BEFORE THE
POSTAL RATE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20268-0001
RECEIVE!)
Ocr IO
Poc-T:I E#aTZ cauf. ,s;i(itJ
OFrICE ci’1lit:
S:cRtiA,xY
I
POSTAL RATE AND FEE CHANGES, 1997
II lZPii’Q7
Docket No. R97-1
I
NOTICE OF THE UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE
OF REVISIONS TO THE TESTIMONY OF
DR. GEORGE TOLLEY (USPS-T-6)
(October 9, 1997)
In accordance
testimony
with Presiding Officer’s Ruling No. R97-l/27,
of Dr. George Tolley, USPS-T-6,
are appended
revised pages of the
hereto as .Attachment A.
These pages reflect revisions arising from three sources:
1) The error acknowledged in Dr. Tolley’s response to item 10.b of POIR No. 1,
filed August 18, made in summing GFY 1999 figures presented in Exhibit USPS-GA.
The Postal Service makes no use of the GFY 1999 forecast in this ciase, as the test
year is 1998.
2) Errors, also acknowledged in response to item 10 of POIR No. 1, in Dr.
Musgrave’s forecasts, which are reproduced for convenience in some of Dr. Tolley’s
tables.
3) Errors made in incorporating the revenue loss from the proposed prebarcode
discount into the after-rates FWI for Bound Printed Matter, Library Rate, and Special
Rate. This situation was discussed with regard to Bound Printed Malter in response
to item 10.b of POlR No. 3, filed September 22, and the same error in the same
formula affected Library and Special Rate as well. For each subclass, the effect of
the error on the forecast was quite small.
Attachment
A contains
fully the correction
revised pages of text, tables, and exhibits necessary
of these errors.
It is our intention to substitute
those filed originally when Dr. Tolley adopts his testimony
A also contains one revised workpaper
There is one additional
these pages for
on the stand.
(Attachment
page.)
source of error in Dr. Tolley’s forecast which is not
reflected in the revisions presented
misapportioned
to reflect
in Attachment
volume between the quarters.
A. The quarterly
forecasts
Details on this are presented
have
in
-
Attachment
B. Correction
the test year forecasts
2 -
of this error causes what are essentially
for every subclass,
but, of course, only the forecasts
(The quarterly changes
trivial changes
are less trivial,
for the entire year are used in this proceeding.)
The Postal Service does not believe that discrepancies
of this magnkude
filing revised pages for each of the myriad of instances
in which the text contains
forecast number that would change only slightly.
contain a supplemental
in
Attachment
B, however,
warrant
a
does
version of the summary table from the testim’ony (Table I),
and Exhibit USPS-GA, which clearly show for each subclass what the corrected
figures would be (as well as the magnitude
forecast.)
The forecasting
as USPS-LR-H-295,
subclasses
forecasted
of the correction
model from which these figures are derived is being filed
which, as of now, represents
by Dr. Tolley.
of all the errors discussed
relative to the original
the best forecastin’g
(This library reference
also contains corrections
above and reflected in Attachment
Respectfully
model for the
A.)
submitted,
UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE
By its attorneys:
Daniel J. Foucheaux, Jr.
Chief Counsel, Ratemaking
6-
I3 (
Eric P. Koetting
475 L’Enfant Plaza West, SW.
Washington, D.C. 20260-I 137
(202) 268-2992; Fax -5402
October 9. 1997
.I &
ATTACHMENT A
Attachment
A
The following errata were identified for USPS-T-6:
Pages 5-6 (Table 1)
Page 62 *
(fine 20, the number ‘54,519.485’ becomes ‘54,517.802’)
Pages 127-128 *
(on p. 127, II. 21-22, the sentence starting ‘The after-rates
moves to p. 128, II. Q-IO)
Page 163, line 15, the number ‘561.718’ becomes ‘562.598
Page 167, line 9, the number ‘200.51 I’ becomes ‘200.807
Page 172, line 6, the number ‘28.709’ becomes ‘28.71 I’
forecast,
Fxhibit USPS-GA
Pages l-3,6-8,
Workpaper
10 (pp. 4 & 9 are enclosed as well for completeness)
1
Page 53 (Table l-35)
l
-
Errata marked with an asterisk do not relate to any corrections in l:he forecast, but
instead correct typographical or editorial errors made in the preparation of the
testimony.
The changes to “Adjusted After-Rates” in Table 1 for Insurance
due to errata from rate design witnesses.
and Certified are
Revised
10/g/97
5
1
2
3
4
5
6
87
9
10
11
::
14
2
17
::
s:
;s
24
;6"
z'8
29
30
z:
33
;:
36
z78
39
40
41.
42
43
44
45
46
47
:i
TABLE 1
VOLUME PROJECTIONS
(Million Pieces)
Test
Refore-Rates
IlI!siba
After-Rates
Adiusted
After-Rates
Cateaorv of Mail or Setvice
Pase Year
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters & Flats
(Single-piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single-piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
92,899.506
53,738.949
7,846.568
31,313.989
5,217.264
570.329
4j346.935
2,437.427
710.712
1,498.796
98,116.770
95,901.297
54,394.309
5,369.390
36,137.599
5,693.117
594.894
5,098.223
2,546.540
643.732
1,907.951
101,594.414
991.280
58.719
5.558
1,131.663
64.832
4.757
1,095.437
63.857
4.757
910.993
2,182.805
58.647
7,013.337
10,165.782
911.204
2,186.677
51.194
7,172.571
10,321.646
901.070
2,161.077
47.452
7.147.574
10,257.973
901.870
2,161.077
47.452
7,147.574
10.257.973
158.735
165.695
60,923.517
66,783.249
30,924.312
34,359.008
10,247.842
8,904.147
20,676.469
25,454.861
32,424.240
29,999.206
28,790.811
30,301.017
2.123.223
1.208.395
13,255.224
12,718.009
IO. 123.229
9,711.959
4,086.150
5,059.538
6,037.079
4,652.422
3,131.995
3,006.050
2,775.082
2,831.120
356.913
174.930
80,204.168
73,800.261
(Continued on next page)
161.574
66,313.735
37,627.554
9,184.077
28,442638
28,686.181
26,626.5,19
2,059.662
13,122.251
10,550.968
3,658.517
6,892.451
2,571.283
2,216.626
354.654
79,597.559
o.ooo4
66,313.736
37,627.555
Priority Mail’
Express Mail’
Mailgrams
PERIODICALS
Within County
Nonprofit
Classroom
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICALS
STANDARD A MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
95,446.568
95,550.984
54,413.,387
54,517.8022
4,855.407
4,855.407
36,177.775
36b177.775
5,523.1146
5,523.046
583.005
583.005
4,940.041
4,940.041
2.476.656
2,476.656
667.024
667.024
1,796.361
1,796.361
100,969.614 101,074.030
1,152.4133
62.7213
4.757
28,686.181
13,122.251
10,550.968
2,571.283
79,435.987
Revised
10,/g/97
6
TABLE 1
(Continued)
VOLUME PROJECTIONS
(Million Pieces)
:
3
4
fz
7
&teaorv
:
10
11
12
of Mail or Service
Base Year
Adiusted
Test Year
Before-Rates
er-rates
STANDARD B MAIL
Parcel Post
(Inter-BMC)
(I&a-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
220.034
64.941
48.009
107.085
515.988
194.157
28.922
959.101
241.598
55.256
49.406
136.937
567.896
200.562
30.245
1,040.302
231.879
50.375
43.566
137.938
562.598
200.807
28.711
1,022.817
;:
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
347.651
50.388
297.820
56.390
297.820
56.390
297.820
56.390
;:
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL 184,495.511
194,715.992
193,367.404
193,389.076
;z
26
27
26
29
30
31
32
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
Insurance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERV.
16.195
31.438
304.153
3.936
236.661
592.383
14.288
30.600
293.118
3.886
236.570
578.463
::
15
:;
234.6605
574.742=
200.511
28.728’
1,038.641
:“9
z:
35
:;
::
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
18.149
30.069
283.138
4.611
214.709
550.843
14.288
31.026’
289.6538
3.886
236.570
’ Volume projections before adjustment for Priority Mail and Express Mail are taken from
Dr. Gerald Musgrave’s revised testimony (USPS-T-8) and adjusted for the MC96-3
decision as explained in Library Reference H-173 and Library Reference H-295.
*An explanation of the adjustment to First-Class single-piece is presented by witness
Fronk (USPS-T-32).
’ An explanation of the adjustment to Priority and Express mail is presented by witness
Sharkey (USPS-T-33), but does not reflect post-tiling errata of Dr. Musgrave.
’ An explanation of the adjustment to Standard single-piece is present’ed by witness
Moeller (USPS-T-36).
‘An explanation of the adjustment to parcel post is presented by witness Mayes (USPST-37).
6 An explanation of the adjustment to bound printed matter and library rate is presented
by witness Adra (USPS-T-38) but does not reflect my post-filing errata.
’ An explanation of the adjustment to insurance is presented by witness Plunkett (USPST-40).
a An explanation of the adjustment to certified mail is presented by witness Needham
(USPS-T-39).
Revised
10/g/97
62
In the before-rates
1
projection, real postal prices are based on the assumption that the
2
present rate schedule for First-Class
3
the result that the real price declines in line with the Data Resources,
4
of the increase in the general price level as measured by the Department
5
price index of personal consumption
letters remains in effect through the Test Year, with
7
rate schedule
proposed
8
effect at the beginning
9
quarter of Postal Year 1998.
10
Details of the projection
methodology
is as:sumed to go into
are given in the Technical
12
projections.
projection
of total single-piece
letter volume
projection
16
million pieces,
17
rates volume because the proposed decline in the discount for presorted
18
letters causes some of this mail to shift to single-piece
32)
volume of single-piece
adjustments
leading
volume
to a final after-rates
b.
Total Workshared
million pieces.
The after-rates
letters is greater than the before-
letters.
are made by witness Fronk (USPS-T-
projection
First-Class
nonautomated
of 54,517.802
million
23
letters, equal to the sum of the volumes of presorted nonautomated
24
mentioned
below, is projected
pieces.
Letters
Assuming present postage rates are continued, the volume of workshared
immediately
of the
by the Postal Service in this ca!se is 54,413,387
To the above volume, additional
21
22
The after-rates
to this
in the Test Year,
15
based on the rates proposed
is 54,394.309
enabling replication
obtained
20
the methodology,
Appendix
14
19
by applying
except that the
of the Test Year, on October 1, 1997, which falls during the first
testimony and in Workpaper 2 which gives sample calculations
The before-rates
projection,
by the Postal Service in this proceeding
11
13
of Commerce
expenditures.
The after-rates projection is the same as the before-rates
6
Inc. (DRI) projection
to be 41,506.989
First-Class
and automated
letters
million pieces in the Test
Revised
IO/?/97
127
1
mentions
an important
2
targeting
3
USPS which goes to every address and individual.”
4
delivery has had a small negative effect on the volume of Standard
however.
“With direct marketers
it is going to be difficult for alternate
. ..
III.
5
6
caveat,
delivery companies’to
of non-econometric
c:ompete with the
regular mail.
Period
information
has noted both positive and
7
negative influenced on Standard A regular mail volume.
8
and negative influences
9
factors being responsible for a 0.12 percent decline in Standard regular mail volume.
10
11
Table 12 shows that the positive
have been roughly offsetting over the past five years, with other
This
is equivalent to an annual decline of only 0.02 percent per year.
The small mechanical
net trend does not appear to be reflective of a persistent
12
decline in Standard regular mail volume.
13
and negative forecast errors and the SPLY differences
14
indication of a downward
15
factor is included in the volume forecasts of this subclass.
4.
16
Volume
a.
17
18
more
All in all, it appears that alternative
Net Trend for the Forecast
The above discussion
going toward
The forecast error analysis shows both positive
in forecast errors offer no obvious
trend in Standard regular mail volume.
As a result, no net trend
Forecast
Total Volume
Projecting the influence of the factors that have been discussed
19
34,359.008
million pieces of noncarrier-route
20
present postal rates. At the rates proposed
21
projection
22
the proposed
23
causing mail to shift from the ECR to the Regular subclass.
is 37,627.554
million pieces.
pricing of automation
gives a forecast of
third bulk regular mail in 1:he Test Year, at
by the Postal Service in this’ proceeding,
The increase in the after-rates
the
volume is due to
5-digit regular letters less than ECR basic letters,
Revised
10/g/97
128
1
2
b.
Standard
Forecasts
of Nonautomated
regular nonautomated
Mail
mail consists of the letter and norlletter categories
3
of Basic and Presort regular mail. Assuming
4
forecasted Test Year volume of nonautomated
5
pieces. At rates proposed by the Posta Service, the projected volume in the Test Year is
6
9,184.917
Standard
regular mail is 8,904.147
million
million pieces.
7
8
no change in current rates, the before-rates
C.
Forecasts
The total forecasted
of Automated
Mail
Test Year volume of the automation
categories
9
regular mail is 25,454.861
million pieces in the before-rates
10
forecast, at rates proposed
by the Postal Service, is 28,442.638
of Standard A
scenario.
The after-rates
million pieces.
11
12
D.
1.
13
14
Enhanced
Carrier
Route
Definition
The Standard A enhanced carrier route subclass was created as part of the MC951
15
classification
16
previously known as carrier route third-class bulk regular mail. To qualify for the Standard
17
A enhanced
18
pounds) and each piece must be part of a group of 10 or more pieces to one carrier route.
19
To be sent Standard A, each piece must weigh less than one pound.
20
reform.
Standard
A enhanced
carrier route subclass,
Within Standard
enhanced
mail where nonletters
carrier route mail consists
mailings must contain at least 200 pieces (or 50
carrier route, there is a distinction
21
nonletter
22
There are four letter and three nonletter categories
23
four letter categories
24
nonletter categories
25
automation
between
consist of flats, parcels, and irregularly
are: basic, automation,
of enhanced
high density,
are: basic, high density, and saturation.
compatible
of what was
shaped pieces.
carrier route mail. The
and saturaltion.
Automation
and 100 percent delivery point barcoded.
letter and
The three
letters must be
Revised
10/g/97
163
.. .
1
Ill.
Net Trend for Forecast
2
While the other factors have had the effect of raising bound printed matter by an
3
average of 0.33 percent per year, review of the forecast error analysis, shows that the
4
influence
5
Particularly
6
presented for this subclass in the Technical Appendix.
7
be indicative
8
steadily decreasing
9
toward no net trend. Based on the absence of a net trend in recent quarters, no net trend
10
factors
revealing is the four-quarter
of a trend.
has not been stable over this time period.
average of SPLY differences
Instead, the four-quarter
pattern, suggesting
of forecast errors
A constant SPLY difference would
average
SPLY differences
show a
a move from a relatively large positive net trend
is included in the forecasts of bound printed matter.
11
12
of the non-econometric
4.
Projecting
Volume
Forecast
the influence of the above factors gives a of 567.896
rnillion pieces of
13
Standard Bound printed mail for the Test Year beginning October 1, 1997, if present postal
14
rates are continued
15
Service are adopted, the forecast is 562.598 million pieces (after-rates
(before-rates
forecast).
If the rates recommende’d
by the Postal
forecast).
16
17
18
19
D.
Standard
1.
6 Special
Rate Mail
Definition
Standard B special rate mail includes books, literary manuscripts,
compact discs and
20
cassette tapes, small films, and educational
21
tables. Book clubs, music clubs, and book publishers account for 95 percent of the special
22
rate mail volume.
23
Presort rates are available.
24
materials such as charts and mathematical
Special rate mail is not zoned, but postage varies by weight.
Two
Revised
10/g/97
167
.. .
1
2
Net Trend for Forecast
Ill.
The five-year net trend for special rate mail is a small -0.20 percent.
3
forecast error analysis indicates that special rate volume has recovered
4
most recent postal year, suggesting
5
Consequently,
6
4.
7
somewhat
in the
that any negative influences on volume are waning.
no net trend is used in the forecast for Standard
Volume
Review of the
B special rate mail.
Forecast
The forecast is 200.562 million pieces of special rate mail for the Test Year if present
8
postal rates are continued (before-rates
forecast).
If the rates recommencled
9
Service are adopted, the forecast is 200.807 million pieces (after-rates
by the Postal
forecast).
10
11
E.
Standard
13
Rate
Definition
1.
12
B Library
Schools, colleges, universities, public libraries, museums, herbariums,
14
organizations
15
B library rate.
16
categories
17
address or return address be that of an eligible institution and that the label Library Rate
18
appear conspicuously
19
are eligible to send Standard
and nonprofit
No permit is required
as would be the case for other preferred
such as second- and Standard
A’common’use
B mail at a preferred rate known as Standard
A nonprofit mail.
It is required
rate
only that the
on both sides of the package.
of library rate is the sending of books from publishers and distributors
20
to schools, colleges, universities, and public libraries. This use accounts for 23 percent of
21
library rate mail pieces according to the Preferred Rate Study. Another common use is for
22
inter-library
23
volume.
24
25
loan materials.
Thirty-two
Overall, libraries send 21 percent of the total library rate
percent of the library rate is by educational
organizations.
As in the case of special rate, rates are based on weight but not distance.
increases mandated for preferred subclasses
Phased
have raised rates for library rate mail.
Revised
10/g/97
172
1
2
4.
Volume
Forecast
The above considerations
lead to a forecast of 30.245 million pieces of Standard B
3
library rate mail for the Test Year, if present
postal rates are continued
(before-rates
4
forecast).
5
otherwise applicable to special rate mail. In view of this situation, the after-rates forecast
6
for library rate mail in the Test Year is 28.711 million pieces.
In the after-rates scenario, most library rate mail is expected to be charged rates
Revised
Exhibit USPS-GA
FIRST-CLASS MAlL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nonprofit
Classroom
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Sulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Gamier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Sulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Ndnautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel post
(Inter-BMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DSMC)
Sound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
,n*urance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
10/g/97
TABLE 1
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997Ql TO 199904
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(Actual)
199701
(Actual,
1997w
21.728.723
12,893.919
1.486.816
7.547.966
1,349.378
159.589
1,189.807
641.280
182.883
385.884
23,b78.099
1997Q3
199704
1997PFY
1997GFY
22.981.736
13,524.103
1.389.282
8.048.374
1.242.492
175.124
1,0*7.3*a
506.498
159.095
401.775
24.204.230
21.098.883
11.895.923
1.340.317
7.882.422
1.195.974
129.712
1.088.282
545.188
143.825
377.251
22.294.838
27.883.291
18.012.017
1.645.165
10.028.109
1.851.307
167.157
1.484.150
753.490
198.754
533.908
29.334598
93.472.415
54.125.962
5.861.559
33.484.893
5.439.149
'631.583
4,807,588
2.446.434
682.358
1.898.795
9a.911.564
93.878.849
54340.025
!i,839.898
33.898.925
8.489.433
831.124
4.638.309
:!.454.239
884~918
1.719.154
9!1,348.282
237.394
13.098
1.354
248.239
14.377
1.847
249.878
14.380
1.318
317.773
16,672
1.302
I ,051.283
80.524
5,819
1.080.059
60.880
5.771
224.175
537.403
13.350
1.851.532
2.428.480
218.211
512.189
16~858
1.643.663
2.389.101
210.798
524.828
15.214
1.882.782
2.433.800
262.358
818.833
15.548
2.134.778
3.049.516
933.542
2.191.232
80.987
7.112.935
10.298.677
934.013
2.197.551
81.308
7.132.880
10.325.752
182.804
62.824.703
31.984398
8.371.908
43.040
15.990.123
7.910.290
2.199.919
5710.370
8.079.833
7.848.584
433.250
3.838.489
2.853.017
1.199.459
1.453.550
983.452
894.831
88.821
19.889.831
33.966
13.905.081
7.134.231
1.779.793
5.354.438
6.770.850
8.288.545
482.305
2.835.823
2.289.181
984.575
I ,284.607
566.442
480.332
88.109
18,774.870
38.600
14,190.039
7.265.570
1.888.881
5.376.889
8.924~489
8.470.838
453.831
2.9oa.io4
2.218.993
923.361
1.295.832
889.111
810.723
78.388
17.138.943
48.998
18.739.480
9.854307
2.505.515
7.148.793
9.oa5.153
8.490.234
594.919
3.812.474
2.758.112
1.131.854
1.824.258
858.381
750.937
97.424
22.398.932
30.880.305
28,896.ooo
1.964.305
12.992.889
9,897,303
4.239.249
5,858.055
3.095.385
2.744624
350.742
75,980.176
183.121
63.331.758
32.241.467
6.415.726
23.825.739
31.090.2a9
29.092.773
1.997.518
13.038.802
9.954108
4.239.978
5.714.129
3.082.494
2.728.830
353.864
78,531.479
58.902
15.980
11.995
30.947
142.625
52.487
8.947
280.980
57.756
18,592
11.551
29.812
98.493
44.094
5.925
206.268
50.270
13.426
10.720
28.124
108.815
42.814
8.773
208.472
81.240
15.720
12.944
32.575
165.013
53.281
7.488
308.981
228.187
81.899
47.210
119.256
532.748
192.858
27.113
980.882
230.023
81.878
47.858
120.487
538.140
194.731
27.527
988.421
81.350
12.248
87,422
10.238
84.938
13.112
85.814
15.319
339.524
50.915
339.088
51.816
55.528.908
187.679.164
188.709.349
17.296
31.081
289.691
4.351
218.711
17.322
31.286
291.380
4.348
218.171
559~218
562.588
45.780.593
43,934.390
4.146
8.176
71,429
1.039
47,877
3.726
8.098
80.277
1.019
44.707
132.708
117.675
42.435.273
4.131
6.135
72.819
0.998
52.288
5.293
a.872
85.185
1~297
71.861
172.288
Revised
10/g/97
Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 1 (continued)
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997Ql TO 1999a4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
Before-Rates
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters & Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
NO”prOfi~
Classroom
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Sulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Sulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel Post
(Inter-BMC)
(I”td3MC)
(DBMC)
Sound Ptinted Matier
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD 6
Postal Penany
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
lns”rance
Certified
Colled-on-Deliver/
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
199aa1
1996a2
199aa3
199824
1996Pp1
199BGFY
22.096.419
12.800.156
1.270.782
6.025.479
1.397.479
145.604
1.251.675
631.917
163.143
456.816
23.493.697
23.383.563
13.419.129
1.320.749
6,643.704
1.260.853
143.632
1.137.221
570.719
145.642
420.859
24,664.435
21.629.947
11.943.764
1.244.682
8.441.501
1.254.132
132.535
1.121.597
559.594
141.123
420.860
22.884.079
26.366.645
16.056.060
1.533.421
10.777.145
1.725.663
169.618
1.555.846
771.669
192.276
591,881
30,094306
95.478,594
54221.131
5.369.634
35.887.829
5.658.127
591,589
5066.536
2.533.919
642.163
1.890.436
101.136.720
95.901.297
54.394,309
5J69.390
36.137.599
5393.117
594,894
5.096.223
2.546.540
E,43.732
1,5’07.951
101.594.414
262.717
13.665
1.019
260,066
15.167
1.392
265.107
15:471
1.189
336.445
19.932
1.159
1,124.355
64.435
4.759
1.131.663
64.632
4.757
209.871
528.407
14.024
1826.703
2.379.066
204.750
511.826
12.301
1.645.492
2.374.366
210.741
525.630
12.869
1.710.902
2.460.362
282.939
613.761
12.165
2.163.246
3.072.112
908.301
2.179.905
51.379
7.146.343
10.285.928
911~204
2.186.677
51.194
7.172.571
10.321.646
41.403
17.284.593
6.676.900
2,251.191
6.427.709
8,605.693
8.042.170
563.523
3.561.665
2.734206
1.114.176
1.620.030
647.676
751.149
96.529
20.907.880
35.302
14.770.965
7.533.644
1.953.119
5.560.525
7.237.321
6.763.402
473.918
2.948.737
2.261.745
914.786
1.336.960
696.992
617.576
79.416
17.755.004
39.796
14.624.267
7.701.461
1,995.620
5.705661
7.122.766
6,656.366
466.416
2,981.375
2.277.105
919.102
1.356.003
704269
624.003
80.266
17.645.437
46.422
19.479.362
10.205.439
2843.133
7.562.307
9.273.923
6.666.642
607.260
3.672.896
2.605.722
1.121.921
1.683.802
667.174
766.320
98.854
23.200.661
164.923
66.359.186
34.119.464
6.643.062
25,276.402
32.239.722
30,128.582
2.111.140
13.184.892
10.068.779
4.069.985
5.998.795
3.116.113
2.761.049
355.064
79.709.002
165.695
66.783.249
34.359.008
8.904.147
25.454.661
32.424.240
30:301.017
2.123.223
13.255.224
10.123.229
4.096.150
6,037.079
3.131.995
2.715.082
356.913
60.2’34.166
63.612
16.666
13.294
34662
146.652
56.745
6.459
279.468
59.762
14.091
12.339
33.332
113.979
44.064
6.962
224.786
52.515
11.653
10.704
29.957
110.646
42.574
6.953
212.667
64.233
13.666
12.916
37.449
166.161
53.780
7.711
313.666
240.122
55.466
49.253
135.400
561.637
199.182
30.065
1.031.027
2.41.59B
55.256
.49.406
136.937
5137.896
ZOO.562
‘30.245
1,040.302
73.163
14.780
73.276
11.094
75.432
13.993
76.879
16.097
298.772
55.965
2’37.620
:56.390
57.131.500
193.710.963
47.425.895
45.379.610
43.773.950
194,715.992
3.967
6.474
74.396
u.949
61.470
3.611
7.646
63.571
0.9?3
51.766
3.739
6.320
75.318
0.898
55.489
4.879
8.703
88.752
l.lB2
76.563
16.197
31.343
302.037
3.942
235.290
16.195
:)I.436
304.153
3.936
236.661
139.256
127.709
141.764
180.079
568.806
592.383
Page 2
Revised
10/g/97
Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 1 (continued)
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997cH TO 1999Q4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
Before-Rates
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Leners & Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nonprofit
CI~SSWX”
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
NO”p,Ofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated,
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel Post
(Inter-BMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Ma”er
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD S
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Regisby
l”S”FJ”CZ
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
199901
1999Q2
1999a3
1999a4
1999PFY
1999GFY
22.496.557
12.705.647
1,182.028
8.608.861
1.460.370
150.609
1.309.761
645.784
158.939
505.036
23.956.926
23,855.201
13,344.292
1.229.744
9.281.164
1.326.762
145.007
1.183.755
580.172
141.016
462.567
25.183.962
22.112.194
11.938.094
1.153.437
9,020.663
1.318.915
136.342
1.182.573
576.105
136.258
468.209
23.431.109
28.983.938
16.118.585
1.413.192
11.452.161
1.604.780
173.256
1.631.524
790.000
187.156
654368
30.788.718
97.447.669
54.106.618
4.978,401
38.362~669
5,912.827
605.214
5.307,613
2,592.061
625.370
2.090.182
103.360.715
97.892~734
54.272.087
4.977.359
38.643.266
5.948.509
609.277
5.339.232
2:603.682
626.389
2,108.962
103.841.243
277~861
14.715
0.941
274.028
16.007
1.274
277.802
16.241
1.072
351.542
20.831
1.025
1.181.233
67.794
4.311
1.166,173
66.160
4.309
208.609
522.864
12.215
1.633.901
2.377.588
208.466
507.397
11.254
1.667.894
2.395.011
209.333
524.598
12.791
1.733.982
2,480.706
261.864
606.980
12.091
2.191.455
3.092.391
908.273
2.161.639
48,351
7.227,233
10.345.695
910.992
2,169.132
48.613
7 254.141
10 382.879
42.061
18.022.767
9.170.696
2.373.979
6.796.716
Q352.072
8.272.415
579.656
3,654.990
2.793.462
1,11o.g17
1.682.565
861.509
763.222
98.287
21.719.819
36.448
15.383.563
7,918.233
2.048.773
5369.460
7.465.330
6.976.481
488.849
3.011.199
2.302.231
913.765
1.388.466
708.969
628.045
80.924
18.431.211
40.912
15.500.225
8.144.310
2,106.272
6.038.038
7.355.915
6,874.231
481.684
3.051.500
2.333.458
921.668
1.411.570
718.042
636.065
81.977
18.592.637
50.177
20.326.591
10.782.599
2.787.265
7.995.314
9.543.992
8.919.027
624,965
3.729.997
2.852.723
1.119.368
1.733.355
877.274
777.100
100.174
24.106.765
169,599
69.233.146
36.015.638
9.316.310
26.699.528
33.217.306
2,175,155
13.447.686
10.281.893
4.066.936
6.215.955
3,165.793
2.804.431
361,362
82.850.432
170.424
69,678.483
36.254368
9.376.963
26,877.405
33.424.116
31:235.418
2.188.697
13.521.117
10.338.517
4.083.938
6.254.579
3.182.600
2.819.296
363.301
83.370.024
65.945
13.609
13.071
39.265
166.888
60.973
8.603
302.409
63.663
12.549
12.429
38.6&
120.343
44.379
7.108
235.493
55.370
10.416
10.641
34.311
118.272
43.238
7.193
224.073
66.303
12.258
12.912
43.134
192.449
54,866
8.015
323.633
253.281
48.834
49.053
155.394
597.952
203.456
30.919
1.085.609
255.124
48,637
49.216
157.270
604.504
204.847
31.072
1.095.547
63.804
15.696
69.618
11.786
68.671
15.166
68.330
16.928
270.623
59.579
269.838
60.076
199.225.991
200.280.249
48.729.758
46.618.393
45.107.676
58.770.163
,~~~~~..
