The Science Foresight Project
Using Experts Selected by Co-citation Analysis
December 2001
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
A Dstl - SPRU Collaboration
Investigators
Dr. Sylvan Katz – SPRU
Ms. Sally Stewart –Dstl
Advisors
Prof. Ben Martin – SPRU
Dr. Theresa Gow – Dstl
December 2001
© Dstl 2001
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Project Aims
To design and assess a simple, objective
and cost-effective technique to gather
information about emerging short and longterm research developments, primarily in
the physical and engineering sciences,
using experts selected through co-citation
analysis.
December 2001
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
General Activities
1. Select experts using co-citation techniques
2. Design questionnaire and prepare web site
3. Administer questionnaire and gather predictions
4. Categorize and summarize predictions and
prepare final report
December 2001
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What is a Co-citation?
1985 – 1998 Publications
Indexed in ISI databases
A
B
C
1999 Publications
Index in ISI databases
December 2001
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1999 ISI Research Fronts database
• Papers selected from more than 15 million publications
indexed in ISI databases
• Contains 160,964 co-cited documents published
between 1985 and 1998 that were co-cited by papers
published in 1999
• Each co-cited paper was cited at least 6 times
• Clustered into 22,866 groups containing between 2 and
50 documents
• 146,566 co-cited publications were indexed in the
Science Citation Index (SCI)
December 2001
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Pairs, Clusters and Research Fronts
• The greater the frequency of co-citation of a given pair, the greater
the likelihood that it defines an established or emerging topic or
subspecialty
• One pair can usually identify a small research front, but active
research fronts generally involve several interrelated co-citation pairs
• The larger the number of pairs included in a cluster, the broader the
scope
• A paper is placed in one and only one cluster
• A large cluster ≈ Research Front
• Clusters named using keywords:
• ultrasound contrast agents; myocardial perfusion; 2nd harmonic
imaging; improved myocardial contrast; and contrast
December 2001
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Schematic: Cluster Q Research Front
Research Front
A–E
Co-cites = 2
G–E
Co-cites = 1
December 2001
© Dstl 2001
A–B
A–C
Co-cites = 5
Co-cites = 8
A–D
C–D
Co-cites = 3
Co-cites = 6
D–F
Co-cites = 2
H–F
Co-cites = 1
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Selecting the Experts
• Selection technique had to be objective, robust and repeatable
• No manual selection and repeatable by others
• Sixty-six science and engineering fields of potential interest were
identified and an appropriate number of clusters in each field were
determined
• MOD Technology Strategy Issue #3; Technology Taxonomy Issue #5
• Approximately 500 of the most representative clusters were selected
based on a well-defined set of rules
• The most highly cited paper published in the 1990s was chosen from
each cluster and the authors of these papers were used to prepare
the list of experts
December 2001
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Rules for Selecting Clusters and Papers
• Determine number of
• Papers, P, in each SCI field in Research Fronts database
• Papers & citations for paper in each SCI field in each cluster
• Clusters, C, needed to represent a SCI field
• Approx. 500 papers required for this project
• C = 0.0055 P and if C = 1 then set C = 2
• For each SCI field
• Select clusters with the largest number of papers in field
• in case of tie select cluster with most highly cited paper in field
•
Remove redundant clusters from list of all clusters
• Produced 483 clusters for this study (481 used)
• Select most highly cited paper in each cluster irrespective
of SCI field
December 2001
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Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Example of a cluster
ISI Cluster ID 550B1F45:
EPSON LIQUID-CRYSTAL TELEVISION; PATTERN-RECOGNITION; PSEUDORANDOM
PHASE-ONLY MODULATION; BINARY PHASE-ONLY FILTERS; LIQUID-CRYSTAL TV
JUDAY, RD et al, APPL OPTICS, 1993, OPTIMAL REALIZABLE FILTERS AND
THE MINIMUM EUCLIDEAN DISTANCE PRINCIPLE (18 cites, 9 co-cites)
•LAUDE V et al, APPL OPTICS, 1994, MULTICRITERIA CHARACTERIZATION OF CODING
DOMAINS WITH OPTIMAL FOURIER SPATIAL LIGHT-MODULATOR FILTERS
(14 cites, 9 co-cites)
•SOUTAR C et al, 1994, OPT ENG, MEASUREMENT OF THE COMPLEX TRANSMITTANCE
OF THE EPSON LIQUID-CRYSTAL TELEVISION (11 cites, 6 co-cites)
•COHN RW et al, APPL OPTICS, 1994 APPROXIMATING FULLY COMPLEX SPATIAL
MODULATION WITH PSEUDORANDOM PHASE-ONLY MODULATION (6 cites, 4 co-cites)
•COHN RW et al, APPL OPTICS, 1996, PSEUDORANDOM PHASE-ONLY ENCODING OF
REAL-TIME SPATIAL LIGHT MODULATORS (6 cites, 4 co-cites)
December 2001
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Author’s comments
“[delete name] did a post-doctoral fellowship with me, and I
have worked with [delete name] in two fashions (a contractor to
NASA and as a NASA-funded university researcher). [delete
name] reviews papers for me, and his PhD advisor ([delete
name], who is a long-time colleague and friend) was the coauthor with [delete name]. ”
“Directly to your question, the co-citation data indeed make
sense, since in the case of [delete name] work my 1993 paper is
a quantitative approach to a similar problem that he has been
working at on a more ad hoc basis, and my 1993 paper is cited
in the [delete name] et al. paper as a somewhat different
approach to a similar problem. ”
December 2001
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Contacting the Experts
• 2120 authors were listed on 481 papers;
• First named author corresponds to first named institution;
• First author used as contact author;
• Contact details for 424 of 481 authors located with nearly
100% certainty using Internet resources;
• Invitations to participate in project by mail
• Follow-up communication primarily by email
December 2001
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Questionnaire
1. Background information - Current contact details, employer
and research interests, etc;
2. Emerging developments in science - descriptions of
emerging short and long-term development; multiple choice
technological spin-offs question;
3. Factors affecting developments - multiple choice questions
to determine how factors such as funding and collaboration
are likely to affect the emerging developments;
4. Driving forces in science - ranking questions to determine
how specific driving forces, such as availability of resources
and developments in instrumentation, are likely to affect the
emerging developments.
December 2001
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Expert Demographics
• Responses from authors of 114 papers
• 23.7% of selected papers
• International community of experts
• number proportional to size of science system
• Senior people
• professor 62%, senior scientist 22%
• 36 – 55 years of age
• In research field for 11 to 30 years
• Basic physical and engineering science research
• basic 63%, applied 23%, strategic 13%
• Reside primarily in academic institutions
• academic 73%, government 10%, industry 7%
December 2001
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Summarizing Predictions
• Extract one or two sentences that appeared to
summarise the main focus of each prediction
• Group summaries into 10 emerging development
categories having common themes
• No attempt was made to judge, criticise or interpret a
prediction
• The overview that preceded each summary table
collated some of the predictions into a coherent structure
to give the reader a sense of the scope, diversity and
general impact of the predicted emerging developments
December 2001
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Emerging Development Categories
Category
Short-Term
Predictions
Long-Term
Predictions
Atomic & Stellar Matter
17 (9%)
11 (10%)
Biology & Biosphere
5 (3%)
5 (5%)
Biomedical & Clinical
32 (17%)
17 (15%)
Chemical & Materials
32 (17%)
20 (18%)
Computers & Robotics
8 (4%)
4 (4%)
Genomics & Proteomics
7 (4%)
5 (5%)
Mathematical & Computational
25 (13%)
11 (10%)
Molecular Matter
20 (11%)
12 (11%)
Nano Science & Technology
21 (11%)
12 (11%)
Optical & Quantum
23 (12%)
14 (13%)
TOTAL
190
111
December 2001
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Nano Science & Technology
ID Area
Field
110 Biomedical Engineering
23 Biophysics
Biomolecular
Materials
20
Inorganic
Chemistry
47 Engineering Semiconductor
Technology
54 Materials
Science
2 Physics
48
Ceramics
Condensed
Matter
Experimental
Condensed
Matter Physics
December 2001
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Prediction
Light powered nanotechnology - pulsed lasers and light sources provide a means of
confining thermal energy and stress energy into small structures. They could
provide an energy source for nanomachines, for example to switch activity on and
off.
Micromachines inspired by non-equilibrium cellular machines.
How to get from the nanoworld to the real world: connecting nanostructures to
microstructures.
Nanobiotechnology: nantechnological devices that enhance control/monitoring of
biologic processes (e.g. DNA analysis for every patient) and proteomics aided by
nanotechnology.
Biomimetics and the incorporation of biological aspects into material science will be
used in nanotechnology and miniaturisation providing materials with novel
properties.
Carbon nanotubes used in flat panel displays, cathode ray/microwave tubes, and
any device using electron field emission technology. Nanodevices and
nanoelectronics based on the nano-transistor. Nano electrodes in living entities are
possible.
An increasingly interdisciplinary approach toward science; individual fields will lose
much of their identity; synergistic approaches, such as nanoscience, will dominate.
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Overall Emerging Trends
• Developments in mathematical and computational methods
could underpin continued progress in many research areas.
• A general drive to simulate phenomena from first principles.
• An increasing need for new methods that can efficiently handle
many entities, many variable problems, particularly to facilitate
research that explores dynamic non-linear systems, selfassembly processes and complex mesoscale organisation.
• Nano Science & Technology and Optical & Quantum
predictions show promise to produce profound computational
advances e.g. all optical computers and networks, nanoscale
and quantum computing devices.
December 2001
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Factors Affecting Development
Funding
Response
No response
Increase
Decrease
Stay the same
Cannot predict
General Applied
1
1
66
68
6
8
38
11
34
11
Graduate
Students
1
44
32
34
11
Collaboration
InterIntraIntersectoral sectoral national
1
1
2
84
87
94
3
1
2
30
4
28
5
20
4
Interdisciplinary
3
94
0
19
6
• optimistic that funding and all types of collaboration will increase
• less optimistic that the number of graduate students will increase.
December 2001
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Driving Forces Affecting Development
1 – not important
Area
Items
Human Resources Grad. Students
Post Docs
Technicians
Mathematical
Techniques
Computer
Algorithms
Hardware
Data Visual.
Materials
Organic
Inorganic
Instrumentation
Sensitivity
Selectivity
Resolution
Stability
Data Acquisition
5 – very important
1
1
1
8
6
6
5
5
25
22
13
15
13
13
12
Rating*
2 3 4
3 17 31
3 11 36
15 36 26
16 36 36
12 21 41
13 27 37
17 35 27
14 16 24
14 15 25
7 10 34
6 18 32
4 13 32
9 13 33
7 21 33
5
64
66
33
23
37
35
32
36
38
52
44
54
47
43
Weighted
Average Rank
4.3
2
4.4
1
3.5
11
3.5
12
3.8
6
3.7
9
3.6
10
3.3
14
3.4
13
3.9
4
3.7
8
4.0
3
3.8
5
3.8
7
• Post docs, graduate students, improved instrumentation and
computer algorithms & hardware important to achieving predictions
December 2001
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Driving Forces and Disciplines
Area
Human Resources
Mathematical
Computer
Materials
Instrumentation
Astronomy,
Earth &
Space
Science and
Physics
Items
Graduate Students
4.3
Post Docs
4.5
Technicians
3.6
Techniques
3.5
Algorithms
4.0
Hardware
4.0
Data Visualisation
3.6
Organic
2.6
Inorganic
3.4
Sensitivity
3.9
Selectivity
3.6
Resolution
4.1
Stability
3.9
Data Acquisition
3.9
December 2001
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Biomedical, Engineering
Biophysics & Materials
and Clinical Science
Medicine
4.3
4.6
3.9
3.1
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.5
4.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.7
4.0
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.6
Chemistry Computer
Science and
Mathematics
4.0
4.2
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.6
4.0
3.9
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.6
4.0
2.9
4.1
4.1
3.6
2.7
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
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Difficulties and Remedies
• Minor technical difficulties; most easily corrected
• Internet and Web standards will make administering
secure on-line questionnaires less difficult
• Knowledgeable resources to assist with preparation
of summaries and conduct interviews
• More time allowed for experts to respond
• Consider use of electronic media for final report
December 2001
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Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence
Summary
• Repeatable techniques that objectively identify experts
• A low cost, time efficient foresight method that can be
used in an on-going manner to collect and report, in an
unbiased fashion, potential emerging research
developments
• Predictions provide an unbiased overview of potential
developments in research fronts
• Predictions can be used to aid scientists and engineers
to keep them abreast of developments
December 2001
© Dstl 2001
Dstl is part of the
Ministry of Defence