NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 5
Clutha District, June 2014
Age and Ethnic Structure
show how each population has
aged structurally since 2006
(unshaded bars) due to the
declining birth rates, increasing
longevity, and net migration loss
at the key reproductive ages noted
at Figure 6.
Figure 7: Age Structure: Clutha 2006
(unshaded), 2013 (shaded)
Total Clutha
Males
80–84
Females
85+
75–79
CLUTHA DISTRICT- KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
70–74
65–69
60–64
Figure 8: Age Structure: Clutha District
Natalie Jackson
55–59
50–54
Age
With 16.4 per cent aged 65+ years
in 2013, the population of the
Clutha District is a little older than
the national average of 14.2 per
cent. However age structures
differ markedly by ethnic group.
Figures 7 and 8 compare the age
structures for the total Clutha
District and for the district’s Maori
population, which accounts for 9.5
per cent of the total.
Inside this issue:
45–49
40–44
Maori
Clutha District: Population Size and Growth
35–39
30–34
85+
25–29
Females
Males
75–79
20–24
15–19
70–74
10–14
65–69
5–9
60–64
0–4
55–59
8.0
50–54
Age
In 2013 the median age for the
region’s Maori population was 24
years (that is, one-half of the local
Maori population is aged less than
24 years), compared with 42 years
for all of Clutha. The graphs also
80–84
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Percentage at each age
45–49
Source: NIDEA/Statistics New Zealand (2014) Age Group and Sex by Regional Council Territorial
Authority Area, 2006 and 2013
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
15–19
10–14
5–9
0–4
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Percentage at each age
Source: NIDEA/Statistics New Zealand (2014) Age Group and Sex by Regional Council Territorial
Authority Area, 2006 and 2013
The population of the Clutha District
is slightly older than the national
average, but as elsewhere contains a
very youthful Māori population
whose median age is 18 years
younger.
The population of the Clutha District has declined more or less steadily over the past 27
years, from around 19,201 in 1986 to 17,350 in 2013 (-9.6 per cent) (Fig ure 1). The
population is likely to stabilise over the next two decades with the Statistics New Zealand
medium case projections indicating a population of just on 17,250 by 2031. However
numbers could range as high as 19,200 (high series) or as low as 15,350 (low series). Longer
term projections indicate a resumption of decline with a 2061 population of a little below
15,000. These trends need to be understood in the context of the ending of growth across
the More Developed Countries by mid-century and globally around the end of the century.
25,000
Projected
Observed
20,000
19,201
3
Population Ageing
3
Age and Ethnic
Structure
4
Summary
4
Number
Medium (-2%)
Low (12%)
5,000
Observed
2031
2026
2021
2016
2011
2006
2001
1996
1991
0
1986
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
National Institute of
Demographic and
Economic Analysis
(NIDEA)
Components of Change
Clutha’s population
Figure 2: Components of change: Taupo District
would have been even
Natural Increase
Estimated Net Migration
smaller today were it not
200
for strong contributions
100
from natural increase—
the difference between
births and deaths (Figure
-100
2.); all but the 2007-08
and 2010-11 years saw the
-200
district experience a net
-300
migration loss. As
March Years
June Years
-400
elsewhere, population
ageing is now causing
natural increase (the
Clutha District
difference between births Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare
and deaths) to decline and
growth to slow.
Faculty of Arts & Social
Sciences,
University of Waikato
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton 3240,
New Zealand
Net Change
Phone:
07 838 4040
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
E-mail:
[email protected]
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
Summary
Northland’s Movers
and Stayers
High (+8%)
10,000
1999-2000
References: Jackson, N.O. and Pawar , S. (2013a). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi:
Regional Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project . National Institute of Demographic and
Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, Hamilton.
2
15,350
1992
Between 2011 and 2031, numbers at 0-24 and 4064 years are projected to decline, and those at 65+
years to increase, the trends for Clutha being very
similar to those for both the Otago Region and total
New Zealand. The population of the Clutha District
is slightly older than the national average, but as
elsewhere contains a very youthful Maori
population whose median age of 24 years is 18
years younger than that of the total Clutha
population.
15,000
1992-93
Between 2008 and 2013 all Clutha age groups both
gained and lost people from both internal and
international sources. Minor net gains were
experienced at 0-9 and 25-39 years, indicating the
net arrival of young families. There was also minor
gain at 85-89 years. Net migration loss was
Mover and Stayer data from the 2013 Census
indicate that around 67 per cent of those
enumerated as living in the Clutha District on
census night had been living there in 2008. The
main origins of the district’s internal arrivals were
Dunedin, Southland District, Gore District, and
Auckland. The major destinations of leavers were
Dunedin, Southland District, Central Otago, Gore,
and Invercargill. These patterns have remained
remarkably consistent over the past four censuses.
Components of
Change by Age
19,200
Number
The majority of the district’s growth over the past
few decades has been from natural increase;
typically there has been net migration loss.
However this loss has reduced over each successive
inter-censal period 1991-1996, 2001-2006, and
2008-2013, indicating a stabilising of the situation.
characteristically high at 15-19 and 20-24 years of
age.
2
Figure 1: Population of Clutha District 1986-2011 and projected to 2031
17,250
The population of the Clutha District has declined
more or less steadily over the past 27 years, from
around 19,201 in 1986 to 17,350 in 2013 (-9.6 per
cent). The population is likely to stabilise over the
next two decades with a projected 2031 population
of just on 17,250. Longer term projections indicate
further decline with a 2061 population of a little
below 15,000. These trends need to be understood
in the context of the ending of population growth
across the More Developed Countries by midcentury and globally around the end of the century.
