TM
M O N T G O M E R Y
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
First Quarter 2015 Outlook
Montgomery Confidence on Top among
Metro Areas
ABCI Montgomery rose 0.7 points to 59.4 on the first
quarter 2015 survey, its highest reading of the last four
quarters and 4.0 points above the 55.4 registered a year
ago. Although capital spending growth is expected to
slow, sales and hiring should pick up markedly this quarter.
Most Montgomery businesses in the survey are expecting strong first quarter sales growth. The sales index
ticked up 6.0 points to 64.1; 61.5 percent of respondents are
forecasting an increase, while just 10.3 percent anticipate
a decline. Profits should also post solid gains. The index
is up 0.8 points to 60.3 and 53.8 percent expect higher
earnings growth.
During first quarter 2015, the Montgomery area is likely
to build on the job gains seen in recent months. The hiring
index climbed 3.6 points to 59.0 and the 43.6 percent of
panelists expecting to see job creation pick up includes
10.3 percent forecasting a strong increase. Another 43.6
percent plan to hire at the same pace as last quarter.
Capital spending growth could slow though as the index
slipped 6.3 points to 54.5. About 46 percent expect no
change and a net 18.0 percent of executives anticipate
increasing investment.
Optimism is high among all Montgomery industries
represented in the first quarter survey except retail trade,
where panelists expect flat sales and investment as well
as weaker profits and hiring. Strongest job growth could
come from firms in manufacturing, professional services,
and financial activities. The pace of capital investment
is most likely to pick up in manufacturing and financial
activities.
ABCI
TM
Montgomery
Montgomery 59.457.4
National Economy
57.756.4
Alabama Economy
60.957.4
Industry Sales
64.160.6
Industry Profits
60.357.8
Industry Hiring
59.056.3
Capital Expenditures
54.555.9
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Montgomery Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q1 2015 compared to Q4 2014
Montgomery area business executives continue to be
the most optimistic about prospects for the Alabama
economy. The state economy index is up 0.1 point to
60.9 and is over 3.5 points higher than other metro
area expectations for the state. The U.S. economy is
also expected to show solid expansion, with the index
increasing 0.3 points to 57.7.
National Economic Outlook
90
Remain the Same
80
Worse
70
59.4
56.6 54.3 55.4 58.8 59.0 58.7
53.3
60
50
44.3
38.4
53.9
7.7
0
10
20
30
40
30
Worse
10
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
2015
50
60
46.2
5.1
0
Q1
60
48.7
Remain the Same
20
50
Alabama Economic Outlook
Better
40
0
Alabama
ABCI
Better
100
Index
10
20
30
Percent
40
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Montgomery Metro Area
Montgomery Metro Area:
ABCI Montgomery in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q1 2015 compared to Q4 2014
Business confidence in the Montgomery metro rose to
59.4 on the first quarter 2015 survey, its highest level
since mid-2006. The area ABCI has been close to 59
over the last fourth quarters. However, the Alabama
ABCI rose faster this quarter so that ABCI Montgomery
is now 2.0 points higher.
Sales
60
61.5
Increase
28.2
No Change
55
10.3
Decrease
0
50
10
20
30
40
50
60
45
40
Profits
53.8
Increase
35
30.8
No Change
30
15.4
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
Increase
43.6
No Change
43.6
50
60
12.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Capital Expenditures
10
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
30
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
solidly positive at the start of 2015. All component indexes
in each area are above 50, indicating broad improvement.
ABCI Montgomery came in on top, edging up 0.7 points to
59.4. Mobile’s business community remains strongly optimistic with an area ABCI of 58.2, despite a modest 0.5 point
decline. A 4.2 point jump in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI
put the area’s sentiment almost even with Mobile’s at 58.1.
Huntsville’s business confidence rebounded 5.2 points to
54.9, as political and budget uncertainties at the national
level abated.
57.4
58.1
54.9
Huntsville
20
Q1
2011
Birmingham-Hoover
17.9
0
Q1
2008
Alabama
46.2
No Change
Q1
2007
ABCI by Metro Area Q1 2015
35.9
Increase
Decrease
Montgomery
25
Hiring Plans
Decrease
Alabama
40
50
60
58.2
Mobile
Percent
59.4
Montgomery
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Montgomery metro area business executives who completed the
first quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of December. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Montgomery Area Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the second quarter 2015 survey March 1-15. For more details on the
Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H