Climate
Cli
t change
h
adaptation
d t ti for
f
the Murray River
Max Finlayson
y
Institute for Land,, Water & Society
y
Charles Sturt University
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Projected temperatures during 21st C are
much higher than at any time during the
last 1000 years (from IPCC)
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Southern basin:
> Hotter
> Drier
> More droughts
> Large
g floods?
Source: Arnell, N. W. (2004). Climate
change and global water resources: SRES
emissions and socio-economic scenarios.
Global Environmental Change 14 (2004)
31 52
31–52.
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Projected impacts
Global change, incl climate change
will affect wetlands - biological
responses to pollutants, water
regimes, invasive species, physical
disturbance climate variables …
disturbance,
Wetlands important biodiversity,
global water cycle,
cycle carbon storage/
cycling, and ecosystem services;
prone to impacts of climate change
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Two types
yp of human
responses to climate change
Mitigation – actions to reduce the magnitude
of our contribution to climate change.
change Includes
strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources
and
d emissions
i i
and
d enhance
h
sinks
i k ((e.g. organic
i
wetlands – peatlands, coastal systems).
Adaptation
daptat o - act
actions
o su
undertaken
de ta e to reduce
educe tthee
adverse consequences of climate change, as
well as to harness any beneficial opportunities
opportunities.
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Responses for Murray
river and wetlands
Climate change not yet incorporated into the
policies …. it will be….
water allocation p
Mitigation – not yet seen as important …..
wetland (agricultural) carbon emissions
Adaptation - interest in adaptation options
under climate change is high through various
research and NRM initiatives
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M
Murray
river
i
and
d wetlands
l d
Current ecological condition - river and
wetlands have been the subject of a lot of
contention
t ti and
d policy
li responses in
i recentt
years – Water Act, EPBC, Ramsar, Senate
Future p
pressures - river and wetlands are
subject to further change as a consequence of
current water planning decisions and the
impact of climate change – do we know what
i going
is
i on with
ith the
th river???
i ???
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Societal responses
Since 2003 responding to over exploitation and
climate-induced
li t i d
d drying
d i – Environmental
E i
t l Flows
Fl
and then Environmental Works and Measures
Expert Reference Panel options for reallocating
water
t – 350 GL tto 4
4,000
000 GL
GL: Living
Li i Murray
M
500 GL
for 6 iconic sites
Also included $150M over 7 years to manage
water
t
- led
l d tto EWM as engineering
i
i interventions
i t
ti
proposed to meet ecological targets. Extended to
2014 with
ith $280M
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National Water Initiative 2004 – return of over
allocated
ll
t d river
i
systems
t
to
t sustainable
t i bl levels
l
l &
provision of environmental flows; during drought
water
t plans
l
suspended;
d d some water
t for
f iirrigation
i ti
– planning failure or political response?
Water Act 2007 – Federal role water management
i MDB & Basin
in
B i Plan;
Pl
reallocation
ll
ti figures
fi
7,000
7 000
to 3-4,000 GL and 2,750 GL and intent to reduce
thi reallocation
this
ll
ti th
through
h savings
i
ffrom EWM
EWMs
and water efficiencies
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MDB Water Plan – extent of conservation
achievable is unclear - no quantified ecological
targets; existing floodplain inundation and
climate change models not applied
Parliamentary enquiry recommended a focus on
EWM and water investments to recover water.
Further $6 M to investigate EWMs
An increasing emphasis on EWMs – how have
these fared compared to potential ecosystembased options
options…..????
????
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Murray river / wetlands
Societal responses - may not sit
comfortably with some of the ecological
issues, or be robust enough to deal with
g MDB water plan
p
the river as a whole ((e.g.
open to legal challenge?)
Current adaptation - measures may be
under developed
developed, overly
overly-narrow
narrow or mal
maladaptation; could reduce not enhance the
resilience
ili
off wetlands
tl d
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Ecological
E
l i l research
h has
h b
been stepped
t
d up
– lagging
gg g behind even though
g not a new
problem; suitability or even relevance of
baselines being queried; funds not going
to other issues (?)
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Murray-Darling Basin
Major food production –
profitable irrigation
Highly
g y regulated
egu ated river
ve –
dams, barrages
Water – over allocated
for irrigation
g
/ 70%
% ((?))
