TM
H U N T S V I L L E
Alabama Business Confidence Index | Center for Business and Economic Research | The University of Alabama
More Stable Business Environment Boosts
Huntsville ABCI
Huntsville area business confidence moved back into positive territory, rising 5.2 points to 54.9. That’s the highest
value since first quarter 2012 and compares to a pessimistic
outlook of 44.9 a year ago. Every component of the ABCI
is now above 50 and higher than its fourth quarter reading.
Sales should hold steady or improve at most Huntsville
businesses. The sales index rose 4.7 points to 56.5—43.1
percent of panelists expect to see higher sales and just 15.5
percent anticipate a decrease. At 52.2, the profits index
is up 4.8 points and suggests more modest improvement.
About 43 percent of panelists expect no change from
fourth quarter earnings and a net 8.7 percent forecast an
increase.
Job growth is likely to pick up in the Huntsville metro
area. The hiring index jumped 8.5 points to 57.8; a net 25.9
percent of firms plan to increase hiring early in 2015, while
43.1 percent expect to hire at the same rate as last quarter. Increased capital investment is indicated by a reading
of 54.7, up 6.2 points. Almost 57 percent of firms plan no
change in spending and a net 15.5 percent plan to see an
increase over last quarter.
Huntsville area manufacturers are the most optimistic
this quarter and the most likely to add jobs and increase
capital spending despite concerns about profit growth.
Hiring should also pick up among firms in professional
services, healthcare, financial activities, and other services.
Professional services businesses anticipate strong improvement in sales, but slightly lower profits. Healthcare and
financial activities concerns are positive on every industry
indicator this quarter.
100
53.4
56.4
Alabama Economy
54.7
57.4
Industry Sales
56.5
60.6
Industry Profits
52.2
57.8
Industry Hiring
57.8
56.3
Capital Expenditures
54.7
55.9
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black values indicate an increase from previous quarter.
Red values indicate a decrease from previous quarter.
Blue values indicate no change.
Huntsville Metro Area:
Business Enviroment Expectations
Q1 2015 compared to Q4 2014
Huntsville business executives are feeling optimistic
about the direction of the U.S. economy for the first time
in almost three years. The national economy index is up
6.3 points to 53.4 and about 76 percent expect higher or
stable growth. Alabama’s economy is generally expected to perform the same or better than last quarter, with
the state index rising 0.7 points to 54.7.
40.4
45.7 45.8 44.9
50.7
53.4
49.7
54.9
39.7
24.1
0
10
30
40
50
60
35.6
31.0
Better
20
Remain the Same
10
Worse
Q1
20
Alabama Economic Outlook
30
0
36.2
Worse
70
Index
54.957.4
National Economy
Remain the Same
80
60
Alabama
ABCI
Better
90
40
Huntsville National Economic Outlook
ABCITM Huntsville
50
First Quarter 2015 Outlook
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
2015
53.4
15.5
0
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
60
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Huntsville Metro Area
ABCI Huntsville in Context
Huntsville Metro Area:
Huntsville business confidence rebounded on the first
quarter 2015 survey, rising 5.2 points to 54.9. With the
statewide ABCI up 3.2 points, Huntsville optimism is now
just 2.5 points lower. The area ABCI has been below
the statewide index since national political and budget
issues mounted in mid-2011.
65
Industry Performance Expectations
Q1 2015 compared to Q4 2014
Sales
43.1
Increase
60
41.4
No Change
55
15.5
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
50
45
Profits
40
32.8
Increase
43.1
No Change
30
24.1
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
50
41.4
43.1
No Change
15.5
Decrease
0
10
20
30
40
50
Huntsville
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
60
Percent
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
54.9
Huntsville
13.8
20
Q1
2013
58.1
Birmingham-Hoover
56.9
10
Q1
2012
57.4
Alabama
No Change
0
Q1
2011
Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
solidly positive at the start of 2015. All component indexes
in each area are above 50, indicating broad improvement.
ABCI Montgomery came in on top, edging up 0.7 points
to 59.4. Mobile’s business community remains strongly
optimistic with an area ABCI of 58.2, despite a modest 0.5
point decline. A 4.2 point jump in Birmingham-Hoover’s
ABCI put the area’s sentiment almost even with Mobile’s at
58.1. Huntsville’s business confidence rebounded 5.2 points
to 54.9, as political and budget uncertainties at the national
level abated.
29.3
Decrease
Q1
2010
ABCI by Metro Area Q1 2015
Capital Expenditures
Increase
Q1
2009
60
Hiring Plans
Increase
Alabama
35
30
40
50
58.2
Mobile
60
59.4
Montgomery
52.0
54.0
56.0
58.0
60.0
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Huntsville metro area business executives who completed the
first quarter 2015 ABCI survey during the first two weeks of December. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Huntsville
Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the second quarter 2015 survey March 1-15. For more details on the Alabama
Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI. Analysis provided by Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst.
Produced in partnership between
C E NT E R FOR
B U S I NE SS AND
E CONOMI C
RE S E ARC H