Section 4
Intersection Evaluation
The majority of this report is a summary of the numbers, types, and patterns of crashes.
That information can be used to identify overall mitigation and safety efforts throughout
the City. Another important element is to use the crash data to identify specific locations
for potential improvements.
Total crash numbers at any location (either in a chart or through crash density maps)
identify the locations where the most crashes occur. While helpful information, because
volumes and other elements at specific locations vary widely, it’s difficult to draw relevant
conclusions from this data.
Traffic Operations staff conducts detailed analysis to identify intersections where there
are more crashes than expected taking into account traffic volumes, roadway geometry,
type of traffic control etc.
Traffic crashes are at least partially deterministic (i.e. factors affecting crash potential can
be controlled). At the same time crashes are, to some extent, random events. This
random nature of crashes makes it difficult to determine if a location is truly a problem
versus a location where normal variations lead to a high crash frequency during the
observation period. In order to identify locations that truly warrant further investigation it is
helpful to use a methodology that accounts for the somewhat random nature of crashes.
In 2010 the Transportation Research Board (TRB) and the American Association of
State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) published the Highway Safety
Manual (HSM). The HSM includes a statistical approach used to account for regression
to the mean bias to identify locations that have a higher than expected crash frequency
even after accounting for random variation. That approach is applied to intersections in
Fort Collins.
The method utilizes a calibrated model to predict the number of crashes at a location
given the traffic volumes, the roadway geometry, and the type of intersection control. This
prediction is then compared to the actual number of crashes at the location (adjusted to
account for regression to the mean). The more the actual adjusted number of crashes
exceeds the number of crashes predicted by the model the more likely it is that a location
has an unusually high number of crashes.
City staff does an annual statistical evaluation of intersections in Fort Collins using three
years of data (in this report: 2014 – 2016). Almost 250 intersections were evaluated with
46% having an excess crash cost (versus 54% with a negative crash cost (indicating less
crashes than predicted)). The table on the following page shows the 50 intersections
(ranked by excess crash costs) with the greatest excess crash costs. (The top 10 are
shaded darker, and the next 15 are shaded lighter.) Since injury crashes have higher
crash costs associated with them, the ranking method gives more weight to locations with
more injury crashes compared to locations with primarily “fender benders”.
Each of these intersections is reviewed in more detail to look for specific types and trends
of crashes. Staff works to identify potential countermeasures to address recurring
patterns if present. Note that when considering possible safety projects the cost of
