Census in flux:
Census methodologies in global context - 1985-2014
Dr Tahu Kukutai – NIDEA
Dr Victor Thompson – Rider University
Rachael McMillan – Research Officer, NIDEA
Presentation to PANZ Conference
Wellington, NZ
27-28 June 2013
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Context
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Cost of census taking
Declining response rates
Timely data
Privacy
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The research
Examine the global patterns of census
methodology over the last three rounds:
• What sort of shift has there been towards
alternative census models?
• What has been the timing of the shift?
• What are the common factors?
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Methodology
• United Nations – census round dates and types
• Problem: Inconsistencies in UN determinations of census type
• Fix: Process of triangulation
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Accessing central statistics bureaus
Statistical publications from government statistics departments
Reports and journal articles – census researchers
News articles (only one case)
Where no verification – adopt UN coding
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Global census overview
1990 round
2000 round
2010 round
Undertook a
census
201
(86%)
197
(85%)
221*
(95%)
Alternative
methods
8
(3%)
12
(5%)
31
(13%)
No census
32
(14%)
36
(15%)
12
(5%)
*Includes 25 planned
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2008 UNECE census regulation
• Census definition has been widened
 Enumeration
 Simultaneity
 Universality
 Defined periodicity
• Census defined by output not the methodology used
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Global census breakdown
1990 Round
2000 Round
2010 Round
190
184
187*
Enumeration + survey
0
1
2
Enumeration + registers
3
3
7
Enumeration + register + survey
0
0
1
Register only
4
5
10
Register + survey
1
3
10
Rolling
0
0
1
Other
2
1
3
Register, no census
5
6
0
27
30
12
233
233
233
Enumeration only
No census
Total
*Includes 25 planned
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A pattern of change
1990 round
2000 round
2010 round
Alternative
countries
8
(3.4%)
12
(5.2%)
31
(13.3%)
Use of admin
registers
8
(3.4%)
11
(4.7%)
28
(12.0%)
Use of
surveys
1
(0.4%)
4
(1.7%)
13
(5.6%)
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Traditional NOT old-fashioned
• Use of e technology – self
enumeration
• GPS and GIS
• Enumerators using lap-tops – transfer
data once a day
• Handheld devices – terminals to
replace paper
• Computer assisted telephone
interviewing (CATI)
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One of a kind: Poland
Enumeration + register + survey:
• Administration sources
• Self enumeration – internet
• Telephone interviews – CATI method
• Field enumeration with handheld devices –
CAPI
Key requirement: PIN – Person identification
number
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A gradual process: Nordic countries
Central
Population
register
Established
First used in
census
Total register
based census
Timeframe
Denmark
1968
1981
1981
13 years
Finland
1969
1970
1990
21 years
Norway
1964
1970
2011
47 years
Sweden
1967
1976
2005
38 years
Modified from Tonder, J. (2008). Updated with Ethnicity Counts data 2013.
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Precursors
•Statutory frameworks in place to enable
statistical use of administrative sources, linking
across sources and to protect personal privacy
•Public approval
•Identification systems are unified, so that data
linkage is facilitated
•Comprehensive and reliable registers
(Ralphs & Tutton, 2011, p. 6)
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A leap of faith: Austria
• Central Register of Residence (CRR) was established 2001 –
operational 2002
• Register and de-register by law within 3 working days
• Unique identifier attached to place of residence
• Council of Ministers decision June 2000
• New demographic data system – processes by individual data
by main residence
• (POPREG) – population register
 Flow data
 Stock data
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Conclusion
What sort of shift has there been towards alternative models?
• Birthplace Europe, spreading beyond
• Long way to being a global shift
What has been the timing of the shift?
• 3% alternative in 1990 round
• 5% in 2000 round
• 13% in 2010 round
What are the common factors?
• Innovative technologies
• 28/31 alternative countries using admin register variables
• Survey methodology increased from 0.4% in 1990 to 5.6% in 2010
• Register-based census - a gradual process with necessary precursors
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Thank you
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