NIDEA Brief No. 4
July 2014
Projections: Māori Futures
2006
45
40
39.3
34.5
35
2016
2026
37.8
31.8
Per cent
30
22.1
25
22.3
20
15
8.5
10
4.1
5
0
0-14
15-39
40-64
Age Group
65+
For Maori, growth will occur unevenly across the
different age groups, with the greatest increase at
the kaumatua ages. The number of older Maori
will more than double so that, by 2026, one out of
nine Maori will be aged at least 65 years (Figure
7). Tamariki will continue to make up a substantial,
though declining, proportion of the Maori
population, reflecting declining fertility and
gradual population ageing. The proportion of
Maori at the working ages (15-64 years) will
remain steady at around 60 per cent. It should be
noted that the projections shown here are based
on the 2006 estimated resident population (ERP)
of Maori. Revised projections based on the 2013
Census were not available at the time of writing.
Summary


In the 2013 Census, 598,602 individuals identified as ethnic Maori. They comprised nearly 15 per cent of
the New Zealand population responding to the ethnicity question. The Maori ancestry population was larger still at 668,724 persons. Maori have much higher demographic visibility than Indigenous peoples in the
other colonial settler states.
The number of Maori increased, on average, by 0.8 per cent per annum between 2006 and 2013. This was
significantly below the 2001-2006 annual growth rate (1.4 per cent), and partly reflects a decline in the
rate of natural increase (the excess of births over deaths).

In 2013 the Maori median age (23.9 years) was much younger than the New Zealand median age (38.0
years). The youthful Maori population offers a potential for a collateral “demographic dividend”, with benefits for Maori and New Zealand.

The number of Maori is projected to reach 811,000 by 2026, with the greatest increase at the kaumatua
ages. By 2026, the number of Maori and people from all Asian ethnic groups combined will be close to
parity.
References:
Jackson, N. 2011a. The demographic forces shaping New Zealand’s future. What population ageing [really] means. NIDEA
working paper No.1. Hamilton: University of Waikato.
Jackson, N. 2011b. Maori and the [potential] Demographic Dividend. NIDEA working paper No.2. Hamilton: University of
Waikato.
Statistics New Zealand. 2014. Post-enumeration survey: 2013. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand.
Statistics New Zealand. 2013. Total Fertility Rates, Maori and Total population, Annual December, 1921-2013.
Tahu Kukutai and Moana Rarere
The NIDEA Te Ao Hurihuri series uses data from the New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings to examine key
aspects of Maori population change.
Population Size
The New Zealand Census
Figure 1: Number and Proportion of Māori
provides at least three ways
NZ Māori Population
% of Total NZ
to identify as Maori: by
1,000,000
descent, ethnicity and iwi.
900,000
Each definition is
800,000
conceptually distinct and
700,000
Question Change
600,000
yields populations of
Definition Change
500,000
different sizes. Ethnicity is
400,000
the concept most widely
300,000
used in Maori official
200,000
100,000
statistics and in this brief.
Inside this issue:
16.0
12.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
0.0
comprise less than five per cent of the national
population and, in the United States, less than
two per cent. Although comparable in size with
Maori, Indigenous Australians comprise just 2.5
per cent of their national population.
Table 2: Number and size of Indigenous populations in the population Census, select countries, c. 2010
Number (n)
% of Total
Population (1)
14.9
4.2
2.5
1.7
Māori
598,605
Canada Aboriginal, First Nations, Inuit, Metis & Other
2,801,375
Australia Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander
548,368
American Indian & Alaska Native (alone or in combination)
5,220,579
Notes: (1) NZ percentage excludes NEI
Source: New Zealand Census of Population and Dwellings 2013; National Household Survey (Canada) 2011;
Australia Census of Population and Housing 2011; United States Census 2010
Age-Sex Structure 2
Size and Relative
Share of Age
Groups
3
Māori
Demographic
Dividend
3
Projections:
Māori Futures
4
Summary
4
2.0
Changing Census practices
make it difficult to analyse
Census year
Maori population trends
Source: NZ Census of Population & Dwellings, various years
over time as data are not
always comparable.