3.687
8.322
78.897
0.856
54.158
3.342
7.910
66.995
0.627
55.593
3.464
6.269
81.269
0.807
56.715
4.542
8.774
94.073
1.071
61~470
15.035
31,295
321.235
3.561
249.936
15.031
31.397
323.774
3.553
‘251,409
145.921
134.668
150.643
189.930
621.062
625.164
Page 3
Revlsec
Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 2
WARTERLYVOLUME
FORECASTS. 1997Q1 TO lgggQ4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
II” Millions Of Piece.,
Before-Rater
(Actual)
199,a,
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Si”gle-PieC$
(Nonautomated Presod)
(Automated)
(Basic Lenen)
(Basic Flats)
(BDigit Letters)
(6oigit Letters,
(w5-Digif Flats)
(Carder-Route Letters)
Firs,-Class cards
Stamped Cards
Pdvate Cards
(SinglePie+
(Nona”tom*tec PceSOii,
(AUtO”l*td,
(Basic,
(3.Digit)
(5-Digil)
(Carrier-Route)
TOTAL FIRST-CL&S6 MAIL
STANDARD A MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(NO”*“tOm*ted,
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Nonleners)
(Presort Lenerr)
(Presort Nonletters)
(A”tO”*ted,
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Flats)
(S-Digit Letters)
p-Digit Letters)
(315Digit Fiats,
Enhancad Canier-Route
(A”tO”lC3ted)
(Basic Letter*)
(Basic Nonletters,
(High-Density Letters)
(High-Density NonIe”ers)
(Saturation Letters)
(Saturation Nonletier-3)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonpraht
(Nona”tomated,’
(Basic Letters)
(EmSiCNonle”en)
(Presod Letters)
(Presori Nonleners)
(Automated)
(Bfisic Letter*)
(E%SiCFlats)
p-Digit Letters)
(5.Digit Letters)
(315-Digit Flats,
NDnprOhtECR
(Automated,
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Nonletters)
(High-Density Letters,
(High-Density Nonletters)
(Saturatian Letters)
(Saturation Nonletters)
TOTAL STANDARD A MAIL
33.966
13.905.081
7.134.231
1.779.793
363.814
275.211
570.161
559~607
5.354438
645.29,
53,199
1.999.352
610.062
2.046.528
6.770.850
482.305
1.296.642
2.215488
81.16,
278.479
591.509
1.825.259
2.835323
2,269.161
964.575
294~449
81.992
497.315
110.819
1,284,60,
238,880
10,309
607.399
250.291
167.72,
566.442
86.109
198~424
102.379
7~516
2~066
131.113
38,834
16.774,6,0
10/9/97
Revised
10/g/97
Exhibit USPS-GA
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 199701 TO 199904
GOVERNMENT DlSTRlSUTED TO CLASS
Remed
Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 2 (mnti”“ed)
0”ARTERLY”OL”ME
FORECASTS, 199701 TO 199904
GOVERNMENT DlSTRlBUTED TO CLASS
1019197
Revised
Exhibit
10/g/97
USPS-GA
TABLE 3
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, lgs7Ql TO 1999Q4
GOVERNMENT
DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
After-Rates
1998Ql
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flat*
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presod)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nonprofit
ClEFSSKW*
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel Post
(Inter-EMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DEMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC
MAIL
SPECtAL SERVICES
Regisby
I”S”ra”ce
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPEClAL SERVICES
lSS8Q2
fssact3
1998Q4
1998PFY
1998GFY
22.071.668
12,808.434
1,177.871
8.085.362
1.380.076
143.954
1.236.123~
624.925
169.955
441.243
23.451.744
23.303.995
13,423.OlS
1.194.246
8,686.730
1.248.684
140.791
1.107.893
557.697
151.956
398.240
24,552.679
21,504.SZl
11.946.123
1.118.971
8.439.827
1.212.769
129.511
l.oa3.258
542.609
146.188
394.462
22.717.690
28.173.532
16.063.409
1.372.994
10.737~129
1.656.310
165.874
1.490.436
742.872
197,807
549.758
29,8?9.842
95.054.115
54.240,985
4.864.082
35.949.048
5.497,840
580.130
4.917.710
2.468.104
665.905
1.783.702
100.551.955
95.446.568
54413.387
4 855.407
36 177.775
5 523.046
583.005
4,940,041
2,476.656
667.024
1.796.361
100.969.614
259.625
13.791
1.019
253.641
14.947
1.392
254.885
15.206
1.189
321,864
19.562
1.159
1.090.215
63.507
4.759
1.095.437
63.857
4.757
208.739
525.442
13.497
1.625.119
2.372.797
202.923
506.722
11.525
1,641.655
2,362.826
208.317
518.781
I 1.802
1.704.212
2.443.112
279.323
604.456
10.963
2.151.991
3,046.732
899.303
2.155.401
47.787
7,122.977
10.225.467
901.870
2.161.077
47.452
7.147,574
lC.257.973
40.888
17.222.328
9.417.579
2,29X863
7.117.717
7,604.749
7.248.500
556.249
3,561.213
2,841.545
1.004.709
1,836.836
719.668
623.488
96.180
20.824~429
34.524
14.676.065
8,298.212
2,018.513
6.279.699
6.377.853
5.915.736
462.117
2,921.082
2,355.207
813.681
1.541.525
565.876
486.926
78.950
17.631.672
38.707
14.7oa.la3
a.447.t~~
2,063.941
6.383.181
6,261.060
5.aio.2ai
450.780
2,948.473
2,375.834
819.951
1.555.883
572.639
492.926
79.713
17,&x363
46.880
19.307.115
11.173.154
2,733.903
a,439.251
8.133.961
7,551.603
582.358
3.627.343
2.S21.388
1.005.!305
I ,SI 5.482
705.955
607.865
98.090
22.9af.338
160.999
65.913.691
37.336.067
9.116.220
2a.zis.a47
28.577.624
26.526~120
2.051.504
i3.05a.ill
10.493.974
3.644.247
6.849.727
2.564.137
2.211.204
352.933
79.132.ao2
161.574
66313.735
37.627.554
0.164.917
ZB.442.638
28.6a6.1al
26.626.519
2.059.662
13.122.251
10,550.968
3.658.517
5.892.45i
:!,571.283
2.216.629
354.654
79.597.559
61.685
14.627
12.361
34.697
148.296
58.785
6.291
277.151
57.075
12.796
10.847
33.432
113.267
44.138
6.685
220.980
50.030
10.620
9.230
30.180
109.672
42.635
6.548
208.615
61.611
12,472
11.170
37.968
185.559
53.859
7.138
307.640
230.601
50.716
43~608
136,277
556.795
199.416
28,663
l,oi4.387
231.879
50.375
43.566
137.936
562.598
200.807
28.711
1.022.ai7
73.163
14.780
73.278
11~094
75.432
13.993
76.879
16.097
298.772
55.965
297.820
56.390
192,438.917
193.367.404
47.268.829
45.122.693
43.425.755
56.601.641
3.739
8.358
73.417
‘0.946
51.460
3.250
7.646
61.857
0.905
51.750
3.240
6.120
72.301
0.885
55.466
4.139
8.417
84.161
1.159
76.527
14.368
30.541
291.735
3.895
235.204
14.288
30.600
293.118
3.886
236.570
137.919
125.408
138.013
174.402
575.743
578.463
PaQe 7
Revised
10/g/97
Exhibit
USPS-GA
TABLE 3 (continued)
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, lSs7Ql TO lSSSQ4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
Atier-Rates
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presod)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nonpmfit
Classroom
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
NOnprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel post
(Inter-BMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC
MAIL
SPEClAL SERVICES
Regisby
lnswance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
1999Ql
199902
199903
1999Q4
22,335.822
12.709.al8
1,057.149
8.568.854
I,393626
147.111
1.252.515
620.754
163.326
468.435
23.735.448
23.682.135
i3,348.402
1,099.zaf
9.234452
1.273.541
141,639
1.131.902
557.685
144.962
429.256
24.955.676
21,944.267
I I ,941.aoz
1.030.600
8.971.865
1.263.832
133.176
1.130.656
553.776
142.181
434.699
23,206.099
28,77l.a41
16,123.687
1,262.174
11.385.981
1.728.969
169.232
1.559.737
759.380
192.542
607.814
30,500.811
96734.065
54,123.709
4.449.205
38,161.151
5.665.969
591.158
5.074.610
2.491.595
643.011
1.940.204
102,400.034
265.676
14.437
0.941
262.012
15.705
1.274
265.620
15.935
1.072
336.127
20.437
1.025
1.129.436
66.514
4.311
1.136.072
66.872
4.309
206.029
515.040
11.042
1,625.002
2.357.113
205.974
499.984
10.219
f.658afo
2.374.987
206.894
517.084
11.657
i,724.538
2.460.173
278.622
598.377
11.047
2.179.519
3,067.565
897,518
2.130.486
43.964
7.187.869
10.259.837
900.247
2,137.769
44.231
7,214.631
10.296.878
40.684
17.855.469
10.094.85s
2.453940
7.640.919
7.760.610
7.205.590
555.020
3.607.557
2.904.99a
1.000.373
1 .SO4625
702.559
605.182
97.377
21.503.710
35.255
15.242.043
8,697.iso
2.116.132
6,5ai.o5a
6.544.854
6.076.761
468.072
2.971.434
2.392.712
825.276
1.567.435
578.723
498.620
80. I 03
18.248.733
39.573
15.360.078
8,911.148
2.173.867
6,737.281
6,448.930
5.987.718
461.272
3,010.902
2.424.617
836.398
1.58a.119
586.365
505.272
81.113
18.410.552
48,534
20.i44.228
11.777.011
2.a74.601
8.902.410
8.367.217
7.768.813
598.403
3.680.128
2.963.452
1,021.291
1.942.161
716.675
617.590
99.085
23.672.889
164045
68.601.aia
39.480.208
9.618.540
29:861.668
29.121.610
27.038.902
2,O82.708
13.270.021
10.685.679
3.683.339
7,002.340
2.584342
2y226.664
357.678
82.035.884
164.843
69,043.071
39.740.154
9.679.429
30:660.724
29.302.sia
27,207.243
2.095.675
13,342.139
10.743.783
?,,703.611
7.040.172
2596.356
:!:238.797
359.560
6:! 550.054
63.437
12.256
11~319
39.862
164.482
61.062
7.938
296.412
61.337
11.301
10.764
39.272
i I a.608
44.444
a.559
230.582
53.430
9.382
9.215
34.833
116.567
43.302
6.637
219.575
66.010
11~038
fi.182
43.790
189.674
54.947
7.395
317.469
244.214
43.977
42.460
157.756
589.330
203.755
28.529
1.064038
246.083
43.800
42.621
159.663
595.787
205.148
28.671
f.073.880
63.804
15.696
69.618
il.788
68.871
15.166
68.330
16.928
270.623
59.579
269.838
60.076
197.292.048
198.333.945
48.253.744
46.170.741
44.665.422
58.202.139
1999PN
1S’SSGFY
97,174.foa
54,:1a9.205
4.447.874
38.437.028
5.700.049
!;95.,27
5;104.922
2.502.958
1344.116
1.!357.849
102,,374.157
3.118
8.052
74.647
0.839
54.132
2.826
7.667
63.386
0.611
55.566
2.929
6.092
76.890
0.791
58.686
3.841
6.504
89.005
1.049
ai ,430
12.714
30.305
303.928
3.490
249815
12.711
30.408
306.330
3.482
251.268
