A disaster waiting to happen? Tsunamis, elderly
people and rest homes in Mt Maunganui
Rachael McMillan
Research Officer,
National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis
Student dissertation
Presentation to PANZ Conference
Wellington, NZ
27-28 June 2013
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Background
• Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction 2009
• Elderly people suffer more than the general populace
from natural hazard events both in the event itself
and the aftermath
• More than 70% of deaths related to Hurricane
Katrina were from elderly people – they made up
15% of the population
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Case study - Mt Maunganui and elderly people
• Is there a problem?
• Would building rest homes out of at risk areas
be feasible?
Overall place vulnerability - likelihood of an
event occurring, location, mitigation or
reduction measures, and social conditions
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Research design
• Ethics approval – University of Waikato
Mixed method approach:
• Technical reports GNS, NIWA, BOPRC etc. hazard
zones, risk levels
• Census data
• Ministry of Health data
• Semi-structured interviews from retirement villages,
rest homes, District and Regional Councils, Civil
Defence, and District Health Board
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Tsunamis – how likely?
Tsunami sources
(Berryman, 2005)
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Return period - Palaeotsunami data
Summary of known past tsunami events - Bay of Plenty (historical
and sediment deposits - last 4000 years)
Estimated
tsunami
run-up
height
No. of
events
< 0.5m
0.5-1 m
1-3 m
3-5 m
>5m
>6
1
4-5
*
5-6
(Bell, et al., 2004) * these cannot yet be identified through soil deposits
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Landscape
•
•
•
•
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Modified landscape
Low lying
Limited escape routes
No vertical evacuation
structures
If the big one happened!
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Bay of Plenty – Population aged 65+
30
Medium projections
80,660
% of population 65+
25
61,280
20
44,810
15
Bay of Plenty
New Zealand
10
5
0
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Census year
2021
2026
2031
(Statistics NZ, 2007), NIDEA
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Coastal communities - Age 65 +
35
Age 65+ % of population
30
25
20
NZ average 12.3%
15
10
5
0
Mt Maunganui
North
Omanu
Arataki
Te Maunga
Census area unit
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Pacific View
Palm Beach
(Statistics NZ, 2006)
Elderly and disaster
• Mobility problems and lack of physical
strength
• Medical and dietary care needs are
“rarely taken into account” in the
aftermath of a disaster (Ngo, 2012, p.
449)
• Elderly people suffer physically,
psychologically, socially and economically
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Level of disability, by age and residential status, 2001
Percentage of elderly people
90
80
70
60
50
40
65-74
30
75+
20
10
0
Mild
Moderate
Severe
Mild
Household population
Severe
Residential care population
(Source: Ministry of Health, 2002; Cornwall and Davey, 2004)
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Moderate
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Rest homes and retirement villages in Mt Maunganui
Rest homes
3
183 beds
Retirement
villages
2
307 dwelling
units
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Evacuation issues
Rest homes/Retirement villages/Elderly in the community
• Rest homes – evacuation plans (largely ineffective)
• No vertical evacuation facilities
• Loss of power
• Potential loss of staff to rescue own families
• Elderly people in rest homes are at very high risk
• Low priority for evacuation
• Elderly people of limited mobility/severe disability in the
community are just as risk as those in rest homes
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Is there a problem???
Yes there is!
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Taking action
Design and location strategies to reducing risk to
built vulnerability
• Location – land use planning, zoning
• Design – building codes, vertical evacuation
structures, requiring rest homes to be built
with several levels
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Feasibility – rest homes
• Social spatial issues – there to fulfil a demand
• Perceptions of risk
• Risk and responsibility – individual risk vs community
resilience
• Human rights
• Political challenges
• Economic practicalities
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Conclusion
Building rest homes out of at risk zones will:
• Improve community resilience and enable
faster recovery (only marginally)
• Reduce pressure on rescuers
• Face intense challenge
• Have minimal impact on the vulnerability of
the wider community
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Policy suggestions
• Government policy – elderly people in their
own homes for longer
• Elderly people policy – consider location,
vulnerability and risk
• Planning for elderly people – further social
vulnerability studies
• Pro-active strategies required
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Final comments
“The more lead up time, the better. The risk is
real.”
“We’ve got the ability to assess the risk. I think
we ought to have the compassion to respond to
the risk, address it and manage it.”
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• Thank you
• Enquiries welcome
• [email protected]
• www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea
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Evacuation structures
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Bay of Plenty – Age group distribution
35
30
25
Percentage of pop. aged 65+
20
1996
2001
15
2006
10
5
0
65-69 years
70-74 years
75-79 years
Age groups
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80-84 years
85+ years
“SUPPOSING WE COULD MANAGE TO LOAD UP ALL 86
PEOPLE AND HEAD FOR [HIGH GROUND], THEN YOU
HAVE PROBLEMS THEREAFTER; TOILETS, HOT AND
COLD WATER, EVEN IF YOU DO GET TO A SAFE ZONE.
WE COULD BE TAKING THEM FROM ONE DANGER TO
ANOTHER.”
– REST HOME MANAGER
Fatalism
• “If it comes, I hope it is sudden and
devastating and it gets rid of me” –
Elderly participant
• “[They say] I can’t walk, I can’t do
anything, I may as well sit here, have
a glass of sherry and let it happen” –
Participant
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Triage or evacuation priorities?
• “Looking at who you can save, [the authorities] will look
at pre-schoolers and school age children and rest homes
will probably be further down the list.”
– Professional participant
• Who gets out? - “Is your responsibility to your staff or to
your residents? – It’s a hell of a question” – Participant
• “[If the tsunami was close] it would only be staff who go.
Nobody else would get time to go. You couldn’t get [the
elderly] to go. They wouldn’t move fast enough to get
out.” – Rest Home Manager
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Perceptions of risk - feasibility
• “It didn’t occur to me when I came [into the retirement
village] that [tsunamis] could be an anxiety I would have. I
am conscious of the risk that I hadn’t thought of.” – Elderly
Participant
• “There are always those who think it is not going to happen
to me and I am probably in that category.” – Elderly
Participant
• “The resident community [at the retirement village] would
fiercely oppose being told where [they could or] couldn’t
live because there was a slight risk that a natural disaster
could impact on them more than on younger folk.” –
Retirement Village Manager
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