Notes: Māori included those defined as "any degree" Māori from 1926Complexities notwithstanding, 1981, and Maori ethnicity (alone or combined) from 1986. Census night popuFigure 1 clearly shows that
lation count used until 1991, then Usually Resident Population count.
Maori have made substantial
Maori share rises to 14.9 per cent. At 668,724
demographic gains over the last century. In
1926 Maori numbered about 70,000 and made persons, the Maori ancestry population was
up five per cent of the New Zealand population. larger still. The URP excludes those temporarily
overseas on Census night, as well as those
In 2013 there were 598,602 ethnic Maori,
missing (the “undercount”). The 2013 net
comprising 14.1 per cent of the Usually
Resident Population (URP). If we exclude non- Maori undercount (6.1 per cent) was almost
double the undercount in 2006 (3.1 per cent).
respondents to the ethnicity question, the
(SNZ 2014).
Indigenous Group
2
10.0
0
While the number of Maori is small compared to
Indigenous populations in North America, Maori
are unique in having a high level of
demographic visibility in their homeland (Table
1). In Canada, for example, Indigenous peoples
Population
Growth
14.0
%
Figure 7: Age-Group Share of Māori Population , 2006, 2016, 2063
TE AO HURIHURI
POPULATION: PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE
Number
Population projections provide a useful starting
Figure 6: Projected Māori Population, Series 6, 2006 (base) - 2026
point for anticipating future population change.
Under the medium series produced by Statistics
New Zealand, the number of Maori is projected to
reach 811,000 by 2026, with 697,000 and 937,000
as the lower and upper bounds (Figure 6). The
projected Maori growth rate of 1.3 per cent per
annum exceeds the European rate (0.4 per cent),
but is substantially lower than the expected
growth for both Asian and Pasifika peoples (3.4
per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively). For Maori
and Pasifika peoples, growth will continue to be
driven by natural increase; for Asian peoples
future growth will be driven almost entirely by
migration. Ethnic differences in growth rates have consequences for Maori demographic visibility. By 2026 the number
of Maori and people from all Asian ethnic groups combined will be close to parity.
Total
Population
4,242,048
33,476,688
21,507,717
308,745,538
National Institute of
Demographic and
Economic Analysis
(NIDEA)
Faculty of Arts &
Social Sciences,
University of Waikato
Private Bag 3105
Hamilton 3240,
New Zealand
Phone:
07 838 4040
E-mail:
[email protected]
ISSN 2382-039X
(Print)
ISSN 2382-0403
(Online)
NIDEA Brief No. 4
July 2014
Page 2
Page 3
NIDE
t eA aBor iheuf rN
i hou. r4i
4
P o p u l a t i o n : P a s t , pJ ur el ys e2n0t1&
Population Growth
Size and Relative Share of Age Groups
Figure 2: Average Annual Growth Rate for Māori and Total New Zealand, 1926 to 2013
The two-year delay in the Census due to
the Christchurch earthquakes means that
the Maori intercensal growth rate
between 2006 and 2013 is not comparable
with earlier five-year census periods. As
such, the average annual rates of growth
shown in Figure 2 are more informative.
Between 2006 and 2013 the number of
Maori increased, on average, by 0.8 per
cent per annum. This was significantly
below the 2001-2006 rate (1.4 per cent),
and partly reflects a decline in the rate of
natural increase (the excess of births over
deaths), as shown in Figure 3.
While the Maori population is structurally young, the number of older Maori has grown
significantly in the last decade. Between 2001 and 2013 the number of Maori aged 65
years and older almost doubled, from 17,637 to 32,184. The increase was largely owing
to improvements in survivorship and outpaced the growth of older people nationally. The
burgeoning population of older Maori expands the potential pool of those able to take up
kaumatua and kuia roles in whanau and communities. As more Maori reach advanced
ages, different forms of support, both social and material, will be needed to expand their
opportunities to live fulfilling lives.
