Demography of New Zealand’s Dairy Farming Industry 1996-2006
Natalie Jackson
Professor of Demography, Director,
National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis (NIDEA)
and ex-farmer
Presentation to PANZ Bienniel
Conference, Wellington
July 27-28, 2013
©NIDEA
1
Surprise #1
• An ageing industry (like all), but not as
old or ageing as fast as many think:
• Dairy industry only fractionally older
than total NZ employed population
• Dairy industry ageing more slowly
• But - older farmers not staying on
• Increased presence of younger cohorts
©NIDEA
2
Is it all gloom and
doom?!!
Dairy Farming by Age 1996-2006 (Number)
40,000
Number at each age
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1996
2001
Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Database
©NIDEA
3
2005
65+
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
NZ’s 16th largest industry (of 157 at
3-digit level)
Dairy Farming 1996 and 2006 (-5.0%)
1996 (35,289)
Male
65+
60-64
55-59
2006 (33,501)
Female
SelfEmployed,
Without
Employees
65+
60-64
55-59
Employer
50-54
45-49
40-44
50-54
45-49
Paid
Employee
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
35-39
Unpaid
Family
Worker
30-34
25-29
NS/NEI
13
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
percentage at each age
20-24
9
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
percentage at each age
55+ years 18.5%
55+ years 14.1%
©NIDEA
Female
Male
4
10.0
NZ Total Employed (all industries) (+21.8%)
1996 (N=1.63m)
Male
65+
60-64
55-59
2006 (N=1.98m)
Female
SelfEmployed,
Without
Employees
65+
60-64
55-59
Employer
50-54
45-49
40-44
50-54
45-49
Paid
Employee
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
35-39
Unpaid
Family
Worker
30-34
25-29
NS/NEI
16
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
percentage at each age
20-24
9
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
percentage at each age
55+ years 18.4%
55+ years 11.5%
©NIDEA
Female
Male
5
10.0
NZ’s 10th largest industry (of 157)
Grain, Sheep and Beef Farmers (-6.5%)
1996 (N=41,298)
Male
65+
60-64
55-59
2006 (N=38,684)
Female
SelfEmployed,
Without
Employees
60-64
Employer
55-59
65+
50-54
45-49
40-44
50-54
45-49
Paid
Employee
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
35-39
Unpaid
Family
Worker
30-34
25-29
NS/NEI
5
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
5.0
percentage at each age
20-24
2
15-19
10.0
5.0
0.0
percentage at each age
55+ years 36.5%
55+ years 25.1%
©NIDEA
Female
Male
6
5.0
Dairy Farmers not as old/ageing as fast as perceived
Average Age 1996
(Years)
2006
Dairy
38.8 yrs
Farming
Grain, Sheep 44.0 yrs
Beef
Total NZ
38.2 yrs
Workforce
40.9 yrs
Change
1996-2006
(%)
5.3%
47.8 yrs
8.8 %
41.1 yrs
7.5%
©NIDEA
7
Numerical and Structural Ageing 1996-2006 (%)
119
120
Percentage Change
100
81
80
40
Numerical Ageing
(increase N 65+)
54
60
36
43
44
Structural Ageing
(increase % 65+)
20
0
Dairy Industry
©NIDEA
Grain, Sheep,
Beef
8
Total Industry
Older farmers are leaving the industry
Change by Birth Cohort – Dairy Industry
Number
Birth Cohort
6000
1987-1991
5000
1982-1986
1977-1981
4000
1972-1976
3000
1967-1971
2000
1962-1966
1000
1957-1961
1952-1956
Age Group
©NIDEA
9
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
0
1947-1951
1942-1946
1937-1941
older ‘all employed’ less likely to
leave
Change by Birth Cohort – Total NZ Industry
Number
Birth Cohort
300000
1987-1991
250000
1982-1986
1977-1981
200000
1972-1976
150000
1967-1971
100000
1962-1966
50000
1957-1961
1952-1956
Age Group
©NIDEA
10
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
0
1947-1951
1942-1946
1937-1941
Older grain, sheep beef farmers
having mixed thoughts..
Change by Birth Cohort – Grain, Sheep, Beef
Number
Birth Cohort
6000
1987-1991
5000
1982-1986
1977-1981
4000
1972-1976
3000
1967-1971
2000
1962-1966
1000
1957-1961
1952-1956
Age Group
©NIDEA
11
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
0
1947-1951
1942-1946
1937-1941
Summary - Change in cohort size 1996-2006 (%)
Cohort Year Dairy
of Birth/age Farmers
2006
1972-76**
21.5
Grain,
Total
Sheep, Beef Industry
18.5
13.6
(30-34)
1957-61*
(45-49)
-23.4
-8.7
13.4
1947-51*
(55-59)
-30.3
-7.1
-7.9
1942-46*
(60-64)
-38.2
-11.8
-22.5
©NIDEA
12
Change in cohort size 1996-2006 (%): younger cohorts
Cohort Year Dairy
of Birth/age Farmers
2006
Grain,
Total
Sheep, Beef Industry
1972-76**
(30-34)
21.5
18.5
13.6
1967-71
(35-99)
11.5
22.5
19.3
1962-66
(40-44)
-12.2
-2.2
20.9
©NIDEA
13
Number
Dairy Farming - Employment Status – 1996-2006
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1996
2001
2006
Self
Employer
Employed,
no
employee/s
©NIDEA
Paid
Employees
14
Unpaid
Family
Worker
NS/NEI
Dairy Farmers by Employment Status (av. Age)
Average Age 1996
(Years)
2006
Employers
44.5 yrs
47.0 yrs
Change
1996-2006
(%)
5.6%
Self-Employ. 41.9 yrs
46.2 yrs
10.1 %
Employees
29.8 yrs
33.6 yrs
12.9%
All Dairy
Farmers
38.8 yrs
40.9 yrs
5.3%
©NIDEA
15
Dairy Industry
Change by Birth Cohort – Employers
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1987-1991
1982-1986
1977-1981
1972-1976
1967-1971
1962-1966
1957-1961
Age Group
©NIDEA
16
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
1952-1956
15-19
Number
Birth Cohort
1947-1951
1942-1946
1937-1941
Dairy Industry
Change by Birth Cohort – Self Employed, No Employees***
Birth Cohort
2500
1987-1991
1982-1986
2000
Number
1977-1981
1500
1972-1976
1967-1971
1000
1962-1966
500
1957-1961
1952-1956
Age Group
©NIDEA
17
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
0
1947-1951
1942-1946
1937-1941
Dairy Industry
Change by Birth Cohort – Paid Employees
Number
Birth Cohort
3000
1987-1991
2500
1982-1986
1977-1981
2000
1972-1976
1500
1967-1971
1000
1962-1966
500
1957-1961
1952-1956
Age Group
©NIDEA
18
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
0
1947-1951
1942-1946
1937-1941
In sum - several surprises
• NZ’s dairy industry not ageing as fast as total NZ
industry (or Grain, Sheep, Beef farming industry)
• Older dairy farmers are increasingly getting out
• Ageing of industry not caused by older farmers
‘staying at their posts’!
• Significant rejuvenation of the industry by younger
cohorts of employers
o Employing increasingly older employees
• NZ dairy industry no longer the land of ‘selfemployed without employees’
©NIDEA
19
• Thankyou
•
•
©NIDEA
20
[email protected]
www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea