NIDEA Briefs No. 2
Waves and Troughs—Choppy Seas at School Age
Natalie Jackson
UNISA - Population Size and Growth
Inside this issue:
The Upper North Island Strategic Alliance (UNISA) encompasses the regional councils of
Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty, and the Waikato. The population of the UNISA Region has
grown steadily over the past twenty-seven years, from 1.53 million in 1986 to around 2.3 million
in 2011, an increase of 53 per cent (Figure 1). Continued steady growth is anticipated with the
Statistics New Zealand medium case projections indicating a population of just under 3 million by
2031 (+25 per cent).
3,500,000
Auckland currently
Projected
Observed
accounts for 63 per cent
3,000,000
and is projected to
2,500,000
increase its share to 6768 per cent by 2031.
2,000,000
Change at Census Area
Unit Level
2
Population Ageing
2
High (+35%)
1,500,000
Medium (+25%)
1,000,000
The growth of the overall UNISA region population does, however, occur in a context of widespread
—and deepening—depopulation across much of the country. Between 2006 and 2013, 35 per cent of
New Zealand’s Census Area Unit (CAU) populations declined or experienced zero growth, up from
25per cent across the period 2001-2006. Despite the presence of Auckland, 26 per cent of the UNISA
region’s 779 CAUs declined between 2006 and 2013, up from 16 per cent 2001-2006.
These trends are expected to continue, as population ageing reduces the proportion at reproductive
age, and the numbers at older ages come to exceed those at younger ages, leading to the end of
natural increase (more births than deaths), and for many regions, the end of growth/onset of
permanent depopulation. The four regional council populations comprising the UNISA region have
markedly differing age structures, and as elsewhere are ageing at different rates. Auckland has the
structurally youngest population with just 11.2 per cent aged 65+ years, and Northland the oldest (18
per cent). Almost half (47 per cent) of the region’s projected growth to 2031 will be at 65+ years. For
Auckland, just one-third of all growth will be at 65+ years. For the Waikato and the Bay of Plenty,
growth at 65+ years will account for 84 and 89 per cent of all growth respectively, while for
Northland it will account for all growth and partially offset decline at all other ages.
It is important to place these data in their global context. Across the next 17 years, overall growth in
the 58 More Developed Countries (MDCs) is expected to be less than 5 per cent (medium variant). At
65+ years, almost 100 million people will be added to the current 200 million (+49 per cent); all other
age groups 0-64 years are projected to decline by around 41 million (-4 per cent). In the UNISA
region, the population aged 65+ years will double in
size, while all other age groups combined will grow by
http://www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea/
about 15 per cent. New Zealand thus lags the field in
terms of structural ageing, but as 2013 Census data
confirm, the phenomenon is well underway.
500,000
2006 Boundaries
Figure 1: Population of
UNISA Region 19862011 and Projected to
2031
Projected Change by Age 3
The Big Picture—
UNISA in Context
3
Waves and Troughs—
Choppy Seas
4
Summary
4
Growth Alongside Decline
The growth of the overall UNISA
region population does, however, occur
in a context of widespread—and
deepening—decline across much of the
country (Figure 2). Between 2006 and
2013, 35 pre cent of New Zealand’s
Census Area Unit (CAU) populations
declined or experienced zero growth, up
from 25.4 per cent across the period
2001-2006. Despite the presence of
Auckland, 26 per cent of the UNISA
region’s 779 CAUs declined between
2006 and 2013, up from 16 per cent
2001-2006. Small adjustments to these
Usually-Resident Population (URP) data
will be made by Statistics New Zealand
to account for ‘missing persons’ (see
page 2), but will not alter the picture
appreciably.
2031
2021
2016
2011
2006
2001
1996
1991
0
1986
Summary
The population of the UNISA Region has grown steadily over the past 27 years, from 1.53 million in
1986 to 2.3 million in 2011 (+53 per cent). Continued steady growth is anticipated with the Statistics
New Zealand medium case projections indicating a population of just under 3 million by 2031 (+25
per cent). Auckland currently accounts for 63 per cent and is projected to increase its share to 67-68
per cent by 2031.
Low (+16%)
2026
Over the next 5 years, past
demographic trends will deliver a
surge of students to New Zealand’s
high schools, while there will be
around 20,000 fewer school
leavers, and a further 8,000 fewer
the following 5 years.
Figure 7: Change
(per cent) at 1318 years of age,
2001-06 and 2006
-13, Total New
Zealand by
UNISA REGION—KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
Number
Population projections are often mistrusted. Figure 7 provides
ample evidence that the projections reported in this Brief are
unfolding as indicated. Between 2001and 2006, most of the nation’s
67 Territorial Authority Areas (TAs) saw an increase in their 13-18
year old populations, the legacy of relatively high birth-rates around
1991 (the so-called ‘baby blip’ or ‘baby boom echo’). Declining
birth-rates across the rest of the 1990s and into the early 2000s are
now seeing a decline at these ages, the map for 2006-2013 clearly
showing that almost all TAs experienced the trend. Over the next 5
years, growth at these ages will return, but it will be both patchy and
temporary, as a recent baby blip—born 2002-2008—reaches those
ages and flows through New Zealand’s high school classrooms. In
the interim, New Zealand will see around 20,000 fewer school
leavers (15-19 years of age), and a further 8,000 fewer the following
5 years. Numbers will then similarly—but again only temporarily—
surge.
