Does New Zealand need a Population Policy?
-and if so, what should it be?
Natalie Jackson
Professor of Demography, Director,
National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis (NIDEA)
Plenary presentation to the Biennial
Population Association of New
Zealand Conference, Wellington, NZ
June 2013
©NIDEA
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What is a ‘Population Policy’?
• Population Policy = specific strategies (laws,
regulations, administrative programs, procedures) for
achieving or influencing population size and/or rate
of growth
– Formally articulated objectives and the means for
achieving them
• Westerners tend not to like them.. while being happy
to impose on developing countries
• However – most policies (and non-policies) have
demographic impacts
– Therefore policies don’t need to be ‘population’
©NIDEA
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Percentage of all growth
Key Issue #1: How will NZ’s future growth be shared?
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Percentage share of growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012
update)
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©NIDEA
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
Key Issue #2: Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth
120
New Zealand: Projected change by age (%)
Percentage Change
100
2011-2021 (8.9%)
80
2011-2031 (17.9%)
60
40
20
0
Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012
Update)
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©NIDEA
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-20
New Zealand is part of a MUCH bigger picture.. (where our skilled
migrants come from)
MDCs (58)
65+ Years
Medium Series
All other age
groups
combined
2011-2021
(2.9%)
25%
-1.3%
2011-2031
(4.6%)
49%
(+98 million)
-3.9%
(-41million)
US Census Bureau International Database: More Developed Countries by age and sex
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Key Issue #3: 2/3 of ALL
growth 2011-2031
will be at 65+ years
Subnationally- all dark
red TA’s have more than
100 per cent of ‘growth’
at 65+ years; all are
projected to experience
overall decline at 0-64
years
• 1996-2011 32
TAs (48%)
• 2011-2031 56
TAs (84%)
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Issue #4: 1/3 TAs already
in arguably permanent
decline
This matters a lot to
those who own houses,
businesses, employ
people, have to plan for
services..
It matters to local
councils
It matters to rate-payers
Ultimately it matters to
the whole country
©NIDEA
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Issue #5: Migration does not resolve population ageing
With same birth rate and life expectancy*
Zero Migration
(5.1m, 28.3% 65+
years)
Number (millions)
7.0
6.0
5.0
Medium (6m,
25.8% 65+ years)
4.0
3.0
2.0
V High Migration
(7m, 24.5% 65+
years)
1.0
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
0.0
*Stats NZ: TFR 1.9 by 2031; Life Expectancy 88.1 (M), 90.5 (F) in 2061
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NZ Grain, Sheep, Beef Farming #10
Issue #6: Who will work on/buy the farms?
1996 (41,298)
Male
65+
60-64
55-59
2006 (38,634)
Female
SelfEmployed,
Without
Employees
60-64
Employer
55-59
65+
50-54
45-49
40-44
50-54
45-49
Paid
Employee
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
35-39
Unpaid
Family
Worker
30-34
25-29
NS/NEI
5
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
percentage at each age
20-24
2
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
percentage at each age
55+ years 36.5%
55+ years 25.1%
©NIDEA
Female
Male
9
5.0
Issue #7: Who will buy the houses?
Buller District 2011
(2031 Unshaded)
Male
6000
Female
5000
4000
Accumulators
(25-64)
Number
Decumulators
(65+ )
3000
2000
1000
5.0
percentage at each age
Decumulators:Accumulators 3.4 to 7.6 per 10
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10
2031
0
2026
2.5
2021
0.0
2016
2.5
2011
5.0
2006
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Buller District
What might make a real population policy?
• Support ALL parents – parenting work is work
– Child Care availability is critical for parents to do other
work (the reproduction of the species is no longer a given)
– Children of Sole Parents are very much our future
– Māori children = 25-33% future workforce
• EXPLICITLY value ALL young people – our last large
cohort (the recent blip) is already born
• Ensure ALL young New Zealanders have some form
of training and are nurtured into a job
– Subsidise / Write-Off Student Loans - OUR future
depends on their investment
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What might make a real population policy? cont.
• Ensure that ALL who want to work, can do so
– Age-Management Planning seriously overdue
– Institute ‘Work-Ability’ frameworks
• Don’t see regional population decline as a ‘personal
trouble’ for the particular council
– National (and global) issues need collective responses
– Auckland’s gains come at the expense of ‘The Rest’
• Encourage more even population distribution
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• Thankyou
•
•
©NIDEA
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[email protected]
www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea