CULVERHOUSE COLLEGE OF COMMERCE AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Winter 2000 / Volume 69, Number 1
In this issue:
Economic Outlook 2000 Update
3
Alabama Housing Affordability Index
6
Alabama’s Metropolitan Areas:
Driving the State’s Economy
8
Retailing in Alabama, 1997
9
Selected Economic Indicators
11
Alabama Nonagricultural Employment
11
THE UNIVERSITY OF
ALABAMA
B U S I N E S S
This report is also available in PDF format on the
Internet at
http://cber.cba.ua.edu
The Center for Business and Economic Research
has available at this site downloadable data on
various topics including population, retail trade,
and employment. Research briefs are also
available.
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Alabama Business
Associate Dean for Research
and Technology
Carl Ferguson
Associate Director
Samuel Addy
Assistant Directors
Deborah Hamilton
Annette Watters
Authors
Ahmad Ijaz
Leonard Zumpano
Carolyn Trent
Graphic Design
Sherry O’Brien
Other Contributors
Kathryn Rivers
Holly Clark
Sun-ja Park
LaKeisha Martin
Alabama Business is a quarterly publication
of the Center for Business and Economic
Research, Culverhouse College of
Commerce and Business Administration,
The University of Alabama.
Articles reflect the opinions of the authors,
but not necessarily those of the staff of the
Center, the faculty of the Culverhouse
College of Commerce, or the administrative officials of The University of Alabama.
For information on the Center for Business
and Economic Research, the Culverhouse
College of Commerce and Business
Administration or The University of
Alabama:
http://cber.cba.ua.edu
http://www.cba.ua.edu
http://www.ua.edu
CBER
Economic Outlook
2000 Update
February, 2000
United States
Background and Outlook
The current economic expansion, which began in
April 1991, is now ranked as the longest running
economic expansion in U.S. history since 1854.
It has surpassed the previous longest running
106-month expansion of March 1961 to
November 1969.
The most recently released estimates for the
fourth quarter GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
and consumer spending show no signs of a
slowing economy. The U.S. economy has now
grown at or around a 4 percent annual rate for
four years without significant increases in overall
price levels. The fourth quarter 1999 GDP
growth rate came in at 5.8 percent for an average
annual rate of 4.3 percent for all of 1999, the
same as 1998. However, a difference between
1998 and 1999 was seen in consumer spending.
Economic growth in 1999 was primarily driven
by consumer spending, which increased at a ten
year high rate of 6.9 percent, versus a 5.9 percent
increase in 1998. Consumer spending accounted
for about 74 percent of overall economic growth
in 1998 and close to 90 percent in 1999.
Despite significant increases in energy prices and
interest rates, consumers show no signs of closing
their pocketbooks, as evidenced by measures of
consumer confidence. The Consumer Sentiment
Index, published by The University of Michigan,
rose to 112 in late January, up from 111.4 in
early January, and from 105.4 in late December.
The Consumer Expectations Index also increased
in late January to 108.6 from 107.7 in early
January and from 101.1 in late December.
Another measure, the Consumer Confidence
Index, published by The Conference Board, rose
to a record high of 144.7 in January.
Herein lies the greatest risk to the current
economic expansion: total household debt has
increased from approximately 85 percent of
personal income in 1992 to about 103 percent in
1999. U.S. private sector debt, including both
individuals and corporations, currently stands at
132 percent of GDP. Consumer spending on
imports has spiraled the trade deficit from $109
billion in 1996 to about $325 billion in 1999,
with the deficit expected to reach almost $360
billion in 2000. There is nothing wrong with the
debt, as long as debt payments can be sustained.
However, two major factors, higher interest rates
and energy prices, could have an effect on curtailing the current levels of consumer spending.
Based on current economic conditions and
assumptions, the U.S. economy is expected to
grow at approximately 3.2 to 3.5 percent in 2000.
However, there is a chance that if the Fed is
unable to slow down the current levels of
economic activity through higher interest rates,
we could very well see another year of around 4
percent growth. The interest rate forecast calls
for a 30 year bond rate around 6.5 percent with
30 year fixed rate mortgages at approximately 8
percent. Overall employment is expected to
increase by 1.2 percent, adding a little over 1.5
million new jobs.
