MONTGOMERY
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Montgomery Confidence Remains High
Among the Largest Metro Areas
ABCI Montgomery rose 1.5 points to a solidly confident 55.7
on the first quarter 2016 survey, although 3.7 points below
the 59.4 index registered a year ago. Sales, profits and hiring are expected to remain strong throughout the quarter.
Most Montgomery businesses in the survey are expecting strong first quarter sales growth. After a 2.8 point gain,
the sales index is a very confident 59.2. Almost 45 percent
of respondents forecast an increase in sales, while just 10
percent anticipate a decline. Another 45 percent foresee
steady sales in the coming quarter.
Profits should also post gains. A gain of 2.4 points puts
the profits index at a positive at 55.3. While 55 percent
expect to see only stable profits, 32 percent anticipate increased profits and only 13 percent think profits will decline.
The Montgomery area is likely to continue to build on
job gains seen in recent months. The hiring index rose 1.3
points and remains strong at 55.3. Almost 53 percent of
panelists expect to see job creation continue at last quarter’s pace, while 34 percent are forecasting an increase in
hiring and only 13 percent expect slower job creation.
Capital spending growth will continue as the index
gained 1.7 points to 54.6. About 66 percent of the panel
expect no change from current spending levels, while 26
percent anticipate increased spending, and only 8 percent
expect to cut back on this quarter‘s capital expenditures
compared to last quarter.
100
ABCITM Montgomery
Index
Montgomery
Alabama
ABCI
55.7
53.0
National Economy
54.6
49.2
Alabama Economy
54.6
54.6
Industry Sales
59.2
55.8
Industry Profits
55.3
53.0
Industry Hiring
55.9
53.0
Capital Expenditures
54.6
52.4
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black increase from previous quarter.
Red decrease from previous quarter.
Blue no change.
Montgomery Metro Area:
Business Environment Expectations
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Montgomery area business executives continue to be
optimistic about prospects for the Alabama economy. A
1.7 point gain keeps the state economy index at a confident 54.6.
Montgomery businesses remain confident about the
U.S. economy as well. The 54.6 reading is up slightly to
within one point of last quarter’s index.
National Economic Outlook
34.2 52.6 No Change 80
60
First Quarter 2016 Outlook
Be5er 90
70
Volume 15, First Quarter 2016
58.8 59.0 58.7 59.4 60.1 57.4
13.2 Worse 54.2 55.7
50
0 10 Percent
20 30 40 50 Alabama Economic Outlook
40
31.6 Be4er 30
20
No Change 10
Worse 0
Q2
Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
Q2
2015
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
55.3 13.2 0 10 Percent
20 30 40 50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
60 ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Montgomery Metro Area
Montgomery Metro Area:
ABCI Montgomery in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Business confidence in the Montgomery metro rose to
55.7 on the first quarter 2016 survey. This marks Montgomery’s 12th consecutive quarter of positive confidence. The area ABCI outpaced the statewide index by
2.7 points. With this, the Montgomery area ABCI has
now been higher than the statewide ABCI for 12 straight
quarters.
Sales
Percent
Increase 44.7 No Change 44.7 60 10.5 Decrease 0 55.7
55 53.0
50 10 20 30 40 50 45 Profits
40 31.6 Increase Montgomery 30 13.2 Decrease 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Hiring Plans
34.2 Increase 52.6 No Change 13.2 Decrease 0 10 20 30 40 50 Capital Expenditures
65.8 7.9 0 10 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
positive, if only tepidly so in some places, at the beginning
of 2016. ABCI Mobile took the top spot this quarter, gaining
3.4 points to 57.3. Montgomery’s business community also
remains optimistic with an area ABCI of 55.7, higher than last
quarter by 1.5 points. A 4.0 point gain in Huntsville’s ABCI
puts the area’s sentiment at 52.9. Birmingham-Hoover’s
business confidence fell 0.9 points to 50.5.
ABCI by Metro Area Q1 2016
Birmingham-­‐Hoover No Change Decrease 60 25 Huntsville Mobile 20 53.0 Alabama 26.3 Increase Alabama 35 55.3 No Change 30 40 50 60 Montgomery 50.5 52.9 57.3 55.7 The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Montgomery metro area business executives who completed the
first quarter 2016 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of December. We look forward to continued partnership with the Montgomery
Area Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the second quarter 2016 survey March 1-15. For more details on the Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
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