Mobile Businesses Post Optimistic Fourth Quarter Outlook ABCI Mobile continues to lead the state with a reading of 58.0 on the fourth quarter 2013 survey. Given slightly less robust outlooks for the business environment and sales, the index dipped 1.0 point. However, profits and hiring are expected to pick up this quarter. Area business executives are much more optimistic than a year ago when the ABCI was 51.0. At 62.5 the sales index forecasts continued strong gains in the fourth quarter. Almost 53 percent of Mobile executives think sales in their industry will increase and only 8.3 percent expect a decline. The profits index is up 4.5 points to 60.4. Over 47 percent of area businesses foresee higher profits this quarter versus 11.1 percent projecting a decrease. Mobile’s employment picture should continue to improve in the fourth quarter. The hiring plans index rose 3.0 points to 55.6 with a net 19.4 percent of businesses expecting to increase hiring and 69.4 percent planning to hire at the third quarter pace. Capital spending growth could be modest—the index is down 1.1 points to 53.5, with about 53 percent of firms holding investment level. Executives in manufacturing; transportation, information, and utilities; and construction are optimistic about all aspects of their business with industry ABCIs over 61. The financial activities sector ABCI registered 54.2; capital spending could be flat while sales, profits, and hiring pick up. Although hiring is not expected to increase in professional services, other business measures should improve. Healthcare concerns are feeling optimistic about fourth quarter sales and profits. ABCITM Mobile 100
Fourth Quarter 2013 Outlook Mobile
Alabama ABCI 58.0
51.9
National Economy 53.5
50.4
Alabama Economy 62.5
56.0
Industry Sales 62.5
54.3
Industry Profits 60.4
51.5
Industry Hiring 55.6
50.8
Capital Expenditures 53.5
48.4
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook. Index below 50 indicates negative outlook. Black increase from previous quarter. Red decrease from previous quarter. Blue no change. Mobile Metro Area: Business Environment Expectations Q4 2013 compared to Q3 2013 After a steep run‐up in confidence about both the U.S. and Alabama economies last quarter, Mobile expectations for the economic environment pulled back 4.5 points in the fourth quarter. Still, strong improvement is expected in the state’s economy—the index is at 62.5 and only 2.8 percent have a negative outlook. Most expect U.S. economic growth to be about the same as in the third quarter, with an index of 53.5. National Economic Outlook 90
60
Index
52.8
Remain the Same
70
50
30.6
Better
80
46.0 49.6
55.5
59.0 58.0
48.9 51.0 48.7
16.7
Worse
51.4
0
40
10
20
30
40
50
60
Alabama Economic Outlook 30
50.0
Better
20
47.2
Remain the Same
10
2.8
Worse
0
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2011 2012 2013
Q4
0
10
20
30
Percent 40
50
Mobile Metro Area: ABCI Mobile in Context Industry Performance Expectations After a strong third quarter jump to 59.0, ABCI Mobile came in at 58.0 on the fourth quarter survey. The modest 1.0 point decline matched the decrease in the index statewide. Mobile area business sentiment has been above statewide levels since fourth quarter a year ago, bolstered by ongoing gains in manufacturing, trade, and financial activities and a growing aerospace sector. Q4 2013 compared to Q3 2013 Sales 65
52.8
Increase
60
38.9
No Change
8.3
Decrease
0
55
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
45
Profits 40
47.2
Increase
Mobile
30
11.1
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
25.0
69.4
No Change
5.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Capital Expenditures 53.3
45.8
Mobile
19.4
10
51.9
Huntsville
52.8
0
ABCI by Metro Area Q4 2013 Birmingham‐Hoover
No Change
Decrease
Alabama
27.8
Increase
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
Q1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20
30
40
50
60
Panelists completed the fourth quarter ABCI survey during the first two weeks of September, amid a climate of con‐
tinuing federal spending cutbacks and uncertainty about budget issues. While Huntsville’s index forecasts moderate contraction, the ABCI indicates at least modest economic expansion statewide and in the Birmingham‐Hoover, Mobile, and Montgomery metros. Mobile’s business confidence leads the state’s four large metros again this quarter. Hiring Plans Increase
Alabama
35
41.7
No Change
Decrease
50
70
58.0
Montgomery
Percent 54.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the fourth quarter 2013 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of September. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the first quarter 2014 survey December 1‐15. For more details on the Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst. Produced in partnership with the