TM
M O B I L E
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
First Quarter 2015 Outlook
Mobile Confidence Positive but Lower as
Hiring Prospects Dip
ABCI Mobile slipped 0.5 points to 58.2 looking ahead to
the first quarter of 2015, coming in 2.0 points higher than
a year ago. Forecasts for the U.S. economy and sales rose,
while other indicators declined from their fourth quarter
2014 readings. Still, with all indexes above 50, the area’s
economy should see broad improvement this quarter.
Mobile’s industry sales index edged up 0.2 points to
64.2, highest among the metros. While 59.5 percent of
executives in the survey anticipate stronger sales than
last quarter, just 5.4 percent forecast a decrease. At 60.1,
the profits index is down 0.4 points, but remains quite
positive—51.4 percent of panelists expect higher earnings
growth this quarter and 32.4 percent anticipate no change
from fourth quarter profit levels.
The outlook for hiring is lower but mildly optimistic; the
index fell 5.0 points to 51.4. Most (62.2 percent) expect
to hire at the fourth quarter pace and a net 5.4 percent
anticipate stronger job creation. Capital spending growth
should continue to be robust. The area index of 58.8, down
1.7 points, is the highest of the metros. Almost 57 percent
forecast level investment and a net 27.0 percent expect an
increase.
Most segments of Mobile’s business community are
optimistic about their overall prospects early in 2015. Sales
should climb broadly and profits are forecasted to rise in
many industries. Job creation and new capital investment
could be focused on construction; manufacturing; and
transportation, information, and utilities firms. The ABCI
is lowest for healthcare and other services businesses at
around 51.
ABCITM Mobile
100
58.257.4
National Economy
58.156.4
Alabama Economy
56.857.4
Industry Sales
64.260.6
Industry Profits
60.157.8
Industry Hiring
51.456.3
Capital Expenditures
58.855.9
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Mobile Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q1 2015 compared to Q4 2014
Mobile business executives are seeing much improved
prospects for the U.S. economy early in 2015. Confidence jumped 6.4 points to 58.1; 48.7 percent of panelists anticipate stronger growth and 32.4 percent
expect no change from fourth quarter levels. The
area’s outlook for the Alabama economy slipped 2.5
points to 56.8. Almost 84 percent expect statewide
economic growth to be the same or better than last
quarter.
National Economic Outlook
48.7
32.4
18.9
Worse
70
60
48.7
51.4
59.0 58.0 56.2 58.3 55.5 58.7 58.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
Alabama Economic Outlook
40
43.2
Better
30
20
Remain the Same
10
Worse
0
Alabama
ABCI
Remain the Same
80
Index
Mobile Better
90
50
Q1
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
2015
40.5
16.2
0
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Mobile Metro Area
Mobile Metro Area:
ABCI Mobile in Context
Industry Performance Expectations
Q1 2015 compared to Q4 2014
Mobile business confidence slipped 0.5 points to 58.2 on
the first quarter 2015 survey, coming in 0.8 points ahead
of the statewide average. ABCI Mobile has registered 58
or higher in five of the last seven quarters. Area businesses have been optimistic overall since the second
quarter of 2013.
65
Sales
59.5
Increase
35.1
No Change
60
5.4
Decrease
0
55
10
20
30
40
50
60
50
45
Profits
51.4
Increase
40
32.4
No Change
0
10
20
30
40
50
30
Q1
2007
60
Hiring Plans
62.2
No Change
16.2
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Capital Expenditures
20
Percent
30
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
57.4
58.1
54.9
Huntsville
10
Q1
2011
Birmingham-Hoover
8.1
0
Q1
2010
Alabama
56.8
No Change
Decrease
Q1
2009
ABCI by Metro Area Q1 2015
35.1
Increase
Q1
2008
Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
solidly positive at the start of 2015. All component indexes
in each area are above 50, indicating broad improvement.
ABCI Montgomery came in on top, edging up 0.7 points
to 59.4. Mobile’s business community remains strongly
optimistic with an area ABCI of 58.2, despite a modest 0.5
point decline. A 4.2 point jump in Birmingham-Hoover’s
ABCI put the area’s sentiment almost even with Mobile’s at
58.1. Huntsville’s business confidence rebounded 5.2 points
to 54.9, as political and budget uncertainties at the national
level abated.
21.6
Increase
Mobile
35
16.2
Decrease
Alabama
40
50
60
58.2
Mobile
59.4
Montgomery
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the first
quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of December. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area
Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the second quarter 2015 survey March 1-15. For more details on the Alabama
Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H