TM
TM
M O B I L E
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Confidence Positive but Lower as
Hiring Prospects Dip
Fourth Quarter 2015 Outlook
Mobile
ABCI Mobile slipped 0.4 points to 53.9 looking ahead to the
fourth quarter of 2015. This is 4.8 points lower than a year
ago. Forecasts for the U.S. economy rose, as did expectations for the state economy. Industry indicators were mixed
- marked by strong declines in sales and hiring. Still, with
all indexes above 50, the area’s economy should continue
to see improvement this quarter.
Mobile’s industry sales index fell 2.3 points to 53.7, the
second highest among the large metros. While 32 percent
of executives in the survey anticipate stronger sales than
last quarter, just 17 percent forecast a decrease and 51 percent expect sales similiar to last quarter.
At 56.1, the profits index is up 0.1 point and remains quite
positive. Only 15 percent of panelists expect to see lower
profits this quarter. A still strong 39 percent expect higher
profits, while 46 percent anticipate no change from third
quarter profit levels.
The outlook for hiring is lower by 4.4 points to a nearly
neutral 50.6. Most - 66 percent - expect to hire at the third
quarter pace and almost 20 percent anticipate stronger job
creation, while only 15 percent anticipate slower hiring.
Capital spending growth should slowly continue. The
area index of 52.4, up less than a point, remains in positive
territory. Almost 49 percent of panelists forecast level
investment and 32 percent expect to increase spending,
while only 20 percent anticipate decrease spending for the
fourth quarter.
ABCITM Mobile
100 Volume 14, Fourth Quarter 2015
ABCI
Alabama
53.9
51.2
National Economy
51.8
49.3
Alabama Economy
58.5
52.0
Industry Sales
53.7
53.3
Industry Profits
56.1
50.6
Industry Hiring
50.6
50.9
Capital Expenditures
52.4
50.9
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Mobile Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q4 2015 compared to Q3 2015
Mobile business executives are seeing improved prospects for the U.S. economy late in 2015 as confidence
increased 1.8 points to 51.8. More than 34 percent of
panelists expect stronger U.S. growth and 37 percent
expect a continuation of third quarter levels. The
area’s outlook for the Alabama economy similiarly
gained 1.5 points to a quite confident 58.5. Only 15
percent expect statewide economic growth to decline
compared to last quarter.
National Economic Outlook
90 Index 36.6 No Change 70 60 34.1 Be4er 80 56.2 58.3 55.5 58.7 58.2 59.1 54.3 53.9 29.3 Worse 50 0 40 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Alabama Economic Outlook
30 39.0 No Change 10 0 46.3 Be4er 20 Q1 Q2 2014
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015
Q3 Q4 14.6 Worse 0 10 Percent
20 30 40 50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Metro Area
Mobile Metro Area:
ABCI Mobile in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q4 2015 compared to Q3 2015
Mobile business confidence slipped 0.4 points to 53.9
on the fourth quarter 2015 survey, coming in 2.7 points
above the statewide average. ABCI Mobile has registered 53 or higher for the last 10 quarters. Overall, area
businesses have now been optimistic since the second
quarter of 2013.
Sales
65 31.7 Increase 51.2 No Change 60 17.1 Decrease 0 55 10 20 30 40 50 50 Percent
Profits
45 40 50.0 Increase 39.3 No Change 0 30 10 20 Percent
30 40 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 50 Hiring Plans
19.5 Increase 65.9 No Change 14.6 Decrease 0 10 20 30 Percent
40 50 60 70 Capital Expenditures
Huntsville 19.5 Mobile 20 30 40 51.4 Birmingham-­‐Hoover 48.8 10 51.2 Alabama No Change 0 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is mostly, but not entirely, positive at the end of 2015.
ABCI Montgomery again came in on top, despite falling 3.2
points to 54.2. Mobile’s business community also remains
optimistic with an area ABCI of 53.9, despite a modest 0.4
point decline. A 1.7 point drop in Birmingham-Hoover’s
ABCI puts the area’s sentiment at 51.4. Huntsville’s business
confidence plummeted 6.2 points to 48.9, possibly as the
prospect of another govertment shutdown threatened to
disrupt that local economy.
ABCI by Metro Area Q4 2015
31.7 Increase Decrease Mobile 35 10.7 Decrease Alabama 50 Montgomery 48.9 53.9 54.2 Percent
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the fourth
quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of September. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area
Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the first quarter 2016 survey December 1-15. For more details on the Alabama
Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
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