Highly
g y variable rainfall
– drought and flood
16 Ramsar wetlands –
insufficient info on ecocharacter / responses
MDB rivers / wetlands
(MDBA)
Highly saline sediments –
flushing flows needed to
export salt
Sulfidic sediments –
continuously inundated to
avoid oxidation
Mouth of Murray – at risk
of closure with low flows
5.7 M hectares wetlands
16 R
Ramsar sites
i
– 636,000
636 000 h
ha
Changed water regimes,
incl less flooding of upper
f
floodplain
zones
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River / wetlands
Health of river and wetlands, including
ecosystem services depends on specific
specific, large
and variable environmental flows
Development of agric altered seasonal flow
patterns created instream barriers
patterns,
barriers, and reduced
volume of water available to maintain wetlands
Artificially low river flows / drought caused
ecological crises – cyanobacteria blooms
blooms, high
salinity, acidification, desiccation of Lower
Lakes deaths of floodplain trees,
Lakes,
trees declines in fish
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Ri
River
and
d wetlands
l d
Future pressures - river and wetlands are
j to further change
g as a consequence
q
of
subject
current water planning decisions and the
impact of climate change.
Managing river/wetlands under a highly
variable climate and flow regime may become
more difficult
iffi
… ecological
i character already
changed and changing further (?)
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The variability / uncertainty factor
MDBA
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The variability / uncertainty factor
MDBA
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Drought – less rainfall,
rainfall warmer temperatures
temperatures,
increased evaporation
Adaptation
Interest in adaptation options under climate
change is high through various research and
NRM initiatives / how to cope with variability
and uncertainty
Many “adaptation measures” already being
implemented, but not within a climate change
scenario; possible to adapt management
activities to accommodate climate change and
build on existing experience and success
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Ecosystem-based
approaches
– restoring health of ecosystems by reducing nonclimate impacts to increase resilience (sustainable
development / wise use) to climate change
Supply
pp y side responses
p
– sourcing
g additional water
or increasing storage to manage variability to
maintain services
Demand management – uses water more efficiently
to produce the same services
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Adaptation options:
Technological
T h l i l adaptation
d
i options
i
oEnvironmental works and measures
oThermal
Th
l pollution
ll i controll
oHabitat connectivity
Managerial
M
i l adaptation
d t ti options
ti
oEnvironmental flows
oRestoration
R t ti off riparian
i
i habitats
h bit t
oGeomorphic restoration
oManagement
M
t off exotic
ti species
i – willow,
ill
carp
oAssisted migration
Policy
P li adaptation
d t ti options
ti
oConservation of gaining reaches
oConservation
C
ti off more resilient
ili t h
habitats
bit t
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River restoration for future climate change
- Evolution – let it go
- Novel ecosystems assisted translocation
- Reserve design
g the line – riparian
p
restoration
- Holding
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Free-flowing
F
fl i rivers
i
and
d th
those with
ith
a favourable aspect?
Low risk climate change adaptation, 9th May 2012
Dr Jamie Pittock
Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU
[email protected]
p
@
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Non volumetric environmental works and
Non-volumetric
measures: reoperation of regulated rivers
Thermal pollution in NSW
NSW.
Weirs in NSW
NSW.
Source: NSW Dept Industry and Innovation
Source: NSW Dept Industry and Innovation
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28
Fish passages – some success with these
M
Murray
river
i
and
d wetlands
l d
Social and institutional issues - may not
sitit comfortably
f t bl with
ith some off th
the ecological
l i l
issues, or current institutional arrangements
for the river as a whole. .
Conclusions – adaptation measures may
be overly-narrow or mal-adaptation that
can reduce the resilience of wetlands
MDBA
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Environmental works and
measures
Physical structures for increasing the frequency
of inundation of iconic wetlands / floodplains
Ample evidence that EWMs enable flooding of
small part of targeted sites
sites, but minimal amount
of total wetland area
Subject to EPBC Act – cite concerns about biotic
impacts; assumed that benefits outweigh risks;
do not address likelihood of impact on nontargeted wetlands; do not quantify risks
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- Reverting
R
ti to
t engineering-led
i
i
l d water
t supply
l and
d
demand management
- Not generally deployed with information from
climate
li t change
h
studies
t di – opportunity
t it to
t do
d this
thi
- Opportunity
O
t it costs
t and
d path
th dependency
d
d
could
ld be
b
high - resources could better conserve freshwater
ecosystems
t
if redirected
di
t d to
t purchase
h
flood
fl d
easements, wetlands, and water for ecosystemb
based
d approaches
h
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Complex, engineered adaptive systems involve
Complex
high risk of institutional failure – there are
alternatives for greater environmental benefits and
resilience to climate change….