140.787
130.247
145.388
183.830
600.252
604.219
page 8
Revked
10/g/97
Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 4
aumTmY VOLUME FORECASTS, 7997a4TO
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
ARer-R&s
1998a4
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single-Piece)
(Nona”tomated Presort)
(Automated,
(Basic Lelters)
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Letters)
(6.Digit Letters)
(315.Digit Flats)
(Carrier-Route Letters,
First-class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Sil7$~-Pi~C@
(Nonautomated Presort,
(Automated)
(Basic,
(3.Digit)
(5Digit)
(CXdWRWk,
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
STANDARD A MAIL
Single-Piece
Re9ular Rate B”lk
Re9”lar
(NonautOmated)
(Basic Letlers,
(Basic Nonleners,
(Presod Lenen,
(Presort Nonletters,
(Automated)
(Basic Letters)
(Basic’Flats)
(3.Digit Letters,
(5-agit Letters,
(315.Digit Flats)
Enhanced Carrier-Route
(Automated)
(Basic Leners,
(Basic Nanletters)
(High-Density Letters,
(High-Density Nonletters)
(Saturation k”w,,
(Saturatian Nonletters,
NonproRt Rate Sulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomatedj
(Basic Letters,
(Basic Nonletters)
(Presort Letters,
(Presort Nonletters,
(Automated)
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Letters)
&Digit Letters)
(315.Digit Flats)
Nonprofit ECR
(Automated)
(Basic Lenen)
(Basic Nonletters)
(High-Density Idtern,
(High-Density Nonletters,
(Sa,“ra,lon Leners)
(sat”raoon Nonletters)
TOTAL STANDARD A MAlL
m3a4
799802
1998a3
1998~4
22.071.668
12.606.434
1.177.57,
*.0*5.3**
970.12,
11,016
4.648.971
2.117.362
52.548
285.319
1,3*0.07*
143,954
1.236.123
624~925
169.955
441~243
53,557
198,226
131,661
27,469
23,451,,44
23.303.995
13.423.019
1.194.246
8.***.,3cl
1.038.600
11.511
5,010.**0
2279.249
56.572
269.838
1,24*.**4
140.791
1.107.893
557.69,
151.956
395.240
75.892
152.159
117~185
22.974
W552.679
21.504.921
11.946.123
1.116.971
5.439.527
1.004.367
11.428
4,*,3.*3,
2,214.14*
54.953
281.094
1.212.769
129.511
1.053.255
542.609
146.188
394.462
74.820
182.179
ll5.301
22.162
22.717690
26.173.532
16.063.409
1.372.994
10.737.129
1.271.71,
14.48,
6.207.360
2.816632
69.913
367.020
1.656.310
165.874
1.490.436
742.872
197.80,
549.758
103.78,
256.197
,59.***
30.086
29.529.842
95.054.115
54.240.985
4.864.082
35.949.045
4.264.811
48.742
20.740.629
9.427.409
233.986
1.213.272
5.497.540
660.130
4.917.710
2.468.104
665.905
1.783.702
336.386
518.791
523.835
102.690
100.551.955
95446.569
*4.413,3*,
4.855~407
36.177~775
4.308.32,
49.024
20.879.382
9.486.132
235507
1,217,40:3
5.623.046
583.005
4.940.04~1
2,4X655
667.024
1.796.36'1
340.649
826.560
526.69,
102~566
100.969.614
40,885
17.222.328
9.417.579
2.299.863
572.743
441.118
737.495
548.507
7.117.71,
794.591
54371
2.416.417
1.515967
2.326.368
7.804.749
556.249
1.013.667
2.836.452
104.469
305.796
**0.*01
2.167.516
3.561.213
2.841.545
1,004.709
277.166
105.965
495.314
126.264
1.*3*.*3*
338.005
18.947
785.994
491.061
202.829
719.668
96.150
268.541
155.728
10.544
3.923
136.505
47.54,
20.824.429
34524
14.676.065
8.298.212
2.016.613
524.580
403.319
637.04,
463,566
6.279.699
657,490
56.802
2.063.439
1.446.352
2.006.616
*,3,,.*53
462.11,
676.335
2.381.306
87.759
257.470
689.267
1.821.598
2.921.082
2.356.20,
813.681
200.226
79.533
423.663
110.059
1.541.525
276.511
16.002
661.942
430.933
166.l36
565.576
,*.950
192.959
129.006
8.982
3.264
113.141
39.554
17.631.672
38.70,
14.70*.,*3
8.447.122
2.063.941
538.224
414.912
650.429
460.376
6.3*3.l81
702.316
55.466
2.134.859
1.440.72,
2.046.813
*.2*1,0*0
450,760
660.051
2.340.674
86.300
253.610
677.751
1.791.866
2.948.473
2.375634
519.951
208.362
51.79,
420.459
109.312
K555.853
277.622
16.133
669.310
436.206
167,613
572.639
79.713
194.805
130.794
9.106
3.301
114.736
40.lM
17.695.363
46.880
19.307.115
11.173.154
2.733.903
714.441
553.726
859.230
606.509
8.439.251
930.926
77.592
2.634.6M
1.582.310
2.713.818
6.133.961
552.355
850.925
3.044.215
112.283
330.446
881.742
2.331.99,
3.627.343
2.921.388
1.005.905
295.710
110.445
475.485
124.266
1.915.482
340.664
19.823
813.228
636.736
206.132
705.955
95.090
239.694
161.493
ll.243
4.078
141.691
49.655
22.951.338
160.999
66.913.691
37.336.06,
9.116.220
2.349.986
1.813.073
2.864.201
2.068.958
28,219.84,
3.115322
257.234
9.469.319
6.265366
9.092.616
28.577.624
2.051.604
3.203.008
10.602.64,
390.611
1.147.32,
3.069.362
5.l12.971
13.055.l11
10.493.974
3.644.24,
9Sl.485
3,774,
,,*15.121
469.901
6.549.727
1.232.703
70.905
2.910.474
1.592.934
742.711
2.5M.13,
352.933
596.299
577.021
40.174
14.555
506.072
177.082
79.132.802
,61,5,‘1
66.313.7315
37.627~564
9,1*4,917
2,3,3.994
1.532.577
2.902.289
2.075.756
28.442.63"
3,13*.543
259.382
9.535.366
6.368.646
9.152.702
26.686.l8'
2.059.662
3.173.765
10.660.705
392.985
1.154.0,"
3.066.36,
8.l58.599
13.122.251
10,550.9*0
3.656.51,
991.091
380.624
1.8,5.98"
4,0.*2:!
6.892.45.
1.237.641
71.359
2.927.691
1.909.475
,46.28!i
2.571.283
354.654
593.787
580.550
40.407
14.647
509.019
178.22"
79.597559
1998PFY
,998GFY
R&%d
10/g/97
Exhibit USPS-GA
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single-Piece,
(Nonautomated P~esoti,
(Automated)
(Basic LeNem)
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digi, Letters,
(5.Digit Letters)
(315Digit Flats)
(Came,-Route Le”ers)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private cards
(Single-Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated,
(Basic)
(3.Digit)
(*-Digit)
(Carrier-Route)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
TABLE 4 (continued)
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997Ql TO 199904
GOVERNMENT DlSTRlSUTED TO CLASS
(I” MilliOflS Of Pieces,
Alter-Rates
199901
1999a2
f999a3
1999m
,999PFY
22.335522
~2~~~9.~1~
1.057.149
B.568.854
1.010.261
11.538
4.959.007
2.247.752
55.850
284.446
1.399.626
147,111
1.252.515
620.754
163.325
468~435
57.944
219.917
135,5ll
24,963
23,73*,44*
23.652.135
13.348.402
1.099.281
9.234.452
1.083.581
12.415
5.349.715
2.422.426
60.261
306.052
1.273.54,
141.639
1.131.902
557.655
144.962
429.256
ml40
202.895
123.941
22.277
24955.675
21.944.267
11.941.802
1,030.*00
*,971.**5
1.047.480
12.044
5.202.999
2.353.813
58.616
296.912
1.263.532
133.176
1.130.656
553.776
142.151
434.699
50.722
206.517
125.187
21.973
23.208.099
28.771.841
16.123.687
1.262.174
11,3**.9.81
1.322.154
15.265
~~~~9.9~3
2.987.776
74.475
376.298
1.726969
169.232
1.559.737
759.350
192.542
607.614
112.290
290.995
174.596
.29.931
30.500.81,
95.734.065
54.123.709
4.449.205
38.151.151
4.463.505
51.252
22.121.706
10.011.766
249.202
1.263.708
5.665969
591,155
5.074.510
2.491.595
643.011
1.940.204
361.095
920.630
559.334
99.144
102.400.034
97.174~108
54.289.20~6
4.447.57~4
35.437.02,E
4.490.745
51.51~3
22,285.63,4
10.054500
25, ,067
1.272.464
5.700.c-a
595.127
5.104922
2.502.955
544.115
1.957~849
363.935
930.352
5e40**
99.444
!02.874.,5?
40.654
17.855.469
10.094.859
2.453.940
642.515
500.835
765.965
541.62,
7.640.919
536.381
69.715
2.550.390
1.745.012
2.439.421
7.760.610
555.020
810.653
2.905.095
107.161
315.452
841.501
2.225.716
3.607.557
2.904938
1.000.373
301.776
111.781
465.066
121.750
1.904.625
337.174
19.703
810.154
532.455
205.109
702.559
97.377
238.866
161.050
11.154
4.067
140.503
49.542
2,.*03.7,0
35.255
15.242.043
8.697.190
2.116132
555.167
435.160
661.136
461.669
~~5~1.~5~
72, ,907
60.175
2.204.430
1.457.945
2.106.600
6.544854
458.072
683.655
2.449.993
90.373
256.042
709.674
1.877.041
2.971.434
2.392.712
825.276
229.555
57.260
403.075
105.256
1.567.435
275.588
16.215
667.933
438.38,
169.015
578.723
80.103
196.985
132.515
9.165
3.354
115.439
40.856
15.248.733
39.573
15.360.078
5.911.l45
2,,73.**7
571.479
450.369
677.130
474.590
6.737~281
742.264
61.874
2.269.735
1.496.315
2,1*7.090
6.445.930
461.212
673.638
2.414.085
89.049
252.143
699.272
1.549.531
3.010.902
2,+24.5,7
536.398
239.477
90.027
401.536
,0*.05*
1.588.119
275.345
15.41,
677,871
444.173
171.319
***.3**
51.113
199.699
134.643
9.280
3.400
116.831
41.419
18.410.552
48.534
20.144.225
11.777.011
2.574.601
757.275
599.925
592.679
624.719
8,902.410
982.378
81.592
3.005.060
1.960.526
2.569.554
5.367.217
595.403
874.017
3.132.174
115.537
340.120
907.277
2.399.659
3.650.128
2.963.452
1.021.29,
331.437
119.692
451.522
115.639
1.942.161
339.495
20.035
530.226
542.945
209.460
716.675
99.055
244.174
164.629
11.332
4.155
142.654
50.643
23.872.889
164.045
6*.*o1.61*
39.450.208
9.618.540
2.526.435
1.966.290
2.999.913
2.105.900
29.861.568
3.252.931
273.656
10.032.616
~~~~9.~~~
9.552.665
29.l21.610
2.082.705
3.M1.965
10.901.351
402.119
1.l53.766
3.157.723
5.351.977
13.270.021
10.655.679
3.683.339
1.102.376
408.760
1.721~499
450.704
7.002.340
1.230.902
72.364
2.956.155
1.957.983
754906
2.584.342
357.678
579.727
593.136
40.934
14.979
515.428
152.460
52.035.884
164,843
*9,043.071
39.740.154
9.679.429
2543.688
2.002.35”
3.016.729
2,1,6.62S
30,060.72~,
3.304403
275.44tl
10.101.540
6.732.W”
9.546.493
29.302.91”
page 10
,999GFY
3.050.904
10.969.221
404.623
1,,91.136
3.177.383
8.403.975
13.342.139
10.743.783
3.703.611
1.115.759
4,2.74(1
1.723.674,
451.400
7.04O.l72
1 236.24il
72.73Ei
3.003.537
1.955.58E1
759.06El
2.595.3561
359.56(1
854.61B
596.4321
41,145
15.06il
515.06Ei
183.474.
