NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 6
Taranaki Region, June 2014
Age and Ethnic Structure
With 16.1 per cent aged 65+ years in 2013, the population of the Taranaki Region is New Zealand’s sixth-oldest (of 16
regions; nationally 14.2 per cent is aged 65+ years). However age structures differ markedly by ethnic group. Figure 7
compares the age structures of the Taranaki Region’s European and Maori populations*, which account for 76 and 15 per
cent of the total (compared with 65 and 13 per cent nationally—note that these data are based on multiple count
ethnicity and thus sum to more than 100 per cent). In 2013 the median age for the region’s Maori population was 23.6
years (that is, one-half of the Maori population was aged less than 24 years), compared with 41.1 years for those of
European origin. The graphs also show how each population has aged structurally since 2001 (unshaded bars), due to
the demographic changes already discussed. The Taranaki Region is somewhat less multi-ethnic than is the case
nationally, with just 1.4 per cent Pacific Island, 3.0 per cent Asian, 0.4 per cent Middle Eastern/Latin American/African,
and 4.5 per cent ‘not identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per cent respectively at national level.
Figure 7: Age Structure: Taranaki Region, European and Māori 2001 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars)
7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
Percentage at each age group
5.0
7.0
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Age Group (years)
Females
Males
Age Group (years)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Females
Mäori
European
7.0
5.0
3.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
Percentage at each age group
5.0
7.0
Taranaki has New Zealand’s sixth-oldest Regional population, but—
as elsewhere—the population of European origin
is relatively old, and the
population of Māori
origin, extremely young.
TARANAKI REGION – KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
2013-2063
Natalie Jackson
Inside this issue:
Taranaki Region Population Size and Growth
The population of the Taranaki Region has grown slowly over the past 27 years, from
107,499 in 1986 to 109,700 in 2011 and 110,500 in 2013 (+2.8 per cent), albeit
experiencing a period of decline between 1996 and 2001 (Figure 1). The population is
projected to grow slowly over the next two decades with the Statistics New Zealand medium
series projections (2006-base) indicating a population of 111,460 by 2031. However
numbers could range as high as 125,500 (high series) or as low as 97,750 (low series).
Observed (ERP)
High
Medium
125,500
Summary
109,700
111,460
100,000
References:
Jackson, N. O., and Pawar, S. (2013). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho
Mairangi: Regional Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project. ,
Hamilton, New Zealand: National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato.
Summary
4
40,000
20,000
0
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
Components of Change
The major component of the Taranaki Figure 2: Components of change: Taranaki Region
Region’s population growth has long been
natural
increase
(the
difference
Natural Increase
Estimated Net Migration
Net Change
1,500
between births and deaths) (Figure 2).
Significant net migration loss occurred
1,000
across most of the 1990s and to a lesser
500
extent across the 2000s, with that loss
completely offsetting natural increase
across the period 1996-2001 and
-500
explaining the overall decline. Although the
-1,000
region’s natural increase experienced a
-1,500
small rise over the mid–to late-2000s (as
March Years
June Years
elsewhere in New Zealand), this
-2,000
component of growth is steadily reducing
as the population ages and larger
Taranaki REGION
proportions reach the age at which they
Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare
have completed childbearing.
National Institute of
Demographic and
Economic Analysis
(NIDEA)
Faculty of Arts & Social
Sciences,
University of Waikato
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton 3240,
New Zealand
2012-13
2011-12
Phone:
07 838 4040
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1998-99
1999-2000
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992
The Taranaki Region has a slightly greater proportion Maori
than the national average, and a smaller proportion of those
of Pacific Island, Asian, or Middle Eastern/Latin American/African origin. The relative youth of the region’s Maori
population has the potential to bestow an economic advantage as population ageing proceeds, as the older European population disproportionately enters retirement, and the
number of youthful labour force entrants declines.
4
60,000
1992-93
The Taranaki Region experiences an on
going problem in terms of net migration loss at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age;
however that loss has reduced over the
past three Census periods.
Age and Ethnic
Structure
80,000
Number
with net migration loss occurring across most of the
1990s and 2000s, but decreasingly so. Increasingly,
‘natural increase’ will be driven by growth at 65+ years, as
the baby boomer cohorts move into these age groups and
numbers rise due to increasing longevity. Eventually the
same cohorts will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths
will increase and will not be replaced by births.
Number
97,750
Mover and stayer data indicate that between 71 and 76 per
cent of those enumerated as living in the Taranaki Region
on Census night at the past four Censuses had been living
there 5 years previously. Auckland has increasingly provided the region’s largest gains of internal migrants, followed
by Manawatu-Wanganui, Waikato and Wellington. The
same regions feature as the main destinations for Taranaki’s leavers, but Manawatu-Wanganui has twice beaten
Auckland as the largest recipient.
2
Low
140,000
107,499
The major cause of the region’s growth is natural increase,
Migration by Age
Population Ageing 3
120,000
Net migration gains at younger and several older ages partially offset that loss, but are not perfect substitutes because
the sustained loss at young adult ages compounds over time
to reduce the primary reproductive age group (20-39
years), and thus the number of children. The trends have
resulted in the Taranaki Region having the sixth-oldest population of New Zealand’s 16 regions, albeit the region is not
ageing as fast as many.
2
Taranaki’s Movers 3
and Stayers
Figure 1: Population of Taranaki Region 1986-2011 and projected to 2031
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Group (Total Responses) by Age (Five Year Groups) and Sex For the census
usually
resident population
countMultiple Count method of enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group
Notes: *Statistics
New Zealand's
The population of the Taranaki Region has grown slowly
over the past 27 years, from 107,499 in 1986 to 109,700
in 2011 and 110,500 in 2013 (+2.8 per cent). The population is projected to grow slowly over the next two decades with the Statistics New Zealand medium series projections indicating a population of 111,460 by 2031.
However numbers could range as high as 125,500 (high
series) or as low as 97,750 (low series).
Components of
Change by
E-mail:
[email protected]
ISSN 2382-039X
(Print)
ISSN 2382-0403
(Online)
NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 6
Taranaki Region, June 2014
Page 2
migration, which we call the ‘residual’ component (+852
people enumerated as having moved to the region
between 2008 and 2013, but their 2008 origin is
unknown). The model further disaggregates each known
net migration component into its respective inflows and
outflows (8,517 internal immigrants and 8,754 internal
emigrants; 6,067 PLT international immigrants and 6,859
PLT international emigrants). As for most regions, the
overall picture is one of considerable ‘churn’, generated by
large numbers of leavers and arrivals relative to the net
outcome. Data for the 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 periods
are available on request from NIDEA.
Between 2008 and 2013, the
Taranaki Region grew by 3,000
persons, all of which was accounted for by natural increase.
Figure 3: Components Flows—Taranaki Region 2008-2013
Start
NET CHANGE in Estimated Population
107,500
Births
+261.2%
ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION
+
(Births - Deaths)
7,835
+105.9%
-
-177
Deaths
4,658
End
+2.8%
NATURAL INCREASE
+3,177
110,500
(ERP2008 - ERP2013)
+3,000
-5.9%
NET KNOWN MIGRATION
Residual Component of Migration
(Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration)
Estimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration)
-155.3%
-1,029
-34.3%
-237
+8,517
+283.9%
-
-7.9%
-792
-26.4%
PLT Arrivals
-291.8%
+28.4%
Net PLT Migration
Internal Out-migrants
-8,754
+852
+
Net Internal Migration
Internal In-migrants
N I D E A D e m o gTr aa p
ap
r ahni ca kSin R
e gs h
i oont –N ok.e 6y
T a r a n a kdi eRmeog gi or an p, hJ ui cn et r2e 0n1d 4s
Taranaki’s Movers and Stayers
Components of Change by Component Flow
Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’
(Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of the
Taranaki Region’s population change can be broken down
to give an approximation of their underlying flows. Figure
3 shows that between 2008 and 2013, the Taranaki
Region grew by approximately 3,000 persons (+2.8 per
cent). Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted
for 3,177 persons, slightly reduced by an estimated net
migration loss of 177 persons. The natural increase
component was in turn comprised of 7,835 births partially
offset by 4,658 deaths. From estimated net migration (177) we then account for ‘known’ net migration (-1,029),
comprised of net internal migration (-237) and net
international permanent/long term (PLT) migration (792). This leaves an unaccounted for component of
Page 3
+6,067
Leavers: The data for those who had been living in the
Taranaki Region in 2008 but were living elsewhere at the
2013 Census show marked similarity to the main regions
of origin, the single-largest proportions of leavers having
gone to Auckland, Wellington, Manawatu-Wanganui,
followed by Waikato.
Perhaps the most interesting observation from these data
is that the patterns have been remarkably consistent over
the past four Censuses, the regions of origin and
destination of Taranaki’s internal migrants remaining
almost identical over time, although in both 1996 and
2006 Manawatu-Wanganui out-performed Auckland as
the main region of destination.
Figure 5: Taranki’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013
The past four censuses indicate that between 71 and
76 per cent of people enumerated as living in the
Taranaki Region at each
Census had been living in
the Region five years previously .
PLT Departures
-
+202.2%
Data from the 2013 Census indicate that 71 per cent of
those enumerated as living in the Taranaki Region on
Census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in
2008, similar to the proportion at the 2006 Census but
lower than in 1996 and 2001 (76 per cent). At the 2013
Census, those who had not been born in 2008 accounted
for the single largest component of arrivals (accounting
for 7.2 per cent of the 2013 population), followed by those
who had been living elsewhere in New Zealand but not
further defined (5.0 per cent). The next largest
contingents were those who had been overseas in 2008
and those who did not state where they had been living
(4.6 per cent each). Internally, the next largest
contributions came from Auckland, Manawatu-Wanganui,
the Waikato and Wellington.
-6,859
-228.6%
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
Population Ageing
Migration by Age
Figure 4: Net migration by age — Taranaki Region 1996-2001, 2001-2006 and
2008-2013
1,000
500
0
-500
Number
-1,000
1996-2001
-1,500
As elsewhere, declining birth rates, increasing longevity, and—in Taranaki’s case—net migration loss at 15-24
years, are causing the population to age structurally. Currently, the Taranaki Region has the sixth oldest age
structure of New Zealand’s 16 regions, but it is not ageing as fast as some; in 2006 it had the second oldest age
structure. The New Plymouth and Stratford Districts are slightly older (17 per cent aged 65+ years), and South
Taranaki slightly younger (15.3 per cent aged 65+ years). At regional level, all age groups below 65 years are
projected to decline in size across the period 2011-2031, and those at 65+ years to increase (Figure 6). By 2031,
26.2 per cent of the population of the Taranaki Region is projected to be aged 65+ years, up from 16.1 per cent in
2011. The Taranaki Region and Stratford District can expect to have more elderly than children by 2021, around
five years earlier than for total New Zealand, while this will occur for New Plymouth a little earlier, around 2016,
and not until 2026 for South Taranaki.
Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group
2001-2006
-2,000
2008-2013
0-14 years
-2,500
Age Group
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
90+
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
10-14
15-19
0-4
-3,000
Percentage Change, 2011 - 2031
120.0
5-9
Figure 4 shows that the Taranaki Region’s
overall net migration loss between 2008 and
2013 was largely accounted for by those at 1519 and 20-24 years of age; however loss at
these ages has reduced quite systematically
over the last three Census periods. Across the
2001-2006 and 2008-2013 periods, small net
gains occurred at 0-9 years, and larger gains at
25-39 years, indicating the net arrival of young
adults/parents and children (note that these
data have allowed for change in cohort size).
Between 2008 and 2013 there was also a small
increase in net migration gain at 60-89 years,
indicating the increasing arrival of retirees. The
underlying data show that most age groups saw
both internal and international arrivals and
departures, with around half of the 2008-2013
net gain at 30-34 and 60-69 years being of
international migrants.
15-24 years
100.0
80.0
25-39 years
60.0
40-54 years
40.0
55-64 years
20.0
0.0
65-74 years
-20.0
75-84 years
-40.0
Taranaki Region
New Zealand
85+ years
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
ource: Jackson,