Regional job losses and demographic change in New Zealand
Rachael Hutt
Masters Student
National Institute of Demographic
and Economic Analysis (NIDEA)
Concurrent Session 3c
PANZ Conference, Wellington
Friday 27 June 2013
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Aim / Research Question
To what extent do mill closures and job losses
influence population change in rural towns
across New Zealand.
Image Source: Sign of the Times (2010)
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Background
IN BRIEF:
At the grandest scale, multiple factors are
impacting on regional decline, such as:
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Fertility decline
Migration
Population ageing
Industry Shocks – this is where my work fits in
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Background - continued
ALSO IN BRIEF:
This research is related to the following theories:
Demographic Transition Theory
Thompson (1934) Notestein (1945) and Davis (1945)
Theory of Depopulation
Natalie Jackson (forthcoming)
Cumulative Causation
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Documenting Industry Shocks
• Newztext Plus database within The Knowledge
Basket to collect articles
• Microsoft Excel to create two spreadsheets:
a) Article database – reference information
b) Industry Shocks database:
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Name of corporation/company/mill/factory
Location (Coded at RC level)
Industry Type (ANZSIC Codes)
Number of Jobs Lost
Date of closure/shock
Source Codes
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In the Headlines
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When do the job losses stop?
Not this
week
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Preliminary Findings
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Preliminary Findings – Industries
Industries that appear to have experienced
greatest losses were in the manufacturing sector:
 Pulp and Paper (C15)
 Log Sawmilling and other timber related
activities (C14)
 Food (C11)
 Textile, Leather, Clothing and Footwear (C13)
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New Zealand Owned and Operated
Closures by companies considered to be “New
Zealand’s own” or who had promised to keep
plants open sparked the most media interest,
especially:
Fisher & Paykel
Fletcher Building
Carter Holt Harvey
Sanitarium Weetbix
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Limitations
• Current definition of ‘industry shocks’
– Presently used to incorporate mill, factory and plant
closures
– Currently working on including general ‘job losses’
(no closure but still a shock) into database
– Would also like to expand to include articles related
to mining and farming shocks
• Database is based on the reporting of events by
the media
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The Next Step
• Choose a region or industry to use as case study
• Examine age-sex structures of the past and
present populations of that place
• Create projections for the future
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Let me pick your brains…
If this is an area that:
• you are well researched in,
• you know someone who is, or
• you have any tips and/or questions…
Let’s chat over lunch 
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Thankyou
[email protected]
www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea
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References
The Knowledge Basket
Sign of the Times. (2010). http://www.sott.net/article/217064-American-Job-Loss-Is-Permanent
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