82.550.054
USPS-6-1,
10/9/97
After-Rates
1995.3
1995.4
1996.1
1996.2
1996.3
1996.4
1997.1
1997.2
1997.3
1997.4
1998.1
1998.2
1998.3
1998.4
1999.1
1999.2
1999.3
1999.4
2000.1
PP Inter-BMC
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
4.686889
5.252293
5.397683
5.397683
5.397683
5.397683
5.397683
5.397683
5.397683
5.397683
PP Intra-BMC
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
2.681315
3.106405
3.215714
3.215714
3.215714
3.215714
3.215714
3.215714
3.215714
3.215714
Table I-35
Prices for Standard
PPDBMC
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.467896
2.501443
2.510069
2.510069
2.510069
2.510069
2.510069
2.510069
2.510069
2.510069
53
B Mail
BPM
Special Rate
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.870203
1.763468
0.900858
1.757796
0.908741
1.756337
0.908741
1.756337
0.908741
1.756337
0.908741
1.756337
0.908741
1.756337
0.90874 1
1.756337
0.908741
1.756337
0.908741
1.756337
Library Rate
I.589069
1.589069
1.591078
1591!jo2
1.591502
1.591502
1.593308
1.593935
1.593935
1.593935
1.768312
1.813152
1.813152
1.813152
1.813152
1.813152
1.813152
1.813152
1.813152
Revised
ATTACHMENT
ExDlanation
of Changtiinorecast
Presented
in Attachment
R
A comparison of the actual 1997Q3 volume data and the R97-1 before-rates volume
forecast presented by Dr. Tolley revealed a fairly significant under-forecast of 1997Q3
volume. This under-forecast was persistent across First-Class, Periodical, and Standard A
mail. Upon examining the forecast, it was determined that the primary source of the
forecast error in 1997Q3 was caused by an error in the calculation of the quarterly multiplier
used in forecasting, as described below.
Volume forecasts are made by multiplying a series of projection factors times a base
volume. The base volume is the volume in the four most recent quarters. Hence, one of
the projection factors used in making quarterly volume forecasts is a quarterly multiplier,
which is used to scale down the annual base volume to a quarterly level.
In earlier rate cases, the demand equations estimated by Dr. Tolley were modeled using a
dependent variable equal to volume (per adult) per accounting period. Hence, the quarterly
multiplier used to distribute annual base volumes into quarterly forecasts was equal to the
percentage of accounting periods within the particular quarter: 3/l 3 for Postal quarters 1, 2,
and 3, and 4/13 for Postal quarter 4.
In the present case, however, the demand equations estimated by Mr. Thress (USPS-T-7)
use as a dependent variable volume (per adult) per business day. Hence, in this case, the
quarterly multiplier should be equal to the percentage of business days in the year within a
particular quarter.
If each accounting period had exactly the same number of business days this would be a
completely semantic distinction, and the forecasts would be identical. A total of seven
holidays are excluded from the count of business days used econometrically, however (see,
USPS-T-7, p. 126, II. 14-16). If these holidays were distributed proportionally across the
Postal quarters, then this would have no effect on the results. In fact, how’ever, Postal
quarter 3 contains no Postal holidays in the forecast period, while Postal qluarters 1 and 2
contain two holidays apiece and Postal quarter 4 contains three holidays, so that Postal
quarters 1 and 2 contain 64 business days, Postal quarter 3 contains 66 business days, and
Postal quarter 4 contains 85 business days.
Hence, the quarterly multipliers used in Library Reference LR-H-173 (3/13. 3/13, 3/13, and
4/13 for Postal quarters 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively) should be replaced by quarterly
multipliers equal to (64/279, 64/279, 66/279, and 851279, respectively). This change will
serve to increase forecasted volumes in the third Postal quarter of each year, while
decreasi.ng forecasted volumes in the first, second, and fourth Postal quarter of each year.
These changes almost perfectly offset each other, however, at the annual level, as shown in
the Table below, so that the Test Year forecasts are essentially unaffected by this change.
Supplemental versions of Table 1 from Dr. Tolley’s testimony (USPS-T-6) and Exhibit
USPS-GA are attached which present the forecasts using the correct quarterly multipliers,
and corrected volume forecasting spreadsheets are filed as Library Reference LR-H-295.
B
Effect of Change in Quarterly Multipliers on Test Year Volume Forecasts
Before Rates Volume
Revised
Corrected
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort).
(Automated)
.First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presott)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Change
Pieces
Percent
After-Rates Volume
Revised
Corrected
Change
Pieces
Percent
95,901.297
54394.309
5,369.390
36,137.599
5,693.117
594.894
5.098.223
2,546.540
643.732
1,907.951
101.594414
95,901.600
54,379.323
5,370.875
36.151.602
5,692.142
594.834
5.097.308
2,545.903
643.598
1,907.807
101,593.941
0.503
(14.985)
1.485
14.003
(0.976)
(0.061)
(0.915)
(0.637)
(0.134)
(0.144)
(0.473)
0.00%
-0.03%
0.03%
0.04%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.02%
-0.03%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.00%
95.446.568
54.413.387
4.855.407
36,177.775
5.523.046
583.005
4.940.041
2,476.656
667.024
1.796.361
100,969.614
95,445.074
54,398.337
4,856.599
36,190.138
5,522.041
582.936
4,939.106
2,476.015
666.889
1.796.201
100.967.115
(1.494)
(15.049)
1.192
12.363
(1.004)
(0.069)
(0.935)
(0.641)
(0.134)
(0.160)
(2.498)
-0.00%
-0.03%
0.02%
0.03%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.02%
-0.03%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.00%
1.131.663
64.832
4.757
1,131.663
64.832
4.761
0.000
0.000
0.004
0.00%
0.00%
0.09%
1,095.437
63.857
4.757
1.095.437
63.857
4.761
0.000
0.000
o.M)4
0.00%
0.00%
0.09%
PERIODICAL MAIL
Wrthin County
Nonprofit
Classroom
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL MAIL
911.204
2tf86.677
51.194
7tl72.571
lo,321646
911.249
2,187.615
51.242
7,174.843
10,324.949
0.045
0.939
0.047
2.272
3.303
0.00%
0.04%
0.09%
0.03%
0.03%
901.870
2.161.077
47.452
7,147.574
10,257.973
901.909
2.161.985
47.493
7.149.830
10.261.217
0.039
0.908
0.041
2.256
3.244
0.00%
0.04%
0.09%
0.03%
0.03%
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautcmated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
165.695
66.783.249
34.359.008
8,904.147
25454.861
32.424.240
30,301.017
2,123.223
13,255.224
10,123.229
4,086.150
6,037.079
3,131.995
2,775.082
356.913
80,204.168
165.769
66,777.649
34,357.605
8902.702
25,454.904
32,420.044
30.297.197
2,122.847
13.255.448
10.123.379
4.086.192
6.037.187
3.132.069
2.775.147
356.922
80,198.857
0.865
(5.599)
(1.403)
(1.446)
0.043
(4.196)
(3.821)
(0.376)
0.223
0.149
0.042
0.108
0.074
0.065
0.009
(5.311)
0.04%
-0.01%
-0.00%
-0.02%
0.00%
-0.01%
-0.01%
-0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.01%
161.574
66.313.735
37,627.554
9,164.917
28,442.638
28.686.181
26.626.519
2,059.662
13.122.251
10.550968
3,658.517
6,892.451
2,571.283
2,216.629
354.654
79.597.559
161.635
66,307.879
37,626.125
9,183.527
28,442.599
28,681.754
26,622.482
2.059.272
13.122.422
10,551.217
3,658.460
6,892.758
2,571.205
2,216.543
354.662
79,591.937
0.061
(5.856)
(1.429)
(1.390)
(0.039)
(4.427)
(4.037)
(0.390)
0.172
0.250
(0.057)
0.307
(0.078)
(0.087)
0.008
(5.623)
0.04%
-0.01%
-0.00%
-0.02%
-0.00%
-0.02%
-0.02%
-0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.00%
0.00%
-0.00%
-0.00%
0.00%
-0.01%
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
Effect of Change in Quarterly Multipliers on Test Year Volume Forecasts
Parcel Post
(Inter-BMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
Before Rates Volume
Revised
Corrected
241.598
241.555
55.256
55.244
49.406
49.396
136.937
136.914
567.896
567.292
200.562
200.489
30.245
30.252
1,040.302
1,039.587
297.820
56.390
194.715.992
298.093
56.427
194,713.llO
Change
Pieces
Percent
(0.044)
-0.02%
10.0121
-0.02%
iO.oo9j
-0.02%
(0.023)
-0.02%
(0.604)
-0.11%
(0.073)
-0.04%
0.02%
0.006
(0.715)
-0.07%
After-Rates Volume
Revised
Corrected
231.879
231.826
50.375
50.360
43.566
43.552
137.938
137.914
562.598
561.999
200.807
200.734
28.711
28.716
1,022.817
1.023.275
Change
Pieces
Percent
(0.054)
-0.02%
(0.016)
-0.03%
(0.014)
-0.03%
(0.024)
-0.02%
(0.599)
-0.11%
(0.073)
-0.04%
0.005
0.02%
0.457
0.04%
0.272
0.037
0.09%
0.06%
297.820
56.390
298.093
56.427
0.272
0.037
0.09%
0.06%
(2.883)
-0.00%
193,367.404
193.362.119
(5.285)
-0.00%
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
Insurance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
16.195
31.438
394.153
3.936
236.661
16.198
31.413
304345
3.936
236.686
0.001
(0.026)
0.192
(0.000)
0.025
0.01%
-0.08%
0.06%
-0.00%
0.01%
14.288
30.600
293.118
3.886
236.570
14.288
30.574
293.299
3.888
236.598
(0.000)
(0.026)
0.181
(0.000)
0.025
-0.00%
-0.08%
0.06%
-0.00%
0.01%
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
592.383
592.575
0.193
0.03%
578.463
578.643
0.180
0.03%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
SUPPLEMENTAL TABLE 1
VOLUME PROJECTIONS
(Million Pieces)
C&aorv
of Mail or Service
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters & Flats
(Single-piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single-piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail’
Express Mail’
Mailgrams
PERIODICALS
Within County
Nonprofit
Classroom
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICALS
STANDARD A MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Base Yea
Test Year
Before-Rates
Test Year
After-Rates
Adiusted
After-Rates
92,899.506
53,738.949
7,846.568
31,313.989
5217.264
570.329
4,646.935
2,437.427
710.712
1,498.796
98,116.770
95,901.800
54,379.323
5,370.875
36,151.602
5692.142
594.834
5,097.308
2,545.903
643.598
1,907.807
101,593.941
95,445.074
54,398.337
4,856.599
36,190.138
5,522.041
582.936
4,939.106
2,476.015
666.889
1,796.201
100,967.115
!35,564.539
!54,517.8022
4,856.599
36,190.138
5,522.041
582.936
4,939.106
2,476.015
666.889
1,796.201
101,086.580
991.280
58.719
5.558
1,131.663
64.832
4.761
I,095437
63.857
4.761
1,152.4133
62.721'
4.761
910.993
2,182.805
58.647
7,013.337
10.165.782
911.249
2,187.615
51.242
7,174.843
10,324.949
901.909
2,161.985
47.493
7,149.830
10,261.217
901.909
2,161.985
47.493
7,149.830
10,261.217
161.635
66,307.879
37,626.125
9,183.527
28,442.599
28,681.754
26,622.482
2,059.272
13,122.422
10,551.217
3,658.460
6,892.758
2,571.205
2,216.543
354.662
79,591.937
o.ooo4
66,313.736
:;7,627.555
158.735
165.760
60,923.517
66,777.649
30,924.312
34,357.605
10,247.842
8.902.702
20,676.469
25,454.904
29,999.206
32,420.044
28,790.811
30,297.197
1,208.395
2,122.847
12,718.009
13,255.448
9,711.959
10,123.379
5,059.538
4,086.192
4,652.422
6,037.187
3,006.050
3,132.069
2,831.120
2.775.147
174.930
356.922
73,800.261
80,198.857
(Continued on next page)
iz8,686.181
13,122.251
10,550.968
2,571.283
79,441.674
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
II
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
21
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
SUPPLEMENTAL TABLE 1
(Continued)
VOLUME PROJECTIONS
(Million Pieces)
!&teaory of Mail or Serv&
Base Year
Test
Before-Rates
STANDARD 0 MAIL
Parcel Post
(Inter-BMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
220.034
64.941
48.009
107.085
515.988
194.157
28.922
959.101
241.555
55.244
49.396
136.914
567.292
200.489
30.252
1.039.587
231.826
50.360
43.552
137.914
561.999
200.734
28.716
1,023.275
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
347.651
50.388
298.093
56.427
298.093
56.427
298.093
56.427
193,362.119
193,402.750
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL 184,495.511
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
Insurance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERV.