specific improvements needs to be considered in order to determine if the benefit will
outweigh the cost.
Annual Roadway Safety Report
30
Intersection Excess Crash Costs (2014 – 2016)
Table 6
Intersection excess
cost (2014-2016)
Intersection
STREET1
(north/south)
STREET2
(east/west)
Input Data
(3 years of data)
Major
Street
Volume
Minor
Street
Volume
Total
AADT
Model
Predicted
Crashes/
Year
Excess Crash Cost
Model
Predicted
FI
Crashes/
Year
Adjusted
Actual
Crashes/
Year
Adjusted
Actual FI
Crashes/
Year
Excess
PDO
Crashes/
Year
Excess
FI
Crashes/
Year
Excess
Expected
Crash
Value ($)
College Ave
College Ave
Horsetooth
Trilby Rd
42,432
33,105
24,689
13,839
67,121
46,944
42.4
25.2
8.0
5.0
57.2
32.0
12.4
9.6
10.41
2.24
4.41
4.54
$643,408
$577,450
Lemay
Shields St
Horsetooth (W)
Prospect Rd
29,858
31,372
24,833
22,015
54,691
53,387
21.9
30.5
4.0
6.0
25.5
38.4
6.7
8.0
0.96
5.84
2.65
1.99
$333,328
$302,276
Lemay
Harmony Rd
48,367
15,750
64,117
35.3
6.7
44.0
8.4
7.02
1.76
$285,874
Lemay
Riverside
26,186
15,335
41,521
21.9
4.4
30.1
6.1
6.53
1.63
$265,614
Shields St
College Ave
College Ave
Drake Rd
Swallow
Monroe
29,649
43,122
45,743
22,690
7,950
4,858
52,339
51,072
50,601
29.6
21.4
16.5
5.8
4.4
3.5
38.0
28.8
27.0
7.3
5.8
4.5
6.83
6.09
9.48
1.51
1.36
1.02
$253,333
$227,068
$220,798
Mason St
Raintree
Mason
Harmony Rd
Drake
Mulberry St
32,811
20,902
25,983
7,680
2,410
4,913
40,491
23,312
30,896
18.7
3.2
8.2
3.8
0.9
1.6
29.6
5.3
13.8
4.3
2.2
2.5
10.37
0.79
4.74
0.51
1.26
0.85
$166,586
$161,824
$151,579
Shields St
Ziegler
Mulberry St
Horsetooth
19,083
18,106
17,287
6,206
36,370
24,312
16.9
8.8
3.4
0.4
20.5
16.6
4.3
0.3
2.65
7.9
0.89
-0.1
$135,827
$133,274
College Ave
City Park
Riverside
Drake Rd
Elizabeth St
Prospect Rd
45,364
16,733
30,122
26,558
4,722
8,877
71,922
21,455
38,999
46.4
7.7
18.8
8.6
1.6
3.9
56.2
9.4
22.8
8.9
2.5
4.5
9.51
0.88
3.39
0.30
0.89
0.61
$133,243
$117,000
$108,955
Timberline
College Ave
Lemay
Mtn Vista
Foothills
Pennock
7,059
48,062
24,896
5,910
2,664
3,970
12,969
50,726
28,866
1.7
11.8
10.7
0.5
2.6
2.3
4.3
19.6
11.7
1.2
2.8
3.1
1.88
7.52
0.26
0.72
0.23
0.83
$107,139
$103,835
$103,704
College Ave
College Ave
Vine
Kensington
26,749
36,679
6,443
3,385
33,192
40,064
9.7
11.3
1.9
2.6
11.2
14.5
2.6
3.1
0.79
2.66
0.71
0.53
$95,248
$92,051
Linden
Mason St
Mathews
Remington
Vine
Horsetooth
Mulberry
Mulberry St
6,418
27,604
24,152
23,792
2,872
7,289
1,000
4,294
9,290
34,893
25,152
28,086
1.4
15.8
2.5
10.6
0.5
3.3
0.7
2.3
3.5
20.0
4.9
11.5
1.1
3.7
1.2
2.9
1.43
3.75
1.86
0.17
0.62
0.42
0.56
0.68
$89,735
$89,298
$86,961
$84,692
College
Manhattan
Timberline
McClelland
College Ave
Shields St
College Ave
College Ave
Triangle
Horsetooth
Horsetooth
Horsetooth
Troutman
Casa Grande
Laurel
Cherry
32,702
26,006
30,092
28,491
38,392
31,529
33,108
23,036
3,308
4,150
19,995
2,369
6,832
1,137
8,363
7,405
36,010
30,156
50,087
30,860
45,224
32,666
41,471
30,441
2.9
11.3
28.2
5.9
18.0
4.3
18.3
13.5
0.6
2.4
5.6
1.2
3.8
0.9
4.0
2.8
3.6
11.9
28.3
9.2
19.5
6.8
23.5
17.9
1.3
3.1
6.3
1.6
4.4
1.3
4.2
3.1
-0.07
-0.17
-0.56
2.90
1.03
2.15
5.01
4.13
0.70
0.70
0.72
0.40
0.53
0.41
0.17
0.24
$84,630
$84,240
$82,422
$78,529
$75,246
$71,685
$71,096
$70,797
Snow Mesa
Timberline
