An Analysis of Purchase
Price of Legal and Illicit
Cigarettes in Low- and
Middle-Income Countries
Jennifer Brown, MPH, Rajeev Cherukupalli, PhD, Joanna Cohen, PhD, Carmen Washington, MPH,
Jacqueline Ferguson, MHS, Jingyan Yang, MHS, Katherine Clegg Smith, PhD
Background
Illicit trade of tobacco products is a global problem that undermines tobacco control policies. There are few
data on the price of illicit cigarettes, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study
examines the average purchase price of legal and illicit cigarettes in 14 LMICs.
Methods
• Data from 2013 surveillance study on tobacco packs,
Example of ‘legal’ vs. ‘illicit’ packs: Viet Nam
including white cigarettes and kreteks (n=3,241)
• Three sample cities selected in each country, based on
population and diversity; in each city, 12 vendors selected
from different socioeconomic neighborhoods
• Packs categorized as ‘legal’ vs. ‘illicit’ based on presence
of country’s health warning label (HWL)
• High correlations between correct tax stamp and having
HWL from that country (8 countries; R=0.97-1.00)
• Prices of cigarettes scaled to 20 sticks and all prices
converted to USD for comparison
• Mean price of legal and illicit packs calculated; t-tests
Pack with
Pack with HWL NOT
used to assess significance of mean difference in price
Viet Nam HWL
from Viet Nam
Results
• Overall, 23.8 percent of packs purchased categorized as illicit, ranging from 0 percent from Brazil and
Indonesia to 81.2 percent from Pakistan
Mean purchase price of legal and illicit cigarettes (USD)
Illicit
4.51
Legal
3.72
3.38
3.37
3.08
2.87
2.83
2.90
2.83
2.29
1.96
1.92
1.61
• Mean purchase price of illicit cigarettes
is significantly higher than legal (7
countries; p<0.05)
• Mean purchase price of legal cigarettes
is significantly higher than illicit (3
countries; p<0.05)
• Not significant or all packs were legal
(4 countries)
1.46 1.50 1.47
1.41
1.21
0.94
0.87
1.72
1.46
1.65
0.95
0.68
0.36
n/a
n/a
Conclusions
• There is large variation across countries in terms of the price difference between legal and illicit cigarettes.
• Results contribute to evidence base that suggests non-price factors drive the presence of illicit cigarettes.
• Presence of appropriate HWLs correlates highly with the presence of tax stamps (Bangladesh, Pakistan, India,
Thailand, Viet Nam, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Turkey).
• Further research between price and legal status of packs in LMICs is needed.
Acknowledgements : This work was supported by a grant from the Bloomberg Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use to the Johns
Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
www.globaltobaccocontrol.org/tpackss