18.149
30.069
283.138
4.611
214.709
550.843
194,713.llO
16.196
31.413
304.345
3.936
236.686
592.575
14.288
30.574
293.299
3.886
236.596
578.643
234.6605
574.742=
200.734
28.728=
1,038.864
14.288
31.026’
289.653’
3.886
236.570
’ Volume projections before adjustment for Priority Mail and Express Mail are taken from Dr.
Gerald Musgrave’s testimony (USPS-T-8), and adjusted for the MC96-3 decision as explained in
Library Reference H-173.
*An explanation of the adjustment to First-Class single-piece is presented by ,witness Fronk
(USPS-T-32).
3 An explanation of the adjustment to Priority and Express mail is presented by witness Sharkey
(USPS-T-33).
4 An explanation of the adjustment to Standard single-piece is presented by witness Moeller
(USPS-T-36).
5 An explanation of the adjustment to parcel post is presented by witness Mayes (USPS-T-37).
6 An explanation of the adjustment to bound printed matter and library rate is presented by
witness Adra (USPS-T-38).
’ An explanation of the adjustment to insurance is presented by witness Plunk,ett (USPS-T-40).
8 An explanation of the adjustment to certified mail is presented by witness Needham (USPS-T39).
Supplemental Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 1
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 199701 TO 1999Q4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
Before-Rates
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters B Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
NCB”DKSflt
Cl&&l
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel Post
(Inter-EMC)
(Ink-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD E
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
Insurance
Cellified
Collect-an-Delivev
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
(Actual)
1997Ql
(Actual,
1997a2
1997a3
199704
1997PFY
1997GFY
21.728.723
12.693.919
1.466.616
7.547.988
1.349.376
159.569
1.189.807
641.260
162.683
385.864
23.078.099
22.961.738
13.524.103
1.389.262
8.048.374
1.242.492
175.124
1.067.36.8
506.498
159.095
401.775
24.204230
21.633.543
12.197.561
1.374.162
6.061.819
1.226.144
132.975
1.093.169
558.906
147.450
386.812
22.659.686
27.426.085
15.666.970
1.629.207
9.929.906
1.635251
165.520
1.469.731
746.118
194.637
528.776
29,061.336
93,750~.069
54.282.553
5.879.447
33.566.089
5,453.262
633.187
4,820.075
2.452.762
664.066
1.703.226
99.203.352
94,126.613
54.479.594
5.856.274
33.790.746
5,461.877
632.572
4.849.305
2.459.625
666.430
1.723.051
99.606.491
237.394
13.096
1.354
246.239
14.377
1.847
249.676
14.380
1.349
317.773
16.672
1.290
1,051.283
60.524
5.840
1.060.059
60.880
5.790
224.175
537.403
13.350
1.651.532
2.426.460
216.211
512.169
16.858
1.643.863
2.389.101
216.097
538.006
15.595
1,725.071
2,494.770
279.588
610.768
15.393
2.113.846
3.019.595
936.070
2.196.346
61.196
7.134.313
10.329.925
936.267
2.204.022
61.519
7.152.287
10.354.ll4
43.040
15.99O.l23
7.910.290
2.199.919
5.710.370
8,079.633
7.646.584
433.250
3.636.469
2.653.017
1.199.459
1.453.558
983.452
894.631
88.821
19.669.631
33.966
13.905.081
7.134231
1.779.793
5.354.438
6.770.850
6.288.545
482.305
2.835.623
2.269.181
984.575
1.284607
566.442
480.332
86.109
16.774.670
39.775
14.547.911
7.448780
1.934022
5514.758
7.099.131
465.256
6.633.875
2,981.304
2.274.843
946.588
I.326254
706.462
80.362
626.100
17.568.991
46.537
18.557.112
9,560.329
2.460.624
7.079.505
8,996.783
589.105
8.407.679
3.577.152
2.729.157
1.120.769
1.608.388
647.995
96.472
751.522
22.180.800
163.318
63.000.228
32.053.630
8.394.559
23.659.071
30.946.598
1369.916
26.976.682
13.030.548
9.926,198
4.251.390
5.674.808
3.104.350
351.764
2.752.586
76.194.093
163.585
63.466.607
32.320.312
6.435~629
23.864.683
31,166.296
2.002.448
29.163.848
13.070.162
9.979.704
4.250.772
5.728.932
3.090.458
354.570
2,735.888
76.720.354
56.902
15.960
11.995
30.947
142.625
52.487
6.947
260.960
57.756
16.592
11.551
29.612
98.493
44094
5.925
206.268
51.535
13.764
10.990
26.781
109.305
43.891
6.943
211.674
60.641
15.567
12.817
32.257
183.214
52.739
7.394
303.966
228.833
61.883
47.354
119.597
533.637
193.210
27.209
982.889
230.612
62.044
47.785
120.784
536.853
195.215
27.614
E’90.293
61.350
12.248
87.422
10.236
87.071
13.441
84.970
15.168
340.813
51.093
2840.286
51.779
45.780.593
43.934.390
43.501.238
55.003.591
186.219.612
189,,92.047
4.146
8.176
71.429
i.039
47.677
3.726
8.096
60.277
1.019
44.707
4.234
6.352
74.650
1.021
53.561
5.241
8.556
84.330
1.284
71.156
17.348
31,182
290.685
4.363
217.320
17.369
31.352
>!92.284
4.359
:!16.718
132.706
117.875
139.837
170.566
560.985
564.163
Supplemental Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 1 (continued)
WARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997Qi TO 1999D4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
SefCKe-Rate*
1998Ql
1998Q2
1998Q3
199804
1998PFY
21.959.972
12.716.939
1.263.391
7.979.642
1,389.318
144.742
1,244.578
628.189
162.187
454.200
23.349.290
23.241.374
13.333.974
1.313.066
K594.332
1.273.373
142.762
1,130.591
567.352
144.789
418.450
24.514.748
22.175.425
12.243.742
1.276.112
8.655.571
1,285.773
135.869
1.149.904
573.677
144.660
431.546
23.461.196
26,104.860
15.912.615
1.518.547
10.673.718
1.708.889
168.154
1.540.736
764.139
190.402
586.194
29.613~769
54.207.271
5.371.116
35.903.262
5.657.354
591.547
5.065.807
2,533.357
642,058
1,890,392
101.139~005
901.800
379.323
370.875
151,602
692.142
594.634
5 097.306
2,545.903
643.596
1 907.807
101,593.941
262.717
13.865
I.013
‘260.086
15.167
1.384
265.107
15.471
1.219
336.445
19.932
1.146
1.124.355
64435
4.763
1.131.663
64.832
4.761
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nonprofit
Ck3SSrOO”l
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL MAIL
208.627
525.342
13.941
1.617.070
2.364.979
203.536
506.760
12.227
1.635.747
2.360.290
216.039
539.036
13.212
1.753.919
2,522.205
260.163
607.726
12.046
2,142.035
3.041.969
906.364
2.160.664
51.426
7.148.770
10.289.443
911.249
2.167.615
51.242
7.174.643
10.324.949
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Sulk
Regular
(Nonautomated,
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
,A”tomated,
N&rofil
Rat; Sulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated,
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
41.167
17.183.526
6.626.120
2.237.748
6.390.372
8.555.406
560.203
7.995.203
3.560.771
2.716.063
1.107.590
1.610.493
642.666
95.961
746.727
20.765.454
35.093
14.664.595
7.469.565
1.941.456
5.548.109
7.195.030
471.127
6.723.903
2.931.356
2,238.467
909.379
1.329.089
692.869
78.948
613.940
17,651.043
40.796
15.l98.133
7.895.682
2.045.693
5.849.989
7.302.451
476.161
6.824.290
3.056.420
2.334.416
942.222
1.392.196
722.002
82.267
639.716
16.295.349
47.947
19.289.812
10.106.095
2.617.085
7.489.010
9.183.717
601.345
6.582.372
3.636.983
2.778.282
1.110.932
1.667.350
858.701
97.888
760.613
22.974.743
164~993
66.356.067
34,119.462
8.841.981
25.277.481
32.236.604
2.110.636
30,,25.769
13.165.530
10.069.250
4.070.122
5,999.128
3.116.280
355.084
2.761.196
165.760
66.777.849
34.357805
8.902.702
25.454.904
32,420.044
2.122.647
30,297.197
13.255.448
10.123.379
4,086.192
6,037.187
3.132.069
356.922
2.775.147
80.l98.857
63.237
15.564
13.216
34.457
147.784
58.397
8.409
277.626
59.409
14.008
12.266
33.135
113.313
43.823
6.920
223.465
53.636
12.151
10.974
30.711
113.642
43.644
7.128
218.250
63.605
13.733
12.769
37.063
166.331
53.253
7.636
310.825
240,067
55,455
49.245
135.367
561.070
199.117
30.093
1.030.367
241.565
55.244
49.396
136.914
567.292
200.489
30.252
1 039.587
72.747
14.692
72.642
11.028
77.327
14.345
76.123
15.939
299.039
56.004
296.093
56.427
56.590.693
193,714 001
194 713.110
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters &Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
Parcel post
(Inter-SMC,
(InIre-BMC)
(DBMC)
Sound Printed MaHer
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD S
POShI Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
lmurance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
47.142.565
45,110.053
44.670.471
79.706.590
1996GFY
95
54
5
36
5
3.944
8.406
73.955
0.943
51.166
3.590
7.783
63.194
0.906
51.461
3.833
6.543
77.211
0.920
56.664
4.831
8.586
87.881
1.170
75.812
16.198
31.316
302.241
3.942
235.324
16.196
31~413
304.345
3.936
i36.666
136.413
126.936
145.392
178.261
589.022
592.575
Page 2
Supplemental Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 1 (continued)
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997Ql TO 1999D4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
Before-Rates
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Leners & Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Prbate Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MALL
Within County
Nonorofit
Cla&W”
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Sulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Sulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit ECR
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel post
(Inter-SMC)
(Inlra-SMC)
(DBMC)
Sound Printed Maner
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD S
Po*tal Penalty
Free-for-the-Wind
TOTAL DOMESTIC MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
InSurance
Cefiified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
1999Q1
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
1999PFY
1999GFY
22.357.890
12.623.043
1.175.153
8.559.694
1,451.846
149.716
1.302.126
641.974
158.008
502.147
23.809.736
23.710.332
13.259.612
1.222.592
9,228.128
1,321.007
144.149
1.176.858
576.749
140.190
459.919
25.031.339
22.669.885
12.237.930
1.182.563
9.249.392
1.352.195
139.771
1.212.424
590.603
141.744
480.076
24.022.080
28,714.275
15,972.5?2
1.398485
11.342.219
1.787.243
171.559
1.615.665
782.271
185.333
648.080
30.501.519
97.452.383
54.093.157
4.979.792
38.379.433
5.912.291
605.197
5.307.094
2.591.597
625.275
2.090.223
103.364.674
9’7,894.548
54.257.550
4978.756
3B.658.242
5.947.766
609.236
5.338.530
2,603.348
626.287
2.108.895
103.842.314
277.861
14.715
0.935
274.028
16.007
1.267
277.802
16.241
1.098
351.642
20.831
1.015
1.181~233
67.794
4.315
1,188,173
68.160
4.312
207.372
519.752
12.142
1.624.225
2.363.491
207.230
504.378
11.187
1.656.017
2.360.811
214.595
537.773
13.112
1.777.580
2.543.060
279.099
601.011
11.972
2.169.967
3.062.049
908.296
2.162.914
48.412
7.229.788
10.349.410
910.999
2.170.163
48.673
7.256.537
10.386.373
41.811
17.917.383
9.117.037
2,359.802
6,757.236
8.600.346
576.242
8.224.104
3.633.446
2.777.009
1.104.350
1.672.659
856.437
97.709
756.729
21,592.640
36.232
15,293.610
7.671.903
2,036.538
5.635.366
7.421.707
485.969
6.935.737
2.993.450
2.288.655
908.363
1.380.292
704795
80.447
624.348
18.323.292
41.941
15.891.138
8.349.678
2.159.120
6,190.557
7.541.461
493.811
7.047.650
3.128.310
2.392~189
945.077
1.447~111
736.121
84.041
652.080
19.061.389
49.684
20,128.795
10.677.636
2.759.816
7.917.820
9.451.159
618.857
6.832.302
3.693.526
2.824.823
1.108.404
1.716.419
868.703
99.196
769.507
23.872.005
169.868
69,230.926
36.016.254
9.315.276
26.700.979
33.214.672
2.174.879
31.039.793
13.448.732
10.282.675
4.066.194
6.216.481
3.166.057
361.393
2.804.664
82.849.327
17” 489
69.673.659
36.253.388
9.375.566
26.877.822
33.420.271
2.188.342
31,231.929
13.521.729
10.338.985
4.084.088
6.254.877
3,182.764
363.321
2.819.443
83,365.87?
65.556
13.529
12.994
39.033
165.914
60.612
8.552
300.633
63.287
12.475
12.356
38.456
119.640
44.116
7.066
234.110
56.763
10.680
10.909
35.175
121.256
44.326
7.373
229.718
67,635
12.138
12.766
42.712
‘190.577
54.329
7.936
320.477
253.241
48~822
49~044
155.375
597.387
203.383
30,927
1.064938
255.073
48.626
49.206
157.241
603.900
204.765
31.080
1.094.818
63.425
15.603
69.204
11.718
70.601
15.547
67.658
16.762
270.886
59.630
270.106
60.124
58.213.858
199.232.207
200,280.259
46.439.038
46,341.775
46.237,536
3.665
8.255
78.429
0.851
53.838
3.323
7.846
66.598
0.822
55.264
3.551
6.511
63.311
0.827
60.191
4.497
8.657
93.150
1.060
80.671
15.036
31.269
321.489
3.561
249.96-l
15.031
31.370
324.014
3.553
251.428
145.039
133.853
154.392
188.035
621.319
625.397
Paw 3
Supplemental Exhibi, USPS-GA
TABLE 2
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997Ql TO 1999Q4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(I” Millions Of Pieces,
(Actual,
199?Q,
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Fin,-Class Leders B Flats
(Single-Piece)
(Nonautomated Presor,)
(Automated)
(Basic Lenerr)
Wsic Flab)
(3-W, Letters,
(5.Digit Letters)
(m-Digit mto,
Gmier-Route Letters)
Fin,.Clarr Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Card*
(Single-Piece,
(Nona”,oma,ed Presod)
(Automated)
(BaBiF,
(3.Digi,)
(6Oigit)
(Carrier-Route,
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
(Actual,
1997Q2
1997Q3
1997Q4
1997PM
22,96,,?38
13.524~103
V89.262
8.049,3?4
969.082
11.231
4.586.704
2.,,5,166
48.022
318.169
1242.492
176,124
1,06?.388
506.499
159.095
401,775
75~406
185.522
123.420
37,426
24,204.230
33,966
13.906.08,
?,,34.231
1,779.793
363.814
276,211
570.161
569.607
5.354.439
545.297
53.199
1,999.352
810.062
2.046.529
6.770.850
462.305
1.296.642
2.215.488
81.187
279.479
591,509
1,825.259
2,835.823
2.269.,81
994.575
294 449
39,775
14.54?,911
?,448~?80
1.934.022
429,834
300~667
648.318
556~003
5.514.756
995 462
50.42,
2.110.410
653.837
2.014.629
?.099,131
465.256
1.486.613
2.342~645
86.124
252,232
677,087
1.789.174
2.981.304
2,274.943
946.686
279,920
88.936
468.229
109.503
,,328.254
277.554
13,112
570,335
297.250
170.003
706.462
80.362
334.858
129.010
8.922
3~217
112,297
38,995
1?.568,991
Paw 4
46.537
19,55?~112
9.560~329
2.480,924
552.869
390.553
828.43,
709~972
7.079~505
979,615
64.619
2.709.9c6
839.268
2588,198
8.996.783
589~105
1.681~40,
2.970~982
109,356
319,782
859.064
2,26?~992
3,577 152
2.729~167
,,120,?69
365,417
118.296
517.801
121~455
1.608.388
332.779
15,644
698,006
357,771
204.189
847.995
96.472
401~226
153,932
10,722
3,869
134 873
46,900
22.180~800
163,318
83.000 228
32.053.830
8,394.559
1.784,548
1.29,,?6?
2,806.25?
2,511~988
23.959.07,
2.886.597
224,395
8,899.435
2.76253
6.923,392
30.94.9696
1,969,9,6
6,307.617
10388.079
360.510
1.127.439
2.943.03,
7.952.006
13,030~848
9,9X,98
4.251.390
1.293~403
379,289
2.108,307
480.391
5,6?4~608
1,093.,41
50.768
2,508.l4.9
1294,490
728,261
3.104.350
351.764
,,489.739
566~286
38.950
14.220
490.971
172.419
76.194.093
1997GFY
Supplemental
Exhibit USPS4A
TABLE 3
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 199701 TO 1999Q4
GOVERNMENT
DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
FIRST-CLASS MAtL
First-Class Letters 6 Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated,
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nomrofit
Cl&OOlIl
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAtL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Sulk
NOnprOfit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonorofit ECR
(N&automated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel Post
(Inter-SMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DSMC)
Sound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD S
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC
MAIL
SPECtAL SERVICES
Registry
l”S”C3”CEZ
Certified
Collect-an-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
1998Q1
1998Q2
1998Q3
1998Q4
1998PFY
1998GFY
21,935.201
12.725.162
1.171.020
8.039.018
1.372.017
143.102
1.228.914
621.238
168.959
438.717
23.307.218
23,181.913
13.337.839
1.187.300
8.636.774
1.241.392
139.959
1.101.433
554.407
151.085
395.961
24.403.304
22,046.823
12.246.160
1.147.228
8.853.436
1.243.365
132.768
1,110.597
556.264
149.873
404.461
23.290.189
27.911.126
15.917.898
1.369.676
10.633.554
1.540.209
164.249
1.475.960
735.604
195.880
544478
29.551.335
95,055.063
54.227.057
4.865.224
35.962.782
5.496.982
580.078
4.916.905
2.467.513
665.777
1.783.614
100.552.045
95.445.074
511.398.337
$856.599
3B.190.138
5.522.041
582.936
'1.939.106
:!,476.015
666.889
1.796.201
10C1,967,115
259.825
13.791
1.013
253.641
14.947
1.384
254.885
15.206
1,219
321.864
19.582
1.148
1.090.215
63.507
4.763
1.095.437
63.857
4.761
207.502
522.315
13.417
1.815.495
2.358.728
201.720
503.707
11.458
1.831.933
2.348.818
213.553
531.809
12.098
1,747.061
2.504521
276.582
598.512
10.854
2.130.890
3.016.839
899.357
2.156.343
47.826
7.125.379
10.228.904
901.909
2.161.985
47.493
7,149.830
lC.261.217
40.845
17.121.612
9.362.410
2,288.121
7.076.289
7.759.201
552.973
7,206.229
3.540.224
2.824.790
998.771
1.826.019
715.433
95.814
619.820
20.702.481
34.320
14.590.234
8.249.587
2.008.450
6.243.137
6.340.647
459.395
5,881.252
2.903.866
2.341.320
808.872
1,532.447
582.547
78.485
484061
17.528.420
39.880
15.079.108
8.660.053
2,115.720
6.544.333
6.419.053
462.126
5.956.925
3.022.692
2.435.632
840.577
1.595.055
587.080
81.721
505.340
18.141.478
46.420
19,119.223
11.064.299
2.706.950
8.367.349
8.054.924
576.866
7.478.258
3.591.878
2.892.817
996.054
1.896784
699.061
97.132
601.929
22.757.521
161.064
65.910.178
37.336.349
9,115~241
28.221.108
26.573.826
2,051.162
28.522.885
13.058.861
10.494560
3.644.274
8,850.288
2.584.101
352.952
2.211.149
79.129~901
161.635
66.307.879
37.628.126
9.183.527
61.520
14.740
12.268
34492
147.432
58.437
8.242
275.631
56.738
12.721
10.782
33.235
112.605
43.876
6.645
219.885
51.289
10.887
9.462
30.940
112.439
43.707
6.713
214.147
81.008
12.350
11.061
37.597
183.755
53.331
7.068
305.162
230.555
50.698
43.594
136.263
556.230
199.362
28.668
1,014.805
43.552
137.914
581.999
200.734
28.716
1.023.275
72.747
14.692
72.842
11.028
77.327
14.345
76.123
15.939
299.039
56.004
298.093
56.427
47.006.128
44.854.247
44.513.317
58.065.492
192.439.182
28.681.754
2.059.272
26.622~482
13.122.422
3.658.460
8.892.758
2.571.205
354662
2.216.543
79.591.937
231.826
50~380
193.362.119
3.717
8.291
72.981
0.940
51.156
3.231
7.585
61.490
0.900
51.444
3.322
6.337
74.119
0.907
56.861
4.098
8.304
83.335
1.148
75.776
14.366
30.515
291.924
3,895
235.237
14.288
30.574
293.299
3.686
236.596
137.084
124.849
141.545
172.661
575.940
576.643
Page 7
Supplemental
Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 3 (continued)
WARTERLY
VOLUME FORECASTS. 199701 TO 199904
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
A&r-Rates
19!39a
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(Automated)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
Priority Mail
Express Mail
Mailgrams
PERIODICAL MAIL
Within County
Nonorofit
C&room
Regular Rate
TOTAL PERIODICAL
MAIL
STANDARD MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Enhanced Carrier Route
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonprofit Rate Bulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Automated)
Nonorofit ECR
(N&automated)
(Automated)
TOTAL STANDARD A
Parcel post
(Inter-EMC)
(Intra-BMC)
(DBMC)
Bound Printed Matter
Special Rate
Library Rate
TOTAL STANDARD B
Postal Penalty
Free-for-the-Blind
TOTAL DOMESTIC
MAIL
SPECIAL SERVICES
Registry
l”S”rance
Certified
Collect-on-Delivery
Money Orders
TOTAL SPECIAL SERVICES
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
1999PFY
1999GFY
22.197.652
12.627.187
1,051.001
8.519.464
1,391.456
146.241
1.245.215
617.091
182.369
465.754
23.589.108
23.537.796
13.263.696
1,092.887
9,181.213
1.266.107
140.801
1.125.306
554.394
144.113
426.799
24.803.903
22.497.238
12.241.730
1.056.625
9.198.883
1.295.720
136.525
1.159.195
567.712
145.765
445.717
23.792.959
28.503.646
15.977,827
1.249.931
11.276.087
1.712.167
167.574
1.544.592
751.951
190.666
601.975
30.215.812
96.736.333
54.110.241
4.450.444
38.175.648
5.665.450
591.142
5074.308
2,491.149
842.914
1.940.245
102.401.782
97,173.705
54.274.662
4.449.121
:~8,449.922
5.699.332
595.087
5.104.245
2.502.445
644.011
1.957,789
102.873.037
265.676
14.437
0.935
282.012
15.705
1.267
285.820
15.935
1.098
336.127
20.437
1.015
1.129.436
86.514
4.315
1.136.072
88.872
4.312
204.807
511.975
10.976
1.615.378
2.343.137
204.752
497,009
10.158
1.648.986
2.380.908
212.094
530.070
11.949
1.787.898
2.522.011
275.888
592.493
10.936
2,158.148
3.037.467
897.542
2.131.547
44.021
7.190.411
10.263.520
900.254
2.138.787
44~286
7.217.014
10.300.342
40.442
17.751.047
10.035.708
2,439.275
7.596.433
7.715.340
551.751
7.163.589
3.586.295
2.887.868
994460
1.893.409
698.427
96.804
801.822
21.377.784
35.046
15.152.905
8,646.230
2.103.486
6.542.744
6.506.875
485.315
6.041.360
2.953.921
2.378.603
820.398
1.558.205
575.318
79.631
495.687
18.141.872
40.567
15.747.443
9,135.779
2.228.403
6,907.376
8.611.664
472.823
6.138.841
3.086.692
2.486.540
857.438
1.628.103
601.152
83.155
517.997
18.874.702
48.057
19.948.189
11.662.276
2,848.259
8.816.016
8.285.913
592.555
7.693.359
3.844.146
2.934.470
1.011.288
1,923.181
709.876
98.117
611.559
23.640.393
164.112
68.599.585
39.479.993
9.617.423
23862.570
29.119.592
2.082.444
27,037,148
13,271,054
10.686.481
3.683.584
7.002.897
2.584573
357.708
2.226.865
82.034751
164.906
E,9.038.257
?,9.738.415
9.677.948
?,0,060.468
29.299.842
21095.334
27.204.508
13.342.748
10.744.243
3.703.736
7.040.507
2.598.505
359.579
2,238.926
Ei2.545.911
63.083
12.183
11.252
39.627
163.521
60.701
7.891
295.176
60.975
11.234
10.700
39.041
117.916
44.181
6.520
229.592
54.774
9.618
9.447
35.710
119.507
44.391
8.803
225.476
65.364
10.930
11.072
43.362
187.830
54.408
7,323
314.925
244.176
43.986
42.472
157.739
588.773
203.881
28.537
1.065.167
248.034
43.790
42.612
159.632
595~192
205.066
28.678
1.074.970
83.425
15.803
69.204
11.718
70.601
15.547
67.658
16.762
270.888
59.630
?70.106
60.124
197.296.001
198.331.746
47.965.280
45,898.178
45.783.948
57,860.596
3.099
7.987
74.204
0.834
53.811
2.810
7.596
63.010
0.806
55.237
3.003
6.307
78.823
0.810
60.162
3.803
8.390
88.132
1.039
80.632
12.715
30.280
304.189
3.490
249.843