Southeast Region
The Southeast region in this case includes
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina,
South Carolina and Tennessee. After growing at
a little over 5 percent in 1999, the region’s overall
economic growth is expected to slow to around 4
percent in 2000. The region as a whole created
almost 630,000 jobs in 1999, an increase of
approximately 3 percent over the previous year.
The forecast for 2000 calls for total nonagricultural employment to increase by 2.8 percent.
The region will add close to 490,000 new jobs.
Georgia and Florida are among the fastest
growing states in the nation as well as in the
region. These two states together account for
around 60 percent of new job growth in the
six-state region, and almost 52 percent of the
total value of goods and services produced.
Although North Carolina’s economy is as large
as that of Georgia’s, in 1999 North Carolina
lagged behind Georgia in new jobs and real
output growth, primarily because manufacturing
3
accounts for almost 31 percent of North
Carolina’s economy. Manufacturing was one of
the slowest growing sectors last year, particularly
in job creation. Manufacturing employment has
been adversely affected by intense global
competition, automation, and overcapacity.
Alabama
Consumer spending and strong demand for
residential and commercial construction drove
the state’s economic growth in 1999. The
short-term interest rate cuts executed by the
Federal Reserve Bank in 1998 kept both mortgage
interest rates and inflation in check and provided
a strong incentive for consumers to spend. The
year 1999 also set records in motor vehicle and
housing sales. Housing sales in Alabama for
both new and used units set record highs, mainly
due to low mortgage rates.
Most of the job growth in the state was
concentrated in its 11 metropolitan areas. There
are 45 counties in the state not associated with
metropolitan areas, and almost all of them saw a
decline in overall employment. Most of the
decline was in manufacturing industries, mainly
apparel plants. Four major economic
sectors—services, trade, construction, and state
and local government—accounted for most of the
statewide job growth, creating almost 30,000 new
jobs. However, due to job losses, the state’s net
job growth for 1999 was a little over 21,000. The
trade sector, primarily retail trade, created almost
9,400 new jobs and was one of the fastest
growing sectors in the state. Residential and
commercial construction added almost 4,900
new jobs. Services accounted for over 10,600
new jobs, while employment in state and local
government went up by 3,200.
higher interest rates;
slightly higher inflation rates;
high levels of consumer debt;
significantly higher energy prices; and
higher import prices.
•
•
•
•
•
On the positive side, Asian and European
economies are improving. Alabama
manufacturing firms exporting to these countries
could see their sales volumes increase. However,
exporters will have to deal with the relatively
high exchange rate value of the U.S. dollar.
Ahmad Ijaz
Index of U.S. Consumer Sentiment
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Source: University of Michigan.
Alabama Gross State Product
Annual Percent Change
(1992 Dollars)
6
5
4
3
2
Growth in Alabama’s gross state product (GSP),
the total value of goods and services produced in
the state, has lagged behind other southeastern
states. Real GSP in Alabama increased 3.5
percent in 1999, reaching $102 billion.
In 2000 the state’s economy is expected to
expand by approximately 3 percent. A net gain
of 21,000 new jobs is anticipated. Major risks to
this forecast for Alabama in 2000 include:
4
1
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Center for Business and Economic Research,
The University of Alabama.
Coming soon:
Economic Abstract
of Alabama 2000
The newly updated Economic Abstract of Alabama
2000 will be coming out this spring. This 500+
page book is a comprehensive reference of
demographic and economic information on
Alabama and its counties.
Topics range from funding for education by
district, to retail sales by county, to a variety
of statistics on employment, health care,
manufacturing, and population. Many of the
data items are presented at national, state, MSA,
and county or city levels and cover several years
to facilitate comparisons and trend analysis.
If you would like to receive a brochure and
ordering information, email your name and
mailing address to [email protected] or write
to the Center for Business and Economic
Research, The University of Alabama, Box
870221, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0221.
ALABAMA ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK 2000
The Alabama Economic Outlook 2000 examines
current economic conditions and trends and their
likely effects on the national and Alabama
economies in the coming year.
The Alabama forecast focuses on the short term
outlook for output and employment in the state by
sector and presents a look at state revenues. Trends
in the state’s metropolitan areas are discussed.
The Alabama Economic Outlook 2000 is the 20th in an annual series produced by the Center
for Business and Economic Research. Copies are $18 each.
Please make checks payable to The University of Alabama and send with name and
address to:
Center for Business and Economic Research
The University of Alabama
Box 870221
Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0221
5
Alabama Housing
Affordability Index
Fourth Quarter, 1999 and
Year-end Summary
The Alabama Housing Affordability Index (HAI)
finished the year on a very positive note. The
statewide HAI rose to 164.1 in the fourth quarter
of 1999, up over 12 percentage points from the
third quarter. Interestingly, the third quarter was
the only quarter in 1999 for which housing
affordability in Alabama actually declined.
Because of the significant increase in housing
affordability during the fourth quarter, the
Alabama HAI finished the year at 161.5, up 3.67
percent from 1998, which is the highest the index
has been since 1993.
The increase in fourth quarter housing affordability occurred despite an increase in mortgage
interest rates of 14 basis points, which raised the
blended effective rate to 7.66 percent during the
last quarter of the year. For all of 1999 the
mortgage interest rate only increased by 30 basis
points or a little over a quarter of 1 percent. This
is a remarkably small increase in interest rates
when you consider the fact that the Federal
Reserve raised short-term interest rates three
times last year with successive quarter-point
interest rate adjustments.
The stability in the blended mortgage interest
rate reflects a number of factors. First and
foremost, the inflation rate has been remarkably
tame throughout what has now become the
longest economic expansion on record. As a
result, the inflation premium built into long-term
mortgage rates has also been small. Another
consideration has been the very substantial
increase in the size of the secondary mortgage
market. The growth in the use of mortgage
backed securities continues to provide substantial
liquidity to the primary mortgage market,
insuring an adequate and affordable supply of
mortgage funds for homebuyers. Last, the
increased availability and growing consumer
acceptance of adjustable rate mortgages has
allowed consumers to take advantage of mortgage
6
interest rates that in some cases are much lower
than 30 year fixed rate mortgage loans.
A similar, but smaller gain in housing affordability was also recorded for the United States
during the last three months of 1999. Nationwide, the housing affordability index rose from
127.1 in the third quarter to almost 130 in the
fourth quarter.
The Statewide Housing Affordability Index is
calculated as the ratio of the state’s actual median
family income and the family income required to
purchase the median priced home in the state.
An index number of 100 indicates that a family
earning the median income has just enough
buying power to qualify for a mortgage on the
median priced, existing single family house, given
standard underwriting criteria. The higher the
index number, the better, indicating that housing
is more affordable.
With the publication of the fourth quarter
housing affordability we have added a new metro
area to our index number calculations. During
the last quarter Lee County has been reclassified
as the Auburn/Opelika Metropolitan Area by the
U.S. Census Bureau. Since Lee County had been
included in the HAI, this reclassification does
not cause any substantive change in the
calculation or comparability of the index. The
state now has a total of 11 instate Metro Areas.
Within Alabama, housing affordability increased
in every metro area except Birmingham. All of
the state’s metro areas’ median home prices fell
during the fourth quarter, more than offsetting
the effects of rising mortgage interest rates in all
the MAs but Birmingham. In some metro areas
home prices fell dramatically during the last three
months. Anniston, Florence, and Gadsden all
reported double digit declines in median home
prices. In the Decatur and Tuscaloosa Metro
Areas, median home prices fell by 9.95 percent
and 8.64 percent, respectively. For market savvy
homebuyers, there appear to be some very
attractive home prices out there.
At the county level, only Baldwin County
reported an increase in median home prices.
This reflects the very robust market for vacation
and second homes in this region of the state. For
the year ending in December, median home
prices were up almost 10 percent in Baldwin
County. Even here, however, there are some
indications that the real estate market is
beginning to slow. Median home prices rose by
less than a quarter of one percent during the last
three months of 1999.
Part of the fall in home prices reflects the
normal, seasonal slowdown in the housing
market that generally occurs during the winter.
However, it does appear that the Federal
Reserve’s attempt at slowing the economy is
beginning to have an effect. December sales of
existing homes in Alabama declined from earlier
months and selling time had begun to lengthen
toward the end of the year. Housing is generally
the first sector to suffer when interest rates
increase. With the Fed’s most recent interest rate
increase, the fourth in the last six months, and
expectations of more rate hikes to come in the
future, we look to additional slowing for the
housing market in 2000.
Leonard V. Zumpano
Alabama Housing Affordability Index
Fourth Quarter 1999 and Third Quarter 1999
Monthly
Payment
7.66%
Metro Area
Median
Income
Median Loan/Value
Price
80%
Annual Required
Payment Income
HA Index
HA Index
th
rd
4 Quarter 3 Quarter
Anniston
Auburn/Opelika
Birmingham
Decatur
Dothan
Florence
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile-MA *
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
$39,500
43,700
47,900
46,500
40,600
40,200
35,900
54,600
40,700
43,700
42,400
$72,633
112,658
127,183
92,767
89,000
79,100
60,383
102,567
118,342
97,332
109,817
$58,107
90,127
101,747
74,213
71,200
63,280
48,307
82,053
94,673
77,865
87,853
$413
640
723
527
506
449
343
583
672
553
624
$4,952
7,681
8,671
6,325
6,068
5,393
4,117
6,993
8,068
6,636
7,487
$19,808
30,724
34,685
25,299
24,272
21,572
16,468
27,972
32,274
26,544
29,949
199.4
142.2
138.1
183.8
167.3
186.4
218.0
195.2
126.1
164.6
141.6
177.5
129.3
139.5
167.8
158.4
169.5
184.8
190.5
125.8
159.8
131.2
Baldwin County
Cullman County
Marshall County
Mobile County
Tallapoosa County
40,700
38,200
38,300
40,700
37,400
144,267
80,300
69,300
82,417
106,025
115,413
64,240
55,440
73,933
84,820
820
456
394
525
602
9,836
5,475
4,725
6,301
7,229
39,344
21,899
18,899
25,204
28,915
103.4
174.4
202.7
161.5
129.3
105.1
152.5
194.6
156.5
103.8
Statewide Average
US Average
42,114
47,175
94,100
133,333
75,280
535
6,416
25,663
164.1
129.7
151.8
127.1
Sources: The Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center, Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business
Administration, The University of Alabama and The Alabama Association of REALTORS. National data
supplied by the Federal Housing Finance Board, and the Research Division of the National Association of
REALTORS.
* Mobile-MA, which is made up of Baldwin and Mobile counties, is atypical because of the higher concentration of
vacation properties located in Baldwin county. Because these vacation homes have much higher prices than
owner-occupied properties, the HAI understates housing affordability for the Mobile Metro Area.
7
Alabama’s
Metropolitan Areas:
These metropolitan areas accounted for over
24,000 net new jobs in 1999, while the state’s 45
nonmetro counties suffered a loss of about 5,400
jobs. Unemployment for the year fell below the
Alabama average of 4.4 percent in eight of the
eleven MSAs.
The economic strengths of Alabama’s eleven
metropolitan areas (MSAs) combined to drive
the state’s economy in 1999. Over 70 percent
of Alabama residents lived in the state’s 22
metropolitan counties, which were home to 76.5
percent of all nonagricultural jobs for the year.
Each metropolitan area presents a unique
economic mix and faces its own challenges as it
builds on its strengths and works to overcome its
weaknesses throughout 2000.
