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B I R M I N G H A M
H O O V E R
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Area Business Confidence Weakens, but
Remains Positive
Birmingham-Hoover business executives remain optimistic about their prospects for the fourth quarter of 2015,
despite a 1.7 point drop to 51.4. This represents a 2.5 point
drop from one year ago. The Birmingham-Hoover ABCI has
now been positive for 12 straight quarters.
The sales index fell 3.2 points to remain optimistic at
52.6. Over 31 percent of panelists expect sales to increase
this quarter, while 23 percent forecast a decrease and 46
percent of panelists anticipate no change in their quarterly
sales figures.
Profits should be stable or slightly increasing, with the
index at 52.1 - almost identical to last quarter’s reading.
About 35 percent anticipate higher profits, while 27 percent feel profits will be down from last quarter. Similarly, 38
percent of those polled expect to see stable profits for the
quarter.
Job creation should continue in the fourth quarter,
albeit at a slower pace. The index remained essentially
steady at 51.0. While 54 percent of Birmingham-Hoover
executives plan to hire at the same pace as last quarter, 25
percent forecast an increase in hiring and 21 percent expect
hiring to slow.
A 4.3 point gain puts the capital investment index at
51.6. Almost 46 percent of panelists expect spending to be
about the same as last quarter and 31 percent anticipate
an increase, while 23 percent of the panel expect spending
levels to decrease.
ABCITM Birmingham-Hoover
90 ABCI
National Economy
53.2 57.0 56.9 53.9 58.1 53.8 53.1 51.2
49.5
49.3
Alabama Economy
51.6
52.0
Industry Sales
52.6
53.3
Industry Profits
52.1
50.6
Industry Hiring
51.0
50.9
Capital Expenditures
51.6
50.9
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Birmingham-Hoover Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q4 2015 compared to Q3 2015
Executives in the Birmingham-Hoover metro area are
more optimistic about the business environment this
quarter. Expectations for the U.S. economy climbed 0.6
point to 49.5, while the Alabama economy index fell 3.7
points to 51.6.
About 25 percent of panelists expect stronger
growth in the state’s economy and 25 percent forecast
a better performance at the national level compared to
last quarter, as well.
25.0 45.8 51.4 Percent
29.2 Worse 50 0 10 20 30 40 Alabama Economic Outlook
40 30 54.2 No Change 10 20.8 Worse Q2 2014
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015
Q3 Q4 50 25.0 Be5er 20 Q1 Alabama
51.4
No Change 70 Percent BirminghamHoover
Be4er 80 0 Fourth Quarter 2015 Outlook
National Economic Outlook
100 60 Volume 14, Fourth Quarter 2015
0 10 20 Percent
30 40 50 60 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Birmingham-Hoover Metro Area
Birmingham-Hoover Metro Area:
ABCI Birmingham-Hoover in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Birmingham-Hoover business confidence fell 1.7 points to
51.4 on the fourth quarter 2015 survey. That’s the lowest
ABCI reading since the first quarter of 2013. Area executives have nevertheless felt optimistic, with an ABCI above
50 for 12 consecutive quarters.
Q4 2015 compared to Q3 2015
Sales
60 31.3 Increase 55 45.8 No Change Percent
22.9 Decrease 0 5 10 15 20 50 25 30 35 45 40 45 50 Profits
35 27.1 Decrease 5 10 15 20 25 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percent
30 35 40 45 50 Hiring Plans
25.0 Increase 54.2 No Change 20.8 Decrease 0 10 Percent
20 30 40 Birmingham-­‐Hoover 25 37.5 No Change Alabama 30 35.4 Increase 0 40 50 60 70 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is mostly, but not entirely, positive at the end of 2015.
ABCI Montgomery again came in on top, despite falling 3.2
points to 54.2. Mobile’s business community also remains
optimistic with an area ABCI of 53.9, despite a modest 0.4
point decline. A 1.7 point drop in Birmingham-Hoover’s
ABCI puts the area’s sentiment at 51.4. Huntsville’s business confidence plummeted 6.2 points to 48.9, possibly as
the prospect of another govertment shutdown threatened
to disrupt that local economy.
ABCI by Metro Area Q4 2015
Capital Expenditures
51.2 Alabama 31.3 Increase 45.8 No Change 22.9 Decrease 0 10 20 Huntsville Percent
30 51.4 Birmingham-­‐Hoover 40 50 Mobile 60 Montgomery 48.9 53.9 54.2 The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Birmingham-Hoover metro area business executives who completed the fourth quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of September. We look forward to a continuing partnership with
the Birmingham Business Alliance and encourage you to return for the first quarter 2016 survey, December 1-15. For more details on the
Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
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