TM
M O B I L E
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
Mobile Confidence More Positive as
Hiring Prospects Rise
ABCI Mobile gained 0.9 points to 59.1 looking ahead to the
second quarter of 2015. This is 0.8 points higher than a year ago.
Forecasts for hiring, capital spending and the Alabama economy rose, while other indicators declined from their first quarter
readings. Still, with all indexes well above 50, the area’s economy
should see further improvement this quarter.
Mobile’s industry sales index fell 3.6 points to 60.6. While
51.6 percent of executives in the survey anticipate stronger sales
than last quarter, just 15.2 percent expect a decrease. At 57.6,
the profits index is down 2.5 points, but remains quite positive.
45.5 percent of panelists expect higher profits this quarter and
33.3 percent anticipate no change from first quarter profit levels.
The outlook for hiring has recovered and is now quite optimistic; the index gained 8.4 points to 59.9. Most (63.6 percent)
expect to hire at the first quarter pace and 36.4 percent anticipate
stronger job creation. No panelists predicted decreased hiring.
Capital spending growth should continue to be robust. The area
index of 59.9 is up 1.1 points. Almost 55 percent of area panelists
forecast level investment and 42.4 percent expect an increase.
Most of Mobile’s business community are optimistic about
prospects for the second quarter of 2015. Sales should climb or
remain constant and hiring is forecasted to rise in almost every
industry, particularly construction. Expect new capital investment
in professional, scientific, and technical services. ABCI Mobile is
lowest for retail.
ABCITM Mobile
100
Second Quarter 2015 Outlook
Mobile
Alabama
ABCI
59.1
57.6
National Economy
56.1
56.5
Alabama Economy
60.6
58.4
Industry Sales
60.6
61.5
Industry Profits
57.6
56.8
Industry Hiring
59.8
57.1
Capital Expenditures
59.8
55.4
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red
values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Mobile: State and National Outlook
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
Mobile business executives remain optimistic about prospects
for the U.S. economy despite a 2.0 point drop in the confidence index to a still high 56.1. Almost 79 percent of panelists
anticipate the same or stronger growth, while only 21.2 percent of respondents forecast a worsening national economy.
Mobile’s outlook for the Alabama economy gained 3.8 points
to 60.6. Almost 91 percent of panelists expect statewide
economic growth to be the same or better than last quarter.
National Economic Outlook
90
80
70
Index
60
59.0
51.4
59.1
58.0 56.2 58.3 55.5 58.7 58.2
Better
39.4
Same
39.4
21.2
Worse
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
50
60
40
Alabama Economic Outlook
30
20
48.5
Better
10
42.4
Same
0
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2014
Q4
Q1 Q2
2015
9.1
Worse
0
10
20
30
40
Percent
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Metro Area
Mobile Metro Area:
ABCI Mobile in Context
Sales
Mobile business confidence gained 0.9 points to 59.1 on the
second quarter 2015 survey, coming in 1.5 points higher than
the statewide average. ABCI Mobile has registered 58 or higher in six of the last eight quarters. Area businesses have been
optimistic overall since the second quarter of 2013.
Industry Performance Expectations
Q2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
51.5
Increase
65
33.3
No Change
60
15.2
Decrease
0
10
55
20
30
40
50
60
Profits
50
45
45.5
Increase
40
33.3
No Change
0
10
20
30
30
40
50
60
Hiring Plans
36.4
Increase
63.6
No Change
0.0
Decrease
0
10
20
Mobile
35
21.2
Decrease
Alabama
30
40
50
60
Capital Expenditures
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Alabama
Percent
Q1
2015
53.8
Huntsville
3.0
20
Q1
2014
57.6
Birmingham-Hoover
54.6
No Change
10
Q1
2013
Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metros is solidly
positive going into the second quarter of 2015. All component
indexes in each area are 50 or above, indicating broad improvement. ABCI Montgomery came in on top, edging up 0.7 points to
60.1. Mobile’s business community remains strongly optimistic
with an area ABCI of 59.1, a 0.9 point improvement. A 4.3 point
fall in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI put the area’s sentiment at 53.8,
the lowest of the large metros. Huntsville’s business confidence
rebounded 2.6 points to 57.5, as political and budget uncertainties
at the national level remain of less concern than in past quarters.
42.4
0
Q1
2010
ABCI by Metro Area Q2 2015
Increase
Decrease
Q1
2009
30
40
50
57.5
Mobile
60
59.1
Montgomery
60.1
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the second quarter
2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of March. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area Chamber of Commerce
and encourage you to return for the third quarter 2015 survey June 1-15. For more details on the Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit
cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Research Associate.
Produced in partnership between
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H