Driving the State’s Economy
Carolyn Trent
Alabama Metropolitan Area Strengths and Weaknesses in 1999
8
MSA
Strengths
Weaknesses
Anniston
Growing services employment,
strong retail sales growth
Loss of government and
manufacturing jobs
Auburn-Opelika
Strong retail sales growth
Stagnant labor force with
little job growth
Birmingham
Balanced growth—over 1,000
new jobs in each of services,
trade, FIRE, and construction
Tight labor market—lack of
trained high-tech workers
Decatur
Nearing completion of Boeing
plant with increased hiring; strong
median family income gains
Slow job growth—about 17 percent
of workers employed outside the
area
Dothan
Growing trade employment and
strong retail in-shopping
Net loss of manufacturing jobs;
weak income growth
Florence
Rebound in manufacturing
employment
Above-average unemployment; large
number of workers commuting out of
area to work
Gadsden
Growing services employment;
gains in retail employment and
sales
High unemployment due to manufacturing losses; little growth in alreadylow median family income
Huntsville
Strong services job growth, esp.
technology-related services
Job losses in manufacturing, esp. electrical and nonelectrical machinery
Mobile
Sizeable employment gains in
retail trade and services; strong
median family income growth
Job losses in nondurables manufacturing, esp. paper and allied products
Montgomery
Highest nonagricultural employment growth of MSAs; strong
gains in services and state and
local government
Job losses offset gains in already-small
manufacturing sector
Tuscaloosa
Retail trade employment growth
strong; construction up
Stagnant services sector; weak employment gains in manufacturing
10,000 residents. Stores selling motor vehicles
and parts were second in frequency, at 6.6 stores
per 10,000 people. In contrast, general
merchandise retailers, where stores tend to be
large, numbered just 2.1 establishments per
10,000 Alabamians. Alabama’s retail landscape
looked a little different from the nation’s, with
the state having quite a few more gas stations and
motor vehicles and parts dealers and somewhat
more general merchandise, furniture, and health
and personal care stores relative to its population.
Both food and beverage stores and sporting
goods, hobby, book and music stores were less
prevalent in the state than in the nation as a
whole.
Retailing in
Alabama,
1997
Alabama counted 231,665 workers employed in
20,163 retail establishments in 1997, according to
the 1997 Economic Census: Retail Trade, Geographic
Area Series, Alabama. The Census Bureau has
released an economic census series every five
years since 1967. The 1997 data are the first
based on the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) rather than the
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system.
This change results in a lack of comparability
between 1997 economic census data and data for
prior years. In particular, eating and drinking
places have been removed from retail trade to a
new Accommodations and Food Services
classification.
General merchandise stores reported the largest
number of workers per store in Alabama at 52.
Almost 21 percent of the state’s retail workers
were employed in 909 general merchandise
establishments in 1997. Another 21 percent
worked in grocery and other food and beverage
stores which averaged 23 workers per store.
Dealers in motor vehicles and parts employed
12.5 percent of Alabama’s retail workers.
There were an average of almost 47 retail
establishments per 10,000 Alabamians in 1997,
above the U.S. average of 42. As shown in
Table 1, gasoline service stations are the most
readily accessible retail business, with 7.2 per
Sales of motor vehicles and parts are big business
in Alabama, accounting for 27.4 percent of all
Table 1. Alabama Retail Sales by Kind of Business, 1997
Kind of Business
Food & Beverages
General Merchandise
Clothing & Accessories
Furniture/Home Furnishings
Motor Vehicles & Parts
Gasoline Stations
Building Materials, Garden
Equipment & Supplies
Health & Personal Care
Electronics/Appliances
Sporting Goods, Hobby,
Book, & Music
Miscellaneous Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Total
Number of
Establishments
Sales
($1,000)
Number of
Employees
Sales Pct.
Employee
Sales per
of Total Pct. of Total Employee ($)
Estab. per
10,000 Pop.