Components of
Change by
Component Flow
ISSN 2382-039X
(Print)
ISSN 2382-0403
(Online)
NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 5
Clutha District, June 2014
Page 2
Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’
(Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of Clutha’s
population change can be broken down into their
underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between 2008 and
2013, Clutha’s population experienced zero net change
(this represents an improvement over the net losses of
850 and 350 experienced respectively across the 19911996 and 2001-2006 periods). Underlying the 2008-2013
situation, the district experienced a natural increase of
442 persons, fully offset by an estimated net migration loss
of the same number. The natural increase component was
in turn comprised of 1,084 births partially offset by 642
deaths. The estimated net migration loss was comprised of
a ‘known’ (net internal and net permanent and long-term
international [PLT]) migration loss of around 334 persons,
along with a further net loss of 108 persons, being the
difference between the ‘known’ migration component and
the overall net migration loss. Drilling down, the net
known migration loss was comprised of a net internal loss
of 249 accompanied by a net PLT loss of 85. Underlying
these flows again were internal arrivals (+2,340) and
internal departures (-2,589), and international PLT
arrivals (+609) and international PLT departures (-694).
The overall picture indicates migration is stabilising, by
comparison with past trends. Data for the 1996-2001 and
2001-2006 periods are available on request.
NET CHANGE in Estimated Population
+00
1,084
…
…
ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION
+
(Births - Deaths)
Births
-442
Deaths
642
End
+0.0%
NATURAL INCREASE
+442
17,350
(ERP2008 - ERP2013)
+
…
…
NET KNOWN MIGRATION
Residual Component of Migration
(Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration)
Estimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration)
-334
…
+
Net Internal Migration
-249
+
Internal In-migrants
+2,340
…
…
…
Dunedin typically accounts for
Clutha’s largest gains and losses
of internal migrants. Southland,
Gore, Auckland, Central Otago
and Invercargill also feature
prominently.
Net PLT Migration
-85
Internal Out-migrants
-2,589
-108
…
+
PLT Arrivals
…
+609
…
PLT Departures
-694
Data from the 2013 Census indicate that around 67 per from these data, as are ‘other contributors to change’ on
cent of those enumerated as living in the Clutha District on the arrivals map.
census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in
2008. The single-largest group of arrivals (6.6 per cent) The patterns have been remarkably consistent over the
had not been born in 2008, while those who were ‘not past four censuses, with the exception of Queenstownelsewhere included’ or ‘living elsewhere in New Zealand Lakes, which played a more prominent role as a
but not further defined’ accounted for 5.0 and 4.9 per cent destination of leavers across the 1991-1996, 1996-2001,
respectively. Dunedin accounted for the next largest group and 2001-2006 periods, and Auckland, which was also a
of arrivals at 3.9 per cent, followed by ‘overseas in 2008’ prominent destination for leavers across the 2001-2006
(2.8 per cent), Southland District (1.3 per cent), Gore (1.0 period.
per cent), then Auckland (0.9 per
Figure 5: Clutha’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013
cent).
The single-largest group of those
who had been living in the Clutha
District in 2008 but were living
elsewhere at the 2013 Census were
found to be living in the Dunedin
(6.6 per cent) followed by
Southland District, Central Otago,
Gore, and Invercargill (respectively
accounting for 1.3, 1.3, 1.2 and 1.1
per cent of leavers). It should be
noted that people overseas at the
time of the census cannot be
enumerated and are thus ‘missing’
Figure 3: Components flows - Clutha District 2008-2013
17,350
N I D E A D e m oCgLr U
a pT hHiAc SDnI Sa T
pR
s hI C
oT
t -N K
oE
. Y
5
C l uDt hE aM D
t , I JCu T
n eR E2N0 D
14
O iGsRt rAiPc H
S
Clutha’s Movers and Stayers
Components of Change by Component Flow
Start
Page 3
…
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
Components of Change by Age
Expected 2013 Population
Expected Deaths
Internal In-Migrants
Internal Out-Migrants
PLT Arrivals
PLT Departures
Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group
Actual 2013 Population
120.0
100.0
Percentage Change, 2011 - 2031
1,500
500
Births
1,000
-
15-24 years
80.0
25-39 years
60.0
40-54 years
40.0
20.0
55-64 years
0.0
65-74 years
-20.0
-500
Between 2008 and 2013, Clutha
experienced a modest net migration gain of young families.
0-14 years
2,000
Number
Figure 4 shows that between 2008
and 2013, all Clutha age groups
gained and lost people from both
internal and international (PLT)
sources. Minor net gains were
experienced at 0-9 and 25-39 years,
indicating the net arrival of young
families. There was also a minor gain
at 85-89 years (not shown on the
graph). Net migration loss was
characteristically high at 15-19 and
20-24 years of age.
Population Ageing
Figure 4: Component flows by age - Clutha District 2008-2013
75-84 years
-40.0
-1,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Age Group
Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Clutha District
Otago REGION
New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
85+ years
As elsewhere, declining birth rates,
increasing longevity, and—in
Clutha’s case—net migration loss,
are causing the population to age
structurally. Between 2011 and
2031, numbers at 0-14, 15-24, 4054 and 55-64 years are projected to
decline, and those at all ages 65+
years to increase. Fig ure 6 shows
that the trends for Clutha are not
that different from those for either
the Otago Region or total New
Zealand. Clutha can expect to have
more elderly than children by 2021,
the same as Otago, but five years
earlier than for total New Zealand.