H U N T S V I L L E
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Huntsville Area Recovers much of its Lost
Cofidence
Huntsville area business confidence moved back into
positive territory, gaining 4.0 points to 52.9. This is 2.0
points below the area’s confidence reading of a year ago.
Only one of the six components of the ABCI, the national
economy, is below 50 and one component, sales, is solidly
in positive territory.
Sales should improve at most Huntsville businesses.
After a gain of 4.0 points, the sales index posted a robust reading of 57.0. An optimistic 48 percent of panelists
expect to see higher sales and just 20 percent anticipate
a decrease, while 31 percent of businesses expect sales to
remain steady compared to last quarter.
At 51.6, the profits index is up 6.2 points, recovering
about half of the 12.0 point drop seen last quarter. About
31 percent of panelists expect a rise in profits this quarter,
while 44 percent of those polled expect no change from
last quarter’s profits and only 25 percent forecast lower
profits in the near term.
Job growth is likely to improve in the Huntsville metro
area. The hiring index rose 3.6 points to a fairly optimistic
54.3. About 36 percent of firms plan to increase hiring,
while 47 percent expect to hire at the same rate as last
quarter and only 17 percent expect to slow hiring activities
this quarter.
Capital investment is expected to rise to slightly above
current levels as indicated by a positive reading of 52.0.
About 31 percent of firms plan to increase capital spending,
but 48 percent plan no change in spending and another 20
percent expect to decrease spending from last quarter.
ABCITM Huntsville
Huntsville
Alabama
ABCI
52.9
53.0
National Economy
48.4
49.2
Alabama Economy
54.3
54.6
Industry Sales
57.0
55.8
Industry Profits
51.6
53.0
Industry Hiring
54.3
53.0
Capital Expenditures
52.0
52.4
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black increase from previous quarter.
Red decrease from previous quarter.
Blue no change.
Huntsville Metro Area:
Business Environment Expectations
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Huntsville business executives are recovering from
recent uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy. The national economy index is up 2.8 points, but
remains negative at 48.4. While 23 percent of respondents expect improvement in the national economy, 76
percent expect the national outlook to remain the same
or worsen. Alabama’s economy is expected to improve
from last quarter as only 14 percent of the panel expect
the state economy to worsen.
National Economic Outlook
Be5er 90
No Change 60
50
50.7
53.4
49.7
54.9
57.5
55.1
48.9
52.9
40
50.0 26.6 0 10 20 Percent
30 40 50 31.3 54.7 No Change 20
14.1 Worse 10
Q2
2014
Q3
Q4
Q1
2015
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2016
60 Alabama Economic Outlook
Be4er 30
0
23.4 Worse 70
Index
First Quarter 2016 Outlook
100
80
Volume 15, First Quarter 2016
0 10 Percent
20 30 40 50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama | 1
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Huntsville Metro Area
Huntsville Metro Area:
ABCI Huntsville in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015
Huntsville business confidence regained some ground
on the first quarter 2016 survey, rising 4.0 points to 52.9.
With the statewide ABCI up to 53.0, Huntsville optimism
is now just 0.1 point below the state index. National political and budget issues again crop into the local economic picture.
65 Sales
48.4 Increase 31.3 No Change 0 10 20 30 40 Percent
50 45 40 31.3 Increase 35 Alabama
43.8 No Change 25.0 Decrease 5 10 15 20 25 30 30 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent
35 40 45 50 Hiring Plans
35.9 Increase 46.9 No Change 17.2 Decrease 0 10 20 30 Percent
40 50 Birmingham-­‐Hoover 48.4 No Change 20.3 Decrease 5 10 15 20 53.0 Alabama 31.3 Increase Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
positive, if only tepidly so in some places, at the beginning
of 2016. ABCI Mobile took the top spot this quarter, gaining 3.4 points to 57.3. Montgomery’s business community
also remains optimistic with an area ABCI of 55.7, higher
than last quarter by 1.5 points. A 4.0 point gain in Huntsville’s ABCI puts the area’s sentiment at 52.9. Birmingham-Hoover’s business confidence fell 0.9 points to 50.5.
ABCI by Metro Area Q1 2016
Capital Expenditures
0 52.9
50 Profits
0 53
55 20.3 Decrease Huntsville
60 25 Percent
30 35 40 Huntsville Mobile 45 50 Montgomery 50.5 52.9 57.3 55.7 The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Huntsville metro area business executives who completed the
first quarter 2016 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of December. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Huntsville
Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the second quarter 2016 survey March 1-15. For more details on the Alabama
Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
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