TM
H U N T S V I L L E
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
More Stable Business Environment
Continues to Boost Huntsville ABCI
Second Quarter 2015 Outlook
Huntsville area business confidence remains in positive
territory, rising 2.6 points to 57.5. This is the highest value
since first quarter 2011 and compares to a pessimistic outlook
of 44.9 five quarters ago. Every component of the ABCI is
now above 50 and all but hiring are higher than the first quarter
reading.
Sales should improve at most Huntsville businesses.
The sales index rose 4.8 points to 61.3 as 89.1 percent of
panelists expect to see steady or higher sales and just 10.9
percent anticipate a decrease. At 53.5 the profits index is up
1.2 points and suggests more modest improvement. About 75
percent of panelists expect steady or higher second quarter
profits and 25 percent forecast a decrease.
Job growth is likely to pick up in the Huntsville metro area.
The hiring index increased 1.2 points to 59.0. A strong 87.5
percent of firms plan to continue or increase current hiring in
the second quarter of 2015, while only 12.5 percent expect to
hire at a lower rate than last quarter.
Increased capital investment is still indicated by a reading
of 52.3, albeit down 2.4 points from the first quarter. Almost 83
percent of firms plan increased or unchanged spending while
17.2 percent plan to decrease spending over the quarter.
Huntsville area transportation, information, and utilities (TIU)
firms and manufacturers are the most optimistic this quarter.
Despite concerns about profits, transportation firms are most
likely to add jobs, while manufacturing concerns are most likely
to increase capital spending. Hiring should also pick up among
firms in financial activities, TIU, and health services. Retail trade,
health services, and manufacturing all anticipate strong sales.
ABCITM Huntsville
Huntsville
Alabama
ABCI
57.5
57.6
National Economy
59.0
56.5
Alabama Economy
59.8
58.4
Industry Sales
61.3
61.5
Industry Profits
53.5
56.8
Industry Hiring
59.0
57.1
Capital Expenditures
52.3
55.4
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red
values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Huntsville Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
Huntsville business executives have become very optimistic
about the direction of the U.S. economy, posting a 59.0 point
assessment of this quarter’s prospects. This represents a 5.6
point surge in confidence for the national economy. A strong
84.4 percent expect higher or stable growth. Huntsville panelists have upgraded their outlook for Alabama’s economy to
59.8, a 5.1 point jump from last quarter.
National Economic Outlook
46.9
Better
100
37.5
Same
90
Index
70
0
60
45.7 45.8 44.9 50.7
50
40
15.6
Worse
80
53.4
54.9
57.5
49.7
20
30
30
Same
20
Worse
10
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2014
Q4
Q1 Q2
2015
50
60
46.9
42.2
10.9
0
0
40
Alabama Economic Outlook
Better
35.6
Q2 Q3
2013
10
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
60
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Huntsville Metro Area
Huntsville Metro Area:
ABCI Huntsville in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
Huntsville business confidence continued to improve on the
second quarter 2015 survey, up 2.6 points to 57.5. The statewide ABCI rose 0.2 points to 57.6, Huntsville optimism is now
just 0.1 points lower than the statewide index. Huntsville’s
ABCI has been lower than the statewide index since political
and budget issues arose in mid-2011.
Sales
54.7
Increase
65
34.4
No Change
60
10.9
Decrease
0
55
10
20
30
40
50
60
45
Profits
39.1
Increase
40
Huntsville
30
25.0
Decrease
10
20
30
40
50
60
Hiring Plans
42.2
Increase
45.3
No Change
12.5
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20
Percent
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metros is solidly
positive going into the second quarter of 2015. All component
indexes in each area are above 50, indicating broad improvement.
ABCI Montgomery came in on top, edging up 0.7 points to 60.1.
Mobile’s business community remains strongly optimistic with
an area ABCI of 59.1, a 0.9 point improvement. A 4.3 point fall
in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI put the area’s sentiment at 53.8,
the lowest of the large metros. Huntsville’s business confidence
rebounded 2.6 points to 57.5, as political and budget uncertainties
at the national level remain of less concern than in past quarters.
57.6
53.8
Huntsville
17.2
10
Q1
2009
Birmingham-Hoover
59.4
No Change
0
Q1
2008
Alabama
23.4
Decrease
Q1
2007
ABCI by Metro Area Q2 2015
Capital Expenditures
Increase
Alabama
35
35.9
No Change
0
50
57.5
Mobile
30
40
50
60
59.1
Montgomery
60.1
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Huntsville metro area business executives who completed the
second quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of March. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Huntsville
Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the third quarter 2015 survey June 1-15. For more details on the Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Research Associate.
Produced in partnership between
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H