12.711
30.382
306.557
3.482
251.307
139.936
129.459
149.105
181.996
600.496
604,440
page 8
Supplemental Exhibit USPS-6A
TABLE 4
aUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, 1997al TO ,$$$a4
GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
ARer-Rates
1998rx
199aa2
FIRST-CLASS MAlL
First-Class LeHers 8 Flats
(Si”$le-PieE)
(Nonsutomated Presoll)
(Automated)
(Basic Letters,
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Letters)
(5.Digit Letters)
(315.Digit Flats)
(Carrier-Route Letters)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single-Piece)
(Nonautomated Presod)
(Automated)
(Basic)
(3.Digit)
(5.Digit)
(Carder-Route)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAlL
21.935.2rll
12.725.182
1.171.020
8.039.018
964.594
10.955
4.622.749
2.104780
52.243
283.697
1.372.017
143.102
1.228.914
621.238
168.959
438.717
83.410
197.082
130.918
27.307
23.307.218
23,161.913
13.337.839
1.187.300
8.636.774
1.032.676
11.746
4,982.,10
2.265.77,
56.243
288.227
1.241.392
139.958
1.101.433
554.407
151.065
395.981
75.46,
191.138
116.523
22.636
24.403.304
22.048.823
12.246.180
1.147.228
8.653.436
1.029.848
11,721
4.997.379
2.269.865
56,342
288.284
1.243.365
132.788
1.110.597
566.264
149.873
404.461
76.720
188.786
118.233
22.719
23.290.189
27.911.126
15.917.895
1.359.676
10.633.554
1.259.525
14.350
6.147.718
2.789.052
69.236
353.873
1 ,M0.209
184.249
1.475.960
735.604
195.880
544476
102.794
253.724
158.168
29.79,
29.551.335
STANDARD A MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Bulk
Regular
(No”sutomated)
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Nanletters)
(Presort Letters)
(Presod Nonletters)
(Automated)
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Letters)
(5.Digit Letters)
(3BDigit Flats)
Enhanced CarrWRoute
(Automated,
(Basic LeHers)
(Basic Nonleners)
(High-Density Letters)
(High-Density Nonletters)
(Saturation Letters)
(Saturation Nonletiers)
Nonprofit Rate Sulk
Nonprofit
(Nonautomated)
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Nonletters)
(Presort Letlers)
(Presort Nonletters)
(Automated)
(Basic Leners)
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Letters)
(5.Digit Letters)
(315.Digit Flats)
Nonprofit ECR
(Automated)
(Basic Lenen,
(Basic Nonletters)
(High-Osnsity Letters,
(HighO?nSity
Nonle”er~)
(Saturation Letters)
(Saturation Nonletters)
rOTAL STANDARD A MAIL
40.645
17.121.612
9.362.410
2.286.121
569.297
436.483
733.083
645.256
7.076.289
790.114
63.989
2.402.398
,.507.151
2.312.636
7.759.201
552.973
1.007.666
2.819.982
103.889
303.989
815.857
2.164864
3.540.224
2.824.790
998.771
275.528
105.337
492.388
125.520
1.828.019
338.018
18.835
781.360
488.174
201.836
715.433
95.614
267.254
154.815
10.780
3.900
135.703
47.386
20.702.48,
34.320
14.590.234
8.249.587
2.008.450
521.424
400.910
833.237
450.860
6.243.137
683.617
58.462
2.071.352
1.437.928
1.993.778
8.340.847
459.395
874.321
2.387.479
87.255
255.950
685.262
1.810.966
2.903.866
2.341.320
808.872
199.041
79.062
421.359
109.410
1.532.447
274.884
15.907
848.099
426.398
185.159
562.547
76.465
191.819
128.250
8.929
3.235
112.476
39.352
17.528.420
39~680
15.079.106
8.860.053
2.115.720
551.704
425.322
668.742
471.951
8.544.333
720.183
59.933
2.168.800
1,477.100
2.098.317
8.419.053
462.128
676.680
2.399.804
88.488
259.990
694889
1.837.076
3.022.892
2.435.632
840.577
213.623
83.654
431.037
112.063
1.595.055
284.813
16.638
675.905
446.165
171.834
587.080
81.721
199.707
134.09,
9.335
3.384
117.625
41.197
18.141.478
46.420
19,119.223
11.064.299
2.706.950
707.368
546.287
850.753
800.581
8.357.349
922.065
76.627
2.807.15,
I.864044
2.687~262
8.054924
578.866
842.585
3.014.716
111.203
327.2tl
873.220
2.309.324
3,591.878
2.892.817
996.054
292.812
109.362
470.830
123.050
1.696.764
337.236
19.628
805.278
530.503
204.119
699.Q61
97.132
237.348
159.919
11.133
4.038
140.306
49.183
22.757.52,
1998Q3
1998aA
,998PFY
1998GFY
95.055.083
95.445.074
54.227.057
54,398,337
4.665.224
4.856,599
35.962.782
36.190.138
4.286.64,
4.310.024
48.772
49.052
20,749.956
20.887.839
9.429.468
9.489.846
234.084
235.577
,,213.881
1.218.001
5.498.982
5.522.041
580.078
582.936
4.918.905
4.939.106
2.467.513
2.476.015
665.777
668.889
1.783.614
1.796.201
338.385
340.535
828:457
818.733
523.841
526687
102.668
,02.:522
100.552.@45 100,987.1,5
161.064
65.910.178
37.336349
9.115.241
2.349.794
1.812.982
2.883.815
2.068.651
28,221.108
3.115.980
257.211
9.469.701
6.286.222
9.091.984
28.573.828
2.051.162
3.201.254
10.801.981
390.813
1.147.140
3,069.248
8,112.229
13.058.881
10.494.560
3.844274
981.002
377.614
1.815.615
470.643
8.850.286
1,232.750
70.909
2.910.840
1.893.240
742.748
2.564.101
352.952
896.129
577.075
40.17,
14.557
508.112
177.100
79.129.901
181636
66.307.“79
37,626:,25
9.183.527
2.373.658
1.832.667
2.901.795
2.075.408
28.442.699
3.137,081
259.347
9.535.364
6359.083
9.151.725
28.881.754
2.059.272
3.172.?84
10.659.702
392.975
1.153.857
3.086.174
8.157.690
13,122.422
10.551.217
3.656.460
990.551
380.481
1.816.489
470.959
6.892.758
1.237.660
7,359
2.927.755
1.909.683
746301
2.571.205
354662
893.831
580.583
40.4,09
14.648
509.041
178.231
79.591.937
Supplemental Exhibit USPS-GA
TABLE 4 (continued)
QUARTERLY VOLUME FORECASTS, ,9g7Q, TO 199904
GOVERNMENT DlSTRlSUTED TO CLASS
(In Millions of Pieces)
Afler-Rates
199901
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
First-Class Letters 8 Flats
(Single-Piece)
(Nona”tomated Presoll)
(Automated)
(Basic Letters,
(Basic Flats)
(3-Digil Leners,
(5.Digit Letters)
(3/5-Digil Flats)
(Carrier-Route Leeers)
First-Class Cards
Stamped Cards
Private Cards
(Single-Piece)
(Nonautomated Presort)
(A”tOfll~t*d)
(EmiC)
(3.Digit)
(5.Digit)
(Carrier-Route)
TOTAL FIRST-CLASS MAIL
22.197.652
12.627.187
1.051.001
8,519.464
1.004.499
11.474
4.930.634
2.234.445
55.526
282.885
1391.456
146~24,
1.245215
617.091
162.369
465.754
87.444
218.649
134.846
24.616
23.589.108
STANDARD A MAIL
Single-Piece
Regular Rate Sulk
Regular
(Nonautomated)
(&sic Letters,
(Basic Nonletters)
(Presort Lenen,
(Presort Nonletters)
(Automated)
(Basic Leners)
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Letters)
(5.Digit Letters)
(315.Digit Flats)
Enhanced Carder-Route
(Automated)
(Basic Lenem,
(Easic Nonle”e,s)
(High-Density Letters)
(High-Density Nonletterr)
(Sat”ranon Letters)
(Saturation Nonletters)
NonproRt Rate Sulk
NO”prOfit
(Nonautomated)
(Basic Letters)
(Basic Nonletters)
(Presm Letters,
(Presort Nonletters)
(Automabd)
(Basic Letters,
(Basic Flats)
(3.Digit Lenerr)
@Digit Lenen)
(315.Digit Flats)
NonproM ECR
(Automated)
(Basic Le”er5)
(Basic Nonkenen,
(High-Density Letters)
(High-Density Nodletters)
(Sat”rano” Letters)
(Saturation Nonletters)
TOTAL STANDARD A MAIL
40.442
17.751.047
10.035.708
2.439.275
638.650
497.844
764368
538.413
7.596.433
83, ,669
69298
2.535.594
1.734.850
2.425.022
7.715.340
551.75,
805.855
2,666.229
106.545
313.596
636.635
2.212.725
3.586.295
2.867.868
994.460
299.990
111.119
462.319
121.032
1 jg3.409
335.190
19.586
805.378
529.352
203.902
698.427
96.804
237.455
160.108
11.069
4.043
139.676
49.252
21.377.764
iw3a2
1999a3
1999a4
1999P.w
1999GFY
23.537.796
13.263.696
1.092.667
9.181.213
1.077.401
12.346
5,319.126
2.408.056
59.911
304372
1.266.107
140.801
1.125.306
554.394
144.113
426.799
79.684
201.728
123.241
22.146
24.603.903
22.497.236
12.241.730
1.056.625
9,198.883
1.074.053
12.352
5334.925
2.412.945
60.097
304.510
I ,295.720
136.525
1.159.195
567.712
145.765
445.717
82.77,
212.050
126,370
22.526
23.792.959
X503.646
15.977.627
1.249931
11.276.087
1.309.508
15.122
6.546.547
2358.365
73.754
372.772
1.712.167
167.574
1.544.592
751.95,
190.666
601.975
111.216
286.189
172.932
29.638
30.215.812
96.736.333
54,,,0.24,
4.450.444
38.175.648
4.465.46,
51.294
22,,31.232
10.013.633
249268
1.264.539
5.665.450
591,142
5.074.308
2.491.149
642.914
1340.245
361.115
920.615
559.369
99.126
,02,40,.782
97.173.706
54.274.662
4.449~121
38,44Q.Q22
4.492.544
51.648
22.295.230
10.086.l11
251.142
1.273,247
5,699 332
595 067
5.104 245
2,502,445
644,011
1.957.769
363.94,
930.311
564.113
99.424
102.873.037
35.046
15.152.905
8.646.230
2.103.486
551.827
432.561
667.181
461.917
6.542.744
717.840
59.615
2.191.641
1.479.262
2.094.166
6.506.675
465.315
679.612
2.435.767
89.854
264.471
705.570
1.666.085
2.953.921
2.378.603
820.398
228.326
86.743
400.594
104635
1.558.205
274.265
16.115
663.996
435.802
168.024
575.318
79.63,
195.825
132.036
9.114
3.334
114.761
40.617
18.141.672
40.567
15.747.443
9.135.779
2.228.403
565.792
46, ,669
694.113
486.829
6.907.376
761.148
63.426
2.327.085
1.534.097
2.221.620
6.611.664
472.823
690.578
2.475.070
91.304
266.738
716.955
1.896.196
3,066.692
2.485.540
857.438
245.500
92.290
411.946
107.702
1.628.103
285.354
16.823
694934
455.359
175.633
601.152
63.156
204.724
136.036
9.514
3.486
119.774
42.463
16.674.702
48.067
19.948.189
,I ,662.276
2.846.259
749.782
594.012
063.672
616.593
8.816.016
973.028
61.084
2.976.927
1.941.604
2.841.474
8.265.913
592.555
665.45,
3.101.823
114,425
336.790
896.507
2.376.363
3.644.146
2.934.470
1.011.286
326.189
118.518
447.102
117.479
1.923.181
336.179
19.638
822.108
537.642
207.415
709.676
96.117
241.764
163.024
11.222
4.117
141.262
50.150
23.640.393
164.112
66.599565
39.479.993
9.617.423
2.526.050
1366.086
2.999.534
2.105.753
29.862.570
3,283.666
273.624
10.033.246
6.669.732
9.582.281
29.119.592
2.082.444
3.041.496
10.900.689
402.128
1.163.597
3.157.668
6.351.369
13.271.054
10.686.481
3.683.584
1.102.004
408.670
1.722.061
450.649
7.002.897
1.230.967
72.366
2.986.415
1.958.156
754.974
2,584.573
357.708
879.769
593.203
40.938
14.98,
515.474
182.48,
82.034.751
164.906
69.038.257
39.736.415
9.677.!>48
2.543.194
2,002.“88
3.016.250
2.116.416
30.060.468
3.305.037
275.405
lO.l0,.77,
6.732.62,
9.645.733
29.299.842
2.095.334
3.060.323
10.968.366
404618
1.190~924
3.177.214
8.403.0.54
13342.746
10.744.243
3.703.736
1.115.339
412.634
1.724.223
451.54,
7.040.507
1.236.296
72.736
3.003.665
1.968.689
759.112
2.598.505
359.579
684.649
596.400
41.146
15.064
518.006
163.489
62.545.911
page 10
-
CERTIFICATE
3 OF SERVICE
I hereby certify that I have this day served the foregoing document upon all
participants of record in this proceeding in accordance with section ‘I2 of the Rules of
Practice.
~-.
.’ ,~.,
i
,’
i
i : -,A-Eric P. Koetting
475 L’Enfant Plaza West, SW.
Washington, D.C. 20260-q 137
(202) 268-2992; Fax -5402
October 9, 1997