College
9th (Lemay)
Harmony Rd
Bighorn
Smokey
Buckingham
51,074
29,053
37,262
16,354
6,179
1,850
500
1,518
57,253
30,903
37,762
17,872
20.7
3.7
1.9
2.3
4.2
1.0
0.4
0.6
19.3
5.5
2.2
2.8
4.9
1.4
0.9
1.1
-2.05
1.32
-0.15
0.00
0.73
0.45
0.53
0.49
$68,811
$68,221
$62,800
$60,143
Shields
Shields St
Overland
Timberline
Shields St
Stover (E)
Lemay
Lemay
Shields
Shields
City Park
College Ave
Westward
Raintree
Elizabeth
Vermont
Plum
Prospect
Prospect Rd
Horsetooth (E)
Wabash
Davidson
Mulberry
Fossil Creek
37,315
29,015
11,137
32,428
31,964
24,972
30,114
28,664
27,802
30,825
16,640
38,626
882
5,589
2,275
2,964
3,612
1,543
25,038
14,989
893
1,899
3,936
2,252
38,197
34,604
13,412
35,392
35,576
26,515
55,152
43,653
28,695
32,724
20,576
40,878
2.2
14.5
0.7
11.5
12.6
1.8
31.5
16.2
2.6
3.9
2.3
11.3
0.5
3.0
0.1
2.5
2.7
0.4
6.2
3.0
0.7
1.0
0.5
2.4
3.4
15.5
2.5
9.2
17.4
6.3
34.1
17.6
4.5
4.5
5.3
12.1
0.9
3.5
0.5
3.2
2.7
0.4
6.4
3.4
1.0
1.4
0.6
2.7
0.79
0.60
1.39
-3.07
4.76
4.45
2.39
1.10
1.61
0.22
2.86
0.53
0.41
0.42
0.35
0.72
0.05
0.05
0.22
0.33
0.29
0.39
0.15
0.33
$57,496
$57,229
$56,723
$56,665
$53,931
$51,679
$51,352
$51,303
$51,221
$49,239
$46,574
$45,127
AADT = Annualized Average Daily Traffic
FI = Fatal / Injury Crashes
PDO = Property Damage Only Crashes
Annual Roadway Safety Report
XXX = top 10 intersections
XXX = next 15 intersections
31
Intersection Locations with Most Excess Crash
Costs (2014 – 2016)
Figure 43
Map of intersections
with most excess
crashes (2014-2016)
Map source: Google
Top 10 Intersections with most excess crash costs
Next 15 Intersections with most excess crash costs
Annual Roadway Safety Report
32
Intersection Maps, Trends and Patterns
In addition to identifying intersections with higher than expected crash numbers and
severity, a review of maps, trends and patterns for specific intersections can also be
helpful.
GIS Based Data
Crash information is geo-coded and can be evaluated through
mapping efforts. This allows for a visual depiction of crash
numbers at specific locations. Maps can be created for
specific crash types such as bicycle or pedestrian crashes.
Care should be taken to understand that ’hot spots’ on the
maps are simple number based, and neither correlated to
volumes, nor necessarily indicative of statistically based
higher than expected crash locations. The maps may be best
used to target areas with high incidences for enforcement.
The heat maps of overall crashes as well as a few of the most
prevalent severe crash types (bicycle, right angle, approach
turn, and pedestrian) are posted to the City’s Traffic
Operations safety page at fcgov.com/traffic. Other maps can
be created on a case by case basis by request.
Changes in Excess Crash Costs
Intersection screening in the City has been done since 2009. Reviewing the trends of
excess crash costs can identify changing conditions and safety at specific locations. The
tables below indicate the intersections with significant changes in excess crash costs,
both positively and negatively. The comparison was made using the last six years of
data (2011-2016). Excess crash cost for three years of data (2011-2013) and again
(2014-2016) were compared. All crash costs are adjusted to reflect 2016 dollars.
Intersection
STREET1
(N/S)
Timberline
Boardwalk
College
Shields
Lemay
Shields
Shields
Taft Hill
Timberline
JFK
Timberline
Shields
College
STREET2
(E/W)
Prospect
Harmony
Drake
Stuart
Mulberry
Horsetooth
Elizabeth
Horsetooth
Drake
Harmony
Horsetooth
Plum
Foothills
Table 7
Intersections with
largest decreasing
crash costs (i.e. less
crashes) 2011/2013
and 2014/2016
2014-2016
2011-2013
Change in
Notes / Comments
Excess Crashes & Cost
Excess Crashes & Cost
Crashes and Cost
Changes Implemented
PDOs
/ Year
4.08
3.28
9.51
-0.16
3.02
3.01
7.71
-0.66
-3.67
-1.32
-0.56
4.76
7.52
FIs /
Year
-0.91
-0.16
0.30
-0.32
-1.13
-0.84
-0.27
-0.05
0.10
-0.29
0.72
0.05
0.23
Excess
Expected
Crash
Value ($)
-$70,305
$13,707
$133,243
-$40,100
-$107,189
-$72,241
$44,576
-$12,398
-$25,384
-$49,342
$82,422
$53,931
$103,835
PDO
s/
Year
5.49
1.97
4.30
0.80
0.23
-1.48
7.20
2.63
-3.56
-0.68
5.76
4.26
7.79
FIs /
Year
2.68
3.07
2.80
1.31
0.57
0.95
1.16
0.92
1.24
0.79
1.32
1.12
1.14
Excess
Expected
Crash
Value ($)
$382,318
$395,027
$384,829
$167,450
$72,136
$101,258
$214,119
$139,224
$115,899
$89,376
$219,788
$179,657
$218,222
in
PDO
-1.42
1.31
5.21
-0.96
2.79
4.50
0.51
-3.29
-0.11
-0.65
-6.32
0.50
-0.27
in F/I
-3.59
-3.23
-2.49
-1.62
-1.70
-1.79
-1.43
-0.97
-1.15
-1.08
-0.60
-1.07
-0.91
Change in
Excess
Cost
-$452,622
-$381,319
-$251,585
-$207,550
-$179,324
-$173,499
-$169,543
-$151,622
-$141,283
-$138,717
-$137,365
-$125,726
-$114,387
Rebuilt- summer 2016
Restriping-removed offset lefts
Buffered Bike Lanes, 10' Lanes
Rebuilt capital project '15.
Underpass under constr.'17
SB Right Turn Lane added
Intersection Capital Project 2015
Mall recon. limited volumes
FI = Fatal / Injury Crashes
PDO = Property Damage Only Crashes
Annual Roadway Safety Report
33
Intersection
2014-2016
2011-2013
Change in
Notes / Comments
Excess Crashes & Cost
Excess Crashes & Cost
Crashes and Cost
Changes Implemented
PDO
s/
Year
FIs /
Year
Excess
Expected
Crash
Value ($)
in F/I
Change in
Excess
Cost
$265,614
-3.49
-1.55
-$224,379
10.02
3.18
$489,993
1.51
$253,333
3.10
-0.85
-$72,453
3.73
2.36
$325,785
2.24
4.54
$577,450
3.94
1.99
$282,565
-1.70
2.56
$294,885
3.39
0.61
$108,955
-1.52
-1.25
-$168,233
4.91
1.86
$277,188
Prospect
Horsetooth
5.84
3.75
1.99
0.42
$302,276
$89,298
1.77
-1.03
0.25
-1.11
$48,238
-$145,661
4.07
4.78
1.74
1.53
Added complexity due to MAX?
