AkronBuckeyePoll:
2015OhioBallotIssues
RayC.BlissInstituteofAppliedPolitics
UniversityofAkron
ExecutiveSummary
The2015AkronBuckeyePollinvestigatespublicopinionamongregisteredvotersaboutthreeproposed
constitutional amendments on the 2015 general election ballot: Issue 1 (redistricting reform), Issue 2
(anti-monopoly provision), and Issue 3 (legalize marijuana). The survey provides a baseline for
understandingpublicsupportfortheballotissuesduringthefinalweeksofthecampaign.
Keyfindings:
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RegisteredvotersreportlowlevelsofinformationonIssues1(redistricting)and2(monopoly),
buthighlevelsofinformationonIssue3(marijuana).
Overall,amajorityofregisteredvotersaresupportiveofIssue1(redistricting),55to16percent
withthe29percentundecided.
Overall, pluralities of registered voters are supportive of Issue 2 (monopoly), 40 to 28 percent
with32percentundecided.
Overall, registered voters are evenly divided on Issue 3 (marijuana), 46 to 46 percent with 8
percentundecided.
Nearlytwo-fifthsofregisteredvotersseeIssue3(marijuana)asthemostimportantmeasureon
the2015ballot,followedbyone-thirdwhoseelocaltaxleviesasthemostimportant.
RegisteredvotersreportreceivingmorepositiveinformationaboutIssue3(marijuana)thanfor
Issue1(redistricting)orIssue2(monopoly).
Turnoutwillbecriticalindetermininghowsupportfortheballotissuesisconvertedintovotes
byElectionDay.
TheSurvey
The2015AkronBuckeyePollwasconductedbytheCenterforMarketingandOpinionResearchforthe
RayC.BlissInstituteofAppliedPoliticsatTheUniversityofAkron.Itwasarandomsampleof1,074Ohio
registered voters conducted by telephone (with a cell phone component) between September 1 and
October1,2015,withamarginoferrorofplusorminusthreepercentagepoints.
Thepolldescribedthethreeproposedconstitutionalamendmentsasfollow:
1. Redistricting Reform: “One proposed amendment, State Issue 1, would change the way state
legislativedistrictsaredrawneverytenyearsbycreatingabipartisanredistrictingcommission.”
1
2.Anti-MonopolyProvision:“Anotherproposedamendment,StateIssue2,wouldprohibitanypersonor
group from using the Ohio constitution to obtain an exclusive financial benefit, such as a monopoly or
specialtaxrate.”
3.LegalizeMarijuana:“Athirdproposedamendment,StateIssue3,wouldlegalizemarijuanainOhioby
creatingastatemarijuanacontrolcommissionandrecognizingselectedmarijuanagrowersinthestate.”
SurveyResults
InformationontheBallotIssues
Overall,thereissubstantialvariationinthepercentageofOhioregisteredvoterswhoreporthearingor
readinganythingabouttheballotissues.Theserespondentscanbedescribedas“minimallyinformed.”
Haveyouheardorreadanythingabout:
28
Issue1
Issue2
72
21
Yes
79
No
Issue3
91
0
10
20
30
40
9
50
60
70
80
90
100
For Issue 1 (redistricting) less than one-third (29 percent) reported hearing or reading anything about
the proposed amendment. For Issue 2 (monopoly) the comparable figure was about one-fifth (21
percent).Suchlowlevelsofinformationarecommonforballotissuespertainingtothemechanicsof
government.
However, nine in ten respondents (91 percent) report hearing or reading anything about Issue 3
(marijuana).Thishighlevelofreportedinformationmayreflectthecontroversialnatureofsocialissues,
butalsothenationaldebateoverthelegalizationofmarijuana.
2
ArgumentsforandagainsttheBallotIssues*
Issue1:FourargumentsconcerningIssue1(redistricting)werepresentedtoallrespondents.Oneachof
these arguments—transparency, competition, compactness, and bipartisanship—a large majority of
OhioregisteredvoterssupportedIssue1.
1.Transparencyinredistricting
Issue1:Transparency
Theamendmentisagoodideabecausedistricts
shouldbebasedontransparentstandardsthatare
fairtoallgroupsofvoters.
63
NoOpinion
13
Theamendmentisabadideabecausedistricts
shouldbebasedonstandardsnegodatedby
representadvesofamajorityofvoters.
