M O B I L E
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Confidence Positive and Gaining
Thanks to Strong Sales Expectations
ABCI Mobile gained 3.4 points to 57.3 looking ahead to the
first quarter of 2016. Still, this is almost a point lower than
one year ago. Forecasts for the U.S. economy rose, as did
expectations for the state economy. Industry indicators
were uniformly positive - particularly for sales and profits,
both with readings near or above 60. With all indexes in
positive territory, expect the area’s economy to continue to
see improvement this quarter.
Mobile’s industry sales index jumped 8.8 points to 62.5
- the highest among the large metros. While 48 percent of
executives in the survey anticipate stronger sales than last
quarter, just 9 percent forecast a decrease and 43 percent
expect sales to be similiar to last quarter.
At 59.7, the profits index is up 3.6 points and remains
quite positive. Only 9 percent of panelists expect to see
lower profits this quarter. A still strong 43 percent expect
higher profits, while 48 percent expect profit levels to hold
steady.
The outlook for hiring is up by 3.4 points to an easily positive 54.0. Most (57 percent) expect to hire at the
previous quarter’s pace and almost 30 percent anticipate
stronger job creation. Only 14 percent of panelists anticipate slower hiring.
Capital spending growth should continue at a modest pace. The area index of 54.0, up 1.5 points, remains in
positive territory. Almost 57 percent of panelists forecast
steady investment levels and 30 percent expect to increase
spending, while only 14 percent anticipate decreased
spending for the first quarter.
ABCITM Mobile
100
90
Mobile
Alabama
ABCI
57.3
53.0
National Economy
53.4
49.2
Alabama Economy
60.2
54.6
Industry Sales
62.5
55.8
Industry Profits
59.7
53.0
Industry Hiring
54.0
53.0
Capital Expenditures
54.0
52.4
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black increase from previous quarter.
Red decrease from previous quarter.
Blue no change.
Mobile Metro Area:
Business Environment Expectations
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Mobile business executives are seeing improved prospects for the U.S. economy early in 2016 as confidence
has increased 1.6 points to 53.4. Almost 32 percent of
panelists expect stronger U.S. growth and 48 percent
expect a continuation of fourth quarter levels. The
area’s outlook for the Alabama economy similiarly
gained 1.7 points to a very confident 60.2. Less than 5
percent expect statewide economic growth to decline
from last quarter’s levels.
National Economic Outlook
58.3
55.5
58.7
58.2
59.1
54.3
53.9
57.3
47.7 20.5 Worse 0 50
5 10 15 20 Percent
25 30 35 40 45 50 Alabama Economic Outlook
40
30
43.2 Be4er 20
52.3 No Change 10
0
31.8 No Change 70
Index
First Quarter 2016 Outlook
Be4er 80
60
Volume 15, First Quarter 2016
Worse Q2
2014
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
4.5 0 Percent
10 20 30 40 50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Metro Area
ABCI Mobile in Context
Mobile Metro Area:
Industry Performance Expectations
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Mobile business confidence rose 3.4 points to 57.3 on
the first quarter 2016 survey, coming in 4.3 points over
the statewide index. ABCI Mobile has registered 50 or
higher for the last 12 quarters, as area businesses have
now been optimistic since the second quarter of 2013.
Sales
65 47.7 Increase 60 43.2 No Change 55 9.1 Decrease 0 10 20 Percent
30 40 50 Profits
40 43.2 47.7 No Change 20 Percent
30 40 50 Hiring Plans
29.5 Increase 56.8 No Change 13.6 0 10 20 30 Percent
40 50 60 Capital Expenditures
Birmingham-­‐Hoover 56.8 Huntsville 13.6 10 Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas
is positive, if only tepidly so in some places, at the beginning of 2016. ABCI Mobile took the top spot this quarter,
gaining 3.4 points to 57.3. Montgomery’s business community also remains optimistic with an area ABCI of 55.7,
higher than last quarter by 1.5 points. A 4.0 point gain in
Huntsville’s ABCI puts the area’s sentiment at 52.9. Birmingham-Hoover’s business confidence fell 0.9 points to 50.5.
20 53.0 Alabama No Change 0 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ABCI by Metro Area Q1 2016
29.5 Increase Decrease Mobile 30 10 Decrease Alabama 35 9.1 0 53.0
50 45 Increase Decrease 57.3
30 Percent
40 50 60 Mobile Montgomery 50.5 52.9 57.3 55.7 The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the first
quarter 2016 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of December. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area
Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the second quarter 2016 survey March 1-15. For more details on the Alabama
Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
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