7.51
10.41
-0.25
4.41
$44,921
$643,408
5.44
8.64
-1.97
2.69
-$185,579
$415,232
2.07
1.76
1.72
1.72
$228,177
Safety $ for re-build received
Lemay
Timberline
Harmony
Horsetooth
Horsetooth
(W)
Harmony
Vermont
$254,038
$234,959
$230,501
Shields
STREET1
(N/S)
STREET2
(E/W)
PDOs
/ Year
FIs /
Year
Lemay
Riverside
6.53
1.63
Shields
Drake Rd
6.83
College
Trilby Rd
Riverside
Prospect
Shields
Mason
College
College
Excess
Expected
Crash
Value ($)
in
PDO
0.96
2.65
$333,328
-0.95
1.09
$123,839
1.91
1.56
$209,489
7.02
-3.07
1.76
0.72
$285,874
$56,665
4.66
-4.07
0.32
-0.75
$85,647
-$133,139
2.35
1.01
1.45
1.47
$200,226
Raintree
0.60
0.42
$57,229
-2.33
-0.68
-$106,690
2.93
1.10
$163,919
Lemay
Manhattan
Pennock
Horsetooth
0.26
-0.17
0.83
0.70
$103,704
$84,240
-3.20
0.08
-0.07
-0.48
-$41,369
-$58,128
3.46
-0.25
0.90
1.19
$145,073
$142,369
College
McClelland
Swallow
Horsetooth
Horsetooth
(E)
6.09
2.90
1.36
0.40
$227,068
$78,529
2.20
1.67
0.57
-0.43
$92,180
-$35,898
3.88
1.23
0.78
0.84
$134,889
$114,427
1.10
0.33
$51,303
-0.75
-0.44
-$60,715
1.85
0.76
$112,018
Lemay
Lemay
Added traffic - Mulberry Bridge
Detour
Right turn lanes added - summer
2016
Safety $ for re-build received
Added traffic - Mulberry Bridge
Detour
$189,804
FI = Fatal / Injury Crashes
PDO = Property Damage Only Crashes
Comments are noted in cases where a significant change was made to the intersection
during the evaluation period. These notes may not necessarily be the causal factor for
the change in excess cost. However, each location should be reviewed in more detail to
try to determine contributing factors to either improved safety or concern.
Lanes narrowed to 10 ft-added
bike buffers
Added complexity due to MAX?
Table 8
Intersections with
largest increasing
crash costs (i.e. more
crashes) 2011/2013
and 2014/2016
Interesting finds include:
• Intersections rebuilt with capital projects tend to see a safety improvement
(Lemay/Mulberry, and Timberline/Horsetooth)
• Intersections with significantly added traffic due to detours in other locations tend
to see a significant increase in excess crash costs (Lemay/Riverside,
Riverside/Prospect)
• Arterial intersections along the MAX line and Mason Trail that required added
complexity to already congested areas tended to see an increase in crashes.
Annual Roadway Safety Report
34
Recognizing Patterns in Crash Types
The table below identifies intersections where a pattern of crash types are identifiable.
The analysis is a statistical analysis developed by the Colorado Department of
Transportation. Some intersections may be listed in more than one category. For
instance, Whedbee and Mulberry is listed under both Right Angle crashes and Red Light
Running crashes, the causes of which may be related. This more detailed information
about patterns of crashes can aid in pin-pointing mitigation measures.
Approach Turn Crashes
Cook
Mulberry
College
Lake
College
Mason/Palmer
College
Troutman
Timberline Carpenter
Lemay
Drake
College
Swallow
Snow Mesa Harmony
Right Angle
Overland Elizabeth
Lemay
Poudre River
Edinburgh Drake
Mason
Magnolia
Shields
Wabash
Meldrum
Laporte
Mathews Mulberry
WorthingtonCentre
Mason
Maple
College
Kensington
Remington Elizabeth
Remington Prospect
Lemay
Oakridge
Whedbee Mulberry
College
Mountain
Rear End
Overland
College
Lemay
College
Timberline
Boardwalk
Timberline
College
Shields
Corbett
McMurray
Timberline
CR 42 C
Harmony
Harmony
Monroe
Harmony
Harmony
Prospect
Fossil Creek
Plum
Harmony
Harmony
Kechter
Annual Roadway Safety Report
Table 9
Pedestrian
Shields
City Park
Linden
Remington
University
Elizabeth
Jefferson
Mulberry
Intersection with
higher than expected
particular crash types
(2014-2016)
Bicycle
Shields
Shields
College
Lemay
Lemay
Wheaton
College
Mason
City Park
Pitkin
Bennett
Lake
Whalers/Wheaton
Haxton
Harmony
Thunderbird
Laurel
Elizabeth
Single Vehicle
Timberline
Timberline
Taft Hill
Riverside
Mtn Vista
Custer
Drake
Mulberry
Snow and Ice
Taft Hill
College
Loomis
Shields
Drake
Skyway
Mulberry
Mountain
Alcohol
Stover
Mulberry
Red Light Running
College
Whedbee
Remington
Remington
Meldrum
Taft Hill
Kensington
Mulberry
Prospect
Mulberry
Mulberry
Mulberry
35