NORCACE seminar
11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand
Are better educated migrants returning?
Evidence from multi‐dimensional
education data
Tiit Tammaru, Enel Pungas, Ott Toomet
University of Tarty
Department of Geography
This study was financially supported by
European Social Fund
Estonian Science Foundation
Motivation
 Increased East-West migration in Europe
 Issues related to „brain-drain“ and „brain
gain“ in the focus of debates
 Studies mainly based on level of education
Presentation outline
 Literature review on education and return
migration
 Background of the research population
 Main trends of Estonian-Finland migration
 Characteristics of Estonian migrants in Finland
 Intentions of return migration by education
 Discussion
Literature review:
Education and return migration
Relationship between the level of education
and return migration
 Less educated return
(DaVanzo and Morrison 1981; Reyes 1997; Massey & Espinoza 1997;
Curran & Rivero-Fuentes 2003)
 Interpretation: Return migration is a correction
of a failed move to a foreign country
Relationship between the level of education
and return migration
 Better educated return
(Reicher 2001; Constant & Massey 2003; King and Newbold 2008; Bijwaard 2010)
 Interpretations:
 Better educated are spatially more mobile
 They are valued also at country of origin
especially when studyed abroad
 Correction of the failed move to a foreign country
Other education dimensions highlighted
in literature
 Studies abroad
(Borjas and Bratsberg 1996; Bijwaard 2010; Dustmann and Glitz 2011)
 Over-education
(Dustmann et al 2007; Kahanec 2009; Drinkwater et al 2009; Trevena 2011)
Aim of the study
To study the associations between intentions
of return migration and education
Dimensions of education to be studied:
 level of education (3 levels)
 type of education (general/vocational)
 education country (origin/destination)
 perceived over-education (yes/no)
Background:
Estonia-Finland migration
Case study countries
 Estonia (EE) and Finland (FI)
 Neighbouring countries
 EE part of the Soviet Union 1944–1991
 EE part of European Union since 2004
and eurozone since 2011
 Similar languages but differences in wealth
 No EE diaspora in FI up until 1991
Estonian migration with Finland, 1991-2010
Source: Statistics Finland
Estonian migration with Finland, 1991–2010
Immigration mainly implies return migration
Immigration ca ¼ of emigration
Source: Statistics Finland
Size of Estonian of Estonian diaspora in Finland,
1991–2010
Before 1991, almost no EE diaspora in FI
In 2011, largest EE diaspora in FI
In 2011, EE larges immigrant group in FI
Source: Statistics Finland
Research data
Survey among EE migrants in FI
 Spring 2009
 1000 immigrant of EE origin living in FI
 Sample drawn from the FI Population
Register
 Telephone interviews (30 min) conducted
from EE
 Survey company Turu-uuringute AS
Results
Emigration motive
Education of EE migrants in FI
Share, %
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
23
50
26
General
Vocational
63
37
Overeducated
Matched
Undereducated
33
62
5
Studied in FI
Not studied in FI
38
62
Studied in FI by age at migration
Changes in the labour market position of
EE migrants in FI
Last in EE First in FI Last in FI
Manager, senior specialist
Specialist
Clerk
Skilled worker
Unskilled worker
Not working
Total
EE
16
8
15
16
8
8
9
8
17
17
17
11
26
29
29
22
7
25
7
7
26
13
23
36
100
100
100
100
Intends to return from FI to EE
Yes
Otherwise
Frequency
Percent
237
763
24
76
Intention to return EE by
age at migration
Intention to return EE by
years lived in FI
Results of the logistic regression, odds ratios
(intends to return=1, otherwise=0)
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Level of
education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
1.15
1
0.96
1.49
1
1.00
1.51
1
1.03
Type of
education
General
Vocational
1
1.37 *
1
1.41 *
1
1.43 *
Country of
education
Estonia
Finland
1
0.57 ***
1
1.10
1
1.11
1.80 ***
1
1.65 **
1
1.62 **
1
Overeducation Yes
No
Regression continued …
Age at
migration
< 20
20-54
> 55
0.34 ***
1
2.80 ***
0.35 ***
1
2.85 ***
Years in
Finland
0-4
5-9
10-14
> 15
1
0.88
0.66
0.73
1
0.89
0.72
0.81
Ethnicity
Estonian
Minority
1
0.29 ***
1
0.31 ***
Partner
country
Estonia
Finland
1
0.42 ***
1
0.43 ***
Working
Yes
No
1
0.53 ***
1
0.55 ***
Emigration
motive
Income
Other
1.99 **
1
Robustness checks
 Comparability problems with odds ratios
across models, groups and samples
(Mood 2010)
 Linear Probability Models were estimated
 Similar results were obtained
Discussion of the results
Discussion of the results
 Return migration intentions by education
 no differences by level of education
 people with vocational education wish somewhat
more likely to return – education too specific?
 FI education relates to higher return intention up
until we control for age at migration
 Over-education elevates intentions to return – but
U-shape change in the labour market position
Discussion of the results
 Other important differences in return intentions
 EE ethnic minorities want to stay in FI, although
Estonians are better integrated in FI
 Migrants for better income have elevated return
migration intentions
 People out of labour force wish to stay in FI
NORCACE seminar
11-13 April 2012, University of Waikato, New Zealand
Thank you!
[email protected]
This study was financially supported by
European Social Fund
Estonian Science Foundation