Busting the ‘Grow For It’ Myth
Natalie Jackson
Professor of Demography, Director,
National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis (NIDEA)
Presentation to the Biennial
Population Association of New
Zealand Conference, Wellington, NZ
June 2013
©NIDEA
1
NZIER’s ‘Grow for it’ Report
• Acknowlgement
• NZIER Report acknowledges the implausibility of New
Zealand achieving a population of 15 million
throughout
• This has not prevented the media/ensuing debate
focussing on three issues:
• Will the 15 million people be ‘good’ or ‘bad’ for New
Zealand?
• Where will they live?
• What will they ‘look like’?
This discourse is not helpful to NZ
©NIDEA
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Outline
• How to get 15 a population of million
• The inconvenient truth of population ageing
– Ageing-driven growth
• The footprints leading to the end of growth are
everywhere – the path is already trod
– We can see it coming; can track its path
– Critical to start planning for regional decline >>
end of growth
©NIDEA
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NZIER’s suggestion of 15 million by 2061.
If we were to assume:
• Total Fertility Rate 2.1 (remaining constant)
• Life Expectancy 95.0 years by 2061 (Stats NZ highest assumption)
• Annual Net Migration 100,000 (4X Stats NZ Highest; 8X medium)
• age structure of migrants very youthful + migration positive at all ages
• 2061 population would be 10.8 million; 22%
would be 65+ years
• 15 million by 2061 would require over 150,000 net
migration gain per year at replacement level fertility, or
birth rate to return to Baby Boom levels (eg. 3.5 births
per woman) + 100,000 migrants per year
©NIDEA
4
The inconvenient
truth of popualtion
ageing
©NIDEA
5
Migration has minimal long-term effect on population ageing
1. Migrants also grow
old – add to
numerical ageing
2. Today’s migrants
have relatively low
fertility – add to
structural ageing
3. Numbers required
are enormous
4. Competition for
migramts is growing
©NIDEA
6
New Zealand by age in 2061 under different migration scenarios
With same birth rate and life expectancy
Zero Migration
(5.1m, 28.3% 65+
years)
Number (millions)
7.0
6.0
5.0
Medium (6m,
25.8% 65+ years)
4.0
3.0
2.0
V High Migration
(7m, 24.5% 65+
years)
1.0
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
0.0
Stats NZ: TFR 1.9 by 2031; Life Expectancy 88.1 (M), 90.5 (F) in 2061
©NIDEA
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The Demographic Transition
Time for pro-growth lobby to understand the context of growth
©NIDEA
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Projected Global Growth – Medium Variant
12,000,000
Number
10,000,000
8,000,000
Stage 3
6,000,000
4,000,000
Stage 3
2,000,000
World
Less Developed Countries
United Nations, World Population Prospects 2010 Revision
©NIDEA
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More Developed Countries
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
0
ALL future growth at 65+ years
Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth
MDCs (158)
65+ Years
Medium Series
All other age
groups
combined
2011-2021
(2.9%)
25%
-1.3%
2011-2031
(4.6%)
49%
(+98 million)
-3.9%
(-41million)
US Census Bureau International Database: More Developed Countries by age and sex
©NIDEA
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2/3 of New Zealand’s growth 2011-2031
expected to be at 65+ years
New Zealand is merely ‘lagging the field’
Total NZ
65+ Years
Series 5
All other age
groups
combined
2011-2021
(8.9%)
40.3%
4.1%
2011-2031
(17.9%)
88.5%
7.1%
Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061
©NIDEA
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This is what it looks like by age
120
New Zealand: Projected change by age (%)
Percentage Change
100
2011-2021 (8.9%)
80
2011-2031 (17.9%)
60
40
20
0
Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012
Update)
12
©NIDEA
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-20
Older people do not have [many] children
©NIDEA
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Contribution to growth by age will now change dramatically
1996-2011
2011-2031
Total NZ
Total NZ
23.3
34.2
0-64 years
65+ years
65.8
76.7
©NIDEA
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0-64 years
65+ years
Percentage of all growth
Add & stir: NZ’s future growth will be shared most unevenly
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Percentage share of growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012
update)
15
©NIDEA
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
There is a new set of dynamics to be understood
Old form of population
decline
Kapiti Coast 2012
(1996 Unshaded)
• Net migration loss, typically
20-39 years > natural
increase
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
New form of decline
Net migration loss 20-39 yrs
+
Fertility Decline
+
Net migration gain at older
ages
+
Male
6.0
Natural Decline
4.0
Female
2.0
0.0
2.0
percentage at each age
65+ yrs: 21.2% … 25.4%
©NIDEA
4.0
16
6.0
Ony 11 TA’s will not have all
growth at 65+ years
Subnationally- all dark
red TA’s have more than
100 per cent of ‘growth’
at 65+ years; all are
projected to experience
overall decline at 0-64
years
• 1996-2011 32
TAs (48%)
• 2011-2031 56
TAs (84%)
©NIDEA
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The ‘winners’
• 2 = 95+% of growth at 65+
• Christchurch; Whangarei
• 3 = 60-63% growth at 65+
• Waikato (District); Palmerston North; Waimakiriri
• 3 = 44-46% growth at 65+
• Wellington; Selwyn; Tauranga
• 3 = 36-37% growth at 65+
• Auckland; Hamilton; Queenstown
©NIDEA
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Subnational decline
already a ‘big’ issue
Blue TA’s are in
[permament] decline =
1/3 NZ’s TA’s
This matters to those
who own houses,
businesses, employ
people, have to plan for
services.
It matters to local
councils; It matters to
rate-payers
Ultimately it matters to
the whole country
©NIDEA
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We can track the crossing of thresholds
More elderly than children (% NZ Territorial Authority Areas)
100
90 Observed / ERP
80
76.1
70
Percentage
91.0
Projected
61.2
60
50
40.3
40
30
20
16.4
10
0
3.0
4.5
2001
2006
0.0
1996
2011
2016
2021
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)
©NIDEA
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2026
2031
The A-B-C of population ageing/ZPG
• Accept - Population ageing/the end of growth
is coming to a region near you
– Big/small discourse not helpful, more migrants will
not resolve population ageing
• Buffer – respond to the demography, you won’t be
able to change it by much (UN 2000)
– Range of possible policy options will increasingly narrow (Matanle and
Rausch 2011): your town or mine?
• Collaborate/Conserve – put our efforts into
proactively managing population ageing and the end
of population growth >> many opportunities
– Celebrate: Capital deepening cf. Capital widening
©NIDEA
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• Thankyou
• Requests for data
welcome
•
•
©NIDEA
22
[email protected]
www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea