Matakuliah : V0162 - Pengantar Industri Hospitality dan
Pariwisata
Tahun
: 2008
Future Trends of Tourism
(Harapan Masa Depan Pariwisata)
Week 13
Subject
- Tourism in the 3rd millenium (Pariwisata pada Milenium ke-3)
- The world of tourism in 2020 (Pariwisata dunia pada 2020)
- Forces impacting the future of tourism (Kekuatan-kekuatan
yang mempengaruhi pariwisata di masa depan)
- The tourists of the future (Wisatawan di masa depan)
- The changing nature of tourism products (Perubahan
karakteristik produk pariwisata)
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Future Trends of Tourism
Week 13
Objectives:
On completion of this lesson, the students will be
able to:
- Examine forecast concerning the growth of international
tourism
- Identify the major global forces that are shaping the
tourism of tomorrow
- Understand the positive and negative impacts on tourism
markets and on the ability of destinations to respond to
the demand of these markets
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Tourism in the Third Millennium
Week 13
• There has been rapid growth and development of tourism
over the past half century. As noted by WTO (World
Tourism Organization)
– Since 1950, tourist activity has risen from 25 million to 760
million arrivals in 2005. International tourism receipts have
been risen from US2.1 billion to US$514 billion in 2003
– International tourism receipts grew faster than world trade in
1980s and new constitute a higher proportion of the value of
the world exports than all sectors other than crude
petroleum/ petroleum products and motor vehicles/ parts/
accessories
– Expert forecast stated that the number of tourist worldwide
will increase from 668 million in the year 2000 to 1,516
billion in the year 2020.
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The World of Tourism in 2020
Week 13
Forecast 2005 – 2020
• Europe will remain the largest receiving region, eventhough the
market share will decline from 59% to 45%
• East Asia and the Pacific, increasing at 7% per annum, will pass
the Americas, holding a 27% market share in 2020 against 18% by
the Americas
• Africa, the Middle East and South Asia market shares will increase
to 5%, 4% and 1% respectively in 2020
• WTTC research shows that some 269.5 million people around the
world will be employed in jobs that exist because of demand
generated by travel and tourism by 2015
• Travel and tourism is driving, directly and indirectly, more than 10%
of employment today, globally, regionally and nationally.
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
WTO’s Forecast of International Tourist Arrivals Worldwide and
By Region 2010 – 2020
Tourist Arrival (millions)
Regions
2010
2020
Europe
527
717
East Asia/ Pacific
231
438
Americas
195
284
Africa
46
75
Middle East
37
69
South Asia
11
19
1,047
1,602
World
Source: Goeldner and Ritchie (2006 : p.556)
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Forces Impacting the Future of Tourism
Week 13
• Economic
– Based on WTO report, the number of international tourist
arrivals for the entire year is estimated to reach around 10%
– Despite the current economic condition, tourism can
optimistically anticipate continued moderate-to-good overall
rates of global economic growth of the traditional
economies, but with an emerging importance of certain
economies such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and
Russia
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Forces Impacting the Future of Tourism
Week 13
• The continued growth of “Super-Europe”
– As of May 2004, EU (European Union) nearly doubled in
geographic size, and vastly expanded its cultural and linguistic
scope, with the long-awaited addition of 10 new member countries
(Cyprus, the Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia)
• Socioenvironmental awareness
– Policy makers in tourism must know acknowledge that
development in the future will have to be compatible with the
environment
– Things to be aware of include the use of land, pollution etc
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Forces Impacting the Future of Tourism
Week 13
• Technology
– The world in 2020 will be characterized by the penetration of
technology into all aspects of life (WTO)
– In brief, tourism is now coming face to face with the realities of the
massive advances in technology that have occurred over the past
several decades
– The use of internet by travel industry to market tourism products
– Although technology has been used in enhancing performance
and effectiveness (e.g. computerized reservation system, air
control technology), there has been a great reluctant to replace
human service providers with technologically driven alternatives.
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Forces Impacting the Future of Tourism
Week 13
• The Continuing Evolution of Air Travel
– The future of air travel is likely to see a continuation of the
growth of low cost, reduced service air carriers
– Boeing believes the future need for air travel will be for
smaller aircraft. Its 787 Dreamliner, said to be the superefficient plane of tomorrow, will have three configurations
flying between 6,500 and 15,700 kilometers and with
passenger capacities of 217 to 289.
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Forces Impacting the Future of Tourism
Week 13
• Terrorism and Crisis Management Becomes Integral to
Travel and Tourism
– Why do terrorists attack tourism centers?
