ab_q2_2007.qxp
5/1/2007
2:10 PM
Page 6
Alabama Population
Trends
Alabama is finally seeing a real uptick in
population growth, according to estimates
released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Population gains were meager in the first
several years of the 21st century as the 2001
recession weakened the state’s economy and
job opportunities declined in most areas. From
mid-2000 to mid-2001, about 1,000 more
people moved out of Alabama than moved in,
with a modest population gain due solely to
an excess of births over deaths. As economic
growth has picked up, so has the influx of
people moving into the state. Between July
2005 and July 2006, net migration totaled
more than 36,700, an increase of almost
88 percent compared to the previous year.
For the first time this decade, in 2006 the
state’s annual rate of population growth
was faster than the nation’s.
It is almost surprising that the rebound has
not been stronger, as Alabama’s unemployment rate has fallen sharply since 2003 and
employers are reporting shortages of skilled
workers to fill jobs in expanding industries,
including automobile manufacturing, healthcare, and aerospace and defense-related
engineering. With unemployment registering
3.6 percent statewide in 2006, even the best
workforce training programs cannot supply
enough workers with the education and skills
needed for every job opening.
Growth and Opportunity Uneven
Not all of Alabama’s 67 counties gained residents between 2000 and 2006; in fact, just
28 added population during this time. The
remaining 39 counties saw losses as high as
8.5 percent. Population change by county is
indicated on the map on page 11. The primary
factor in population growth or decline is
migration. Twenty-seven counties had net
inmigration as more people moved in than
moved out during the six years. However,
five of these counties experienced a natural
decrease, with more deaths than births.
Another 29 of Alabama’s counties were hit
with net outmigration, but still managed to
deliver more than enough births to offset
deaths. And three of the state’s larger
counties—Mobile, Montgomery, and
Calhoun—had population gains on the
strength of natural increase, despite
outmigration.
Eleven counties were dealt the double blow of
net outmigration coupled with natural decrease
between 2000 and 2006. Most of these
counties actually experienced population gains
between 1990 and 2000, but many have been
10
Alabama Business
hit with plant closings and a lack
of offsetting development since
2000. Only two of these
counties lie in the area of the
state traditionally known as the
Black Belt. Altogether, 12
Alabama counties lost more than
5 percent of their population
between 2000 and 2006 due to
net outmigration; eight of these
counties are in the Black Belt.
Many of the people leaving these
12 counties are not lost to the
state, however; migration data
indicate that they are likely to
relocate to a nearby metropolitan
county.
Metro and Nonmetro Trends
Components of Alabama Population Change
Alabama has long been a state
Population
Net
Natural
where the population is concenEstimate
Migration
Change
trated in the metropolitan areas.
The 11 metros currently encom4/1/2000*
4,447,351
pass 28 counties with an
7/1/2000
4,452,375
397
4,516
estimated 2006 population of
7/1/2001
4,466,618
-1,083
17,117
3,264,017, up 4.2 percent since
7/1/2002
4,477,571
1,322
13,741
2000. Metro area counties
7/1/2003
4,495,089
7,287
12,706
housed 71.6 percent of the
7/1/2004
4,517,442
11,624
12,614
state’s population in 2006, up
7/1/2005
4,548,327
19,559
13,322
from 70.5 percent in 2000, with
7/1/2006
4,599,030
36,716
13,802
population gains outpacing those
*
Estimates
base,
which
includes
changes
through
1/1/2006.
in the nonmetropolitan counties
Note: Natural Change = Births - Deaths.
for every year from 2000 to
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau.
2006. Shelby County in the
Birmingham-Hoover metro area
industry mix that is generally less
has been the state’s fastest growing county
manufacturing- and more services-dependent
for several decades. And nine of the top ten
helps the metro areas as a whole weather
counties in terms of percent population
economic downturns better than the often
increase between 2000 and 2006 are in
more manufacturing-heavy nonmetro areas.
metropolitan areas. That is not to say that
As Alabama’s economy began to slide in 2001,
every metropolitan county has prospered—
nonagricultural employment (which is by place
the very rural metro counties of Greene and
of work) fell off relatively more rapidly in the
Lowndes are among 12 counties statewide
nonmetro areas. From 2000 to 2003, the
showing outmigration of more than 5 percent
state’s metro areas lost 33,050 jobs and the
of their population since 2000.