35
Rate (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
Source: Infoshare DFM008AA & DMM003AA, various years
Years
Age-Sex Structure
Māori Ethnic Group, 2013
85+
Total NZ Population, 2013
80-84
70-74
Males
Females
70-74
65-69
60-64
Females
75-79
75-79
Males
85+
80-84
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
50-54
Age Groups
55-59
45-49
40-44
35-39
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
30-34
25-29
25-29
20-24
20-24
15-19
15-19
10-14
10-14
5-9
5-9
0-4
0-4
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Source: NZ Census of Population & Dwellings
0.0
%
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
%
2.0
4.0
40000
30000
20000
10000
Source: NZ Census of Population & Dwellings
65+
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
0
Age Groups
Intergenerational
relations is an
important feature
of Te Ao Maori
and is partly
influenced by the absolute and relative size of
the age groups. Figure 5 shows the large
increase in the number of older Maori between
2006 and 2013, as well as an absolute decline in
the number of Maori at the younger working
ages (25-39 years). This partly reflects the
effects of emigration. While the number of
tamariki (0-14 years) increased between 2006
and 2013 (from 199,920 to 202,314), their
overall proportion declined from 35.3 to 33.8
per cent.
The Potential for a Māori Demographic Dividend
The ageing of New Zealand’s population is largely driven by the ageing of the
Pakeha (NZ European) population, and accelerated by the outwards
migration of those aged 30 to 39 years. As the Pakeha ‘Baby Boomers’ retire
over the next twenty or so years, they will be replaced by relatively smaller
cohorts. Unless there is a very large and sustained increase in migration,
New Zealand is likely to face substantial labour shortages over the next 20 to
30 years, particularly in non-urban areas already subject to accelerated
ageing. All other factors remaining constant, the young will be in shortsupply but will benefit from increasing competition for their labour and
skills (Jackson 2011a).
For Maori, there are potential windfalls to be made. A large share of Maori
are at the ages in which most educational qualifications are gained (usually
15-24 years), or are entering the labour-market. While the proportion of
Maori aged 0-14 years has been declining since at least 2001, the Maori
share of the national population at those ages is still growing.
Figure 4: Age-Sex Structure, Māori and Total NZ, 2013
Age Groups
Along with size and growth, age structure is a core feature of Maori demography. At just under 24 years, the
Maori median age in 2013 was much
younger than the New Zealand median
age of 38.0 years. The different age
structures are evident in Figure 4. The
triangular shape of the Maori age-sex
pyramid, with the large base of tamariki (0-14)and rangatahi (15-19), contrasts sharply with the cylindrical
shape of the national age-sex structure.
50000
5-9
Definitional and question changes have also
impacted on Maori growth rates, along with
broader shifts in thinking about identity. Until
recently, Maori growth rates had outpaced
national growth rates owing to higher fertility. In
2013 the Maori Total Fertility Rate was 2.5 (TFR
of 2.1 is replacement fertility) versus nearly 2.0
nationally. While New Zealand has experienced a
long-term decline in the rate of natural increase
(Figure 3), births still outnumber deaths and net
migration gain provides an additional source of
growth. As an Indigenous people, Maori do not
have the option of population replenishment
through migration.
60000
10-14
40
2013
70000
0-4
45
2006
80000
Number
Time-series analysis shows the volatility
of Maori population growth over the last
century. The 1950s and 1960s were the decades of the greatest growth. Improvements in mortality coupled with high
fertility saw Maori growth rates peak at about 4.0 per cent per annum. Internationally such levels are now rarely seen,
even in many of the world’s least developed countries. The period of rapid growth ended with the onset of the Maori
fertility decline which began in the late 1960s
Figure 3: Rates of Natural Increase, Māori and Total NZ , 1926 to 2013
(SNZ 2013). Until that time, it was one of the most
dramatic fertility declines observed anywhere in
Total New Zealand
Māori
the world.
Figure 5: Number of Māori by Age Group, 2006 and 2013
6.0
8.0
In 2013, Maori comprised nearly one quarter of all New Zealand children; by
2026 the projected share will be around 29 per cent. The divergent Maori
and Pakeha age structures —one youthful, the other ageing—creates the
potential for what Jackson calls a “collateral Maori demographic dividend”
(2011b), with benefits not only for Maori, but for New Zealand generally. However, this widow of demographic
opportunity is finite. The potential to gain from a youthful Maori population will only be realised through immediate
strategic planning and investment in rangatahi Maori in areas such as education and training.