Australian Food Security Dilemmas
comparing nutritious production scenarios and their
environmental, resource and economic tensions
in:
Food Security in Australia
Graham Turner, Kirsten Larsen, Chris Ryan, and Mark Lawrence
CSIRO, Melbourne University, Deakin University
Oct 2012
Can we eat a nutritious diet and be sustainable?
1. Assume a nutritious diet
not the present diet
2. Workshop future strategies
for sustainably supplying this diet
3. Three scenarios defined
by grouping strategies
4. Simulate these futures
using a national economy-environment framework
5. Compare the outcomes:
Food surplus or deficit
Environment / resources --- water, oil, fertiliser, emissions
Economy --- employment, trade deficit, GDP per capita
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Nutritious diet based on the
Australian Guide to Healthy Eating
Vegetables
Cereal
Fruit
Meat
Dairy
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Common assumptions across the scenarios
Population growth
36 million by 2050 (ABS ‘medium’)
Climate change
impacts
global growth with fossil fuels (A1FI);
GHG mitigation
reductions by 2030
Adjustment:
Control:
DIY:
only impacts on water simulated
20%
80%
90%
Oil availability
declining Australian production
(Geoscience Australia)
Fertiliser availability
assume Australian production
increases 2-3x
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Three scenarios defined by workshops for food
supply and environmental sustainability
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Scenarios differ quantitatively in dealing with many
issues
Food source
Adjustment is global;
Control is national;
DIY is State based.
Continued waste in Adjustment; least in DIY
Land use
poor cropping converted to forest with different uses
(bio-energy for Adjustment, carbon for DIY);
Adjustment continues urban expansion, DIY contracts
Irrigation
considerable area reduction provides environmental water;
high ongoing efficiencies, especially in Adjustment
Cropping
high ongoing efficiencies, especially in Adjustment to
increase production; Control & DIY to ease pressure
Electricity
significant efficiency gains in production and end-use;
Adjustment uses a mix of fossil-fuel and renewable; DIY
transitions to all renewable and less consumption
Transport
Control transitions to electric vehicles and mostly rail freight;
DIY relies heavily on (1st generation) bio -fuels;
Adjustment uses a mix of fuels and modes
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Simulate the physical activity of the national economy,
and the impacts on the environment
Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)
Conservation of mass/energy
Grounded with historical data
Transparent assumptions and data
Quantitative exploration of scenarios
Free of ideology
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Net food availability is a challenge in each scenario
Adjustment
Control
DIY
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Net food availability is a challenge in each scenario
• Significant tensions in providing a surplus of the core foods,
particularly fruit and vegetables, nuts, cereal grains (if biofuels are
used) and milk (due to transfer of land to F&V)
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Other environmental and resource security
challenges exist across the scenarios
Water
Climate
Fertiliser
Oil
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Economic outcomes for the scenarios
GDP per capita
Net foreign debt relative to GDP
Unemployment
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No scenario produces ideal security
Adjustment
Control
DIY
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Ecosystem Sciences
Dr Graham Turner
Phone: +02 6246 4389
Email: [email protected]
Thank you
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: [email protected] Web: www.csiro.au
Australian Food Security Dilemmas