Welcome
Housing
Northern
Colorado
Regional Conversation
February 26, 2016
Budweiser Event Center
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Housing Issues in Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
Fort Collins
Mayor
Wade
Troxell
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Housing Northern Colorado
Ft. Collins Board
of REALTORS®
Chair
Natalie Davis
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Housing Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
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Housing Northern Colorado
Housing Affordability Index for Northern Colorado
Single Family January 2016:
Boulder: 68 vs 80 in 2015 or 15% decrease
Fort Collins: 111 vs. 126 in 2015 or 11.9% decrease
Greeley: 133
Loveland: 115
Remember the lower the number
the fewer who can afford housing.
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Housing Northern Colorado
CSU
Economist
Martin
Shields
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Housing Affordability Dynamics in Northern Colorado
Martin Shields
Department of Economics
Colorado State University
Main Points
• Housing is increasingly expensive in the region
• Job and wage growth improving but not sufficient to keep up
• Policy matters, but markets matter more
HOUSING IS INCREASINGLY EXPENSIVE IN THE REGION
Change in Average Single Family Housing Price: Select Markets
200%
175%
150%
Fort Collins
Boulder
125%
Greeley
US
100%
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
75%
Apartment Vacancy Rates
5.7%
5.5%
3.8%
3.9%
2.8%
2010 Q3
2.2%
Fort Collins
2015 Q3
Loveland
Source: Colorado Multi‐Family Vacancy & Rental Survey Greeley
Median Annual Apartment Rent
$15,935
$14,984
Loveland
$10,522
$9,884
$8,028
2010
$11,508
Fort Collins
Greeley
2011
2012
2013
Source: Colorado Multi‐Family Vacancy & Rental Survey 2014
2015
JOB AND WAGE GROWTH IMPROVING BUT NOT SUFFICIENT TO KEEP UP
Growth in Median Income and Single Family Housing Prices: 2010‐2014
24%
Greeley
20%
19%
Boulder
Fort Collins
18%
10%
19%
Median HH Income
Change in HPI Index
Larimer Employment Growth by Wage Relative to Average: 2010‐2015 8,454 Total Job Gain: 20,684
Avg Weekly Wage: $892
6,236 5,993 <75%
75%‐125%
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)/CDLE
>125%
Weld Employment Growth by Wage Relative to Average: 2010‐2015 Total Job Gain: 22,472
Avg Weekly Wage: $863
7,010 6,848 <75%
75%‐125%
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)/CDLE
8,602 >125%
POLICY MATTERS, BUT MARKETS MATTER MORE
Factors Influencing Prices: Supply Side
• Land costs
– Zoning and density
– Availability
• Development costs
– Permits
– Design review and changes
– Water
• Construction costs
Single Building Permits Lag Pre‐Recessionary Levels
4,500
Single Family‐Weld County
4,000
3,500
3,000
Single Family‐Larimer County
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
5+ Units‐Larimer County
500
5+ Units‐Weld County
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: US Census Building Permits Survey 2010
2012
2014
Factors Influencing Prices: Demand Side
• Population growth
• Income growth
• Tastes and preferences
– New urbanism and millennials
– Aging
Larimer In‐Migrants:
Affluent and Out‐of‐Colorado Weld In‐Migrants:
Less Affluent and From Colorado Source: Governing.com IRS County‐to‐County Migration Flows
Panelists
Loveland
Alison Hade, Community Partner Office Administrator
Longmont
Kathy Fedler, CDBG Disaster Recovery Program Manager
Greeley
Becky Safarik, Assistant City Manager
Fort Collins
Jacqueline Kozak-Thiel, Chief Sustainability Officer
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Fort Collins
Population: 161,000
Number of Households: 66,492
Median Sales Price: $300,000
Median Rent Rate: $1301 (Q4 2015)
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City of Greeley
Population: 103,037
Number of Households: 38,561
Median Sales Price: $239,000 (Q4 2015)
Median Rent Rate: $959.01 (Q3 2015)
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Longmont, CO
Population: 92,852
Number of Households: 36,403
Median Sales Price: $323,000 (SF - 2015)
Median Rent Rate: $1,350 (Q2 2015)
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Loveland
Population: 72,795
Number of Households: 28,338
Median Sales Price: $300,000 (Q4 2015)
Median Rent Rate: $1,326
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Summary of City Data
City
Population Households Sales
Price
Loveland
Longmont
Greeley
Fort Collins
72,795
82,862
103,037
161,000
28,333
36,403
38,561
66,492
$300,000
$323,000
$239,000
$300,000
Rent
Rate
$1,326
$1,350
$959
$1,301
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Discussion topics –
Table Report Forms
What 2-3 housing related issues do you believe
can/should be addressed through a regional
collaboration or approach?
• What’s the issue?
• How do you see a regional collaboration making a
difference?
• Are you interested in being part of an ongoing effort?
REPORT OUT
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Next Steps
What can we do together that we can’t do alone?
How do we keep the conversations moving?
• Topic Think Tanks?
• Quarterly Meetings?
• Government Policy Task Force?
• Structure to Share Best Practices?
Can we join other regional efforts already in progress?
• Who will connect us?
Who else should be included?
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Thank you for your
commitment and
participation
this morning!
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