TM
TM
MONTGOMERY
A L A B A M A B U S I N E S S C O N F I D E N C E I N D E XVolume 14, Fourth Quarter 2015
Montgomery Confidence on Top Among
the Large Metro Areas
Fourth Quarter 2015 Outlook
ABCI Montgomery fell 3.2 points to a still confident 54.2 on
the fourth quarter 2015 survey, 4.5 points below the 58.7
index registered a year ago. Although capital spending
growth may slow, sales and hiring should remain strong
throughout this quarter.
Most Montgomery businesses in the survey are expecting strong fourth quarter sales growth. Despite a 6.1 point
decline, the sales index remained at a still confident 56.4
with 47 percent of respondents forecasting an increase in
sales, while just 19 percent anticipate a decline and 35 percent foresee steady sales.
Profits should also post gains. Despite losing 6.9
points, the profits index remains positive at 52.9. While 47
percent expect to see only stable profits, 35 percent anticipate increased profits and only 19 percent think profits will
decline.
The Montgomery area is likely to build on the job gains
seen in recent months. The hiring index fell 3.4 points but
remains strong at 54.7. Almost 63 percent of panelists
expect to see job creation continue at last quarter’s pace,
while 30 percent are forecasting an increase in hiring and
only 7 percent expect slower job creation.
Capital spending growth could temper as the index
slipped 0.7 points to 52.9. About 54 percent of the panel
expect no change, while 30 percent anticipate increased
spending and only 16 percent expect to cut back on capital
expenditures.
ABCI
59.2
51.2
National Economy
55.2
49.3
Alabama Economy
52.9
52.0
Industry Sales
56.4
53.3
Industry Profits
52.9
50.6
Industry Hiring
54.7
50.9
Capital Expenditures
52.9
50.9
100 Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red
Blue
values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
values indicate no change.
Montgomery Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q4 2015 compared to Q3 2015
Montgomery area business executives continue to be
the most optimistic about prospects for the Alabama
economy. Despite a 3.3 point fall, the state economy
index remains confident at 52.9.
Montgomery businesses remain confident about the
U.S. economy as well. The 55.2 reading is within one
point of last quarter’s index.
90 Be4er 80 No Change 60 55.4 58.8 59.0 58.7 59.4 60.1 57.4 Alabama
National Economic Outlook
ABCITM Montgomery
70 Index Montgomery
54.2 39.5 41.9 0 50 Percent
18.6 Worse 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 45 50 Alabama Economic Outlook
40 30 Be4er 20 No Change 10 37.2 41.9 20.9 Worse 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014
2014 22015
015 Q4 0 5 10 15 20 Percent
25 30 35 40 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Montgomery Metro Area
Montgomery Metro Area:
ABCI Montgomery in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q4 2015 compared to Q3 2015
Business confidence in the Montgomery metro fell to
54.2 on the fourth quarter 2015 survey. This is lowest
level since the second quarter of 2013. Nevertheless, the
area ABCI outpaced the statewide index by 3.0 points.
With this, the Montgomery area ABCI has now been
higher than the statewide ABCI for 11 straight quarters.
Sales
46.5 Increase 60 34.9 No Change 55 18.6 Decrease 0 10 50 20 30 Percent
Profits
40 50 45 40 34.9 Increase 46.5 No Change 0 10 25 20 30 Percent
40 50 Hiring Plans
30.2 Increase 62.8 No Change 7.0 Decrease 0 10 20 30 40 Percent
50 60 70 Capital Expenditures
53.5 10 Huntsville 20 Percent
30 51.2 40 50 51.4 Birmingham-­‐Hoover 16.3 0 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
mostly, but not entirely, positive at the end of 2015. ABCI
Montgomery again came in on top, despite falling 3.2 points
to 54.2. Mobile’s business community also remains optimistic with an area ABCI of 53.9, despite a modest 0.4 point
decline. A 1.7 point drop in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI puts
the area’s sentiment at 51.4. Huntsville’s business confidence
plummeted 6.2 points to 48.9, possibly as the prospect of
another govertment shutdown threatened to disrupt that
local economy.
Alabama No Change Decrease Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ABCI by Metro Area Q4 2015
30.2 Increase Montgomery 30 18.6 Decrease Alabama 35 60 Mobile Montgomery 48.9 53.9 54.2 The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Montgomery metro area business executives who completed the
fourth quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of September. We look forward to continued partnership with the Montgomery Area Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the first quarter 2016 survey December 1-15. For more details on the
Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
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