Summary 1: Prefigurative expectations

Summary of Key Findings from
a Survey of Prefigurative Expectations of
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Key Statistics:
 1,000 respondents from 59 different countries completed our first online survey.
 58.9% were female; 58.5% were aged 35 years or younger.
 Americans made up the largest national group (34%), followed by New Zealanders (21%),
British (10%), Canadians (5.1%), Australians (4.5%), Germans (3.8%), Dutch (2%), and all
other nationalities at 20.4%.
 83.3% of our sample said it was ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ important to see the film.
 Many of our respondents were highly engaged in anticipatory activities in the lead up to the
film release. 93.7% had seen at least one Hobbit film trailer; 86.3% had discussed the film
with family or friends; 82% followed news coverage of the film; 80% watched a Hobbit
production video online, and 67.3% visited the official Hobbit website.
 More than half stated that the main thing motivating them to see The Hobbit was their
affection for the novel or J.R.R. Tolkien’s work (56.6%); this was followed by 25.6% who
said they were primarily fans of the Lord of the Rings films. 7.2% were fans of one of the
stars in the film, and 3.5% said they were primarily Peter Jackson fans.
 Surprisingly, very few said their primary motivation stemmed from media coverage (0.3%)
or the film trailers (1.1%).
 1.4% of our sample said they were not planning to see the film.
 56.5% planned to see the film in 3D; 19.9% did not; 19.8% didn’t know or didn’t care; 3.8%
did not answer this question.
 49.8% of respondents said they planned to see the film in high frame rate (HFR); 11% said
they would not, while 33% said they didn’t know or didn’t care either way; 6.2% did not
answer.
 The vast majority of respondents were familiar with the book from which the film was
adapted, having read it eight times on average. 91.9% had read The Hobbit novel at least
once; 5.3% of respondents said they had read it more than 30 times, with 1.2% claiming to
have read it over 100 times.
 Even more were familiar with the Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy, with the
average number of viewings being 15. Only 2% of respondents had never seen the Lord of
The Rings films; 38.2% had seen it 5-14 times, 13.5% had seen it over 30 times, and 3.1%
claimed to have seen it over 100 times.
Anticipatory Audience Clusters:
Factor analysis of responses to a series of statements about The Hobbit: An Unexpected
Journey revealed clear divisions amongst our participants in the lead up to the film’s
international release:
1. Enthusiastic Lord of the Rings film fans
The largest group of 514 respondents comprised enthusiastic and eager Lord of the Rings fans
who expressed faith in Peter Jackson’s genius as a gifted filmmaker, and affirmed his unique
ability to do justice to the complex story world of The Hobbit. This group expressed a high
level of anticipation for this film, which they’d been waiting many years for, and eagerly
looked forward to returning to the wonderful world of Middle-earth. They believed that Peter
Jackson's fundamental motivation in making another trilogy was creative rather than financial,
and that the Tolkien corpus was so extensive that there was easily enough material to justify
extending The Hobbit. This group had considerable Tolkien literacy (having read The Hobbit
on average eight times) but even greater affinity for Jackson's film adaptations of Tolkien's
work, having seen the Lord of the Rings films on average 19 times. 94% of these respondents
said it was "extremely" or "very important" to see The Hobbit.
2. Angry and disappointed Jackson critics
27 respondents expressed the opposite viewpoint and were highly critical of what they saw as
the destructive aesthetic (and political) roles played by Peter Jackson in bringing the Lord of
The Rings and The Hobbit to the big screen. This group was especially critical of the decision
to make a trilogy, which they considered purely commercially driven, and they were not
impressed by what they had seen and heard about the film so far in terms of additions and
changes that diverged from Tolkien’s original vision. They believed technological innovations
were likely to compromise the cinematic quality of The Hobbit, and expressed a lack of faith in
Jackson’s creative efforts, while also rejecting the idea that no other director could do justice to
The Hobbit. They lamented the damage done to the Tolkien corpus by what they saw as an
immature and artistically tone-deaf director catering to the lowest common denominator. Many
among this group – especially New Zealanders - criticized Jackson’s actions during The Hobbit
labour dispute, which attracted a lot of media coverage locally. Only 11% of these respondents
considered it "extremely" or "very important" to see the film and 30% were not planning to see
the film at all – despite many having a high degree of familiarity with both the book and the
Lord of the Rings film trilogy. These respondents were on average 11 years older (45 years)
than our enthusiastic fans (34 years), and half of them were New Zealanders.
3. Tolkien aficionados
Most of the 182 respondents affiliated with this viewpoint defined themselves as Tolkien fans,
and their interest in the film was primarily motivated by their deep affection for The Hobbit as
one of their favorite books (read 10 times on average). These respondents were deeply
concerned about the film’s fidelity to the original story world. They wanted the film to be a
faithful adaptation of a book they cared deeply about, but also feared they might end up
disappointed. They also harbored nostalgic memories of reading The Hobbit at a younger age,
so their view of "the spirit of the book" was bound up with their memories of childhood. For
this group, the film promised to be a major movie event and they especially looked forward to
seeing the film with family or friends. And while this group had seen the Lord of the Rings
films on average 13 times and expressed general approval for Jackson's version of the Lord of
the Rings, they did not self-identify as Lord of the Rings film fans. They were very eager to
return to Middle-earth, and 89% of them considered it "extremely" or "very important" to see
The Hobbit.
4. Celebrity followers
A small group of 17 individuals constitutes our fourth group. All were female, and their
average age was 40 years. This group did not primarily care about Tolkien's novel, The Hobbit,
although members had read it on average once. Their exposure to the Lord of the Rings film
trilogy was marginally higher, having seen it on average, twice. They strongly disagreed that
The Hobbit was one of their favorite books. Rather, their primary interest in The Hobbit
related to their affection for one of the film’s stars. Celebrity followers were very happy that
one of their favourite actors featured in the film (most often, Richard Armitage), and strongly
affirmed the casting decisions. The New Zealand landscapes and the excitement of being part
of a major cinematic event were also key attractions for this group.
5. Anxious investors
A group of 36 respondents were anxious investors, 89% of whom were either New Zealanders
or resident in New Zealand. They were for the most part neither Tolkien nor Lord of the Rings
fans; their exposure to the book and film trilogy was very low compared to groups 1 and 3. On
average, anxious investors had read The Hobbit twice, and seen the earlier film trilogy three
times. Anxious investors were very concerned about the evolving reputation of the film and
how this might influence its commercial success. They agreed strongly that the film would
have positive economic benefits locally, and could thus understand the rationale for
government support. But they remained concerned about the Hobbit labour issue, and fully
agreed that the conversion of The Hobbit into a trilogy was primarily aimed at increasing box
office takings. This group was sceptical about the hype and speculation surrounding the film,
and while they strongly disagreed that Peter Jackson was a sloppy director, they moderately
disagreed that only Peter Jackson could properly bring The Hobbit to the screen.
For a fuller discussion of findings from this first stage of the project, please see:
Davis, C.H., Michelle, C., Hardy, A. and Hight, C. (2014) Framing audience prefigurations of The Hobbit: An
Unexpected Journey: The roles of fandom, politics and idealized intertexts. Participations: Journal of Audience &
Reception Studies, 11(1): 50-87.