TM
M O B I L E
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
Mobile Confidence Positive but Lower as
Hiring Prospects Dip
Third Quarter 2015 Outlook
ABCI Mobile slipped 4.8 points to 54.3 looking ahead to the
third quarter of 2015, coming in 1.2 points lower than a year
ago. Forecasts for the U.S. economy and sales fell, along
with all other indicators when compared to their second
quarter readings. Still, with all indexes at or above 50, the
area’s economy should continue to see broad improvement
this quarter.
Mobile’s industry sales index dropped 4.6 points to a
still high 56.0. While 44 percent of executives in the survey
anticipate stronger sales than last quarter, 20 percent forecast a decrease. At 56, the profits index is down 1.6 points,
but remains quite positive— 40 percent of panelists expect
higher earnings growth this quarter while only 24 percent
anticipate lower third quarter profit levels.
The outlook for hiring is lower but remains optimistic;
the index fell 4.8 points to 55. Many (48 percent) expect
to hire at a faster pace than the second quarter, while 20
percent anticipate weaker job creation. Capital spending
growth should continue. Although the area index is down
7.8 points to 52. About 72 percent forecast level investment and 20 percent expect to increase spending.
Despite dampened confidence, most segments of
Mobile’s business community are optimistic about their
overall prospects for the second half of 2015. Sales should
climb broadly and profits are forecasted to rise in many
industries. Job creation and new capital investment could
be focused on healthcare; retail trade; construction; and
transportation, information, and utilities firms.
ABCITM Mobile
Mobile
Alabama
ABCI
54.3
54.8
National Economy
50.0
50.7
Alabama Economy
57.0
56.6
Industry Sales
56.0
58.3
Industry Profits
56.0
55.7
Industry Hiring
55.0
53.9
Capital Expenditures
52.0
53.2
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red values indicate an decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Mobile Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q3 2015 compared to Q2 2015
Mobile business executives are less enthusiastic about
prospects for the U.S. economy. Confidence fell 6.1
points to a neutral reading of 50. About 28 percent of
panelists anticipate stronger growth and 28 percent
expect a decline from second quarter levels. The
area’s outlook for the Alabama economy slipped 3.6
points to a still high 57. Over 75 percent of panelists
expect statewide economic growth to be the same or
better than last quarter.
National Economic Outlook
100 90 Index 70 60 44.0 No Change 59.0 58.0 56.2 56.2 55.5 58.7 58.2 58.2 54.3 28.0 Percent
Worse 0 50 10 20 30 40 50 Alabama Economic Outlook
40 30 48.0 Be4er 20 28.0 No Change 10 0 28.0 Be4er 80 Percent
24.0 Percent
Worse Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2013 2014 2015 Q2 Q3 0 10 20 30 40 50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Metro Area
Mobile Metro Area:
ABCI Mobile in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q3 2015 compared to Q2 2015
Mobile business confidence fell 4.8 points to 54.3 on the
third quarter 2015 survey, coming in very near the statewide average. ABCI Mobile has registered 54 or higher
in five of the last nine quarters. Area businesses have
been optimistic overall since the second quarter of 2013.
Sales
65 44.0 Increase 60 36.0 No Change 20.0 Decrease 0 10 55 20 Percent
30 40 50 Profits
50 45 40 40.0 Increase 36.0 No Change 0 10 20 Percent
30 30 40 50 Hiring Plans
48.0 Increase 32.0 No Change 20.0 Decrease 0 10 Mobile 35 24.0 Decrease Alabama 20 30 Percent
40 50 60 Capital Expenditures
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas
is solidly positive in the third quarter of 2015. All industry
component indexes in each area are at or above 50, indicating broad improvement. ABCI Montgomery came in on top,
despite losing 2.7 points to 57.4. Mobile’s business community remains strongly optimistic with an area ABCI of 54.3, a
4.8 point decline. Huntsville’s business confidence lost 2.4
points to 55.1, still strong as political and budget uncertainties at the national level are of less concern than in the past.
A slight decline in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI puts the
area’s sentiment below that of Mobile at 53.1.
ABCI by Metro Area Q3 2015
54.8 Alabama 20.0 Increase Birmingham-­‐Hoover 72.0 No Change Huntsville 8.0 Decrease 0 Mobile 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Montgomery 53.1 55.1 54.3 57.4 Percent
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the third
quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of June. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area Chamber
of Commerce and encourage you to return for the fourth quarter 2015 survey September 1-15. For more details on the Alabama Business
Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Research Associate.
Produced in partnership between
T H E C A P S T O N E O F H I G H E R E D U C AT I O N
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H
2 | Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama