TM
M O N T G O M E R Y
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
Montgomery Confidence on Top among
Metro Areas
Third Quarter 2015 Outlook
ABCI Montgomery fell 2.7 points to a still confident 57.4 on
the third quarter 2015 survey. This is 1.6 points below the
59 registered a year ago. Panelists expect sales, profits,
and hiring to be very strong this quarter.
Most Montgomery businesses in the survey are expecting strong third quarter sales growth, despite a dip of 2.2
points to 62.5. Almost 54 percent of respondents forecast
an increase, while just 7.1 percent anticipate a decline.
Profits should also post solid gains. The index is down
less than one point to 59.8 with 89 percent expecting the
same or higher earnings growth.
The Montgomery area is likely to build on the job gains
seen in recent months. The hiring index remains confident
at 58, similiar to last quarter’s reading. About 39 percent
of panelists expect to see further increases in hiring, while
only 7.1 percent forecast a decrease.
Capital spending growth could slow though as the index slipped 1.6 points to 53.6. About 39 percent expect to
increase investment, while only 10.7 percent of executives
anticipate decreasing investment.
Optimism is high among all Montgomery industries
represented in the third quarter survey except utilities and
healthcare. Strongest job growth could come from firms
in construction, professional services, manufacturing, and
all other services. The pace of capital investment is most
likely to pick up in construction, retail trade, and all other
services. The highest profit potential is seen in professional
services, construction, and all other services.
Montgomery
Alabama
ABCI
57.4
54.8
National Economy
54.5
50.7
Alabama Economy
56.3
56.6
Industry Sales
62.5
58.3
Industry Profits
59.8
55.7
Industry Hiring
58.0
53.9
Capital Expenditures
53.6
53.2
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red
Blue
values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
values indicate no change.
Montgomery Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q3 2015 compared to Q2 2015
Montgomery area business executives continue to be
optimistic about prospects for the Alabama economy. The state economy index is down 4.7 points to a
still confident 56.3. The index for the U.S. economy is
down a larger seven points to 54.5 as Montgomery area
executives express much less confidence in the national
economy than that of the state.
National Economic Outlook
100 ABCI
TM
Montgomery
Index 60 50.0 No Change 80 70 35.7 Be5er 90 59.4 60.1 57.4 56.6 54.3 55.4 58.8 59.0 58.7 50 Percent
14.3 Worse 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Alabama Economic Outlook
40 30 Be4er 20 No Change 10 39.3 50.0 10.7 Worse 0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 2014 2015 Q2 Q3 0 5 10 Percent
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Montgomery Metro Area
Montgomery Metro Area:
ABCI Montgomery in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q3 2015 compared to Q2 2015
Business confidence in the Montgomery metro fell to
57.4 on the third quarter 2015 survey. This is the Montgomery survey’s tenth consecutive month in positive
territory. Likewise, the Alabama ABCI has enjoyed nine
consecutive months in positive territory, above 50.
Sales
60 53.6 Increase 55 39.3 No Change 50 7.1 Decrease 0 10 Profits
20 Percent
30 40 45 50 40 50.0 Increase 39.3 No Change 0 10 25 20 30 Percent
40 50 Hiring Plans
39.3 Increase 53.6 No Change 7.1 Decrease 0 10 Montgomery 30 10.7 Decrease Alabama 35 20 Percent
30 40 50 60 Capital Expenditures
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas
is solidly positive in the third quarter of 2015. All industry
component indexes in each area are at or above 50, indicating broad improvement. ABCI Montgomery came in on top,
despite losing 2.7 points to 57.4. Mobile’s business community remains strongly optimistic with an area ABCI of 54.3,
despite a 4.8 point decline. Huntsville’s business confidence
lost 2.4 points to 55.1, still strong as political and budget
uncertainties at the national level are of less concern than in
the past. A slight decline in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI puts
the area’s sentiment below that of Mobile at 53.1.
ABCI by Metro Area Q3 2015
39.3 Increase 50.0 No Change Birmingham-­‐Hoover Huntsville 10.7 Decrease 0 10 20 30 54.8 Alabama 40 50 Mobile 60 Montgomery Percent
53.1 55.1 54.3 57.4 The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the first
quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of June. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area Chamber
of Commerce and encourage you to return for the fourth quarter 2015 survey September 1-15. For more details on the Alabama Business
Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Research Associate.
Produced in partnership between
T H E C A P S T O N E O F H I G H E R E D U C AT I O N
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H
2 | Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama