PANZ Conference, Wellington, 27 June 2013
From a ‘dying race’ to global innovators:
Māori population in the 21st century
Dr Tahu Kukutai
National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis
The University of Waikato
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In a nutshell
• Māori population + policy = population
pathology
• Resilience and adaptation downplayed
• Opportunity to indigenize population
research from the bottom up and top down
• Value proposition for demography as a
discipline; for Māori and for NZ
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Part I: Maori Population & Policy
POPULATION PATHOLOGY
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The ‘dying race’
• Popular narratives “smooth the dying pillow”
• ‘Scientific’ accounts –
Fenton’s 1857/58 census
• Solution: fixity of
residence & adoption of
European mores
Charles Goldie: ‘Memories: the last of her tribe”
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The whitening of Maori
• new narrative of decline: absorption
• tracking ‘half caste’ growth
• doubts over whether “the race can survive the
gradual infiltration of European strains” (1926
census)
• surveys of miscegenation, focusing on children
of Maori origin (1951- 1961)
• fractional identities persisted through to 1981
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Making Māori productive
Integration
• Integrating Maori into postwar economy
• policies to encourage
urbanward movement
• self-reliance & modernity
• stereotypes & dysfunction
• 1961 Hunn Report & sliding
scale of entitlement
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Lessening the burden
• achieving statistical equalities with non-Maori
+ explicit recognition that inequality exists
+ solution driven; policy relevant
- non-Māori outcomes as the desired state
- focus on changing individual behaviours;
history & structural mechanisms ignored
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Why does any of this matter?
• ‘Evidence’ seen to represents ‘reality’ and
informs actions for desired outcomes
• History & legacy of colonialism ignored
• Māori as a problem to be solved rather than
as part of the solution
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Part II : Maori Demographic Shifts
RESILIENCE &
ADAPTATION
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600,000
60
500,000
50
400,000
40
300,000
30
200,000
20
100,000
10
0
0
Census Years
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Percentage
Population (number)
Demographic recovery
Māori
population
Māori as a
proportion
of total
population
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2009
2005
2001
1997
1993
1989
1985
1981
1977
1973
1969
1965
1961
1957
1953
1949
1945
1941
1937
1933
1929
1925
1921
Total Fertility Rate
The 2nd DT - fertility
7
6
5
All
Females
4
3
2
1
Māori
Females
0
The 2nd Māori migration
2nd Māori
migration
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Ethnic intermarriage 2006
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Part III: New approaches
INNOVATION
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Measuring Māori wellbeing in Auckland
• Project lead by the Independent Māori
Statutory Board
• Measure & monitor the wellbeing of Māori in
Auckland
– What constitutes wellbeing? Who decides?
– How do we measure it? Should we measure it?
What kinds of indicators?
– What will the data sources be?
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A Māori values-based approach
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Rangatiratanga: Leadership & Participation
Voices from the people
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Indigenising official statistics
5 key principles :
Framing
Relevance
Inclusiveness
Building capability
Self-determination
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Part IV: Opportunities
THE VALUE PROPOSITION
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For demography
• Opportunity to try new approaches
• Lessons to take to the world
• NZ’s unique cultural demography – much
promise for theorising and evidence-based
research
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For Māori
Opportunities
+ Maori/Iwi economy
+ Leverage diaspora
+ Foster migrant ties
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Risks
- Segmentation
- Lose connections
- New hierarchies
For New Zealand
• Rise of the Maori Economy – the ‘Maori edge’
(NZIER & TPK) & value from indigenous
distinctiveness in a global market
• Collateral Maori Demographic Dividend –
Jackson
• Regional champions – in it for the long-haul
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