Adapting to a Changing Climate
Presentation to Future’s Committee
April 14, 2014
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Adaptation vs. Mitigation
Mitigation = Brakes
Adaptation = Air bags
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IMPACTS
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
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What the Science is Pointing to
Figure 1. The future temperature development in the highest emissions
scenario (red) and in a scenario with successful climate mitigation (blue) –
the “4-degree world” and the “2-degree world.” 2013 IPCC AR5
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Precipitation
Figure 4. Average seasonal percent change in precipitation for the
Front Range of Colorado, projected for mid-century (left; 2035-45)
and late-century (right; 2065-75). From Joint Front Range Climate
Change Vulnerability Study 2012. Water Research Foundation.
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Hydrology
From Joint Front Range Climate Change Vulnerability
Study 2012. Water Research Foundation
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Climate Change Snapshot for Fort Collins
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Up to 6° F warmer summers by 2040
Continued declines in snowpack
Declines in soil moisture, water availability and quality
Earlier spring runoff
Lower and extended low stream flow in late summer
Strong Potential for More Extreme Events
• Greater likelihood of severe storms
• Greater likelihood of extended drought
• Greater likelihood of severe wildfire
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Temperature
Table 1. Average days per year of especially hot temperatures. For the future
periods, the values shown are the medians of 60 projections.
The percentages in parentheses are comparisons to 1961–1999 averages.
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Impacts from heat
• Increased frequency and severity of heat waves
and ozone formation
• Increased pest and disease outbreaks, such as
mountain pine beetle and West Nile virus
• Increased spread of invasive species
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Identified Risks and Vulnerabilities for
Fort Collins
High Sensitivity, Low Adaptive Capacity
• Urban forest canopy, management and cost: loss of canopy
cover could exacerbate heat, cost of clearing and replanting,
etc.
• Outdoor Air Quality: Outdoor air quality impacts from wildfire
and ozone, exacerbating already poor air quality (wildfire,
ozone, flooding)
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Low income housing: Needs could increase with increased
costs for housing, utilities coupled with limited supply,
exacerbated by extreme events that damage housing stock
• Conservation of species, ecosystems and habitats: Loss of
native species and important vegetation types
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Identified Risks and Vulnerabilities for
Fort Collins
High Sensitivity, Med. Adaptive Capacity
• Water related Issues: Quantity, quality, demand, storage,
watershed health and ecosystem services, challenges to meet
regulatory requirements for treatment
• People: Health impacts to vulnerable populations (elderly,
homeless, young, compromised health), outdoor workers
• Economic Impacts: Potential loss of tourism, resource-based
businesses, increased insurance rates and utility rates,
increase or decrease population growth (climate refugees),
disaster disruption and clean ups
• Energy: Increased demand for energy use and GHG
emissions
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Next Steps
• Ongoing outreach to City departments to expand list of
identified risks, vulnerabilities and strategies
• Develop collaborative relationships between County, PSD,
UCH, Health District and others
• Identify adaptation strategies with co-benefits for mitigation
as part of Climate Action Plan Update
• Ongoing peer-learning with 12 other intermountain west
communities (Western Adaptation Alliance)
• BFO offer for additional planning and pilot projects
• Monitor the climate science for improved modeling and
projections
• Fold adaptive considerations into AMP
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Questions?
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