Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
Commenced Feb 2010
Supervision: Digby Race
Barney Foran
Top Up Scholarship, Sustainable Ecosystems -Mark Howden
OVERVIEW
PHILOSOPHICAL Redefining & exploring the concept  Redundancy
Stability, Predictability and Integration
EXPLANATORY
Systems analysis: Climate change, Energy, Water,
Waste, Food and Fibre and Human Well-Being
MESSY OR WICKED
PROBLEMS
PREDICTIVE
FARM FORESTRY +
VEGETATION IN
S.E. AUSTRALIAN
2050
LIVEABLE LANDSCAPES
FOR
FUTURE GENERATIONS
FARM FORESTRY
Farm
Forestry
Alone or in
Partnership
Trees and
Vegetation
• Commitment of resources
• Landholders and managers
• Design, Establishment, and/or
Management
•Conservation/Production
•Grasslands to Production forestry
•Adaptation/Mitigation
Adapted from Rowan Reid
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
MESSY OR WICKED
PROBLEMS
1) ANTHROPOGENIC
CLIMATE CHANGE
Crossing the CO2 threshold –
(2009)389ppm
 450, 550ppm, More?
Feedback processes.
Earth was ice-free until CO2
level dropped below
450ppm. (Rockström et.al 2009)
South-East Rainfall
change 2050 Summer
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
MESSY OR WICKED
PROBLEMS
Climate Change
 Worse
2) ASSET DEPLETION
4.4 t/ha/yr
NLWA 2002
2022
Gas-2044
Coal-2100?
Over-allocated
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
3) SOIL, WATER,
AIR DEGRADATION
(WASTE)
Nitrogen and Phosphorous cycle
Soil and water acidification
Fertilizer 120 Million
tonnes of N2 /p.a.
->Radiative Forcing
Eutrophication
water-ways
Phosphorus->Anoxic
Oceans -> Past extinctions
Carbon
S.E. Australian Agriculture
Harper and Gilkes (1994)
Major Contributor
Hydrophobicity
MESSY OR WICKED
PROBLEMS
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
MESSY OR WICKED
PROBLEMS
4) LOSS OF HABITAT
AND BIODIVERSITY
MAIN DRIVERS
TIPPING POINTS
Species abundance - 2050
9% and 17%
Land Use Change
Global Warming
(Alkemade et al. 2009)
Nutrient
loading
Shift in Spatial
distribution
1.
PositivePoleward
feedback loops
100km’s
2.
conditions
Threshold
Climate Regulation
3.
Long
lasting, hardand
to reverse
MDB
– Biodiversity
4.
Time lagcondition of rivers
ecological
“…the outlook is bleak.”
(Lake and Bond 2007)
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
MESSY OR WICKED
PROBLEMS
5) POPULATION AND
COMMUNITY
Population
±?
Externalities
Community
6) THE INFINITE DRIVE
OF ORGANIC BEINGS TO
Malthus ????
ACQUIRE RESOURCES.
Alternative
Resources
Traditional
Green - safe
operating
space.
Redestimate of
the current
position for
each
variable.
Source: Rockström et.al, 2009.
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
FARM FORESTRY/VEGETATION
IN S.E. AUSTRALIA
LIVEABLE LANDSCAPES FOR
FUTURE GENERATIONS
EMERGING NEXUS-2050
CLIMATE
HUMAN WELL-BEING
ENERGY
FOOD AND FIBRE
WATER
WASTE
My Approach
Systems
Redundancy
Emerging Nexus 
Wicked Problems
Farm Forestry
International
Local / MTG
Governance
Wayne Deans –ILWS
Working Title: Building Australia's Future Landscapes within the emerging
nexus of climate, energy, water, waste, food and fibre and human well-being.
International
farm
forestry
•NO
Intergenerational
Forestry
ForestryHistorical
Science
Policy
Non Industrial Private Forestry
International
Cultural
Country
•History of antagonism with native
veg.
(Ownership)
•A Pantheon
of failed
best-bet
options
ForestryHistorical
Policy
Incentives
Science
Sweden
51%
Australia
Cultural
•Paucity of successful examples so farBUT THEY
ARE
OUT
THERE
IF
YOU
LOOK!
Finland
54%
Farm
Commercial
Forestry workers
Forestry
•Arguments
which
discount
FF
are
misplaced
StateNorway
forests
Transport
Benefits
80%
“We
don’t have
the
markets!”
across
National forest
Mills and
Scales
reserve
processing
“Too
long for economic return!”
Japan
57%
maintained
MTG
“Too far from markets!”
U.S.A
73%
“Unsure about harvest rights!” (Legitimate concern)
Research Questions
Macro
1) What does a transition to a partial bio-mass economy achieve ?
2) How will this impact on the wicked problems?
3) How does redundancy operate across scales in achieving this?
Meso
1) What are the systemic accelerators and retardants?
2) What are the institutional arrangements and attitudes?
3) What are the biophysical, social, ecological and economic
determinants?
Micro
1) What evidence is there at the farm level for such a transition?
What is missing?
2) How does a biomass farm maintain productive farming output
and provide ecosystem services?