2,073
909
2,476
1,252
2,837
3,129
$5,737,396
5,678,146
1,927,246
1,020,449
10,018,482
3,646,109
47,883
47,697
20,397
8,674
28,935
19,549
15.7%
15.5%
5.3%
2.8%
27.4%
10.0%
20.7%
20.6%
8.8%
3.7%
12.5%
8.4%
$119,821
119,046
94,487
117,645
346,241
186,511
4.8
2.1
5.7
2.9
6.6
7.2
1,660
1,611
671
3,472,144
1,653,524
669,763
17,751
14,021
4,253
9.5%
4.5%
1.8%
7.7%
6.1%
1.8%
195,603
117,932
157,480
3.8
3.7
1.6
929
1,983
633
683,378
1,198,651
918,039
6,716
10,277
5,512
1.9%
3.3%
2.5%
2.9%
4.4%
2.4%
101,754
116,634
166,553
2.1
4.6
1.5
20,163
36,623,327
231,665
100.0%
100.0%
158,087
46.6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1997 Economic Census: Retail Trade, Geographic Area Series, Alabama .
9
retail sales in 1997, slightly above the national
average of 26 percent. Per employee sales at
these stores amounted to $346,241, well above
the second-highest category of building materials
and garden equipment and supplies stores with
sales averaging $195,603 per employee. Sales per
employee were lowest at clothing retailers,
averaging $94,487. Food stores accounted for a
15.7 percent share of 1997 Alabama retail sales as
measured by the economic census. General
merchandise stores were close behind at 15.5
percent.
Payroll per employee averaged $14,598 across the
state in 1997. However, employees include both
full and part-time workers, so this does not
represent the average wage of a full-time
employee. Nationally, average payroll per
employee amounted to $16,954.
Alabama’s metropolitan areas (MSAs) range in
population size from just over 100,000 in
Gadsden to an estimated 900,000 in
Birmingham. This is reflected in metro area sales
as a share of the state total shown in Table 2.
Almost 25 percent of all sales statewide in 1997
were made in the Birmingham MSA, with
another 12.6 percent transacted in Mobile.
Retail sales per capita give an indication of the
strength of each area's retail sector, both in
keeping the business of local residents at home
and in attracting shoppers from outside the area.
The Dothan metro area in southeast Alabama is
able to draw shoppers from neighboring
Alabama, Florida, and Georgia counties with the
result that per capita retail sales averaged $2,624
above the statewide average of $8,473. And sales
in the Birmingham, Florence, Montgomery, and
Tuscaloosa MSAs were more than $1,000 above
the Alabama average in 1997.
The detailed report, 1997 Economic Census:
Retail Trade, Geographic Area Series, Alabama is
available online at the Census Bureau website
(www.census.gov). On the opening screen under
Business click on Economic Census. Select
Retail Trade, then Alabama to access the .pdf
file. Alabama’s 264-page report includes data by
detailed retail sector for the state, metropolitan
areas, counties, and places. Summary state and
metropolitan area tables are accessible under
E-Data on the CBER web site (cber.cba.ua.edu).
Carolyn Trent
Table 2. Retail Sales in Alabama MSAs, 1997
MSA
Anniston
Birmingham
Decatur
Dothan
Florence
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Alabama
Sales
($1,000)
Sales per
Capita ($)
Sales Pct.
of State
Number of
Establishments
Number of
Employees
Payroll per
Employee ($)
981,985
9,000,690
1,253,091
1,489,975
1,308,311
737,764
3,015,307
4,619,850
3,146,913
1,543,208
8,377
9,984
8,847
11,097
9,542
7,111
9,041
8,765
9,854
9,597
2.7%
24.6%
3.4%
4.1%
3.6%
2.0%
8.2%
12.6%
8.6%
4.2%
578
3,844
683
838
735
452
1,479
2,482
1,504
790
6,747
52,390
7,147
9,203
8,461
4,935
19,814
30,710
19,978
10,852
13,715
15,843
14,715
15,501
14,175
13,362
14,705
14,747
14,697
13,910
36,623,327
8,473
100.0%
20,163
231,665
14,598
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1997 Economic Census: Retail Trade, Geographic Area Series, Alabama .