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Morethanthree-fifthsofregisteredvoterssaythatIssue1isa“goodidea”becauseredistrictingshould
be based on transparent and fair standards. At the same time, about one-quarter (24 percent) of
respondents say that Issue 1 is a “bad idea” because redistricting should be based on standards
negotiatedbyrepresentativesofamajorityofvoters.(Theremaining13percentofrespondentshadno
opinion.)
*
All respondents were asked about the major arguments for or against the ballot issues. These questions were
pairs of statements, one saying the ballot issue is a “good idea” and one saying it is a “bad idea.” For each
question, the pairs of statements were rotated so that an equal number of respondents initially heard each
statementfirst;inthefiguresthatfollow,the“goodidea”responseislistedfirstforconsistencyinpresentation.
3
2.Competitioninelections
Issue1:CompeIIon
Theamendmentisagoodideabecausemore
compeddvedistrictswillgivevotersbeeerchoicesat
elecdondme.
63
NoOpinion
12
Theamendmentisabadideabecausemore
compeddvedistrictsincreasethecostsofcampaigns
andthepowerofwealthyspecialinterests.
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
More than three-fifths (63 percent) of registered voters say Issue 1 was a “good idea” because more
competitive elections give voters better choices. At the same time, one-quarter (25 percent) of
respondents say that Issue 1 was a “bad idea” because more competitive elections would increase
campaign costs and influence of special interests. (The remaining 12 percent of respondents have no
opinion.)
3.Compactnessofdistricts
Issue1:Compactness
Theamendmentisagoodideabecausemore
compactdistrictswillbeeerrepresentallthevoters
inOhio.
60
NoOpinion
16
Theamendmentisabadideabecausemore
compactdistrictswilldiscriminateagainstminority
votersinOhio.
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Morethanthree-fifthsofrespondentssaythatIssue1isa“goodidea”becausemorecompactdistricts
wouldbetterrepresentallvoters.Atthesametime,almostone-quarter(24percent)ofrespondentssay
that Issue 1 was a “bad idea” because more compact districts would discriminate against minority
voters.(Theremaining16percentofrespondentshavenoopinion.)
4
4.Bipartisanshipinredistricting
Issue1:BiparIsanship
Theamendmentisagoodideabecauseabipardsan
voteisrequiredtoapprovenewdistrictsforten
years.
59
NoOpinion
21
Theamendmentisabadideabecauseapardsan
voteisallthatshouldberequiredtoapprovenew
districts.
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Almostthree-fifthsofregisteredvoterssayIssue1isa“goodidea”becauseitrequiresabipartisanvote
to approve new districts every ten years. At the same time, one-fifth (20 percent) of respondents say
that Issue 1 is a “bad idea” because a partisan vote is all that should be required to approve new
districts.(Theremaining21percentofrespondentshasnoopinion.)
Totheextentthatvotersturnoutandcasttheirballotsonthebasisoftransparency,competitiveness,
compactnessand/orbipartisanship,Issue1islikelytopass.
5
Issue 2: Two arguments concerning Issue 2 (monopoly) were presented to all respondents. On one
argument,protectingthepublicinterest,amajorityofOhioregisteredvoterssupportedIssue2.Onthe
otherargument,controllingspecialinterests,respondentswereevenlydivided.
1.Preventingprivategain
Issue2:PrivateGain
Theamendmentisagoodideabecauseitprevents
privategainatpublicexpense.
54
19
NoOpinion
Theamendmentisabadideabecauseitstops
innovadvesoludonstopublicproblems
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
Amajorityofregisteredvoters(54percent)sayIssue2isa“goodidea”becauseitpreventsprivategain
atpublicexpense.Atthesametime,morethanone-quarter(27percent)ofrespondentssaythatIssue2
isa“badidea”becauseitstopsinnovativesolutionstopublicproblems.(Theremaining19percentof
respondentshasnoopinion.)
2.Controllingspecialinterests
Issue2:SpecialInterests
Theamendmentisagoodideabecauseitprevents
specialinterestsfrombuyingeconomicfavorsin
ballotissueelecdons.
43
NoOpinion
16
Theamendmentisabadideabecauseittakesaway
therightofvoterstodecideballotissuesthemselves.
41
0
6
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Morethantwo-fifthsofregisteredvoters(43percent)sayIssue2isa“goodidea”becauseitprevents
specialinterestsfrombuyingeconomicfavorsattheballotbox.Atthesametime,abouttwo-fifths(41
percent)saythatIssue2isa“badidea”becauseittakesawaytherightofvoterstodecideballotissues
themselves.(Theremaining16percentofrespondentshasnoopinion.)