nonmetro areas lost 22,650. This amounted to
2.3 percent of the metro areas’ 2000 jobs total,
The 39 nonmetro counties are a diverse group
but for the nonmetro areas it represented a loss
as they include 15 counties that are in microof 4.9 percent. Nonagricultural employment
politan areas (smaller economic centers with
has steadily increased across the state since
at least one core city of 10,000 to 49,999
2003, with the metropolitan counties adding
residents). Coastal Baldwin County, which
84,000 jobs between 2003 and 2006, an
comprises the Daphne-Fairhope micro, has
increase of 5.9 percent, and the nonmetrobeen the second-fastest growing county in
politan counties counting 22,900 new jobs,
Alabama for the last several decades. Popua gain of 5.2 percent. The auto industry
lation in the micro areas approached 844,550
has helped bring jobs to both metro and
in 2006, up 4.1 percent since 2000 and
nonmetro Alabama as suppliers fan out in
amounting to 63.3 percent of the state’s
search of available labor pools and the OEMs
nonmetro total. The remaining nonmetro
draw their sizeable labor forces from their
counties saw their population decline by 2.5
home and nearby counties.
percent after 2000, before stabilizing in 2006.
Jobs are even more centered in the metro
areas, with 76.5 percent of nonagricultural
employment located in these 28 counties in
2006, up from 75.8 percent in 2000. An
As a group, Alabama’s metro areas provide
more than enough jobs for their residents and
the nonmetro areas provide too few. The ratio
of jobs to employed nonmetro residents has
ab_q2_2007.qxp
5/1/2007
2:10 PM
Page 7
other overriding factors, such
as housing, schools, or family,
keeping them in their current
location. Both the lack of
newer housing and poorly
performing local public
schools in some of Alabama’s
more rural counties do not
entice younger adults to
remain and raise their families
there.
A Future with Growth and
Prosperity for All?
Population growth for
Alabama as a whole is
expected to continue to build
2000
2003
2006
on the momentum of the last
Alabama
1,931,200
1,875,500 1,982,400
several years throughout this
Metro
1,464,650
1,431,600 1,515,600
decade. Recommendations of
Nonmetro
466,550
443,900
466,800
the Base Realignment and
Percent Change
Closure (BRAC) commission
Alabama
-2.9%
5.7%
will be bringing an influx of
Metro
-2.3%
5.9%
new residents to Madison and
Nonmetro
-4.9%
5.2%
other northern Alabama
Metro Share of Total
75.8%
76.3%
76.5%
counties through 2011, when
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Center for Business
the last moves are scheduled
and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
to be completed. Eastern
Alabama counties, including
fallen slightly from .816 in 2000 to .809 in
Lee and Russell, should also see population
2006. This means that if all the jobs in
growth from BRAC as military personnel
nonmetro counties were held by residents,
transferred to Fort Benning in nearby Colum19.1 percent of workers would still have to
bus, Georgia spread out across the area. Onlook elsewhere for work. Of course, some
going and pending economic development is
workers commute out of every metro and
expected to keep the state adding jobs at a
nonmetro county. Persistently higher average
moderate pace, with workforce development
historical unemployment rates across
initiatives helping to provide Alabamians with
Alabama’s nonmetropolitan counties suggest
the skills needed by new and existing jobs. But
that people are reluctant to move and the fact
with unemployment low, employment gains
that nonmetro unemployment rates came
should keep a positive stream of new people
down significantly in 2005 indicates that they
moving into the state to help fill these job
might not need to. The question then arises
openings.
that if gas prices remain relatively high over a
prolonged period of time, will workers become
However, several factors will contribute to a
more likely to move to be closer to their jobs?
growing number of counties showing a natural
The probability may be higher if there are not
Nonagricultural Employment (Jobs)
decrease: the aging of the baby boom
generation, the cumulative outmigration of
young adults in the 20 to 29 age range from
many counties, and the success of some
counties in attracting retirees. That is not to
say that retiree attraction is a negative—recent
trends indicate that retirees are more likely to
relocate to a nonmetro than a metro county.
And they generally have higher disposable
income than the older population “aging in
place” in the county. But a lack of convenient
healthcare services and other amenities make it
difficult for some counties to draw retirees.
Immigration is a positive factor for natural
increase; in particular, Hispanics tend to be
younger and to have more children than the
aging white non-Hispanic population.
Bringing all Alabama counties to a state of
population and economic growth is a longterm aspiration. The effect of decades of
outmigration of young adults coupled with
economic decline has left many rural nonmetro
counties with populations that are older, less
well-educated, have lower incomes, and are
employed in lower-skilled jobs than their metro
or even micropolitan neighbors. But regional
initiatives that help attract jobs and provide
relevant job skills, as well as repair and develop
needed infrastructure are a start. Ultimately,
though, spreading success across every area of
the state will require leadership and tools to
create new competitiveness strategies as well
as local entrepreneurs to develop the financial
and social capital to implement these
strategies.
Carolyn Trent
[email protected]
Note: Visit cber.cba.ua.edu and
www.census.gov for 2006 population
estimates data.
Alabama Business
11