• First, an attack on a tourism center is an attack on a nation’s
entire economy
• Second, tourism is highly media-oriented – terrorism seeks
publicity and tourist attractions like sporting events and
festivals are likely to have media already at the site
• Third, tourist attractions such as museums, historic sites and
beautiful scenery represent the spirit and essence of a nation
• Fourth, tourist sports provide terrorists with relative anonymity.
Security and police rarely know the identities or motivations of
visitors at sites or events.
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
Forces Impacting the Future of Tourism
Week 13
– Increasing security will be a must for airlines, hotels,
restaurants and other tourism services
– The tourism industry must put in place a crisis management
system that is capable of dealing with a wide range of
catastrophes. Examples of recent tourism-related crisis:
• Britain: foot-and-mouth disease in cattle
• Cuba, Haiti and Florida: hurricanes
• Bali: nightclub bombing
• China: SARS
• Thailand: avian (bird) flu
• Egypt: Luxor killing of tourists
• Asia: Tsunami
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• Emergence of the Knowledge-Based Society and
Workforce
– They will be seeking more individualized experiences,
often characterized as special-interest travel
– Such travelers are more interested in enriching their lives
through experiences rather than hands-off entertainment
– They seek authentic, interactive, highly involved, quality
travel experiences, focusing on in-depth coverage of the
special interest topic or destination at hand
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• Demographic Shifts
– Leisurely, rather than highly programmed, vacations will
increase
– More grandparents will be traveling with children
– Many individuals will tend to turn inward toward family
and friends as they seek protection in a hostile world
– Concern for health and medical travel facilities will be
driven by both physiological and psychological needs of
older travelers
– Travelers will seek “home hotels” where that can easily
find most things they need (including shoes and clothing),
so as to minimize the luggage size
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• Demographic Shifts
– Educational hotels will meet the growing desire of
tourists both to learn and to acquire new skills
– The increase number of people unmarried will also
change the need for travel facilities, events and
activities that were designed to meet the needs of
the traditional family vacation
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• The Long-Predicted “Chinese Elephant” is Starting to
Become a Tourism Reality
– 2005 may be the year when mainland Chinese really start
to see the world
– Travel industry expert forecast that the number of
Chinese outbound travelers will continue to grow by at
least 20% each year
– In 2002 Chinese international travelers spent $15.4
billion, an average of $1,200 per person
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• Diversity within a Homogeneous World
– A visit to any major city in the world demonstrates how
information, economic pressures and the tendency to
imitate has left the world “less different” than it was
decades ago. However, the human entity, while
recognizing the pragmatic value of sameness, is
determined at the same time to make every effort to
preserve and enhance unique identity
• The Quest for Stability and Security
– Tourists are looking for stability and security when
visiting an area/ a country.
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• The Arrival of Perpetual Tourism
– A select segment of the world’s wealthy are always on
holidays
– Examples: those who use RV (Recreational Vehicle) as
their home and those who live on cruise ships
• The Emergence of Extreme/ Adventure/ Disaster
or “Dark” Tourism
– The visit to the site of the disaster (floods, earthquakes,
tornados and hurricanes) or even mass killing (such as
Auschwitz), create a unique type of destination
experience that some travelers find exciting
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Tourist of the Future
Week 13
• Change from a “Service” to an “Experience”
Economy
– Consumers seek a quality of experience from an
investment of their time and money
– Travelers seek a quality “experience chain” that links
together the many service components of a complex
travel experience
• The Evolution of Leisure Time
– The development of more flexible working hours in
many countries
– Paid holidays in most developed countries
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Changing Nature of Tourism Products
Week 13
• Beach and other resorts that provide a range of activities and
attractions in a good environment, are easy to reach, are
pleasant to be in, and have good communications to home
and office
• Cities with good transport links, user-friendly airports and an
attractive environment offering culture, entertainment and
good shopping, which can be enjoyed during a short break
• “Get away from it all” destinations, offering an excellent
environment, for total relaxation or for the pursuit of cultural,
physical or environmental interests
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
The Changing Nature of Tourism Products
Week 13
• Theme parks that conveniently located, with good
transport links, and offer a full range of
entertainment and activities to be enjoyed by all
the family over a short break
• Cruises, many of which are getting shorter and
more affordable, are floating resorts that offer a full
range of entertainment and leisure options to
satisfy the whole family
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808
THANK YOU AND
HAVE A GOOD DAY
Bina Nusantara
HO@0808