 21 i= 0.06 TABLE 3 Discrete 30 Year Term Age P(K=k) 0 5 10 15 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 0.001097 0.001134 0.001174 0.001219 0.001268 0.001321 0.001379 0.001443 0.001514 0.00159 0.001674 0.001766 0.001866 0.001976 0.002097 0.002228 0.002371 0.002528 0.002699 0.002885 0.003089 0.003311 0.003553 0.003816 0.004103 0.004415 0.004753 0.005122 0.005521 0.005954 b 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PVE PVR 0.943396 0.889996 0.839619 0.792094 0.747258 0.704961 0.665057 0.627412 0.591898 0.558395 0.526788 0.496969 0.468839 0.442301 0.417265 0.393646 0.371364 0.350344 0.330513 0.311805 0.294155 0.277505 0.261797 0.246979 0.232999 0.21981 0.207368 0.19563 0.184557 0.17411 1 1.943396 2.833393 3.673012 4.465106 5.212364 5.917324 6.582381 7.209794 7.801692 8.360087 8.886875 9.383844 9.852683 10.29498 10.71225 11.1059 11.47726 11.8276 12.15812 12.46992 12.76408 13.04158 13.30338 13.55036 13.78336 14.00317 14.21053 14.40616 14.59072 PVC 0.055 0.059245283 0.063250267 0.067028554 0.070592975 0.073955637 0.077127959 0.080120716 0.082944072 0.085607615 0.088120392 0.090490936 0.092727298 0.094837073 0.096827428 0.09870512 0.100476529 0.102147669 0.103724216 0.105211524 0.106614645 0.107938345 0.109187118 0.110365205 0.111476609 0.112525103 0.113514248 0.114447404 0.115327739 0.116158245 LF(K) 0.948396 0.852072 0.7612 0.675472 0.594596 0.518298 0.446319 0.378414 0.314353 0.253918 0.196904 0.143117 0.092374 0.044504 -0.000657 -0.043261 -0.083454 -0.121372 -0.157143 -0.19089 -0.222726 -0.25276 -0.281095 -0.307825 -0.333043 -0.356833 -0.379276 -0.400449 -0.420424 -0.439268 22 Works Cited Ajmera, R. 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