The challenges of future rural population change
Jacques Poot
Professor of Population Economics
National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis (NIDEA)
With thanks to: Professor Natalie Jackson,
NIDEA Director; Rachael Hutt and Glen
Stichbury.
University of Waikato
Fieldays Seminar Series
Thursday 14 June 2012
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Outline
• Global background – the power of agglomeration
– Continuing urbanisation and rural transformation
• New Zealand’s urban and rural populations
– One size does not fit all
• New Zealand’s changing national population
– Population growth and ageing, but uncertain migration
• The demographic future of rural New Zealand
– The greying of green
• Ageing and the rural economy
– Succession planning
• The challenges ahead
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The power of agglomeration
• To understand rural transformation we have to
understand city growth.
• A little more than half of the world population of 7
billion is urban. This is expected to increase to 2/3 by
2050.
• The rapid rate of urbanisation is due to global
economic transformation and strengthening net
positive agglomeration economies.
• In New Zealand, 86% of the population is already
urban.
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One way of measuring agglomeration…
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Why is agglomeration increasing?
• Real cost of transportation is declining: greater demand for mobility is
facilitated by the greater accessibility of large cities
• Globalisation increases returns to scale and leads to greater urban
population diversity
• Production is becoming more complex and services or variety-oriented.
This necessitates greater:
– Sharing (infrastructure, scale of market, variety opportunities, risk pooling)
– Matching (specialisation, labour pooling)
– Learning (benefits of tacit knowledge exchange among “smart” people)
• Self-reinforcing “sorting”: Big cities attract the most productive firms (high
R&D, ICT) and workers (“power couples”)
• Cities are “fun”, plus provide education for the young and specialised care
for the old
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Urban and rural areas in New Zealand
Rural land accounts for 2/3 of exports
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Which Territorial Authorities are the Most Rural?
10 most rural TAs
Westland District
Waimate District
Selwyn District
Clutha District
Far North District
Otorohanga District
Mackenzie District
Kaipara District
Southland District
Hurunui District
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59.13
60.83
63.36
64.75
66.24
71.65
73.83
76.02
82.34
93.02
1996-2006 Population growth: Rural areas with high
urban influence provide “the best of both worlds”
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Which TAs have seen the biggest 1996-2006 change?
Biggest % points rural loss
Selwyn District
Franklin District
Tasman District
Tararua District
Central Otago District
Biggest rural % points gain
Carterton District
Kaikoura District
Waimakariri District
Westland District
Queenstown-Lakes District
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-6.08
-3.22
-2.51
-2.16
-2.05
3.01
3.06
3.66
4.10
4.32
Age pyramid in urban and rural areas, 2006
Age group
(years)
Age group
(years)
85+
85+
80-84
80-84
Main Urban Area
75-79
75-79
70-74
70-74
65-69
65-69
60-64
60-64
55-59
55-59
50-54
50-54
Males
48%
45-49
40-44
45-49
Females
52%
40-44
35-39
35-39
30-34
30-34
25-29
25-29
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
10-14
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
0-4
Males
52%
Females
48%
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Percent
Percent
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Rural Area with
Low Urban Influence
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New Zealand’s population growth roller coaster
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The New Zealand Population: Past, Present and
Projected
7,000,000
Census Night Population
6,000,000
5,000,000
Census night population
Low projection
High projection
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
19
01
19
06
19
11
19
16
19
21
19
26
19
31
19
36
19
41
19
46
19
51
19
56
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
20
06
20
11
20
16
20
21
20
26
20
31
20
36
20
41
20
46
20
51
20
56
20
61
20
66
0
Census Year
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There are huge differences in population growth across age groups
Percentage Change
100
Projected change by age (%)
80
2011-2016 (+205K; 4.6%)
60
2011-2026 (+566K; 12.8%)
40
20
0
Stats NZ (2009) Series 5 = National TFR 1.9; ANM 10,000; medium mortality
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85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-20
Already crossed
over in 12% TAs
There will be more elderly than children in just 11 years
1,600,000
0-14 years
1,400,000
65+ years
1,200,000
Number
Projected
1,000,000
800,000
Crossover 2023
600,000
400,000
200,000
Projections: Stats NZ (2009) Medium Variant Series 5 (ANM 10,000; TFR 1.9)
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2056
2046
2036
2026
2016
2009
2001
1991
1981
1971
1961
1951
1936
1921
1911
1901
0
14
Population ageing and its four dimensions:
• Numerical Ageing
– Increase in numbers of elderly (primarily caused by
increased life expectancy) – also in-migration of elderly
• Structural ageing
– Increase in proportions of elderly (primarily caused by
low/falling birth rates)** - also out-migration of young
• Natural decline
– More elderly than children   more deaths than births
• Absolute decline
– Inability of ‘replacement migration’ to replace the ‘lost’
births and increased deaths
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Percentage of all growth
Share of NZ’s future growth will be most uneven
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80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
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2006-2031 Population change in TAs that are
becoming more rural
% Rural
Population
2006
Marlborough District
46.64
Wairoa District
49.93
Hauraki District
50.75
Buller District
51.04
Waitomo District
53.21
Western Bay of Plenty District
58.14
Westland District
59.13
Far North District
66.24
Mackenzie District
73.83
Kaipara District
76.02
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Rural
Low
High
Population Projected
Projected
% points Annual Pop Annual Pop
%
%
%
%
change 1996- Growth 2006- Growth 2006- Growth Growth Growth Growth
06
31
31
0-14
15-39 40-64
65+
1.13
-0.2
1.0
-12.5
-13.4
0.0 111.3
0.23
-0.8
0.0
-30.4
-28.0
-37.9
90.0
1.60
-1.0
0.2
-28.2
-28.3
-29.5
90.0
0.31
-1.0
0.4
-21.1
-30.8
-26.3
93.8
0.40
-1.1
0.4
-20.0
-10.0
-25.8
72.7
2.41
0.5
1.6
5.4
14.3
10.0 135.3
4.10
-0.7
0.6
-23.5
-18.5
-18.8 136.4
0.43
-0.4
0.7
-15.2
-14.6
-8.0 108.9
2.16
-0.7
0.9
-25.0
-16.7
-26.7 160.0
1.22
-0.6
0.5
-25.6
-26.0
-12.3 110.7
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Does it matter? Well.. who will work on/buy our farms..?
Grain, Sheep and Beef Farmers – Southland RC 2006
Females
Age
Males
Employer
Paid Employee
Unpaid Family
Worker
10
5
0
5
Percentage at each age
Statistics New Zealand Customised Database (Census 2006)
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Self-Employed,
Without Employees
65+
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
18
10
Not Elsewhere
Included
The challenges ahead
• The BIG picture. NZ [and the world] is transiting from overall
growth to redistribution
– Natural increase will decline, and migration will become ever more
important > ethnic compositions will change
– The challenges and opportunities will be highly uneven by region
– The big cities of Australasia will continue to pull in people
– The ageing population has major implications for the labour market
(mobility, unemployment, occupations, skills, etc.)
• The future of rural New Zealand
–
–
–
–
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Population growth will slow and will end in most rural areas
However, economic transformation in some rural areas yields growth
Rural schools will be even more “under threat”
Emerging rural labour shortages both in the primary sector and in
services
– The 65+ rural populations will double. That is more certain than any
other aspect of population projections
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• Thank You
•
•
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[email protected]
www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea