ABCI
MOBILE
ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Volume 15, Second Quarter 2016
Mobile Confidence Down but Positive
Thanks to Strong Sales Expectations
Second Quarter 2016 Outlook
ABCI Mobile lost 2.1 points to 55.2 looking ahead to the second
quarter of 2016. This is almost four points lower than a year ago.
Forecasts for the U.S. economy fell slightly, as did expectations
for the state economy. Industry indicators were, nevertheless,
almost uniformly positive - particularly for sales and profits at 60.0
and 57.1. Only the capital expenditures index is negative, but just
barely so, at 49.3. Still, with all other indexes above 50, expect the
area’s economy to continue to see improvement this quarter.
Mobile’s industry sales index fell 2.5 points to a still optimistic
60.0. While 60 percent of executives in the survey anticipate
stronger sales than last quarter, just 17 percent forecast a decrease and 23 percent expect sales similar to last quarter.
At 57.1, the profits index is down 2.5 points but remains quite
positive. Only 23 percent of panelists expect to see lower profits
this quarter. A still strong 51 percent expect higher profits, while
26 percent expect profit levels to remain steady.
The outlook for hiring is down just 0.4 points to remain easily
positive at 53.6. Most - 46 percent - expect to hire at the previous
quarter’s pace and over 34 percent anticipate stronger job creation. Only 20 percent of panelists anticipate slower hiring.
Capital spending growth may slowly decline. The area index of
49.3, down 4.7 points, is in neutral territory. Almost 63 percent of
panelists forecast steady investment levels and 20 percent expect
to increase spending, while only 17 percent anticipate decreased
spending for the second quarter.
Mobile
Alabama
ABCI
55.2
55.1
National Economy
52.9
50.9
Alabama Economy
58.6
56.4
Industry Sales
60.0
59.8
Industry Profits
57.1
56.3
Industry Hiring
53.6
54.5
Capital Expenditures
49.3
53.0
Index above 50 indicates positive outlook.
Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.
Black increase from previous quarter.
Red decrease from previous quarter.
Blue no change.
Mobile Metro Area:
Business Environment Expectations
Q2 2016 compared to Q1 2016
Mobile business executives are seeing steady prospects for
the U.S. economy early in 2016 as confidence decreased 0.6
points to 52.9. Over 34 percent of panelists expect stronger
U.S. growth and 46 percent expect a continuation of first
quarter levels. The area’s outlook for the Alabama economy
similiarly lost 1.7 points but remains at a very confident 58.6.
Fewer than 12 percent of panelists expect statewide economic
growth to decline from last quarter’s levels.
ABCITM Mobile
National Economic Outlook
100
90
Better
80
NoChange
70
Index
60
55.5
58.7
58.2
59.1
34.3
45.7
54.3
53.9
55.2
Percent
20.0
Worse
57.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
60
70
50
Alabama Economic Outlook
40
30
42.9
NoChange
10
0
45.7
Better
20
Q3
Q4
2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
2015
Q4
Q1
Q2
2016
Percent
11.4
Worse
0
10
20
30
40
50
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ALABAMA BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Mobile Metro Area
ABCI Mobile in Context
Mobile Metro Area:
Industry Performance Expectations
Mobile business confidence fell 2.1 points to 55.2 on the
second quarter 2016 survey, coming in just 0.1 point over the
statewide index. ABCI Mobile has registered 50 or higher for
the last 13 quarters, as area businesses have now been optimistic since the second quarter of 2013.
Q2 2015 compared to Q1 2016
Sales
65
60.0
Increase
60
22.9
NoChange
17.1
Decrease
0
55
Percent
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
50
45
Profits
40
51.4
Increase
0
10
20
30
2007
Percent
22.9
Decrease
30
40
50
60
45.7
0
10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Percent
20.0
Decrease
2009
Business sentiment in Alabama’s four largest metro areas is
positive. ABCI Montgomery again came in on top, after gaining
1.6 points to 57.3 on strong sales prospects. Mobile’s business
community also remains optimistic about sales with an area ABCI
of 55.2, despite a 2.1 point decline. The largest gain of any metro
area, 3.8 points in Birmingham-Hoover’s ABCI puts the area’s
sentiment at 54.3. Huntsville’s business confidence gained 2.2
points to 55.2.
34.3
NoChange
2008
70
Hiring
Increase
Mobile
35
25.7
NoChange
Alabama
20
30
40
50
60
70
ABCI by Metro Area Q2 2016
Capital Expenditures
20.0
Increase
17.1
Decrease
0
10
Percent
20
30
40
50
60
55.1
AllMetros
55.1
Birmingham-Hoover
62.9
NoChange
Alabama
70
54.3
Huntsville
55.2
Mobile
55.2
Montgomery
57.3
The Center for Business and Economic Research would like to thank all Mobile metro area business executives who completed the second quarter 2016
ABCI survey during the first two weeks of March. We look forward to a continuing partnership with the Mobile Area Chamber of Commerce and encourage you to return for the third quarter 2016 survey June 1-15.
For more details on the Alabama Business Confidence Index™, visit cber.cba.ua.edu/ABCI.
Analysis provided by Gregg Bell, Ph.D., Socioeconomic Analyst.
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