March 2014
Figure 2: Change
(per cent at Census
Area Unit level) for
the Usually
Resident
Population of New
Zealand
National Institute of
Demographic and
Economic Analysis,
Faculty of Arts & Social
Sciences,
The University of
Waikato
Private Bay 3105
Hamilton 3240, New
Zealand
E-mail:
[email protected]
ISSN 2230-4436
(Print)
ISSN 2230-4444
(Online)
NIDEA Briefs No. 2
UNISA Region—Key demographic
Page 2
Page 3
NIDEA Briefs No. 2
UNISA Region—Key demographic
Change at Census Area Unit level
Projected Change by Age
Figure 3 provides an overview of the extent of CAU level decline for the four UNISA regional councils. Of 85 CAUs in Northland,
the period 2006-2013 saw almost half decline in size, up from 29 per cent (2001-2006). For the Bay of Plenty the proportions were 44
per cent and 28 per cent respectively, and Waikato, 25.5 per cent and 40 per cent. The increase in the number of CAUs declining was
significantly lower for Auckland. It should be noted that these data are for the Census Usually Resident Population (URP) and are
thus missing an adjustment for people temporarily overseas on Census night, and Census undercount, which may alter these
percentages slightly. However the URP data are comparable over time, and thus the trends are internally consistent.
The projected growth for the UNISA region of around 25 per cent by 2031 indicated in Figure 1 is broken down by 5-year age group
in Figure 5. These data show that—as elsewhere—growth will disproportionately occur at older ages; almost half (47 per cent) of the
region’s growth to 2031 will be at 65+ years. However the relative youth of Auckland shown in Figure 4 dampens these trends. For
Auckland, just one-third of all growth will be at 65+ years. For the Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, growth at 65+ years will account
for 84 and 89 per cent of all growth respectively, while for Northland it will account for all growth and partially offset decline at all
other ages. Nationally, two-thirds of growth will be at 65+ years.
Figure 3: Percentage of UNISA Region Usually Resident Census Area Unit (CAU) populations
declining in size, 2001-2006 and 2006-2013 by regional council and total number of CAUs
Figure 5: Projected change by age (per cent) 2011-2031, UNISA Region
140
60
49.4
33.9
29.4
25.5
2001-2006
2006-2013
13.1
0
Northland
(85)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
6.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
6.0
Females
Males
Age Group (years)
Females
Males
Age Group (years)
6.0
6.0
Bay of Plenty
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Percentage at each age group
Source: Jackson/Statistics NZ Estimated Subnational Population at 30th June
Figure 4: Age-Sex Structure 1996 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars), UNISA
regional council populations
Waikato (165) Bay of Plenty
(118)
Population Ageing
Females
Males
Age Group (years)
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Waikato
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Auckland
(411)
Auckland
Females
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Males
Age Group (years)
Northland
20
6.0
The four regional council populations
comprising the UNISA region have
markedly differing age structures. As
elsewhere they are also ageing at different
rates. Auckland has the structurally youngest
population with just 11.2 per cent aged 65+
years, followed by the Waikato (14.8 per
cent), the Bay of Plenty (17.6 per cent), and
Northland (18 per cent) — nationally the
figure is 14.2 per cent. As can be seen from
Figure 4, all have aged substantially since
1996 (unshaded bars). This is particularly so
for Northland and the Bay of Plenty, due on
the one hand to a disproportionate net
migration loss of young adults, and on the
other, to net migration gains of older
working age adults and retirees. The Waikato
also experiences these trends, but less so. By
contrast, Auckland makes disproportionate
gains at 15-24 years.
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
0
7.1
10
40
20-24
20
60
15-19
30
28.0
80
10-14
40
100
0-4
Percentage
The four regional
council populations
comprising the UNISA
region differ markedly
by age and rate of
population ageing
44.1
5-9
50
Percentage change
120
While the population
of the UNISA Region
is relatively youthful
compared to the
national picture,
almost half of the
growth 2011-2031
will be at 65+ years
Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand
by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]
The Big Picture—UNISA in a Global Context
Globally, nationally, and locally,
demographic change is ushering in a
dramatically new set of
challenges—and opportunities for
those who proactively engage with
these trends. Across the next 17
years, overall growth in the 58 More
Developed Countries (MDCs) is
expected to be less than 5 per cent
(Medium Variant). At 65+ years,
almost 100 million people will be
added to the current 200 million
(+49 per cent); all other age groups
0-64 years are projected to decline
by around 41 million (-4 per cent).
The latter is the key pool from
which the MDCs compete for their
skilled migrants, and this
competition will affect New
Zealand’s ability to ensure the levels
of migration it has experienced in
the past—and assumed in the
projections reported here.
Figure 6: Projected contribution to growth* 2011-2031
Projected Total Change
2011-2031 (per cent)
Projected change at 65+ Projected change—all
years
other age groups combined (0-64 years)
MDCs (58)
+49 per cent
-4 per cent
(4.5 per cent)
(+98 million)
(-41 million)
UNISA Region
99.8per cent
15.3 per cent
(25.5 per cent)
(+281,130)
(+313,790)
Auckland
112per cent
23 per cent
(32.5 per cent)
(+175,790)
(+307,010)
‘The Rest’ (UNISA) (13.2
per cent)
82.7per cent
0.9 per cent
(+105,340)
(+6,780)
*Jackson/US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]