ASDC Annual Meeting
Carolyn Trent, Socioeconomic Analyst
Alabama State Data Center
Center for Business and Economic Research
November 2, 2012
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration
The University of Alabama
What is the FSCPE?
Similar arrangement to SDC with MOA between
state FSCPE representative and the Census
Bureau.
Formalized in the early 1970s to respond to
demand for state and sub-state annual
population estimates.
CBER works with Larry Childers of ADECA.
Annual training meeting at Census Bureau and
spring meeting in conjunction with PAA.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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FSCPE responsibiliites
Provide state and county-level data to the Census
Bureau for use in annual estimates.
Population in group quarters by location
Births and deaths by sex for counties
Review Census Bureau estimates before release
and provide comment.
Total population and components of change for state and
counties (Nov.-Dec.)
State, county, subcounty housing unit estimates (Feb.)
Subcounty population estimates (April)
Annual building permits data (May)
Work with Census Bureau on other data issues
related to estimates.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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Postcensal vs Intercensal Estimates
Postcensal estimates—for decade following a
census; use for July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019
Build on Census 2010 count, modified by differences
from boundary changes to create estimates base
New vintage every year replaces prior years
Intercensal estimates—estimates for 2000 to
2009 were recalculated using interpolation to end
up at the Census 2010 count.
On October 9 the following were released:
− Intercensal estimates for cities and towns
− Intercensal housing units for states and counties
− Updates to state/county intercensal estimates by
demographic characteristic
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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Population Estimates
Alabama uses the Census Bureau’s annual
population estimates. CBER supplies data for
these estimates through the FSCPE.
Census estimates:
Calculated as of July 1 each year
Produced at the state, county, subcounty levels
Used as controls for ACS data
County series uses administrative records data;
state is calculated as sum of counties
Subcounty estimates (places, balance of county)
look at housing unit change
Entire series is recalculated each year
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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State/County Estimates
Based on administrative records
Births and deaths annually from FSCPE and NCHS
Net domestic migration: under 65 population from federal
income tax returns, military movements. Changed IRS records
processing from return-based to person-based
Net domestic migration: 65+ from Medicare enrollees
Net international migration from ACS, Census, other sources
Group Quarters
Begin with Census count of GQs by county
Census data by type of GQ, but we don’t have a list of GQs
that were counted
Annual updates of GQ populations sent in by FSCPE. Also
report new GQs.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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Subcounty/Housing Unit Estimates
Housing units estimated annually for every county and
subcounty geography
Begin with Census 2010 base
Add estimate of new construction in prior year, using Census
Bureau building permit data. Assume 6-month lag from permit
date to completion.
For areas without permits, estimate non-permitted construction
from annual Survey of Construction (SOC)
Add new mobile home placements
Subtract estimate of housing loss using percentages derived
from 1999-2007 American Housing Survey (AHS)
Use these housing unit estimates to distribute county estimate
totals to subcounty geographies
2011 subcounty estimates did not use the usual method, but
were extrapolated from the 9-month change between July 1,
2009 and April 1, 2010.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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Census Bureau Population Estimates
Schedule
Note: All releases below are July 1, 2012 estimates.
U.S. and state population and components of change
12/12
County population and components of change
04/13
Metropolitan and micro area population and
components of change
04/13
State population by age/sex/race/Hispanic origin
05/13
County population by age/sex/race/Hispanic origin
05/13
State and county housing unit estimates
06/13
Place/county subdivision population
06/13
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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Challenges to Estimates
Challenges were suspended in 2010, but will
resume with the release of 2012 county and
subcounty population estimates.
The criteria for challenges has changed and it will
now be more difficult to make and win a challenge.
The method cannot be challenged, only the data
inputs.
For county estimates, this means that administrative
records must be challenged (births, deaths, migration)
At the subcounty level, housing unit counts, vacancy
rates, GQs can be challenged
Subcounty challenges will reallocate population
within a county.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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So what can we do to assure the best
possible estimates for Alabama?
Let CBER know about any new (sizeable) Group Quarters
locations in your area. We currently do not report nursing
home populations annually, but would like to start.
Help improve building permits coverage and reporting in
Alabama.
Provide local knowledge concerning natural disasters and
their impact on the housing stock (e.g., loss, demolitions,
share of permits that are for rebuilding).
Stress the importance of completing the annual Boundary
and Annexation Survey sent to incorporated places.
Estimates for places with boundary changes are revised
back to the previous Census.
CQR challenges to boundaries, geocoding, or coverage are
due by June 1, 2013. Changes are recorded and rolled into
the next estimates vintage.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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Building Permits Data
Having good coverage and reporting of building permits is
important to getting the best possible subcounty population
estimates.
The Survey of Construction is managed by the Census Bureau.
Most jurisdictions report annually, with a selected subsample
reporting monthly.
According to the Census Bureau, 69 percent of Alabama’s population lives in permit-issuing places. Only Mississippi and Arkansas
have lower percentages. In 26 states, the percent is 99-100.
Alabama also has the problem that many jurisdictions issue
permits outside their legal boundaries.
If a permitting jurisdiction does not report by the deadline, their
permits are imputed from the last available year.
For areas that do not issue permits, housing units are allocated
from the regional Survey of Construction based on their relative
shares of housing units in the last Census.
SDC follows up with nonrespondents each year and FSCPE is
now reviewing the building permits data annually.
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, The University of Alabama
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