Totheextentthatvotersturnoutandcasttheirballotsonthebasisofpreventingprivategain,Issue2
is likely to pass. However, ballots cast on the basis of controlling special interest may diminish the
likelihoodofpassage.
Issue 3: Three arguments concerning Issue 3 (marijuana) were presented to all respondents. On two
arguments—legalizingtheuseofmarijuanaandnewtaxesonmarijuana—amajorityofOhioregistered
voterssupportsIssue3,andontheother—creatingfacilitiestogrowmarijuana,amajorityopposeit.
1.Legalizinguseofmarijuana
Issue3:LegalizingMarijuana
Theamendmentisagoodideabecauseitwillallow
cidzenstousemarijuanaforpersonalormedical
purposes.
53
4
NoOpinion
Theamendmentisabadideabecauseitwill
encouragecidzens,includingchildren,touse
marijuanaandotherdrugs.
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
More than one-half of registered voters (53 percent) say Issue 3 is a “good idea” because it allows
citizenstousemarijuanaforpersonalormedicalpurposes.Atthesametime,morethantwo-fifths(43
percent)sayIssue3isa“badidea”becauseitencouragescitizens,includingchildren,tousemarijuana
andotherdrugs.(Theremaining4percentofrespondentshavenoopinion.)
7
2.FacilitiesforgrowingmarijuanainOhio
Issue3:FaciliIesinOhio
Theamendmentisagoodideabecauseitwill
establishandregulatetenfacilidesforgrowing
marijuanainOhio.
41
NoOpinion
6
Theamendmentisabadideabecauseitwillgrant
tenwealthylandownersamonopolyongrowing
marijuanainOhio.
53
0
10
20
30
40
50
Abouttwo-fifthsofregisteredvoters(41percent)sayIssue3isa“goodidea”becauseitwillestablish
and regulate ten facilities for growing marijuana in Ohio. At the same time, more than one-half (53
percent)sayIssue3isa“badidea”becauseitwillgranttenwealthylandownersamonopolyongrowing
marijuanainOhio.(Theremaining6percentofrespondentshavenoopinion.)
3.Taxesgeneratedfrommarijuana
Issue3:TaxesonMarijuana
Theamendmentisagoodideabecauseitwill
generatemillionsofdollarsintaxesonmarijuanafor
localgovernments.
54
NoOpinion
8
Theamendmentisabadideabecauseitwillremove
stategovernmentfromsefngtaxratesand
reguladonsonmarijuana.
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
Morethanone-halfofregisteredvoters(54percent)sayIssue3isa“goodidea”becauseitwillgenerate
millionsofdollarsintaxesonmarijuanaforlocalgovernments.Atthesametime,lessthantwo-fifths
8
(38percent)sayIssue3isa“badidea”becauseitwillremovestategovernmentfromsettingtaxrates
andregulationsonmarijuana.(Theremaining8percentofrespondentshavenoopinion.)
To the extent that voters turn out and cast their ballots on the basis of legalizing and/or taxes on
marijuana, Issue 3 will likely pass. However, if ballots are cast on the facilities question, it may
diminishthelikelihoodofpassage.
Information,Arguments,andOpinionontheBallotIssues
Overall,therewassubstantialvariationinviewsontheballotissuesamongregisteredvoterswhoreport
hearingorreadinganythingabouttheproposedamendments(“minimallyinformed”voters).
InformedOpiniononBallotIssues
(amongrespondentswhoheard/readanything)
37
Issue1
47
16
Favor
Issue2
26
45
39
Issue3
0
10
20
29
19
30
40
50
Undecided
Oppose
42
60
70
80
90
100
Among minimally informed voters, more than one-third (37 percent) favor Issue 1 (redistricting) and
aboutone-sixthopposeit(16percent),withalmostone-halfundecided(47percent).Putanotherway,
Issue1isfavoredmorethantwo-to-one(70to30percent)byrespondentswithanopiniononthisballot
issue. However, a large majority of Ohio registered voters are undecided or report receiving no
informationonIssue1.
Minimally informed voters are more evenly divided on Issue 2 (monopoly), with one-quarter (26
percent) in favor and more than one-quarter opposed (29 percent), and 45 percent undecided. Put
anotherway,Issue2isonbalanceopposed(47to53percent)byrespondentswithanopiniononthis
ballotissue.Buthere,too,alargemajorityofOhioregisteredvotersareundecidedorhavenotreceived
informationonIssue2.
OnIssue3(marijuana),almosttwo-fifths(39percent)oftheseminimallyinformedvotersfavorit,about
two-fifths(42percent)areopposed,with19percentundecided.Putanotherway,Issue3isonbalance
opposed(48to52percent)byrespondentswithanopiniononthisballotissue.OnlyaminorityofOhio
registeredvoterslackanopinionorminimalinformationonIssue3.
9
Giventhenumberofrespondentswholackanopinionorreportreceivingnoinformationontheballot
issues,anoverallmeasureofpublicopinionwascreatedtoassesslikelysupportandoppositiontoeach
ballotissue.
This measure combined minimally informed respondents who favor or oppose the ballot issues with
undecided/uninformedvotersbasedontheirviewsoftheargumentsabouttheballotissues.Thelatter
category was divided into net positive (“good idea”) and net negative (“bad idea”) opinion. The
undecidedhadnonetpositiveornegativeviewsontheargumentspresented.
Issue1:OverallSupport
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
44
29
11
11
5
Favor
"GoodIdea"
Undecided
"BadIdea"
Oppose
Intermsofoverallsupport,morethanone-halfofregisteredvoters(55percent)aresupportiveofIssue
1(redistricting).Thelargestcategory(44percent)saysthatIssue1isa“goodidea”andmostofthese
respondents had not heard or read anything about the amendment. Meanwhile, about one-sixth (16
percent)ofrespondentsarenotsupportiveofIssue1.(Theremaining29percentareundecided.)
10
Issue2:OverallSupport
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
34
33
22
6
5
Favor
"GoodIdea"
Undecided
"BadIdea"
Oppose
Intermsofoverallsupport,almosttwo-fifthsofregisteredvoters(38percent)aresupportiveofIssue2
(monopoly). The largest category (33 percent) says that Issue 2 is a “good idea” and most of these
respondentshadnotheardorreadanythingaboutthisamendment.Meanwhile,morethanone-quarter
(28percent)ofrespondentsarenotsupportiveofIssue2.(Theremaining34percentareundecided.)
Issue3:OverallSuppport
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
38
35
11
Favor
"GoodIdea"
8
Undecided
8
"BadIdea"
Oppose
Intermsofoverallsupport,almostone-halfofregisteredvoters(46percent)aresupportiveofIssue3
(marijuana).Meanwhile,thesameproportion(46percent)isnotsupportiveofIssue3.(Theremaining8
percent are undecided.) Unlike Issues 1 and 2, the largest categories of respondents have heard/read
somethingabouttheamendmentandalsohaveanopinionaboutit.
11
Howdotheopinionsontheballotissuesrelatetooneanother?
Ontheonehand,registeredvoterswhoaresupportiveofIssue1(redistricting)alsotendtofavorIssue
2(monopoly)andIssue3(marijuana)—andviceversa.
On the other hand, registered voters who are supportive of Issue 2 tend to oppose Issue 3—and vice
versa. This pattern reflects a potential legal conflict between the two constitutional amendments.
However,somerespondentssupportbothballotissues:morethanone-thirdofIssue2supportersalso
supportIssue3,whileabouttwo-fifthsofIssue3supportersalsobackIssue2.
BallotIssues,Demography,andPoliticalAttitudes
For Issue 1 (redistricting), there are few significant demographic or political differences onthe overall
opinion. Registered voters 65 or older, strong Republicans, and extremely conservative voters are
modestlylesssupportiveoftheproposedamendment.Atthesametime,nonwhitevotersarealsoless
supportivethanwhitevoters.
ForIssue2(monopoly),therearealsoafewsignificantdemographicorpoliticaldifferencesonoverall
opinion. Registered voters who are male and conservative are more opposed to the proposed
amendment.
ForIssue3(marijuana),therearesignificantdemographicfactorsonoverallopinion.Youngerregistered
votersaremoresupportivethanoldervoters,andnon-whitevotersaremoresupportivethanwhites.
Regular worship attenders are less supportive of Issue 3, while non-attenders are more supportive.
Well-educated respondents (a college or post-graduate degree) and affluent respondents ($75,000 a
yearormore)arelesssupportiveoftheproposedamendmentaswell.
TherearealsosignificantpoliticaldifferencesinaggregateopinionforIssue3(marijuana),withliberals
andDemocratsmoresupportive,whileconservativesandRepublicansarelesssupportive.
12
SalienceofBallotIssuestoVoters
Allrespondentswereasked:WhichofthefollowingthingsontheballotisMOSTimportanttoyouinthe
November2015election?
MostImportantMeasureon2015Ballot
40
35
30
25
20
39
32
15
10
5
14
10
5
0
Issue1
Issue2
Issue3
Localofficialsand
judges
Localtaxlevies
Almost two-fifths (39 percent) of Ohio registered voters say that Issue 3 (marijuana) is the “most
important” measure on the 2015 ballot. In contrast, one-tenth (10 percent) identify Issue 1
(redistricting) as most important and one-twentieth (5 percent) mention Issue 2 (monopoly).
Meanwhile, almost one-third of respondents (32 percent) say local tax levies are the most important
measureandaboutone-seventh(14percent)saylocalofficialsandjudges.
70
BallotIssueOpinion
by"MostImportant"Measure
69
56
60
49
50
Suppordve
40
22
30
20
45
16
Undecided
22
15
NotSuppordve
6
10
0
Issue1
Issue2
Issue3
13
Overall,registeredvoterswhoidentityaballotissueas“mostimportant”aresupportiveofit.ForIssue1
(redistricting),morethantwo-thirds(69percent)oftherespondentswhosayitis“mostimportant”are
supportive.ForIssue2(monopoly),thecomparablefigureismorethanone-half(56percent),andfor
Issue 3 (marijuana), almost one-half (49 percent) are supportive—but note that almost as many
respondents(45percent)arenotsupportiveofIssue3.
Howdothesalienceoftheballotissuesrelatetooneanother?
Respondents who say Issue 3 (marijuana) is “most important” are on balance supportive of Issue 1
(redistricting)andviceversa.AndasimilarreciprocalpatternofsupportholdsforIssues1and2.
Notsurprisingly,respondentswhoregardIssue3asmostimportantarelesssupportiveofIssue2,while
respondentswhoregardIssue2asmostimportantarelesssupportiveofIssue3.
Respondentswhosaylocaltaxleviesorlocalofficialsarethe“mostimportant”thingsontheballotare
supportiveofIssue1,slightlyinfavorofIssue2,andmodestlyopposedtoIssue3.
ContentofInformationonBallotIssues
Overall, there is variation in the content of the ballot issue information received by Ohio registered
voterswhoreporthearingorreadinganythingabouttheballotmeasures(“minimallyinformed”voters).
Haveyouheard/readmore
supporIngoropposing:
58
Issue1
Issue2
42
44
Support
56
Opposidon
Issue3
69
0
10
20
30
31
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MinimallyinformedvotersreportmorepositivethannegativeinformationonIssue1(redistricting,58
to42percent).AsimilarpatternheldforIssue3(marijuana):morethantwiceasmanyrespondents
reportmorepositivethannegativeinformation(69to31percent).
Incontrast,onIssue2(monopoly),minimallyinformedvotersreportlessinformationsupportingthan
opposingit(44to56percent).
14
Receipt of positive information supportive of each ballot issue is closely linked to support among
registeredvoters.ThebestevidenceforthispatternisforIssue3(marijuana).Duringthefieldperiodof
thesurvey,overallsupportforIssue3increasedby7percentagepoints,whilethesalienceoftheissue
grewby8percentagepoints.†
BallotIssuesandTurnout
Overall support for the three ballot issues is not strongly associated with standard measures of voter
turnout,suchasinterestintheelectionandpastvotingbehavior.
For example, an estimated turnout of 30 percent produces a slight advantage in favor of Issue 3
(marijuana,51to49percent),whileanestimatedturnoutof40percentproducesaslightadvantagein
oppositionofIssue3(49to51percent).However,anestimateof50percentturnoutshowsIssue3with
anadvantage(52to48percent).
This pattern suggests that the election outcome may depend less on the overall level of turnout and
morebythemixofvoterswhoactuallycastaballot.
If, for example, the voters turning out in 2015 resemble the characteristics of the 2014 gubernatorial
election (a good Republican year), Issue 3 would have a disadvantage (45 to 55 percent). But if the
voterswhoturnoutresemble2012(agoodDemocraticyear),Issue3wouldhaveanadvantage(52to
48percent).AndifturnoutofIssue3supportersistenpercentagepointsgreaterthanopponents,Issue
3 may prevail by a comfortable margin (54 to 46 percent). The reverse is true if opponents of Issue 3
haveacomparableadvantageinturnout.
†
Inthefinaldaysofthefieldperiodforthesurvey,Issue3wasfavored41to38percentamongminimally
informedvoters.
15