Is It based on a beguiling notion that we can make
the water go further
further, and avoid further buy
buy-backs?
backs?
Risks – overly narrow
narrow, will fail if low thresholds
exceeded, or maladaptive if unanticipated costs or
perverse impacts
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There is a case for some EWMs but top-down
top down and
short-term measures can quickly use available
resources and diminish community support
Need to address long-term
long term threats – not just
short-term or emergency situations
Devolution of responsibility for EWMs for locally
appropriate adaptation to local community – an
opportunity to grasp, not miss…..
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Coorong and
Lakes
Alexandrina and
Albert
Ramsar site 1985. Meets 8 of
the 9 criteria for listing
Ecological
co og c character
c
c e at listing
s g
already changing adversely –
land/water use / baseline?
From Gross et al. 2011. Final report
to the NCCARF.
Major
j intervention – barrages
g
retain freshwater and prevent
saltwater movingg upstream;
p
;
local inflows diverted
Management plan does not
affect catchment water
allocation - dams on river
Coorong & Lower Lakes
EWMs back to early European occupation;
barrages in 1935
1935-40;
40; perverse consequences
leading to more engineering
- Draining wetlands in SE reduced flows to
Coorong and redesign of system to drainwater
back into Coorong
- upstream water withdrawals required barrages
to hold back sea
- fish ladders neded to restore fish passage
- inadequate outflows needed dredging to
maintain a channel to sea
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Long established
g
structures – changed
the ecological
character and turned
lakes into a fresh
system rather than an
estuarine system
Ramsar reference
condition
di i based
b
d on
freshwater
characteristics in
lakes; seen as the
legal ref condition
Low environmental flows and
drought led to drying/hypersalinity
in Lakes; further works
No regrets measures included fencing riparian
areas and replanting native vegetation
More divisive in community were
- freshwater pipelines for water supply
- bund walls fragmented lake
- threat of acidification- liming/planting
Unimplemented measures – more bunds, canals
and p
pumping,
p g, and flooding
g with sea water
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Most inflow
occurs via the
Murray River
Drought years
– no outflow
to ocean
Water level
behind
barrages fell
to record low
From Gross et al. 2011. Final report
to the NCCARF.
July 2010
From MDBA
M
March
h 2011
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Flow to ocean stopped during
drought years; dredging to
keep it open to allow saltwater
into area downstream of
barrages
Contentious proposal to allow saltwater into dry
f
former
fresh
f
h areas to
t cover acid
id soils
il – buffering
b ff i
and salinisation issues; review of options ….
Drought and upstream diversions
•reduced water levels below sea level
•exposed acid sulfate soils and salinity
increased drastically (>200 g/L)
•reduced populations of waterbirds –
confounded by loss of habitat elsewhere
•reduced macroinvertebrates, fish and
aquatic macrophytes (Ruppia sp)
•calcareous
l
masses off estuarine
t
i tubeworms
t b
killed freshwater turtles
Acid sulfate soils
-unprecedented, ph
<3.5
- large areas of
dry/exposed lake bed
Acid sulfate soils
Considered the main
management issue;
treating effect rather
than cause … $2B
– added carbon by
planting
l ti cereall crops; or
limestone to neutralise;
or by
b bunding
b di
to
t keep
k
freshwater to cover the
soils
il
Acidic conditions –
increase of mass of
calcareous tubeworms
– weighing down and
drowning tortoise
Decline in
waterbird
species from
1985
-Change
Change in food
sources as
salinity increased
and water depth
decreased
Overall driver is
less freshwater
inflows
Paton et al 2010
2011 – very high flows; water running
through the mouth; acidic areas covered by
freshwater; salt not being washed out; biota
recovering
i … just
j t add
dd water?
t ?
If we wantt to
t iinvestt in
i managing
i the
th wetland
tl d
we need to invest in better data not just panic
when it goes awry? Get people on side - not
manage in isolation.
A genuinely anticipatory and long-term approach to
management of the Region with climate change is
required and includes dedicated institutions to develop,
develop
implement and adaptively manage long-term plans
covering the two major long-term drivers of change in
the Region: inflows from the Murray-Darling Basin
and ongoing climate change impacts
impacts.
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Adaptation would be enhanced by effective
implementation of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands
and the assessment and implementation of new
adaptation measures
measures.
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Thank you
You cannot solve the problem with
the same kind of thinking that
created the problem. Albert Einstein
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