Fort Collins Community Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Inventory & Forecast
Citizen Advisory Committee
July 23, 2014
Bonnie Pierce
Inventory Emissions
What is a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory?
An analysis that details the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with relevant operations
What is a GHG Emissions Protocol?
A set of standards that dictate the types, quality, and sources of data needed to conduct a GHG emissions inventory
Types of Inventories
Production/activity‐based: includes GHG emissions associated with sources and activities taking place within a geographic boundary over which an entity has jurisdiction
Consumption‐based: estimates life‐cycle emissions associated with residents’ consumption of goods & services
Life‐Cycle: accounting on the full life‐cycle emissions associated with materials extraction, manufacturing or processing, transportation, use, and end‐of‐life management of a good or service
2012 ICLEI Community Protocol
Geographic boundaries:
Focus on emissions occurring within jurisdictional boundary
Certain trans‐boundary emission sources associated with in‐
boundary community activities
Emphasis is on local control Consistent accounting for comparability
What does Fort Collins include?
Solid Waste Energy Use Transportation Water & Wastewater
Includes Residential, Commercial, & Industrial Sectors
Why include these emissions?
Requirements for compliance with the protocol
Data readily available, accurate, and complete
City has local control through plans, policies, & programs, etc.
Provides baseline for monitoring and evaluating progress
What’s currently not included?
Difficult to access data/de minimis emissions
HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 emissions
Industrial process emissions
Composting by residents & businesses
Railroad system
Fertilizer application
Livestock
Propane
Methods ‐ Electricity
Includes Fort Collins Utilities, Xcel Energy, transmission & distribution losses
Does not include Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
Energy mix is reflected in the calculations via emissions factors
Methods – Natural Gas
Data from Xcel Energy
Includes Residential, Commercial, & Industrial emissions
Methods – Air Travel
Based on fuel consumption at DIA, enplanement data, % of passengers from Fort Collins, reduced by number of connecting flights through DIA Methods – Ground Transportation
Vehicle miles travelled (VMT) estimated by complex modeling by the North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization (NFRMPO)
Latest estimate based on 2009 base model updated in fall 2011 with local demographic data & local traffic counts/surveys
VMT distribution provided by CO Department of Public Health & Environment
Fuel economy by vehicle type from Federal Highway Administration
Methods – Solid Waste
Accounts for the activity emissions that occur as a result of waste disposed by the community’s population during the inventory year
Includes process emissions associated with landfilling and collection and transportation emissions
Methods – Water
Includes emissions for water treatment processes, and conveyance & distribution of water Methods – Wastewater
Includes CH4 and N2O emissions from combustion, treatment processes, and fugitive emissions from effluent discharge
Fort Collins Inventory Results
Fort Collins Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
Sales & Use Tax, and Population
25.0%
20.0%
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Population
% Change from 2005
15.0%
Fort Collins Sales & Use Tax*
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
* Does not include the Keep Fort Collins Great tax increase
2013 Community GHG Inventory
Percent Emissions per Source
0%
3%
4%
Water‐related
19%
Solid Waste
Air Travel
50%
Natural Gas
Ground Travel
24%
Electricity
Comparison to 2005 Baseline
Fort Collins Community GHG Emissions
3,000,000
‐ 4.9 %
2,500,000
Water-related
Metric Tons CO2e
Solid Waste
Air Travel
2,000,000
Natural Gas
Ground Travel
Electricity
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2005
2013
Definition of Business‐as‐usual (BAU) Forecast
The future GHG emissions inventory compiled using baseline trends in the absence of technical, political, or physical interventions to reduce GHG emissions (i.e., “existing” emissions rates) is referred to as the BAU forecast
BAU Forecast
Fort Collins GHG Emissions and Projections
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
Metric Tons CO2e
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2005
Electricity
2010
2015
Natural Gas
2020
2025
Ground Travel
2030
2035
Air Travel
2040
2045
2050
Solid Waste Management
Major BAU Forecast assumptions
DOLA Fort Collins/Loveland population forecast
Fort Collins Utilities detailed electricity forecast
Current Fort Collins per capita solid waste generation used to project emissions
U.S. Energy Information Administration projections for natural gas consumption by sector and source for the Mountain Region
Projections from NFRMPO modeling for VMT
Bonnie Pierce, Ph.D.
Environmental Data Analyst
City of Fort Collins
[email protected] Phone: (970) 416‐2648