10
Selected Economic Indicators
1995
Gross State Product
92$ (millions)
Percent Change
Gross Domestic Product
96$ (billions)
Percent Change
Consumer Price Index
Percent Change
Producer Price Index
Percent Change
Alabama Unemployment
Rate (percent)
U.S. Unemployment
Rate (percent)
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
88,763.000 91,915.000 95,306.697 98,949.510 102,378.732 105,369.121
3.8
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.5
3.0
7,537.050
2.7
7,813.175
3.7
8,165.075
4.5
8,516.275
4.3
8,882.502
4.3
9,166.742
3.2
2.81
2.92
2.34
1.56
2.14
2.54
1.9
2.6
0.4
-0.9
1.4
0.6
6.3
5.1
5.1
4.2
4.4
4.6
5.6
5.4
4.9
4.5
4.2
4.4
Alabama Nonagricultural Employment
Annual Percent Change
Total Nonagricultural Employment
2.6
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.1
1.1
Manufacturing
Nondurable
Food
Textiles
Apparel
Paper
Printing, Publishing
Chemicals
Rubber, Plastics
Other Nondurable
Durable
Lumber
Primary Metals
Fabricated Metals
Nonelectrical Machinery
Electrical Machinery
All Trans. Equipment
Stone, Clay, & Glass
Other Durable
Mining
Construction
Trade
Services
Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Transportation, Communications,
and Public Utilities
Government
State and Local
Federal Civilian
1.4
-0.3
0.8
1.3
-3.7
-1.7
3.2
1.0
1.9
3.2
3.2
5.6
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.9
0.8
5.4
0.2
2.8
5.6
4.0
4.9
1.6
-2.4
-5.1
-2.2
-2.8
-16.7
-0.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
3.9
0.4
3.5
0.1
-2.2
3.9
2.9
-4.1
2.8
-4.2
-1.5
7.6
2.5
3.4
4.3
-0.5
-2.4
-0.9
-0.6
-10.6
0.5
1.1
2.4
0.0
3.0
1.3
2.5
2.6
-0.0
4.4
-2.8
0.4
4.4
-1.7
-2.1
4.1
1.9
5.2
3.8
-0.4
-2.0
1.5
-1.8
-9.9
-1.4
1.4
2.0
0.7
4.0
1.0
2.8
0.0
-1.2
3.3
-1.2
3.3
-1.8
-1.1
1.5
4.8
2.8
4.7
3.2
-2.1
-3.5
0.4
-0.8
-12.6
-4.2
1.1
-1.7
-4.4
-3.3
-0.8
2.6
-0.2
-6.7
-6.1
-4.3
2.1
-0.3
-0.5
-2.6
4.8
2.1
2.4
1.7
-1.5
-2.3
0.6
-0.6
-9.1
-5.0
0.8
-1.1
-1.4
-1.5
-0.8
1.7
-0.9
-1.7
-0.1
-2.6
0.9
-0.5
-0.0
-4.7
3.0
1.6
2.6
1.7
2.8
-0.8
-0.2
-3.9
1.4
-0.1
0.4
-2.5
0.4
1.0
1.3
-0.5
1.1
0.3
0.6
-1.2
1.6
0.4
1.1
-3.2
1.2
0.2
0.7
-3.1
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and Center for Business and Economic Research,
The University of Alabama.
11
Announcement!
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA
Alabama Business, formerly Alabama Business &
Economic Indicators, will no longer be a brief
four-page newsletter published monthly, but rather
an in-depth, 12-page quarterly. Our new quarterly
format will allow us to produce a more complete
overview of Alabama’s economic and demographic
development. Each issue will feature economic
outlook updates, housing affordability, key
economic indicators, metropolitan area and/or
population information, retail trade and other
timely articles. This publication as well as past
issues of Alabama Business & Economic Indicators can
be found on our web site at:
http://cber.cba.ua.edu.
Alabama Business is a quarterly publication of the Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse
College of Commerce, The University of Alabama.
All correspondence should be addressed to: Editor, Alabama Business, Center for Business and Economic
Research, The University of Alabama, Box 870221, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0221.
The University of Alabama
Center for Business & Economic Research
Box 870221
Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0221
Address service requested.
Nonprofit Organization
U.S. Postage Paid
Permit Number 16
Tuscaloosa, AL 35401